The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.
Some further polling nuggets:
• Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.
• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.
• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.
Fessy
To a point some bigots, homophobes, misoygnists and racists do try and hide their feelings but actions speak louder than words and their actions give themselves away.
But that is difference to what i am referring too. lets say in the heat of the moment you call someone for example a pom or wog doesn’t automatically mean you hate all Brits, Italians or Greeks.
Look at Abbott who is hiding his real persona behind a truck load of spak-filler, white eyeliner, pastel-coloured ties and his daughters. 😀
Boerwar
The thing that people who think like that overlook is all humans are related to apes and belong to the same animal family.
@CC/1949
I still serious problem with your posts CC.
You claim you don’t have an issue with Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, as long as it’s implemented by the “correct” party (i.e. Coalition Party).
Briefly – worked to get Rudd elected.
Bushfire Bill. The only true measure of success for an Opposition is to win Government. Abbott was labelled ‘unelectable’ when he became LOTO and yet went within a Bee’s Dick of deposing a first term government (which lost its majority) and seeing off a first term PM who was executed by his own Party. And now he has the Coalition in a formidable position leading into the election.
The measure of success of Government is to be able to implement its policies and get reelected – that’s why Gillard is likely to be a failure unless there is an unexpected dramatic change in sentiment and the polls.
1948
For an opposition trying to win without showing harsh policies, they are releasing some looking rather fightback-ish policies.
Take the no urban rail funding announcement, for example. Hockey has now said that it is about not needing Commonwealth Public servants to analyse the projects.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/17/politics/kgb-shadow-treasurer-joe-hockey#ixzz2UBSo9U6j
I don’t think it’s correct to say the Coalition have no policies at this stage. They have provided policy direction in some critical areas. We know they support the NDIS. We know they will retain FWA with some modifications. We know they support NBNlite. We know they will “try” and reverse the CPRS and implement their direct action policy. We know they have said they will implement the budget changes announced by Labor two weeks ago. We know they will introduce an expanded PPL policy.
However there are still some key gaps – health, education, defence and aged-care for starters. Also of course we still have scant information on coatings. But in the normal course of elections we normally wouldn’t have an election date so there is still time for the gaps to be filled.
CC @ 1949…of course, the MRRT should be reformed. That is clear. We should capture some of the revenue flow from mineral and energy exports and use it to support fixed investment or, if incomes were to expand greatly, to allocate to a Sovereign Wealth Fund.
Since our mineral and energy industries are 85% foreign owned, a lot of the profit share of our exports flows out of the economy. Increasing the tax on these flows would add net income to the economy. We should make the most of this, as we are going to need these income flows to help us adapt.
dwh
You left out that Abbott has a policy for Tasmania: A Discussion Paper.
Mb @1953
I think the DNA/evolutionary gap between humans and Apes is a bit larger than the way you state it but I will defer to someone with a deeper knowledge of the biology.
1957
You have confused what the Opposition have said they will do if elected, with what they will actually do.
CC – Iam aware that Aust has a PRRT, it was introduced by Labor.
I dont see why mining companies should be exempt. MRRT minus royalties. Noting that the MRRT is a super profits tax that will only produce revenue when the mining companies produce a “super” profit.
And while individuals like Twiggy and Gina roill around in billions the country misses out.
The current MRRT should have been linked into a Sovereign Fund rather than welfare
Coatings should be costings although it is likely these will be sugar-coated.
Crank
I didn’t say that they were closely related but apes and humans apparently belong to the same family.
A bit like a Lion is related to a little tabby cat
Zoidy – I don’t have a problem which party implements good policy – floating the AUD was a triumph for Australia.
On the contrary, Abbott has numerous signature policies that allow voters to judge the far right authoritarian coalition on.
Abbotts PPL (GST-by-stealth) policy.
Abbotts tow-back-the-boats policy.
Abbotts very expensive taxpayer funded carbon pollution policy.
Abbotts superannuation tax hike on low earners policy.
Abbotts tax cut for super profiting miners policy.
Abbotts degraded copper wire fraudband policy.
[Yep. The Ford workers should have been working for $2 a day.]
How bout this one… tell the unions to pieve off and let the workers work for whatever they want in this FREE MARKET economy.
If they don’t like the wage… get another job. Simple.
If they are willing to work for the wage Ford can afford, then tell the unions to piss off. Simple.
Nobody is forced to work a job they don’t want to do for the wage they don’t want to be paid in this country, you are free to leave your job and get another one.
The bonobo genome and human genome have around a 99% overlap.
[1955
Compact Crank
Briefly – worked to get Rudd elected.]
This is most unlikely to be true.
Tom that is an issue that applies to both sides of politics. We don’t always get what we thought we were getting.
CC – the problem with the MRRT is not the tax and its purpose. The problem is that it was meant to cover the cost of “welfare” that was the “people’s share” of the mining boom. And then the tax did not earn enough to cover the cost of the “welfare”.
As I said, a Soveriegn Find or paid directly against debt
ST
I wouldn’t pay you 50 cents a day.
@CC/1965
Then we are in agreement and MRRT is working fine.
@Sean/1967
Getting Rid of Unions didn’t do anything in Australia back in Howard era.
The fascination around Unions is just nuts.
Briefly – how do you sort out the mess between the states and Feds on Royalties?
bonobos are like lefties…they use sex and food to avoid conflict and resolve differences.
chimpanzees are like Liberals…they fight each other to resolve conflict.
Sean
So why do conservatives think unions are the problem?
If less unions are the solutions to economic problems then what is wrong with the U.S economy?
Why is BMW so successful with its highly unionised workforce?
CC
Get rid of the states. Worse than useless and very expensive to run.
CC
Er. This government has implemented a lot of its policies successfully – it remains to be seen how much of its platform is ripped up by succeeding governments.
And, in case you hadn’t noticed, ALL governments get voted out eventually. Does that make them all “losers”?
Simon Palan @SimonPalan 8m
#Breaking Former L-N-P heavyweight Barry O’Sullivan has been chosen to replace Barnaby Joyce in the senate.
Boerwar @1968
Primates are quite genetically different from Apes.
One of the great myths
[Nobody is forced to work a job they don’t want to do for the wage they don’t want to be paid in this country, you are free to leave your job and get another one.]
Boerwar
LOL
Liberal Policy
Budget – everything Labor says plus we will delay the increase in superannuation and remove the $500 contribution, stop the SchoolKids payment and oppose the changed BabyBonus of $2000 because these changes will not make any household worse off.
We will continue paying the tax cuts and compensation for what we claim is a carbon tax but we will remove the legislation.
Direct Action – we did orinally say we would spend $3.2 billion, but we have backflipped and will now only spend $2billion. And because we really don’t know what we will spend the money on we will consult and get a real plan after the election.
Taxation – we will reduce taxes but we wait until after the election and have a commission of audit to tell you exactly what we will do.
I/R – we will not make substantial changes to the Fair Work Act but we will have the Productivity Commission review the Act and we will tell what we will do after the election.
GST – we will hide behind the states on any changes so we can blame them and claim we are only doing what the states wanted. While former leader is saying 20% and plenty are saying extend it to food etc we will concede to the states and take no responsibilty.
Crank
Apes are primates.
CC
‘Primates are quite genetically different from Apes.’
Apes are primates.
Briefly @1969
Rudd ran a Howard-lite campaign – very light on policy except anti- work choices
[How bout this one… tell the unions to pieve off and let the workers work for whatever they want in this FREE MARKET economy.]
The minimum wage is not set by unions. Did your brain cell have a stupid idea again?
CC
Abbott is running a Howard-lite campaign with Howard-lite policies.
Howard is the Liberal Lite on Abbott’s Hill.
CC –
I would have thought that was a question for you since you seem to think it was all so easy to get right?
You support the concept of a profits based rent on mining, which is what the MRRT is, but you complain it is inefficient – presumably you are talking about the roll of state royalties being deducted.
So how do you propose to fix this? The LNP is just saying they’ll scrap the MRRT – that doesn’t sound like they want a profits based tax. So … if you can’t get something perfect you think it’s a good idea to throw out anything at all?
It is a classic tactic of this opposition – complain about any deficiencies, but offer no way forward to better policy.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-boss-swore-at-candidate/story-e6freoof-1226172372710?sv=49c2ca422a801be27db8a992ddd02533#.UaBZay0qGdU.twitter
[The recording of the brutal two-hour interview with former Cairns candidate Paul Freebody, obtained by The Courier-Mail, is an unprecedented insight into how political parties tackle internal problems.
Colourful LNP treasurer Barry O’Sullivan, already accused of employing intimidation tactics and holding dirt files on LNP MPs, is heard repeatedly swearing at Mr Freebody, who was dumped in August.]
Bully Barry who hectors LNP candidates wins safe LNP Senate spot. Anyone surprised? | CourierMail #qldpol
Boerwar – ok if apes are primates then I’m wrong.
Stephen Fry on an episode of QI explained just how different humans are from Apes – it was very interesting.
1948
briefly
[CC, what is extraordinary about Abbott is that in spite of his supposed ascendancy in the polls, he totally lacks the political courage to spell out his intentions, as if he knows that were his values and plans to see the light of day, his support would collapse.]
I have no doubt that Abbott has some very nasty surprises for us, if elected. Mainly targeted at the lower half of the socio-economic pile.
Because he is a gutless coward who gets off on lording it over the weak and vulnerable, while crawling up the arse of the rich and powerful.
Crank
Yes there are some big differences between Apes and Humans
Just as there are some big differences between Lion and little tabby.
Hugh White has an article in today’s ‘The Australian’. He makes various observations, including a repeat of his view that the White Paper is based on very risky false assumptions and that the major acquisitions are all about fighting the last war rather than the next one.
He makes a passing comment that resonates, wtte, it is as if the navy is there for the shipyards rather than the other way around. Why does it resonate?
Because it is precisely the point I have been making about the decision to build the submarines in Australia.
White also raises the general issue of where’s the money coming from? Quite rightly, IMHO. IMHO, the decision to build the subs in Australia almost certainly means that we will end up having far fewer than 12 submarines.
Abbott has declared that there will be no nasty surprises under Prime Minister Abbott.
Wanna bet?
[Rudd ran a Howard-lite campaign – very light on policy except anti- work choices]
If you believe this does the tooth fairy still visit?
Well he can deliver that by just slashing while pointing to the budget
CC
Yep. We primates are interesting critters.
Jackol – yes. Each term is a separate government. The last Howard government was a failure.
I will lay off Barry O’Sullivan because his grandson is still seriously ill after being thrown from a ride.
He will last about as long as Santo Santoro did in the Senate.