BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

A deluge of post-budget polling has slightly improved Labor’s position, and maintained a primary vote surge for “others”.

The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.

Some further polling nuggets:

Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.

• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.

• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,393 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition”

  1. AA you are really taking the wanker award for the night.

    Go to a POLLING BOOTH is you are an undriving, internet-free, mobile phone devoid moron.

    Where did I say you couldn’t?

  2. [ (1) You go to Post Office, Centrelink, etc etc.
    (2) You register your polling details with the person behind the desk using Photo ID.
    (3)Person behind desk confirms you are who you say you are, details INCLUDING your mobile phone number get sent to AEC.

    (4)AEC… just like a bank.. mails you out a login ID,
    (5)you then either have the AEC post password in a seperate letter or you have to call AEC to confirm details and get temp password.

    (6)You login… change your password.

    (7)Now on election day you login to AEC, login to your account and vote the way you see fit… the vote however does not go through yet.

    (8)The way you voted is sent to you via SMS including a special AEC generated confirmation number.
    (9)You then type this number into the confirmation code box on the website and your vote is done and confirmed. ]
    Sound complicated you might want to make an ap

  3. [2287
    Sean Tisme

    Murdoch is a serial phone hacker…nothing would stop him trying to hack elections too.

    OH so he’s going to rummage through your mailbox as well?

    Please turn off the stupid switch.]

    Most of us really don’t trust the mogulry, much as you might feel comfortable with them.

    To work properly, elections not only have to be free and fair, they have to be seen to be free and fair. I think you would find that very very few people would have a high degree of trust in digital voting.

  4. Oooooooh.

    Got moderated for telling Frednk and Puff what I really thought of their stinking attitude towards living under the yoke of the Russians.

  5. [Most of us really don’t trust the mogulry, much as you might feel comfortable with them.]

    What stops Murdoch going to the polling booth and saying his name is Sean Tisme? Or briefly? Or anyone elses name?

  6. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Internet voting wll happen one day, but not until we all have our own digital id, know what thay are and know how to use them.

    We already do… it’s called your mobile phone number.]

    As I have 4 different numbers do I get 4 votes?

  7. [
    2306
    Compact Crank

    Oooooooh.

    Got moderated for telling Frednk and Puff what I really thought of their stinking attitude towards living under the yoke of the Russians.]

    Why are you blaming the bludgers? They are not Russians…and it was a terribly longtime ago.

  8. I just told you bunch of bananas, THE AEC HANDLES VOTING, BY LAW. not damn Centrelink or the post office or your bank or the dog grooming shop.

    There is a reason for it, if you can move a few charges of electricity between whatever passes for bloddy synapses in those heads of yours.

    It is independent, a commission to handle all our electoral matters, even its employees have stricter ethical standards than ordinary APS. There is a reason Centrelink don’t do voting registrations. Think about it.

    And you want to spend billions reconfiguring it so lazy bugger like Sean can stay in bed? SHEESH!

  9. [ Compact Crank
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Frednk – how many tax file numbers do you have?]

    Never managered to phone (vote or otherwise) with a tax return.

  10. [As I have 4 different numbers do I get 4 votes?]

    You couldn’t do it the AEC would have your name and address in their database and your IP Address when you voted.

    What stops you to going to 10 different polling booths in your electorate?

  11. While I don’t disagree with Sean Tisme in priniple, in practice such a system would be very expensive, software is incredibly difficult to formally verify.

  12. frednk

    [As I have 4 different numbers do I get 4 votes?]

    I’ve got a phone, a burglar alarm and a mobile internet thing.

    At least 3 votes for me.

  13. [2303
    Sean Tisme

    AA you are really taking the wanker award for the night.]

    Is this something you hand out regularly, ST?

  14. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    I am going off to check if there are any reds under my bed, leftover from 1960.]

    If you find them better give them a good kick to wake em up, let them know the Liberals want to take up back 50 years, they need to serve again.

  15. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    As I have 4 different numbers do I get 4 votes?

    You couldn’t do it the AEC would have your name and address in their database and your IP Address when you voted.

    What stops you to going to 10 different polling booths in your electorate?]

    A paper trail, that can be checked after the event. And that is the critical issue.

  16. [I’ve got a phone, a burglar alarm and a mobile internet thing.

    At least 3 votes for me.]

    How many electoral booths in your area? 20 votes for you, we can play this game all night.

    If you try fraud with a SMS system it will be incredibly easy for them to prove it was you. Voting at multiple booths… not so much.

  17. CC
    Grow up. I never said I agreed that anyone should have lived under the soviets, who were evil. So don’t verbal me, mate. I don’t take to kindly to that.

    The USSR was appalling and murdered people. I have read my Solzhenitsyn too. As well as the biography of Stalin’s daughter. Which is not like lived experience but I get the picture.

    What I will not countenance is conflating that with union activity and progressive social programs. That is disgusting behaviour on your part and you should be ashamed of yourself for aligning hardworking unionists with dictatorial murderers.

    And both sides of the cold war were to blame for the global nuclear threat, which was a unforgivable way to treat the people of the world.

    So Do. Not. Ever. Align. PTMD. With. Murderous. Regimes.

    You lowdown snake’s anus.

  18. CC @ 2324, so you allege, but I very much doubt this is the case. As usual, I expect we would find nothing but a confected dispute in pursuit of a political goal.

  19. [Compact Crank
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    Briefly @2313

    They seem to think that it was acceptable and completely OK to live under the tyranny of the USSR.]

    The USSR stabilised the West because capitalism excesses were controlled, that is not the same as saying it was nice to live in the USSR.

    What I have never been able to come to grips with is why the average capitalist can’t work out that workers are consumers. Every time you screw down wages you screw down disposable income.

    Wall-Mart is now asking where are the customer, after spending several decades making sure their workers were not in the mix.

  20. [sean, you’d have to register 20 times, I’m sure they can count past 1.]

    Sorry.. have you voted before?

    They mark off someones name using a pencil. I’m a smart fraudster so I’m using names out of the telephone book not using my real name.

    Go to 20 different polling booths using 20 different names using the addresses from the phone book.

    Will they remember my face out of the thousands coming through that day? Probably not.

    Now compare that to what I am talking about with an online system with verfied name, address, mobile phone number and logged IP address.

  21. Puff – one minute you’re being flippant about reds under the bed and the next you’re getting all uptight for being taken to task for it – I ask the same of you as from AFL Umpires – consistency.

  22. Internet voting is inherently unsafe. Votes can be lost, stolen, transformed, hacked, duplicated and made public.

    As well, attempts to vote could all be voided by a successful cyber attack.

    The good thing about physical voting is it is highly dispersed, subject to physical external scrutiny, easily able to be counter-checked and validated and is understood and accepted as reliable by voters.

  23. frednk

    Just think about it, being afraid of unionists going to a conference in that black heart of communism, Cuba, you know the place with the casinos and plane loads of USA tourists.

  24. actually, I’m not going to wait for you to think.

    That’s 20 people who have voted twice.

    As I said, I’m sure they can count past 1.

  25. [2337
    Compact Crank

    Puff – one minute you’re being flippant about reds under the bed and the next you’re getting all uptight for being taken to task for it – I ask the same of you as from AFL Umpires – consistency.]

    Actually, she was being flippant about YOU. But that is a logical return on your conduct, which really is an insult to the intelligence of the bludgers.

  26. [Go to 20 different polling booths using 20 different names using the addresses from the phone book.]

    And, wow, you changed 20 votes in an electorate of 90,000! All that effort for 20 votes. That’s why voter fraud conspiracies are stupid. Such an effort would just be too difficult and infeasible.

    Voter fraud exists in places where a vested party controls the process and can stuff ballot boxes or put deceased names on the roll etc. However the AEC and its equivalent state branches have proven to be effective and neutral in voter registration and election running.

  27. CC
    No you didn’t. You made a statement that I supported the regimes of the USSR which oppressed and murdered their citizens. I am not ‘uptight’ either. Stop using a blame shifting metaphor, it is not my ‘uptightness’, it is your insult.

  28. [2346
    Compact Crank

    Lots of white global warming lying around in the Dolomites today and more falling.]

    And another timely effort on your part, illustrating once again that your main roles here are to insult the intelligence and impose on the good humour of the bludgers.

  29. The security on this blog is probably high enough to effectively run an election yet posters see it as some right wing threat – what marvelous power we possess.

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