The biggest head-turner to emerge from the latest batch of polls was Labor’s sub-30% primary vote in Nielsen, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate in fact records a slight improvement this week for Labor, who appear to be trending back to equilibrium after last month’s leadership crisis. As well as Nielsen, the aggregate has been updated with results from Galaxy, Morgan and Essential (there was also last night’s ReachTEL poll for Channel Seven, but I haven’t included this as I don’t yet have enough data for ReachTEL to determine bias and accuracy weightings). Nielsen’s breakdowns have also allowed for the state relativities to be revised.
Speaking of which, I thought it might be illuminating to plot how the mainland states have been tracking relative to the national polling since the 2010 election. The following charts do so with reference to Labor’s two-party vote. Keep in mind that this measures the states’ deviance from the national result, and not simply the level of Labor support – so a flat line tells us not that support for Labor in that state has been steady, but that the ups and downs have closely matched the national results (as they usually do).
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The most obvious point to emerge is that Queensland is the odd man out on account of its volatile trendline. This relates to the “smooth” function displayed at the top left of each chart, reflecting the smoothness of the line which most meaningfully represents the scattered data points (in the estimation of my stats program, going off something called the AICc criterion). Where the trend is either consistent or non-existent, as it is for the other four states, the smoothing parameter is high and the line fairly straight. But where there is a distinct pattern to the variation, as in the case of Queensland, the number lowers to produce a line variable enough to follow the trend (different smoothing parameters also explain why the Coalition’s primary vote trendline on BludgerTrack is smoother than Labor’s).
The Queensland exception is down to a fairly clear 3% sag for Labor from March to July 2012, which happens to be coincide with the immediate aftermath of their devastating state election defeat. This seems to suggest that temporary static from Queensland state politics added over half a point to the Coalition blowout in the national result at this time, which can be clearly observed on BludgerTrack. It should be noted that this week’s Nielsen result is the only data point for Queensland since last month’s Labor leadership crisis, and it’s solidly lower than anything recorded since November. BludgerTrack will need more than one 350-sample result before it draws any conclusions, but the Nielsen result may point to a downturn the Queensland trendline is yet to catch up with.
Something similar may also be happening in South Australia, where Labor’s downward turn since late last year would be much sharper with a lower smoothing parameter. If forthcoming results for this state remain poor for Labor, their already weak projection will deteriorate fairly rapidly.
Other news:
• Barnaby Joyce had a clear 150-10 win over local IT businessman David Gregory in the Nationals preselection for Tony Windsor’s seat of New England, conducted after the withdrawal of Richard Torbay. The LNP will now have to choose a (presumably Nationals-aligned) candidate to fill Joyce’s casual Senate vacancy when he resigns to the contest the election, with the winner to serve out the remainder of a Senate term that will end in mid-2017.
• WA Labor has determined the order of its Senate election ticket, the top two positions going to Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Assocation state president Joe Bullock and incumbent Louise Pratt, in that order. Bullock takes the seat designated for the SDA from the man he succeeded as the union’s state secretary, Mark Bishop, who bowed out of the race on Monday in recognition that he faced certain defeat. Bullock’s success in securing the top position was the contentious fruit of an arrangement between the Right faction SDA and the largest Left union, United Voice, which secured the state lower house seat of Fremantle for United Voice faction member Simone McGurk at the expense of Adrian Evans of the insurgent Maritime Union of Australia. Pratt’s demotion from top of the ticket in 2007 is more than symbolic, as there are fears Labor’s vote in WA is so weak it can’t be guaranteed a second seat. Former state upper house MP Jon Ford, who is associated with the United Voice’s main Left rival, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, complained that the SDA-United Voice deal very nearly led to Pratt being excluded altogether.
• Also determined by the Labor state executive was the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Evans, which will stay in the United Voice fold by going to Sue Lines, a WA-raised but Sydney-based official with the union.
• Labor’s state executive also chose candidates for four lower house seats, three of which would be winnable under normal circumstances. Hasluck will be contested the aforementioned Adrian Evans of the MUA, whose partisans reportedly account for a quarter of the state party’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled their numbers from 150 to 850. There will be more on Hasluck in Friday’s Seat of the Week. The other candidates are lawyer Tristan Cockman in Cowan, Victoria Park deputy mayor John Bissett in Swan and, in the safely conservative regional seat of Durack, Fitzroy Crossing musician and party activist Daron Keogh.
• The Liberals have a new candidate for the Melbourne hinterland seat of McEwen after their initial nominee, Ben Collier, withdrew due to “unforeseen family circumstances”. The party’s administrative committee unanimously chose as his successor Donna Petrovich, a member of the state upper house for Northern Victoria region and former mayor of Macedon Ranges. Sue Hewitt of the Northern Weekly was able to confirm that ReachTEL had earlier conducted a poll of the electorate on behalf of an undisclosed client gauging name recognition for Collier and Petrovich. Petrovich will relinquish her seat in the upper house on June 30.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Liberal internal polling has them leading 56-44 in the Labor-held Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce, with the primary votes at 29% for Labor’s Anna Burke and 48% for the Liberal candidate in Chisholm, and 32% for Alan Griffin against 48% for the Liberals in Bruce.
• Former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad has won preselection to replace retiring Nationals member John Forrest in Mallee. The other candidates were Swan Hill councillor Michael Adamson, Buloke mayor Reid Mather, Horsham farmer Russell McKenzie and Mildura resident Anne Webster. Swan Hill deputy mayor Greg Cruickshank was a late withdrawal. The Liberals are yet to determine whether they will field a candidate.
mexicanbeemer@1646
I agree – abbott has failed to do so. Totally.
One report says it is a philosophy student which excludes a right winger as there is no money in philosophy
Does this mean Alan Jones was right?
[Anyway, the suggestion that jihadism is somehow connected to the political left is ludicrous]
It’s not a bit ludicrous. A significant section of the western far left has fallen in love with jihadism, as the only force which is doing what they have neither the means nor the courage to do, namely kill Americans and Israelis.
I thought he said “philately student”.
Unless it is the collected wisdom of George Soros.
[Just got off a plane – has it been established whether the Boston bombers are or were (a) Islamists (b) extreme rightist (c) extreme leftists (d) Fox News staff?]
(b) and (d) are one and the same
Psephos, keep fighting the good fight!
Let me get this straight.
If it turns out they’re some ridiculously anachronistic Weather Underground wannabe groupuscule, Alan Jones and Compact Crank wins.
If they’re McVeigh/Brevikesque ‘Lone’ Wolves then the PB leftist hivemind wins.
If they turn out to be home-grown Islamist converts I think we can call it even. Under protest.
There. Partisaned this tragedy enough for you? I can’t believe THIS is the issue people are concerned about. Fucking hell.
Associated Press says they are Chechens. That was an unexpected development.
[poroti
Posted Friday, April 19, 2013 at 7:54 pm | PERMALINK
Mick77
Ok dave 1622, I give up. What’s ipa?
In my field IPA = isopropyl alcohol]
or International Paediatric Association
AP: The one on the run is Dzhokar Tsarnaev, a Russian from Chechnya or somewhere in that area.
absolutetwaddle@1658
For whats its worth – precisely which posts are you talking about ?
WTF would anyone know ?
The Boston CBS feed has only just given a foreign sounding name but in a nation of migrants WTF does that mean atm?
Lets wait and get the facts.
Breaking: Suspect Two is wearing a Sponge Bob t-shirt.
(I mean really!)
Psephos
[It’s not a bit ludicrous. A significant section of the western far left has fallen in love with jihadism, as the only force which is doing what they have neither the means nor the courage to do, namely kill Americans and Israelis.]
And Deblonay can probably give us their names and addresses.
or any of these:
Independent Practice Association
Individual Practice Association
International Psychoanalytical Associa…
Independent Physician Association
International Pediatric Association
International Psychogeriatric Associat…
intrapulmonary artery
idiopathic premature adrenarche
idiopathic pulmonary arteriosclerosis
iInvasive pulmonary aspergillosis
immunoperoxidase
immunoperoxidase antibody
immunoperoxidase assay
immunoprecipitation assay
Impact on Participation and Autonomy
incontinentia pigmenti achromians
Independent Practice Associations
Independent Practitioner Association
Independent Provider Association
Indiana Pharmacists Alliance
indices of platelet activation
indole-3-propionic acid
indole-3-pyruvic acid
infantile papular acrodermatitis
inferior phrenic artery
Information Processing Ability
integrated pulse amperometry
interference pattern analysis
internal pudendal artery
International Paediatric Association
or these:
International Paruresis Association
International Pharmaceutical Associati…
International Pompe Association
International Psychoanalytic Associati…
interpleural analgesia
interpretative phenomenological analys…
intimate partner abuse
intralobar pulmonary arteries
Intrapleural analgesia
intrapulmonary airways
intrapulmonary arteries
invasion plasmid antigen
invasion plasmid antigens
invasion plasmid-coded antigens
invasive pulmonary aspergillosis
Iowa Pharmacy Association
ipamorelin
irrigation pipe-associated
isopentenyladenine
isopentenyladenosine
isopropanol
isopropylamine
isopropylantipyrine
Israel Pain Association
The lesson being: DONT USE TLAs
Psephos, the question we want answered is, who wins?
[And Deblonay can probably give us their names and addresses.]
You might well say that. I couldn’t possibly comment.
BOSTON: AUTHORITIES SAY THE 2 BOSTON MARATHON BOMBING SUSPECTS ARE BROTHERS FROM CHECHEN ORIGINALLY. NBC. #911BUFF
ML
[The lesson being: DONT USE TLAs]
TLAs???
LOL
Gee, Mod can’t even follow Mod’s own advice :P.
[BOSTON: AUTHORITIES SAY THE 2 BOSTON MARATHON BOMBING SUSPECTS ARE BROTHERS FROM CHECHEN ORIGINALLY. NBC. #911BUFF]
Huh? So who was the guy alive face down after MIT shooting? Who are the 2 named suspects, one of whom was lauded by his sister … did they all change their names? What is Deblonay’s real name and has he been posting from Boston lately?
[1653
Psephos
…A significant section of the western far left has fallen in love….]
Really, is there any such thing as a western far left, let alone a section of it that could be regarded as significant?
Where are these lefties? I suspect they dwell only in the imaginations of Mick and CC.
The Chechen separatists have a long record of terrorism in Russia, but why they would stage an attack in the US is a bit of a mystery. But Chechens are of course Muslims, so maybe they’ve been recruited from Chechen nationalism to jihadism.
[DisplayName
Posted Friday, April 19, 2013 at 8:59 pm | PERMALINK
Gee, Mod can’t even follow Mod’s own advice]
I am a medico….do as I say, not as I do :devil:
infirm pederast askholes
Psephos @ 1673…perhaps they were motivated only by a desire for publicity. In this case, they have had ample success.
briefly@1672
And Psephos who originally said that.
Of course there are the ever present Trots and other fringe dwellers but they are just a bunch of wannabes who usually grow out of it.
Anarchists, would be my guess.
briefly
[Where are these lefties? I suspect they dwell only in the imaginations of Mick and CC.]
If only. Seriously briefly, the vitriolic hatred against Jews (yes Jews, nothing to do with politics) by the far left, in coordination with the activist muslims on campuses here, USA, Canada and particularly UK is frightening and reminiscent of the Nazi era. Many Jewish students experience real physical fear and many dare not wear skullcaps if they are religious. The university authorities are a mixed bag when it comes to controlling the radicals and the islamic hate.
Psephos@1653
Yes, some idiotic America-hating lefties sympathize with jihadism. These same people ran around blaming Salman Rushdie for the death sentence passed on him by Khomenei.
I don’t like lefties much as a rule and these people are despicable.
But Islamic fundamentalism is nevertheless a far right view of the world.
[Anarchists, would be my guess.]
F*ckwit losers would be mine.
Funny how so many have an opinion on the motivations of the two bombers. This much seems to be the latest intel … they are two brothers from Chechen. Beyond that it is all pure speculation. Patience, my dears, patience …
Boston Bombers were Chechens?? That’s freaky. Their motivations will be interesting to hear about its ever worked out what the were.
[But Islamic fundamentalism is nevertheless a far right view of the world.]
I don’t think Islamism has anything to do with left or right, or secular western political categories at all. It’s a religious ideology. Some of its tenets, like oppression of women and homophobia, align with the western extreme right, but others, like hatred of the US and Israel, align with the western far left.
[Anarchists, would be my guess.
F*ckwit losers would be mine]
Concur.
fess,
There was some motivation. We’ll find out what.
“F*ckwit” does not show motivation.
Rather than Chechens they might be Dags
Did anyone just see Tom Waterhouse stuttering when talking about Sunday’s rugby leage game?
I think some people here never stopped fighting the cold war.
meher baba
[I don’t like lefties much as a rule and these people are despicable. But Islamic fundamentalism is nevertheless a far right view of the world.]
That is what is so staggering about the FarLeft-jihadist alliance. The useful idiots from the left don’t realise that their views on gays, freedom of religion, women’s rights etc are anathema to the jihadists and their heads will be chopped off as well along with the rest of us. What unites them is hatred for America and Israel and all else is subordinate to that for the time being.
This is a good overview of Chechen Terrorism (Russia, Chechnya, Separatist)
http://www.cfr.org/terrorism/chechen-terrorism-russia-chechnya-separatist/p9181
The dead brother is reported to be Tamerlan Tsarnaev.
This is his youtube channel
http://www.youtube.com/user/muazseyfullah
Unfortunately it was while he was talking about the city/country game – I suspect it will be on clip shows for the next 20 years
Oakeshott Country@1688
Was he still smiling ?
[This is his youtube channel]
If that’s true it confirms that they’re Islamists.
So if the reported names are correct, islamist Fwits. Sad.
Assuming ther were Islamists stand by for an unhinging by FoxNews and right wing shockjocks over there.
Apparently one of them signed a petition about being able to keep chooks, if that is any help.
Is it me, or does Tony’s throat cutting Mate look like the Banjo Playing Kid from Deliverance ?