The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.
Some further polling nuggets:
• Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.
• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.
• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.
AA @ 2242
My wife’s grandfather escaped from Czechoslovakia.
Complete and utter contempt for the supporters and apologists of the USSR and long term member of the Cardiff Conservative Club.
RIP Karel
[2239
Compact Crank
Briefly – just remind me – when was Menzies last PM? Quite a while before 1987. And how many Liberal PM’s since then. and Menzies was only the Australian PM – not the World President.]
Yup, Menzies, Adenauer and DeGaulle, Truman and Eisenhower, Churchill and Atlee, the Canadians, the Italians and the rest of the Europeans, in the immediate postwar period all pretty-well settled on the same deal. In the US, organised labor got onside too, as they did nearly everywhere else.
The model was designed to enable the West to stabilise internally and confront Russia. It worked. And it was a deal. The right generally went along with reinforcement of the economic powers of the State for the sake of stability. On the whole, the rights of labour were not challenged, though there were exceptions, especially here and in the UK.
None of this was seriously challenged until it became obvious the Soviet Union was finished and the consensus model was no longer useful to conservatives.
[What we have is secure as a result of compulsory attendance.]
And using my system of SMS confirmation there will be less fraud with an online voting system.
No mobile phone confirmation… no valid vote.
What was that business about the code for the USA electronic voting being owned by company with GOP links and because of commercial confidence no-one could examine it? Therefore no-one knew how the votes were collated.
I read that somewhere. So it is not just the system, it is who has it, or which government outsources the IT to a private company.
Pencil, paper, hand-count except in exceptional circumstances.
puff
If Mobile phones are involved the compaies to worry about today are:-
Apple; Google; HTC; Huwei Nokia; Windows and more
Display Name @2250 They should at least check Photo ID.
Who is an apologist for the USSR? The whole lot of them were arskeholes. Forty years building weapons to destroy the world a thousand times over and threatening every human being on the planet? I hope their is a special ring in Hell for them to sit in an eternal nuclear explosion. They were all sick sick men, and should have been locked in padded rooms, not the halls of power, USSR and the West combined.
Crank
Photo ID as a check was used in the US to exclude voters.
Court cases overturned that
There is no evidence of significant voter fraud existing in this country. And for a good reason: to be able effectively defraud enough ballots to be able to affect an outcome of an election, requires hundreds, if not thousands of ballots being falsely acquired and submitted. With an independent electoral commission monitoring things, it is just far too infeasible to do. The money and manpower required for it would be more productively applied to campaigning for the desired outcome, legally.
Compact Crank @2251
“My wife’s grandfather escaped from Czechoslovakia.
Complete and utter contempt for the supporters and apologists of the USSR and long term member of the Cardiff Conservative Club.”
Meanwhile we have the ALP and their associated drones pushing us back in time to media controls, internet filters, increased government regulation and suppressed freedom of speech. The socialist ideas are just beaming in Comrade Gillard’s eyes. She must really miss her communist pen-pals.
Sean
Stop being so lazy, get out of bed, go and vote. It wouldn’t hurt you to rub shoulders with the plebs once every three years.
[briefly
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 10:15 pm | Permalink
..
We have seen the results: dismantling of the regulation of finance, dismantling of progressive taxation, an increase in inequality, rising economic instability and, more recently, the return of endemic crisis in industrial economies.]
The sad thing is there are people like compact crank that arn’t bright enough to see it and vote against their own interest.
The soviet union stabalised captialism by preventing the excesses, that has gone.
CC @ 2243, this misses the point. Whitlam took things further than the Liberals wanted and Hawke/Keating further still. Even as recently as this month, Gillard has taken Abbott into territory he had previously sworn never to enter.
But, apart from aged pensions, which were enacted by the Fisher Labor Government in 1908 and a maternity benefit, also enacted by Labor in 1912, the welfare system and the role of the State as we recognise it was created by the imperishable John Curtin during the War.
Menzies accepted this system, lock, stock and barrel, and then added to it. He made no apologies for it either. In 1946 and again in 1949, he made it clear this was part of the post-war bargain. He would never have won an election had he tried to undo these reforms.
This system is similar in its essentials to social systems created in Europe and which are gradually being implemented in other market economies too.
But this is occurring in spite of the determination of the ideological right to tear things to pieces if they can.
Puff @2257 perhaps you should have a word with the leadership of the CFMEU who are happy to truck off the Cuba for Union conferences or those Greens Members with strong undenial links back to the communists of various hues.
Morpheus
Has anyone ever detected any brain activity in your skull higher than your brainstem?
Guytaur – this isn’t the US of A.
Different country. Different constitution. Different legal precedents.
2242 – the lack of real knowledge is prooof that we need Gonski
Goodnight
[If Mobile phones are involved the compaies to worry about today are:-]
It’s a confirmation code… they aren’t going to know what your online ID is.
FFS.. this isn’t rocket science. Lets try this again.
You go to Post Office, Centrelink, etc etc. You register your polling details with the person behind the desk using Photo ID. Person behind desk confirms you are who you say you are, details INCLUDING your mobile phone number get sent to AEC.
AEC… just like a bank.. mails you out a login ID, you then either have the AEC post password in a seperate letter or you have to call AEC to confirm details and get temp password.
You login… change your password.
Now on election day you login to AEC, login to your account and vote the way you see fit… the vote however does not go through yet.
The way you voted is sent to you via SMS including a special AEC generated confirmation number. You then type this number into the confirmation code box on the website and your vote is done and confirmed.
Now tell me HOW the Fark that would have more fraud than our current system?
CC
So the CMFEU and Greens talk to Communists? Whoopee do. It is not a crime in this country and the Communist Party was a legal party here. We did the right thing, treated it as just another minor party attracting a range of people including their share of nutters. The rest of us couldn’t give a richard about it.
I don’t think the Coalition hacks should bellow too loudly about authoritarianism. Some of the most egregious violations occurred under the Howard government.
And state Coalition governments are no angels here either…
Puff @2257 Perhaps you should look at the history of the Mining unions in the UK – do describe them as being in bed with the USSR is to put it politely.
Sigh – once again someone has to sort out all the wrong information and misguided assumptions in here.
Abbott announced in his budget reply that the Supplementary Allowance would go. That allowance is $210 a year for a single person and is paid in two instalments, March and September, to people receiving certain benefits including Newstart, Youth Allowance, Parenting Payment, Abstudy, Austudy and a few others. The first payment was made last March.
http://www.budget.gov.au/2012-13/content/glossy/social_policy/html/social_overview_05.htm
It has nothing to do with the Clean Energy Supplement. That is paid to everyone on a benefit including those on age pensions as compensation for price rises caused by the carbon price.
So no, age pensioners will not be losing another few hundred dollars a year if Abbott (God forbid) becomes PM and takes to Centrelink benefits with an axe. It’s so easy to check the facts, really it is. I wish more of you would take a few seconds to do just that before leaping to incorrect conclusions.
[ Compact Crank
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 10:51 pm | Permalink
Puff @2257 perhaps you should have a word with the leadership of the CFMEU who are happy to truck off the Cuba for Union conferences or those Greens Members with strong undenial links back to the communists of various hues.]
Compact Crank it is the 21st century you know, reds under the beds was so lat century..
Congrats to Nibali and Astana on the impending Giro victory.
Great result for Evans – beautifully conditioned for Le Tour – just need to make sure they sort the Team Leadership out effectively with TJ.
[2260
morpheus
Compact Crank @2251
Meanwhile we have the ALP and their associated drones pushing us back in time to media controls, internet filters, increased government regulation and suppressed freedom of speech….]
This overlooks the fact that the relaxation of censorship was enacted by Gough, who terminated the regime run by the Liberals. IIRC, the last then-Liberal charged with this responsibility was the Minister for Customs, Don Chipp.
But you’re right. Internet censorship is a silly idea.
Did I suddenly wake up in the 1960s or something?
The AEC handles all voting matters, not centrelink, not banks nor post-offices. It is separate and independent.
Anyway, have you seen the queues at a Centrelink office? It is easier just to get your lazy bum out of bed and go to the polling station and vote.
thanks leone…you points are most well-made
With the increase, total pension payments for people on the maximum rate will be:
· $808.40 a fortnight for singles, and
· $1,218.80 a fortnight for couples combined.
The Gillard Government is delivering for Australia’s pensioners, because we know pensioners have limited room to move in their budgets.
That’s why we have delivered the biggest boost to the pension in more than a century, improved the indexation system and have provided another pension increase with the new Clean Energy Supplement – part of the Household Assistance Package.
In contrast, Tony Abbott and the Liberals have promised to claw back the $1 billion a year support Labor is delivering pensioners under the Household Assistance Package.
This means every single pensioner in Australia would lose more than $350 a year and every pensioner couple would lose more than $530 a year under an Abbott Government.
Sean Tisme @2269
And that is quicker and easier than just turning up at a polling station 😆
Internet voting wll happen one day, but not until we all have our own digital id, know what thay are and know how to use them.
In the good old USA, states are retiring the machines one after another, money down the drain.
Murdoch is a serial phone hacker…nothing would stop him trying to hack elections too.
[The AEC handles all voting matters, not centrelink, not banks nor post-offices. It is separate and independent.]
Well you ring up AEC and give them your Passport or Drivers License number, they’ll then send it to your address on your drivers license and confirm your mobile phone number you give them is indeed in your name.
There are lots of ways of going about this to make it fraudproof.
[2277
Carey Moore
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 10:57 pm | Permalink
Did I suddenly wake up in the 1960s or something?]
😆
The Tories are trying to deny the past as well as the present, CM.
FWIW, I don’t really care either way on the electronic voting idea. I don’t really believe the scare tactic that it’s disenfranchisement. However, I don’t really care for it because there’s no real need to.
Voting is not that hard. Perhaps if the population were significantly higher it might be a practical alternative but it just seems like a pointless indulgence.
Also, “I don’t want to have to go out on Saturday” or whatever is hardly a good reason. It’s just lazy. However, if you really are that averse to going to a polling place, just postal vote!
[Murdoch is a serial phone hacker…nothing would stop him trying to hack elections too.]
OH so he’s going to rummage through your mailbox as well?
Please turn off the stupid switch.
CC
And if the mining unions were in bed with the USSR as you claim, just who do you think put them there? Owners who refused fair pay, safe conditions, decent healthcare etc for generations, maybe?
While the Communists would have treated them no better and probably worse, the lettuce on the other side of the fence wouldn’t look greener if you already had a full stomach.
Thank you for Eurosport on Foxtel – SBS treats WA like some sort of unimportant backwater – just following Fedaral ALP lead I suppose.
[Internet voting wll happen one day, but not until we all have our own digital id, know what thay are and know how to use them.]
We already do… it’s called your mobile phone number.
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 10:41 pm | Permalink
What we have is secure as a result of compulsory attendance.
And using my system of SMS confirmation there will be less fraud with an online voting system.
No mobile phone confirmation… no valid vote.
========================================================
you make the assumption that everyone has a mobile phone
AA @2280 Swannee said if the impact of the CO2 tax is lower then compensation should be lower – no tax should mean no compo, but the parliamentary Coalition is trying to win an election so they are keeping some of the unneeded compensation – such is life.
Sean
2290
Proof positive there is no activity upstairs.
moot an’ irrelevant.
you’re all off to th’Gulag, an’ not fer re-education, neither.
waste of funding, the lot o’yerz.
I’m pretty sure if this proposal ever happened, the AEC would go to extreme lengths to make sure it was secure.
2269
Sean Tisme
It might be secure, but it would not be secret.
carey, they would also need to prevent whomever they’re impersonating from voting, forge a notice fining them and intercept the payment of it.
Sean
I have a better idea. Why not just stay in bed and pay the fine? Win Win all they way round.
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 11:02 pm | Permalink
The AEC handles all voting matters, not centrelink, not banks nor post-offices. It is separate and independent.
Well you ring up AEC and give them your Passport or Drivers License number, they’ll then send it to your address on your drivers license and confirm your mobile phone number you give them is indeed in your name.
There are lots of ways of going about this to make it fraudproof.
———————————————————-
Just to compound your stupidity you assume everyone has a drib=vers licence and/or a passport…..you twit…
[you make the assumption that everyone has a mobile phone]
You make the assumption I’m assuming everyone will be forced to vote online.
Don’t have a mobile phone? Go to a polling booth. Can’t remember your login ID? Go to a polling booth.
It will be a voting option, not the ONLY option.