The biggest head-turner to emerge from the latest batch of polls was Labor’s sub-30% primary vote in Nielsen, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate in fact records a slight improvement this week for Labor, who appear to be trending back to equilibrium after last month’s leadership crisis. As well as Nielsen, the aggregate has been updated with results from Galaxy, Morgan and Essential (there was also last night’s ReachTEL poll for Channel Seven, but I haven’t included this as I don’t yet have enough data for ReachTEL to determine bias and accuracy weightings). Nielsen’s breakdowns have also allowed for the state relativities to be revised.
Speaking of which, I thought it might be illuminating to plot how the mainland states have been tracking relative to the national polling since the 2010 election. The following charts do so with reference to Labor’s two-party vote. Keep in mind that this measures the states’ deviance from the national result, and not simply the level of Labor support – so a flat line tells us not that support for Labor in that state has been steady, but that the ups and downs have closely matched the national results (as they usually do).
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
The most obvious point to emerge is that Queensland is the odd man out on account of its volatile trendline. This relates to the “smooth” function displayed at the top left of each chart, reflecting the smoothness of the line which most meaningfully represents the scattered data points (in the estimation of my stats program, going off something called the AICc criterion). Where the trend is either consistent or non-existent, as it is for the other four states, the smoothing parameter is high and the line fairly straight. But where there is a distinct pattern to the variation, as in the case of Queensland, the number lowers to produce a line variable enough to follow the trend (different smoothing parameters also explain why the Coalition’s primary vote trendline on BludgerTrack is smoother than Labor’s).
The Queensland exception is down to a fairly clear 3% sag for Labor from March to July 2012, which happens to be coincide with the immediate aftermath of their devastating state election defeat. This seems to suggest that temporary static from Queensland state politics added over half a point to the Coalition blowout in the national result at this time, which can be clearly observed on BludgerTrack. It should be noted that this week’s Nielsen result is the only data point for Queensland since last month’s Labor leadership crisis, and it’s solidly lower than anything recorded since November. BludgerTrack will need more than one 350-sample result before it draws any conclusions, but the Nielsen result may point to a downturn the Queensland trendline is yet to catch up with.
Something similar may also be happening in South Australia, where Labor’s downward turn since late last year would be much sharper with a lower smoothing parameter. If forthcoming results for this state remain poor for Labor, their already weak projection will deteriorate fairly rapidly.
Other news:
• Barnaby Joyce had a clear 150-10 win over local IT businessman David Gregory in the Nationals preselection for Tony Windsor’s seat of New England, conducted after the withdrawal of Richard Torbay. The LNP will now have to choose a (presumably Nationals-aligned) candidate to fill Joyce’s casual Senate vacancy when he resigns to the contest the election, with the winner to serve out the remainder of a Senate term that will end in mid-2017.
• WA Labor has determined the order of its Senate election ticket, the top two positions going to Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Assocation state president Joe Bullock and incumbent Louise Pratt, in that order. Bullock takes the seat designated for the SDA from the man he succeeded as the union’s state secretary, Mark Bishop, who bowed out of the race on Monday in recognition that he faced certain defeat. Bullock’s success in securing the top position was the contentious fruit of an arrangement between the Right faction SDA and the largest Left union, United Voice, which secured the state lower house seat of Fremantle for United Voice faction member Simone McGurk at the expense of Adrian Evans of the insurgent Maritime Union of Australia. Pratt’s demotion from top of the ticket in 2007 is more than symbolic, as there are fears Labor’s vote in WA is so weak it can’t be guaranteed a second seat. Former state upper house MP Jon Ford, who is associated with the United Voice’s main Left rival, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, complained that the SDA-United Voice deal very nearly led to Pratt being excluded altogether.
• Also determined by the Labor state executive was the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Evans, which will stay in the United Voice fold by going to Sue Lines, a WA-raised but Sydney-based official with the union.
• Labor’s state executive also chose candidates for four lower house seats, three of which would be winnable under normal circumstances. Hasluck will be contested the aforementioned Adrian Evans of the MUA, whose partisans reportedly account for a quarter of the state party’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled their numbers from 150 to 850. There will be more on Hasluck in Friday’s Seat of the Week. The other candidates are lawyer Tristan Cockman in Cowan, Victoria Park deputy mayor John Bissett in Swan and, in the safely conservative regional seat of Durack, Fitzroy Crossing musician and party activist Daron Keogh.
• The Liberals have a new candidate for the Melbourne hinterland seat of McEwen after their initial nominee, Ben Collier, withdrew due to “unforeseen family circumstances”. The party’s administrative committee unanimously chose as his successor Donna Petrovich, a member of the state upper house for Northern Victoria region and former mayor of Macedon Ranges. Sue Hewitt of the Northern Weekly was able to confirm that ReachTEL had earlier conducted a poll of the electorate on behalf of an undisclosed client gauging name recognition for Collier and Petrovich. Petrovich will relinquish her seat in the upper house on June 30.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Liberal internal polling has them leading 56-44 in the Labor-held Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce, with the primary votes at 29% for Labor’s Anna Burke and 48% for the Liberal candidate in Chisholm, and 32% for Alan Griffin against 48% for the Liberals in Bruce.
• Former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad has won preselection to replace retiring Nationals member John Forrest in Mallee. The other candidates were Swan Hill councillor Michael Adamson, Buloke mayor Reid Mather, Horsham farmer Russell McKenzie and Mildura resident Anne Webster. Swan Hill deputy mayor Greg Cruickshank was a late withdrawal. The Liberals are yet to determine whether they will field a candidate.
[GeorgeMonbiot @GeorgeMonbiot 2m
Head of Nestle: #water is not a human right, but “a foodstuff like any other”.]
There it is. Blatantly sociopathic corporate greed.
They are not even pretending anymore.
[You can kiss good bye to your leftist fantasy of a Right Wing Nut Job being responsible.]
Your posts today indicate a serious unhinging in your head
[ Head of Nestle: #water is not a human right, but “a foodstuff like any other”.]
I went on a study tour of SE Asia around 10 years ago and was shocked to see so many Nestle posters, adverts (even in health clinics!) promoting their infant formulas for new mums as the ‘ safe, hygienic alternative’.
What’s safer or more hygienic for a nursing infant than breast milk, esp in areas with water insecurity? I was amazed.
Compact Crank
[
poroti @1590 – who ever said Cu allowed faster transmission of signals than optical fibre?]
Didn’t say anyone did. BUT your party’s claim that their FTTN NBN plan will match the speed of Labor’s FTTH NBN is just as stupid.
So now wearing a tshirt is enough to make you a communist. How about it was his cleanest?
Tweet from Emmo
By not sacking his staffer, Abbott is condoning threats and intimidation. A window into a brutal Abbott Prime Ministership.
Poroti @1604 – that claim has not been been made.
If it has then please provide evidence.
You’re making shit up again.
Tom Hawkins 1602
CC’s post
[You can kiss good bye to your leftist fantasy of a Right Wing Nut Job being responsible.]
Just read back posts from some of the Big Lefties here Tom; CC is right. Turns out that those responsible (allegedly of course) are Extreme Lefties who represent the West’s part of the LoonieLeft-Jihadist alliance, ie useful idiots and/or brainwashed converts to Islamism who together strive for global jihad/destruction of the West.
poroti @1605 – I’m unaware of any conservative who wears a Che Guvera T-Shirt by choice given what a murderous bastard of a leftist he was, and that almost defintely precludes anyone with a right wing nutjob proclivity from wearing one.
victoria
[ A window into a brutal Abbott Prime Ministership.]
Well of course, as one K Rudd wrote about Abbott’s dad…..
[Howard’s Brutopia
The battle of ideas in Australian politics
In the October issue of The Monthly, I discussed how right-wing Christian extremism has become John Howard’s religious handmaiden in his political project to reshape Australia. I argued, too, that the campaigns of the religious Right were one front among many in Howard’s political offensive against the Left, now known widely as the “culture war”. ]
http://www.themonthly.com.au/monthly-essays-kevin-rudd-howard-s-brutopia-battle-ideas-australian-politics-312
[Turns out that those responsible (allegedly of course) are Extreme Lefties ]
Based on a T shirt??
Really, you are Alan Jones aren’t you??
Abbott operates on the basis that anything goes as long as you dont get caught….and even then he points to the nearest banana tree: “look, over there – bananas!” Works pretty well with the trained monkeys in the MSM.
That said(to quote a well-worn phrase) Abbott clearly “has questions to answer” based on the events of this week.
Compact Crank..a right-wing wanker would wear a “I f*cked Mother Theresa” if he thought it would get him a free pass into the Sistene Chapel!
Compact Crank
[
poroti @1605 – I’m unaware of any conservative who wears a Che Guvera T-Shirt ]
Off to the optometrist with you. @1605 was ruawake.
Problem with what Emmo tweeted is that under Labor’s IR laws you probably can’t sack someone for a single indiscretion. You need to councel them and properly manage their behavior.
[Extreme Lefties – Based on a T shirt??]
No, based on everything you can now read about one of them on the net; so fair to say that his (alleged) partner in crime also isn’t a right-wing nutbag but a left-wing terrorist.
[Problem with what Emmo tweeted is that under Labor’s IR laws you probably can’t sack someone for a single indiscretion.]
For a serious offense you can sack someone with warning
[You need to councel them and properly manage their behavior]
Sounds fair to me.
1617
[For a serious offense you can sack someone with warning]
read ‘without’
Keep up the good fight, Mick!
[The last hour of CNN: Suspect ID’d. Arrest imminent. Arrest made. Confirmed arrest made. Wait, maybe no arrest. Confirmed arrest not made.]
Oh dear.
I knew what you meant Tom although even a sacking for a serious offence could lead to an unfair dismissal claim. It’s a massive grey area.
Tom Hawkins@1602
cc’s posts reflect the ipa, who have huge donations over many years from big tobacco whose so called ‘products’ kill 20,000 Australians each year.
That a a fully loaded jumbo crashing each week, every year and killing all on board.
cc supporting such outcomes by his membership and support of the ipa.
He shows here each day what the tories and the ipa are all about.
Compact Crank@1607
You’re the one making shit up – which of the above is your argument –
a – that claim has not been been made.
or
b – If it has then please provide evidence.
It cannot be both.
You are a laughing stock here now after today’s ‘performance’ – credibility gone.
More fun from Scott Driscoll.
[In a statement released by Mr Driscoll, written in the third person, he said he would be “dedicating his full energies to serving the people of Redcliffe, from the Queensland Parliamentary crossbenches.”
“We’ve heard various utter rubbish allegations that I’ve basically exercised some sort of special “Jedi Mind Control” over people on private Boards that I’ve never even sat on myself or had a razoo of power over, just so they would give my wife a job, or offer her company a contract to provide services, even before I was elected to Parliament,” he said in the statement.
“And we’ve been fed lines about some sort of secret “Bat Cave” type set up apparently operating in a secret wall cavity of my Redcliffe office with massive rivers of gold and diamonds basically flowing through to companies my family is linked to. And I supposedly sit their (sic) like Dr Evil and get confused between how many millions, billions or trillions are being made while stroking some hairless cat.”
The LNP has released a brief statement that it has received notice from Mr Driscoll resigning his party membership.
“Mr Driscoll is no longer a member of the LNP,” the statement says.]
At least the last sentence is sane.
Ok dave 1622, I give up. What’s ipa? I probably should know given the number of Aussies they’re apparently murdering but I don’t. Is it a jihadist pseudonym?
Mick77
[
Ok dave 1622, I give up. What’s ipa? ]
In my field IPA = isopropyl alcohol 🙂
I don’t know many right wingers that wear Che Guevera t-shirts.
So maybe Jones was right for once but it could also have been a disguise.
I think he means the Institute of Public Affairs.
Mick77@1625
Its one the tories closest allies – the institute of so called public affairs.
Look it up – but I am amazed at the question.
Here is a picture of abbott there last week on his knees at the feet of murdoch.
Great look ahh ?
Another way of describing the IPA would be Tim Wilson
Just got off a plane – has it been established whether the Boston bombers are or were (a) Islamists (b) extreme rightist (c) extreme leftists (d) Fox News staff?
All pollies want to get near Murdoch and why wouldn’t you after all he is a successful business owner from a successful self made family.
[1531
Fran Barlow
That will probably have to await a Damascene conversion from surplus fetishism and also their love of big defence toys, fossil fuel subsidies, offshore prisons for asylum seekers and concessional mining tax arrangements for rightwing spivs. I’ll be looking forward to that one.]
Deficits….The deficits are coming to rest, in the public accounts, after a few years of high life in the private sector. Considering the total debts in the economy are astonishingly large, you too may one develop a reluctance to keep on borrowing.
Defence Toys…spending being at the lowest point since the 1930’s, there is no money for toys or even for a few boats. We have contracted out our defence to the US, who are happy to oblige, up to a point.
Fossil Fuel subsidies….or, correctly, tax rebates. Yes, mining, agriculture, fisheries and forestry get a tax break.
Prisons for asylum-seekers…yes, they should reform the Act, though not in ways you might approve.
Mining taxes…We have had a few years of extraordinary income gains, now being eclipsed by rapid prices falls. Fairly soon the prices for minerals will return to their pre-bubble norms, squeezing returns back to the modest levels that usually apply in resource extraction. Yields in iron mining in the Pilbara averaged about 4% from 1960 to 2000. They will soon decline to those levels if history is any guide. In the meantime, the system of fiscal equalisation between states ensures that mineral revenues are shared across the whole population.
For mine, the resource boom has been a mixed blessing. It’s great while incomes and investment rise, but sheer hell on the way down.
Psephos at this time it’s only been established that they were idiots. Their wing status is still unknown.
Psephos@1631
Live –
http://boston.cbslocal.com/live-video/
mexicanbeemer@1632
yeah right – all the better to be on your knees at his feet.
Yes master…
Dave
A strong politician surely knows how to network without being a puppet.
Everybody needs to network in order to be successful, it doesn’t mean that you have to roll over and lack any principles.
[1551
lizzie
Perhaps someone from WA can confirm whether this is true.
Premier said their school funding goes over 90% to public schools and agreeing to Gonski would give more money to private schools. I have some sympathy for this view, if it’s true.]
Basically correct. The State does not want to get further into funding private education and the current commitment is most unwillingly given. Not so long ago, the State made no contribution to private schooling at all. I suspect Richard Court started it off.
Rua,
Driscoll should have quoted Barnaby rather than Dr Evil
briefly
[ Not so long ago, the State made no contribution to private schooling at all. I suspect Richard Court started it off.]
Strange, considering he and his wife are so involved with MLC.
Suspect No 1 died in Beth Israel hospital. If he is an Islamist, there’s a fine irony there.
mexicanbeemer@1638
Not only are you talking arrant nonsense – you know its garbage.
The Liberals’ fawning to News Ltd reinforces the message in the picture of Abbott – sucking up to Murdoch and Rinehart & Co – to the detriment of the vast majority of other Australians.
That image trumps any Liberal who rabbits on about Gillard and ‘faceless’ union leaders.
What part is rubbish the bit about networking or something else
One suspects you may have missed the subtle intent for yes networking is an important part of any person in a leadership role.
mexicanbeemer@1643
Someone who may be our nations PM on his knees at the feet of murdoch.
abbott’s not in a “networking’ position. He’s in a totally supplicant position.
The relative positions are accurate – master and servant and abbott is not the master.
mexicanbeemer@1637
He is on his knees – rolling over comes IF he is elected – then murdoch lines up to demand payment.
Or do you think newscorp’s boosting of abbott comes free?
Dave
And that goes to the line
“A strong politician surely knows how to network without being a puppet”
[Rhys Muldoon Loving how @vanOnselenP is now an enemy of the most vocal proponents of free speech a few weeks ago.
#auspol]
[1640
poroti
briefly
Not so long ago, the State made no contribution to private schooling at all. I suspect Richard Court started it off.
Strange, considering he and his wife are so involved with MLC.]
I think he will put the state budget before his own pocket.
[Rhys Muldoon Loving how @vanOnselenP is now an enemy of the most vocal proponents of free speech a few weeks ago.
#auspol]
Like who? Has the DT turned on him?
I’ve read a lot of nonsense on the web in my time, but the gleeful noises from right-wingers around the web this evening -including on this forum – about one of the alleged bombers wearing a Che T shirt has got to be the silliest – and sickest things I have ever see.
There have been politically-minded sickos from both ends of the spectrum who have committed disgusting and heartless acts of mass murder. Anyway, the suggestion that jihadism is somehow connected to the political left is ludicrous: a political philosophy more conservative that Islamic fundamentalism is unimaginable.
I guess we’ll find out more about these people soon, but let’s not jump to conlusions. Who really knows what motivated them; perhaps we’ll never know for certain. Maybe they are more like Leopold and Loeb than anything else.
Dreadful business, all of it.