BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition

A deluge of post-budget polling has slightly improved Labor’s position, and maintained a primary vote surge for “others”.

The flurry of post-budget polling, encompassing Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy, Essential Research and Morgan (so basically everyone except ReachTEL), came in slightly above Labor’s recent form, pushing them up 0.5% on two-party preferred on the weekly BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor also gains three on the seat projection, which come off the totals for Victoria (where they were boosted by a 54-46 lead in Nielsen), South Australia and the territories. On the primary vote, the “others” total has increased for a fifth week in a row, to a level matched in the current term only in March and July 2012. See the sidebar for full details.

Some further polling nuggets:

• Gemma Daley of the Financial Review reports a poll of 600 respondents conducted “by the resources industry” which shows Tony Windsor surprisingly well placed in New England, with 49% to Barnaby Joyce’s 38%. Previous polling in New England over the current term has included a Newspoll survey of 504 respondents in October 2011 which had an as-yet-unchosen Nationals candidate leading Windsor 41% to 33%, and a ReachTEL in June 2012 which had the Nationals lead as high as 62% to 25%.

• Somewhat confusingly, the resources industry poll also covered “a sample that concentrated in three western Sydney seats, which was extended to all of the seats in the area”. This showed Labor would “at best achieve a 44 per cent two-party preferred result”, costing it every seat in western Sydney.

• Roy Morgan offers further budget polling, conducted by SMS and involving 1409 respondents, half contacted before the budget and half after. Asked whether the budget would “benefit you and your family”, 32% said yes before the event and 68% said no, which was little changed afterwards (30% and 70%). Also featured are age and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,393 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Coalition”

Comments Page 41 of 48
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  4. CC – ok, a very odd point of view in my opinion.

    Government is about how public policy is developed and implemented, and in my mind a government is successful if it has a lasting legacy of good public policy.

    Whether they get voted out or not is irrelevant because I don’t care about politicians or politics except as a means to an end.

    You obviously see it differently.

  5. [Tom the first and best
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 4:26 pm | Permalink
    1957

    You have confused what the Opposition have said they will do if elected, with what they will actually do.]

    That was my first thought too. When you factor in the fact that Abbott is an inveterate liar – something he has to all intents and purposes publicly admitted – we actually KNOW bugger all about what Abbott will do when he is elected.

  7. [How bout this one… tell the unions to pieve off and let the workers work for whatever they want in this FREE MARKET economy.]
    Strange it only applies when it comes to cutting wages. When the FREE MARKET means workers with skills in short supply will be able to negotiate higher wages the free marketeers run crying to the government for 457 visa workers to distort the market in Australia back in their favour.

  9. Sean

    If you are convinced that the economic ills are caused by unions why can’t you outline the reason.

    The modern wage system was started by a conservative (Higgins) yet for some reason Conservatives continue to view Unions as the problem.

  11. Boerwar 2001
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 4:47 pm | Permalink
    100 point flogging by WCE over GWS.

    As an Eagles supporter I am glad of the win and the percentage boost. Not a lot of joy in beating the “under 21” team though

  12. Boerwar

    I am not arguing for or against 457 visas. It is the selective attachment to the “free market”. Good when it reduces wages bad when it increases them.

  15. [1967
    Sean Tisme

    Yep. The Ford workers should have been working for $2 a day.

    How bout this one… tell the unions to pieve off and let the workers work for whatever they want in this FREE MARKET economy.

    If they don’t like the wage… get another job. Simple.

    If they are willing to work for the wage Ford can afford, then tell the unions to piss off. Simple.

    Nobody is forced to work a job they don’t want to do for the wage they don’t want to be paid in this country, you are free to leave your job and get another one.]

    Apart from the complete lack of insight this shows about the social nature of work, of course the description of the economy as a “free market” one is very partial.

    We have an economy that is highly monopolised in some respects and highly fragmented in others. Ownership in many key industries – between them responsible for a large share of the economy – is highly concentrated and most large organisations tend to be run on bureaucratic lines. So it makes very little sense to describe the economy as “free” in the classical, liberal sense.

    It is just not obvious that unions make these firms less effective or efficient. In fact, it is more likely that unions increase the ability of firms to compete by enhancing the social dynamics in any given workforce. This is certainly the case in successful manufacturing economies, such as in Germany and Japan.

    Of course, the ideological view is that unions are an obstruction to firms’ ability to organise their resources. But actual research suggests the opposite. Unions are a means by which workers can fulfill their needs for attachment, recognition, identity and both mutual protection and advancement. These things are primary human needs. Any organisation that ignores them will fail to optimise its performance.

    Unions really are a self-organising response to these basic needs in a workplace context, and generally help firms maintain internal dynamism in the context of competition. The experience of many firms across many differing economies suggests that the existence of strong social bonds between workers – of which unions are an example – are a key factor in achieving organisational goals, mediating change and enabling firms to compete effectively. In many cases, this has been the difference between survival and extinction.

    In Ford’s case, it is almost certain that even if workers were willing to work for nothing at all, the firm would still have closed. They simply cannot sell enough vehicles to stay in business.

  17. Even Henry Ford realised he had to pay his workers enough to buy a Ford.

    He forgot if you can’t afford a Dodge, Dodge a Ford. 😆

  18. [1974
    Compact Crank

    Briefly – how do you sort out the mess between the states and Feds on Royalties?]

    You don’t bother. The Commonwealth should just levy export receipts. Very simple. The rates could vary between commodities. This is not strictly “rent” collection. But that would not matter. It would be a very simple system to administer. It would capture an income flow before the states levied royalties and it would not be affected by depreciation or finance structures of individual projects.

    If we were running resources the way they run banks, this is what we would do – clip the tickets, I think they call it.

  19. I believe the people will not believe Abbott when he says to Geelong we have plans for you. This just two days after the news about plants closing is announced.

    Awfully quick coming up with solutions off the bat there.

  21. briefly

    Nicely put.

    The attitude of so called conservatives about unions indicates a lack of knowledge and experience of the workplace but more importantly a lack of knowledge of why Unions exist.

    The unions are in effect no difference than CPA or REIV yet we don’t see Conservatives upset with those groups.

    Do conservatives actually understand the reasons why people like Higgins and Swinburne saw the need though I.R and Education to change the lot of people less well off.

    Higgins was a well off conservative, yes he was part of the first ALP government but never joined it for he was not politically left but on the issue of I.R he saw the need for a safety net for employees

  22. [1986
    Compact Crank
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    Briefly @1969

    Rudd ran a Howard-lite campaign – very light on policy except anti- work choices]

    Rubbish. He made promises across the board…health, education, immigration, the environment, tax, IR, the states…everything he could think of was included.

  23. Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 5:04 pm | Permalink
    AA

    Take ‘em where you can get ‘em, I say.

    After the lousy start to the season – we need to take ’em when we get ’em….moving our way up the ladder.

  26. Ru

    Yes Henry Ford is an interesting case for he came along at the end of the era dominated by big business that believed in a low paid workforce yet Ford went the other way and embraced a high pay workforce.

  27. Crank

    the big one Rudd ran on during the election campaign was “the greatest moral challenge of our time.

    A challenge PMJG with Crossbench’s and Greens have met.

    Labor has won on this issue since.

  29. I doubt very much that people like ST refuse any of the working conditions that have been won by Unions.
    Sick leave
    annual leave
    OHS legislation
    Workers Comp legislation
    8hr working day/40 hour week
    Parental leave
    penalty rates
    protection for young workers
    and more

    Still have never seen a Union go broke and leave its members (shareholders) losing their life savings

  30. [2020
    ruawake

    FARMERS have praised Labor’s National Food Plan but the Coalition says the government’s agriculture blueprint is too little, too late.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/first-ever-national-food-plan-praised-by-nff-criticised-by-greens/story-fn59niix-1226650458434
    Oh for fecks sake, cant the rabble be positive for one second?]

    Whatever is proposed by Labor, now matter how worthwhile or relevant, we can be sure the LNP will oppose it. That is their purpose in life: to oppose everything Labor might adopt.

  31. [DEBT-LADEN councils are racking up millions on publicly funded credit cards, leaving ratepayers to pick up the tab on goods such as Bee Gees concert tickets and fancy dress costumes.

    Documents obtained by The Courier-Mail, under right to information laws, reveal staff from seven southeast Queensland councils have put almost $3 million worth of goods on the plastic – including overseas trips, unauthorised alcohol, ammunition, animal costumes, concert tickets and car washes.]

    Oh noes where is Brandis DH?

  32. [Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 5:04 pm | Permalink
    AA

    Take ‘em where you can get ‘em, I say.]

    Sounds a bit sexist to me BW 😆

  35. Abbott avoids more GST questions http://zite.to/12PJZOl

    Still hiding behind his claim that it is up to the states. To gutless to make a statement about hwta he is proposing. Hewson has outed the Libs with his it should be raised to 20%

  37. Briefly
    Whatever is proposed by Labor, now matter how worthwhile or relevant, we can be sure the LNP will oppose it. That is their purpose in life: to oppose everything Labor might adopt.

    The Liberals have adopted the Labor budget plans and NDIS.
    Can’t expect the NOalition to be too positive, they might stop damaging business confidence

  38. [AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 5:17 pm | Permalink
    I doubt very much that people like ST refuse any of the working conditions that have been won by Unions.
    Sick leave
    annual leave
    OHS legislation
    Workers Comp legislation
    8hr working day/40 hour week
    Parental leave
    penalty rates
    protection for young workers
    and more

    Still have never seen a Union go broke and leave its members (shareholders) losing their life savings]

    Point well made Aussi. I have no time for anti union morons, whichever side of the fence they come from.

  39. [“This is a great outcome for Australian farmers, the NFF and agriculture in general,” ]

    Poor John Cobb, he has to actually respond to something. I bet he wishes Barnaby was still defacto Nat everything spokesman.

  41. Okay since conservatives are too lazy to explain why all workplaces problems are caused by unions maybe they can point to a H.R text book that says that they are the cause of the problem.

  42. [2026
    mexicanbeemer

    Ru

    Yes Henry Ford is an interesting case for he came along at the end of the era dominated by big business that believed in a low paid workforce yet Ford went the other way and embraced a high pay workforce.]

    Ford realised that worker motivation was critical to production, and, in his case, to mass production. Whereas the prevailing view had been that workers did not want to be productive at all, and just attended workplaces to collect their wages while trying to do as little as possible, Ford saw that actually workers were susceptible to “management” – that is, their motivation could be varied by the conscious actions of management.

    So while he dramatically increased worker pay, he also introduced the whole concept of input/output assessment – of efficiency measurement. In a sense, he not only pioneered the production line, but the application of management on the basis of data. This is still a bedrock management principle at Ford, who reputedly measure everything that can be measured.

  48. Kevin Rudd ‏@KRuddMP 10m
    .@mudsurfer: Was so excited when @KRuddMP announced NBN project. Visionary long term infrastructure. Now Libs will stuff it up out of spite.

    he’s still at it

  49. [AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, May 25, 2013 at 5:34 pm | Permalink
    Darn – right

    They condemn Unions but still want the good bits….]

    I have never known a non union member to knock back a pay rise or condition that a union has won for them. Freeloaders – that’s what they are. And whinging freeloaders at that.

  50. Tisme

    You are either using the worlds longest fishing pole or have lost the plot.

    What has prank calls got to do with the “left”? Is your brain cell on strike for more stimulation?

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