BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

A deluge of post-budget polling has slightly improved Labor’s position, and maintained a primary vote surge for “others”.

The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.

Some further polling nuggets:

• Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.

• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.

• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,393 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 48
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  1. More trouble for Driscoll, he seems to be Mr dirty tricks.

    THE LNP is investigating a potential major privacy breach involving thousands of people receiving unsolicited phone calls in an exercise organised by outcast MP Scott Driscoll.

    Evidence uncovered by The Courier-Mail shows Mr Driscoll’s family company was paid to conduct “push polling” for candidates in the Moreton Bay Regional Council elections, including Mayor Allan Sutherland, before and after the state election last year.

    It is alleged the company made unauthorised use of the party’s internal database to conduct the polling.

  3. Howard- Core and non core promises
    Abbott- written and non written promises
    Barnett- Literal and non literal promises

    This is the poor Liberal standard.
    And Abbott stated he would model himself on Barnett

  4. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/22/us-italy-economy-poverty-idUSBRE94L0AX20130522

    The consequences of two decades of mismanaged fiscal and monetary policies, and the failure to enact economic reforms:

    (Reuters) – Millions of Italians cannot afford to heat their homes properly or eat meat as their country is racked by recession and soaring unemployment, said a report which found the number of people considered seriously deprived had doubled in the past two years.

    The findings from national statistics institute ISTAT underline the scale of the challenge faced by the new coalition government of Enrico Letta, which has vowed to stimulate growth and tackle a youth jobless rate of almost 40 percent.

    A recession that has lasted almost two years has taken a heavy toll on ordinary Italians who are increasingly digging into their savings, ISTAT said in its annual report.

    Italy has the highest level in Europe of young people who are neither in education nor employment, at 23.9 percent, the study showed. In Italy’s impoverished south, one in three people aged 15-29 fell into this group.

    The number of people living in families considered to be seriously deprived has doubled in the past two years to 8.6 million, or about 14 percent of the population, ISTAT said.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    From the leader for this paywalled Laura Tingle article it looks like she’s having a shot at the Opposition.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/howard_blamed_for_structural_deficit_7SqgyQ9fg1t7N4SnEdrgaP
    And the bookies start to eat their own!
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tom-waterhouse-is-ruining-industry-betting-rival-says-20130522-2k1ex.html
    The Libs are really starting to let their hubris expose their true character.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/opposition-doesnt-believe-treasury-claims-of-independence-20130522-2k032.html
    I suspect that there were no engineering calculations made before erecting the hoarding that significantly increased the side profile area of the structure.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/freak-winds-may-have-led-to-fatal-brick-wall-collapse-20130522-2k1oj.html
    An unexpectedly tame report of Hockey’s NPC stint from Peter Martin. Maybe there will me more later.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hockey-plays-it-cool-on-chances-of-any-tax-cuts-20130522-2k1d7.html
    MUST SEE! Alan Moir doesn’t hold back though!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope is obsessing about the Skywhale.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg is cynical about Rudd’s SSM epiphany.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe with the Opposition’s budget direction.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  6. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/oecd-warns-australia-to-join-currency-war/

    It’s pleasing to note the OECD supports views expressed here on the exchange rate, particularly by this bludger 🙂

    Senior Australian economist Adrian Blundell-Wignall, special adviser to the OECD’s secretary-general, said yesterday that:

    “Australia is in a very unfortunate position…Having done the right thing, having no capital controls, Australia is now facing the whole avalanche of world investors seeking out Australian assets…the yen had been strong not because interest rates there (in Japan) were high, but because it was one of the countries that wouldn’t do anything to push its exchange rate down”.

    Quantitative easing had created a gigantic bubble in global bond markets, whose bursting would cause enormous damage, and had pushed equity markets “above fair value”, he said.

    “The idea we can have free or cheap money forever is ridiculous,” he said, suggesting that quantitative easing had helped restore global banks to profitability without fixing serious flaws in the global banking system.

    Stressing that Australia’s big banks were sound relative to their global US and European peers, the former Reserve Bank official argued that unweighted capital ratios were still far too low and that the new global banking accord, known as Basel III, was in effect toothless.

    “Banks use their internal models to reduce their ‘risk-weighted assets’, which leaves them massively leveraged,” Mr Blundell-Wignall said. The benchmark minimum 8 per cent capital ratio was based on risk-weighted rather than total assets.

    Macrobusiness add their own comments…

    Hmmm, good stuff from a very smart guy. I’ll only add that internal risk-weighting models are precisely why Australian banks are also woefully under-capitalised. We are not different, sadly.

  7. WESTERN Australia’s post-election austerity mode will include a review of the public sector, with Premier Colin Barnett refusing to rule out job cuts.

    This from the Liberal Premier who in the last few weeks gave his media staff 40-50% payrises with the Manager getting a $84,000 payris. She may have to work weekends was the reasoning. Thats one of hell of a penalty rate

    Cops, doctors, nurses, firemen, ambos, police officers, waitresses, bar staff etc all work weekends and the Liberals under Abbott want to attack penalty rates

  8. Boerwar – given your interest in the climate

    HOUSEHOLD rubbish will be converted into electricity after the final environmental approvals were made for the State’s first large scale waste-to-energy plant.

    Environmental Protection Authority has given final approval has been granted for New Energy’s Boodarie Waste-to-Energy and Materials Recovery facility, near Port Hedland.

    The plant is expected to process up to 255,000 tonnes of waste a year, producing 15.5 megawatts of power.

  9. And from the Land of the Free –

    It pays to assume nothing about people you are interviewing.
    http://americablog.com/2013/05/wolf-blitzer-asks-atheist-oklahoma-tornado-survivor-if-she-thanks-the-lord.html
    A good compilation of this week’s examples of where religion clashes with rights.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/22/another-upchuckable-week-the-place-where-religion-meets-your-rights-3/
    Some cartoons on the Oklahoma tornado.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/05/22/cartoons-of-the-day-oklahoma-tornado/
    Elizabethg Warren takes no prisoners. No wonder the Repugs were railing against her appointment!
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/05/22/1210962/-Warren-asks-bullseye-questions-of-Treasury-Secretary-Lew-Can-we-have-50-more-like-her-please

  10. Good Morning

    Sickening is the word PM David Cameron used. Wholeheartedly agree with him about killing in London.

    Meanwhile at home

    “@TheKouk: Sloan embarrasses herself saying it’s a “howler” for the PBO to exclude stimulus measures from estimate of structural budget balance! OMG!”

  11. “…Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%.”

    Why ‘surprisingly’? No-one inside New England would be surprised by this result. For the 18,000,000 time, take it from New Englanders: Tony Windsor will be comfortably re-elected. This was, is and will never be in doubt.

    All the grandees outside the electorate should just STFU about the ‘race’ in New England. You don’t live here. You don’t get it.

  13. guytaur
    The revolting Judith Sloan needs to bone up on the difference between systematic and special causes. Shit managers always get the two mixed up and respomd inappropriately.

  16. So the alternative Treasurer thinks Treasury make up the figures, and the alternative Prime Minister, the man with the $800,000 mortgage, tells us there’s a ‘Budget Emergency’ (at his place, maybe there is!)

    If these two ever get to manage the economy, it’ll be like watching toddlers trying to make brownies.

    “The Coalition are the better economic managers because shut up that’s why!!!”

  17. Briefly, Sloan is not an ideologue in academic’s dress. She’s an idealogue in thug’s dress. Have you ever seen a live TV interview with her? She talks over people, shouts them down, mis-speaks words and doesn’t present any evidence of joined-up thinking. All her utterances are isolated thought bubbles without coherent links to the next or previous.

    She promotes junk economics using junk language and has the manner and bearing of every workplace bully you’ve ever encountered.

    How she ever got an academic appointment is a profound mystery to me.

  20. WESTERN Australia’s post-election austerity mode will include a review of the public sector, with Premier Colin Barnett refusing to rule out job cuts.

    This from the Liberal Premier who in the last few weeks gave his media staff 40-50% payrises with the Manager getting a $84,000 payris. She may have to work weekends was the reasoning. Thats one of hell of a penalty rate

    Cops, doctors, nurses, firemen, ambos, police officers, waitresses, bar staff etc all work weekends and the Liberals under Abbott want to attack penalty rates

    Barnett went to the last election knowing this as the Government but without the integrity or courage to tell the truth, in fact he did the opposite and made a lot of promises he had no intention of ever keeping.

    He is possibly the least capable and least honest liberal leader, including Tony Abbott and that is a really hard poll to top.

  21. Sickening is the word PM David Cameron used. Wholeheartedly agree with him about killing in London.

    Cameron Boris J have both used the term terrorist attack to describe this murder. It doesn’t rate as a terrorist attack on what I’ve seen so far. Typical of politicians under siege to resort to scaring the crap out of the general public. Cameron is desperate to distract people from his increasing loss of authority in the party and loss of respect in the community. Boris is now being seen as the clown he has always been.

  22. So the alternative Treasurer thinks Treasury make up the figures, and the alternative Prime Minister, the man with the $800,000 mortgage, tells us there’s a ‘Budget Emergency’ (at his place, maybe there is!)

    It would be nice if a journalist asked Hockey how he would ever frame a budget if he didn’t believe Treasury, would he call in a third or fourth tier accounting firm, perhaps Barnaby could do the projections himself?

  23. a good article comparing the #NBN and #Fraudband

    Ironically, Mr Turnbull has now warmed to many of the supposedly terrible elements he described in over three years of anti-NBN scripts he provided to Coalition MPs to read in late-night extended sittings and extra parliamentary sitting days at taxpayer expense.

    Mr Turnbull has now completely adopted:

    • an off-budget NBN funding model, selling bonds to fund the construction, then repaying them from wholesale revenue from end-users (however, the Coalition’s preferred FTTN will attract smaller revenues);

    • a monopoly wholesaler role for NBNCo, whereby the competitive market of retail service providers must lease access exclusively from NBNCo in order to sell broadband to customers (NBN monopoly would sink Telstra’s then $2.56 share price, which has since soared past $4);

    • use of wireless broadband for just 4 per cent (he previously advocated wireless for everything); and

    • Labor’s view that by the 2020s every urban premises will need future-proof optical fibre (but he won’t offer to build it).

    The Australian Financial Review recently opined that the Coalition has now adopted 90 per cent of Labor’s plan, and should logically adopt the smartest 10 per cent — laying optical fibre to premises.

    Apart from two editorials quoting the Turnbull script, and NBN nay-sayers Grahame Lynch and Kevin Morgan, every mainstream and technical column in recent weeks has said exactly the same thing: we should build fibre to premises now.

    http://www.newsweekly.com.au/article.php?id=5583#.UZ01SKIluAk.twitter

  24. Al Dente
    Posted Thursday, May 23, 2013 at 6:58 am | Permalink
    Briefly, Sloan is not an ideologue in academic’s dress. She’s an idealogue in thug’s dress. Have you ever seen a live TV interview with her? She talks over people, shouts them down, mis-speaks words and doesn’t present any evidence of joined-up thinking. All her utterances are isolated thought bubbles without coherent links to the next or previous.

    She promotes junk economics using junk language and has the manner and bearing of every workplace bully you’ve ever encountered.

    But apart from that she’s ok isn’t she? 😆

    Joking aside, I think that pretty much sums up what I have seen of her.

  25. WeWantPaul 20

    I’m confident that Abbott can outdo Colon and will do if elected….Colon will be so far behind he wont rate a mention and may even get the title “Honest Colon” (sic) when compared to Abbott hashahaha

  27. Tom

    Listen to one of the perpetrators telling a passer by his motivation and you’ll change your mind, maybe..

    ITV has it.

  28. Tom Hawkins
    Posted Thursday, May 23, 2013 at 7:30 am | PERMALINK
    Sickening is the word PM David Cameron used. Wholeheartedly agree with him about killing in London.

    Cameron Boris J have both used the term terrorist attack to describe this murder. It doesn’t rate as a terrorist attack on what I’ve seen so far.

    Well they have ticked the box for the terror part. Hacking to death a human in the middle of the street while screaming allahu akbar. Who would have thought that would put the wind up the Poms.

  31. Aussie Achmed

    I am not so sure about the Honest Colon tag, perhaps CoLIAR might be more contemporary.

    The other similarity to Howard is the administering of unpopular policies in the first year or two of a new term, such as the massive increase in electricity prices last time round.

    The outrage was palpable back then but not a big issue at election time.

  32. NBN – One of the things never mentioned is the cost to business of the Coalition plan. Most small businesses in particular lease or rent their premises. By not taking fibre to their premises they will be disadvantaged. The cost of getting fibre to the premises is a cost to them. They will either have to cover the cost themselves, and need to negotiaite with the owner and somehow get the owner to pay and then pay an increased rent/lease.

    While there is no doubt fibre will go passed a lot of busnesses there is no possibilty in many regional/remote areas and even outer suburbs.

    So much for caring out small business. Liberal lip service

  33. I agree with BK about the cause of the Grocon wall collapse (not designed for wind loading as required by building codes) but question the use of the term “freak wind”.

    Inner Melbourne was hit by freak winds around the time a brick wall at the CUB site in Swanston Street collapsed killing three young pedestrians in March.
    Bureau of Meteorology data obtained by Fairfax Media shows a gust of wind just before 3pm – the estimated time of the collapse – at 102 km/h. The average wind speed for a 10-minute period at 3pm was 83 km/h, regarded by the bureau as a strong wind able to dislodge roofing from homes and limbs from trees.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/freak-winds-may-have-led-to-fatal-brick-wall-collapse-20130522-2k1oj.html#ixzz2U3sXC62p

    That wind, while strong, is certainly within the range that an exposed structure would have to be designed to withstand. Over a two or more year period, the ods of experiencing that wind strenght at least once would be high. Meanwhile the waters are already being muddied over approvals, whcih should be clear cut: a Council permit is needed.

    The complexity of the task before the Coroner is daunting: Mr Guy has responsibility for big-picture planning of the CUB site, while the council has authority over building and the interface of building with the public domain.

    The more this straightforward case is dragged out, the more pessimistic of seeing justice I get.

  34. Morning All

    Good to see further confirmation of the structural nature of the deficits we’re facing – Howard and Costello spending like drunken sailors to kick it all off. People loved getting the tax cuts and family payments at the time – seems we’re about to get the bill 🙁

    Hockey is a clown

    Awful events in England, in some ways it’s surprising it hasn’t happened more frequently though. The world has certainly changed.

  35. Betting
    THE body representing Australia’s commercial television industry has denied it struck a deal with Communications Minister Stephen Conroy to allow gambling companies to continue promoting odds during sports broadcasts.

    Fairfax Media reported on Wednesday that Mr Conroy had “personally set out a framework” to aid free TV draft amendments to the television code of practice.

    “Today’s claim in the Sydney Morning Herald and the Age that ‘the Minister for Communications brokered a deal with the television industry to allow betting companies to continue spruiking live odds’ is incorrect,” Free TV’s statement read.

    “The draft code was developed by Free TV, and reflects the position of its members, not the government

    I reckon I’ll believe them before any Murdoch propaganda

  37. shellbell

    Yes he is a raving lunatic. That alone doesn’t rate this as a terrorist attack. I’d need to see evidence of the planning that went into the attack and what chain of command there is in place before I’d be prepared to call this terrorism.

    Words like hero and miracle have been devalued to the point where they are almost worthless. I think the term ‘terrorism’ shouldn’t be used to describe every violent attack in the community.

  39. The higher electricity prices rise the less will be the small percentage of total cost that could be ascribed to the carbon “tax”. If Abbott talks about a 10% reduction in the price of electricity in light of a repealed carbon tax he is plainly talking out of his arse! Not to mention deliberately setting out to deceive.

  41. The saddest thing with the attack in London is that the media will play right into their hands – seems obvious that it was all about sending a message and the media will play that message over and over again.

    Anyways – off to work, have a great day all

  43. May / posted by Andy Snelling

    Tony’s Tactics

    According to Tony Abbott in his 2013 budget reply, “government’s first job is not to make your life harder.”

    Unfortunately for Mr Abbott, he may have made his own life harder in a speech that rested on emotive clichés and blatant generalisations.

    He promised to cut taxes, increase spending and still balance the budget is impossible to keep.

    The Leader of the Opposition is conservative, but certainly not stupid, so one can assume he is going to be meticulous in his choice of words.

    So how do we explain the fallacies?
    =================================================
    http://rtrfm.com.au/story/tonys-tactics/

    =========================================================
    my comment below
    ==============================================
    there is an audio to list to ‘ with a professional person speaking
    very good to listen to

    =====================================

  44. womble

    as I said, reports about Conroy’s intentions vary. However, if you read some of the counter stories, they make it very clear that caucus hasn’t arrived at a position yet and that Julia Gillard is strongly in favour of more restrictions.

    So some people here will have to decide whether they trust Gillard more than Conroy- or, alternatively, we could actually wait and see what the final decision is before rushing to judgement.

  45. bk
    on top of that THE GST ANOTHER 10 PERCENT FROM ABBOTT
    so if he says the power bills would be lower
    how would that be

    cannot they add up

  47. Tom

    Terrorist attack or not. Sickening is an apt description

    “@JustinSmith3AW: BREAKING We understand their will be an announcement from Ford and union in next hour. Ford shutting down production in Australia @3AW693”

  48. would some one do the sums here on a basket
    of groceries say 200 dollars

    and add the extra 10 per cent GST
    keep in mind it would be on all items
    like milk bread meat , vegetable ect.

    ————–then power of course and health
    cannot work out how health and education can have gst to on them un less the PBS IS GOING
    and schools ARE PRIVATISED

    =======================
    one example large tin of coffee 17 dollars’
    plus another 10 percent, plus what the seller will add
    for their inconvenience of new skilling up their computers’
    so may be another 10 =cent on each item

    what do the experts here think
    please
    people need to see things in black and white.
    so would the new gst be 25 percent all up
    help

  49. gaffy @ 26,

    Button solar panels just builds on the old 70’s technology where they built calculators in to bras and jock straps.

    The premise was to help people count on their own supports.

  50. BK 39 LOTO is deceiving the people with his reduced power costs claim. He can repeal the carbon legislatio but thats all he can do,
    He cannot force the corporations to reduce their prices. . I’m confident they will have a reason why they can’t/won’t…

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