The biggest head-turner to emerge from the latest batch of polls was Labor’s sub-30% primary vote in Nielsen, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate in fact records a slight improvement this week for Labor, who appear to be trending back to equilibrium after last month’s leadership crisis. As well as Nielsen, the aggregate has been updated with results from Galaxy, Morgan and Essential (there was also last night’s ReachTEL poll for Channel Seven, but I haven’t included this as I don’t yet have enough data for ReachTEL to determine bias and accuracy weightings). Nielsen’s breakdowns have also allowed for the state relativities to be revised.
Speaking of which, I thought it might be illuminating to plot how the mainland states have been tracking relative to the national polling since the 2010 election. The following charts do so with reference to Labor’s two-party vote. Keep in mind that this measures the states’ deviance from the national result, and not simply the level of Labor support – so a flat line tells us not that support for Labor in that state has been steady, but that the ups and downs have closely matched the national results (as they usually do).
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The most obvious point to emerge is that Queensland is the odd man out on account of its volatile trendline. This relates to the “smooth” function displayed at the top left of each chart, reflecting the smoothness of the line which most meaningfully represents the scattered data points (in the estimation of my stats program, going off something called the AICc criterion). Where the trend is either consistent or non-existent, as it is for the other four states, the smoothing parameter is high and the line fairly straight. But where there is a distinct pattern to the variation, as in the case of Queensland, the number lowers to produce a line variable enough to follow the trend (different smoothing parameters also explain why the Coalition’s primary vote trendline on BludgerTrack is smoother than Labor’s).
The Queensland exception is down to a fairly clear 3% sag for Labor from March to July 2012, which happens to be coincide with the immediate aftermath of their devastating state election defeat. This seems to suggest that temporary static from Queensland state politics added over half a point to the Coalition blowout in the national result at this time, which can be clearly observed on BludgerTrack. It should be noted that this week’s Nielsen result is the only data point for Queensland since last month’s Labor leadership crisis, and it’s solidly lower than anything recorded since November. BludgerTrack will need more than one 350-sample result before it draws any conclusions, but the Nielsen result may point to a downturn the Queensland trendline is yet to catch up with.
Something similar may also be happening in South Australia, where Labor’s downward turn since late last year would be much sharper with a lower smoothing parameter. If forthcoming results for this state remain poor for Labor, their already weak projection will deteriorate fairly rapidly.
Other news:
• Barnaby Joyce had a clear 150-10 win over local IT businessman David Gregory in the Nationals preselection for Tony Windsor’s seat of New England, conducted after the withdrawal of Richard Torbay. The LNP will now have to choose a (presumably Nationals-aligned) candidate to fill Joyce’s casual Senate vacancy when he resigns to the contest the election, with the winner to serve out the remainder of a Senate term that will end in mid-2017.
• WA Labor has determined the order of its Senate election ticket, the top two positions going to Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Assocation state president Joe Bullock and incumbent Louise Pratt, in that order. Bullock takes the seat designated for the SDA from the man he succeeded as the union’s state secretary, Mark Bishop, who bowed out of the race on Monday in recognition that he faced certain defeat. Bullock’s success in securing the top position was the contentious fruit of an arrangement between the Right faction SDA and the largest Left union, United Voice, which secured the state lower house seat of Fremantle for United Voice faction member Simone McGurk at the expense of Adrian Evans of the insurgent Maritime Union of Australia. Pratt’s demotion from top of the ticket in 2007 is more than symbolic, as there are fears Labor’s vote in WA is so weak it can’t be guaranteed a second seat. Former state upper house MP Jon Ford, who is associated with the United Voice’s main Left rival, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, complained that the SDA-United Voice deal very nearly led to Pratt being excluded altogether.
• Also determined by the Labor state executive was the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Evans, which will stay in the United Voice fold by going to Sue Lines, a WA-raised but Sydney-based official with the union.
• Labor’s state executive also chose candidates for four lower house seats, three of which would be winnable under normal circumstances. Hasluck will be contested the aforementioned Adrian Evans of the MUA, whose partisans reportedly account for a quarter of the state party’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled their numbers from 150 to 850. There will be more on Hasluck in Friday’s Seat of the Week. The other candidates are lawyer Tristan Cockman in Cowan, Victoria Park deputy mayor John Bissett in Swan and, in the safely conservative regional seat of Durack, Fitzroy Crossing musician and party activist Daron Keogh.
• The Liberals have a new candidate for the Melbourne hinterland seat of McEwen after their initial nominee, Ben Collier, withdrew due to “unforeseen family circumstances”. The party’s administrative committee unanimously chose as his successor Donna Petrovich, a member of the state upper house for Northern Victoria region and former mayor of Macedon Ranges. Sue Hewitt of the Northern Weekly was able to confirm that ReachTEL had earlier conducted a poll of the electorate on behalf of an undisclosed client gauging name recognition for Collier and Petrovich. Petrovich will relinquish her seat in the upper house on June 30.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Liberal internal polling has them leading 56-44 in the Labor-held Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce, with the primary votes at 29% for Labor’s Anna Burke and 48% for the Liberal candidate in Chisholm, and 32% for Alan Griffin against 48% for the Liberals in Bruce.
• Former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad has won preselection to replace retiring Nationals member John Forrest in Mallee. The other candidates were Swan Hill councillor Michael Adamson, Buloke mayor Reid Mather, Horsham farmer Russell McKenzie and Mildura resident Anne Webster. Swan Hill deputy mayor Greg Cruickshank was a late withdrawal. The Liberals are yet to determine whether they will field a candidate.
Perhaps someone from WA can confirm whether this is true.
Premier said their school funding goes over 90% to public schools and agreeing to Gonski would give more money to private schools. I have some sympathy for this view, if it’s true.
The other alleged bomber went missing in March. So his friends did this
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=t12tfTJ10bU&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dt12tfTJ10bU
Interesting thread you could weave between Abbott’s professed concern for indigenous people, his Policy Director’s remarks and the Gillard Bravery Award “riot” by the Aboriginal Embassy people.
So much for taking Cabinet (if he wins) to stay in outback dongas with the nations true Aussies.
No wonder Abbott’s freakin’ out. Indigenous policy is supposed to be one of his trademarks and his chief policy bloke has just let it be known that they’re going to cut the throat of one of the main players.
Mick77
Sorry I understand now, you are crap with money like most Libs so you let your wife make all the decisions.
Finns
[Two suspect in MIT shooting. One in custody. Grenades thrown. Could be the two suspects from the marathon bombing (purely my own speculation the last sentence).]
Looks like I’m rIGHt again. 😀
[GeorgeMonbiot @GeorgeMonbiot 2m
Head of Nestle: #water is not a human right, but “a foodstuff like any other”.]
This is a shocking attitude. And it’s wrong.
Classic conservative logic on Sky. Someone on the panel reckons that the lowering of the entry level to teaching is caused by smaller classes.
Just got polled by Q&A Research.
Questions largely focussed on my electorate as questions asked about Lib and ALP candidates. Also question about Napthine, Abbott and Gillard.
I suspect it was a Lib internal poll and I didn’t give them much joy. 😀
Diogenes
What pure speculation? I had linked tweets and live news stream from Boston, there was a huge operation under way. Of course, it was to do with the bombing. It was pretty obvious
TRuawake
[Sorry I understand now, you are crap with money like most Libs so you let your wife make all the decisions.]
I’m not a Lib but they’ll get my vote this time, which they didn’t the last two times. And I’ve noticed how good the ALP is with (our) money.
From the video of the guy the Boston police had on the ground he looked mighty white to me.
Now that we finally have on the record that Abbott’s Office is prepared to do contra-deals with the press — it begs the question whether previous offers have been made — and if so, were they accepted?
Perhaps a few pointed questions to some press gallery types may give rise to some interesting (non-) answers.
It will certainly explain the very favourable coverage Mr Abbott has enjoyed.
Additionally, it appears that PM Gillard’s Office has been unprepared to enter into such deals (or even telegraph its intentions re: leadership to the press).
Certainly would explain why she has been vilified by them and why Rudd (serial leaker extraordinaire) has been their preferred ALP leader…
[Diogenes
What pure speculation? I had linked tweets and live news stream from Boston, there was a huge operation under way. Of course, it was to do with the bombing. It was pretty obvious]
Certainly most folk with half a brain saw this as more than a coincidence but were equally restrained to wait until there is evidence before formally linking the two.
Stick to tree surgery Mr Dio! 😉
ru
Yep. costello’s father in law.
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/breaking-ettridge-serves-abbotts-afhp-associates-peter-coleman-and-trevor-kennedy/
Another policeman – transit police shot and wounded.
Better live video fed here –
http://boston.cbslocal.com/live-video/
Gun Lobby Buys Senators in USA
____________________________
The Guardian looks at the ways the US Senators were bribed in the recently defeated vote for gun control by Obama
______
Actually…
Recent info shows that in last US election …John McCain e.e….got 3/4 of a million and many other got similar amounts
That Lobby pays very well for those who support Israel..
It all shows the absolute corruption of the USA..that gun nutters and the agents of a foreign power can control the US congress
BOSTON: WHDH REPORTING EXCLUSIVELY FIRST BOSTON BOMBING SUSPECT DECEASED. #911BUFF
Darren Laver @1562
So how do you think the ALP, Greens and Dependents manage their dealings with Journos – just tell them stuff for nothing? – no strings attached? – no limits on disclosing sources?
C’mon – out with your holier-than-though pure-as-the-driven-snow whiter-than-white Journo relationship management strategy and procedures.
Evening all.
[BOSTON: WHDH REPORTING EXCLUSIVELY FIRST BOSTON BOMBING SUSPECT DECEASED. #911BUFF]
WTF?
confessions
dave’s @1565 link is a live feed from Boston, local CBS station
How The Lobbies control US policy
_________________This artiocle looks at the huge amounts spent by the zionist lobby to effect US policy
A humourist once said///””In the USA an honest politician is oine …who when he is bought..stays bought
That certainly applies to Guns and Israel
http://www.ihr.org/leaflets/jewishlobby.shtml
[Darren Laver @1562
So how do you think the ALP, Greens and Dependents manage their dealings with Journos – just tell them stuff for nothing? – no strings attached? – no limits on disclosing sources?
C’mon – out with your holier-than-though pure-as-the-driven-snow whiter-than-white Journo relationship management strategy and procedures.]
Well even if they have done such deals as you assert, they’ve been had — because the press certainly haven’t held up their end of your alledged deals!
From their ABC to Murdoch via Fairfax and hate radio, there is not a single mainstream media outlet in Australia that has not personally vilified the Prime Minister and her government.
Mr Abbott and his ragbag coalition of opposition parties have received coverage that money could not even buy.
CC – if the ALP were at all successful in ‘managing their dealings with Journos’, shouldn’t there be some evidence of this?
And I dare say there’s a little bit of a difference between “strings attached” and “don’t print that story and we’ll give you a back rub”.
When you get evidence of ALP figures bribing or threatening journos to stop stories being printed feel free to raise your evidence so we can all agree how terrible it is. I certainly think it stinks regardless of who it is.
The major political news on 10 was Abbott sacking er sorry demoting, his advisor.
Well done Tony, why did you lie this morning to get around it?
Lizzie #1551 Barnett said that at his press conference today.
Compact Crank@1568
Plant bugs on all politicians!
Thanks poroti. Onto it now.
ruawake
[Well done Tony, why did you lie this morning to get around it?]
Saying black is white is as natural as breathing for Abbott.
This is the second time evidence has come to hand of Abbott trying to stop a news story being run.
The first was shit happens, now this. How many other stories have been buried and is this why leaks from Abbotts office are becoming ho hum.
Actually, talking about strings attached – that was the topic of the most recent Media Watch.
All I could think of while watching MW was – well if the journos stood up and said ‘we’re not going to accept any conditions on publishing your info’ all that would happen is they might get the story 24 hours later but be able to give an accurate analysis and provide adequate responses from all stakeholders. Now wouldn’t that be terrible.
If the journos gave up on this idea that they have to be first to publish all the time – which, with Twitter et al, is a battle they have already lost – they wouldn’t be in a position of being manipulated by either side and might be able to do their freaking jobs.
DL and Jackol @1572/3 – you really do live in a rather pretty ivory tower don’t you.
Are you really telling me you have no idea about how Journos and Politicians on all sides relate?
[Scott Driscoll has resigned from the LNP ]
Oh dear, poor Campbell. Loose cannon time.
Re: Barnett and funding non-government schools
As I understand it the proposed plan is for the Feds and States to put money into a common pool, with the Feds putting in 2/3 and the States putting in 1/3, and then that pool is used to fund students according to the base + loadings.
Yes, in principle that means that state funding put into the pool would go in part to independent schools, but it seems like a meaningless objection given the Feds put money into independent schools and government schools.
CC – you keep arguing positions you can’t defend. Is it a good thing for journalists to be offered inducements by politicians to not print a story?
It’s a simple question.
I think the answer is that it is not a good thing, and should be condemned.
I don’t care if it’s an ALP politician or a Greens politician or someone from Tony bloody Abbott’s office, it’s something that we should object to.
Again, if you can show an ALP politician or their office has been doing this fill us in on the details, let it all come out. Expose this practice and stamp it out.
Scott Driscoll message to the LNP
Wow Rua,
Driscoll really has the s#%ts. Very sad for the runt and his lnp mates
[Australia is the strongest performing economy in the developed world.]
True Centre, and this is what Swan should be saying all day and every day – just this, nothing else.
HN @1587 …and the Coalition will keep poitning out that it could have been even better if not for the ALP and Greens.
[HN @1587 …and the Coalition will keep poitning out that it could have been even better if not for the ALP and Greens.]
How given that policy statements by Malcolm Turnbull would have led to a recession in Australia, with a million more unemployed?
Compact Crank
[
HN @1587 …and the Coalition will keep poitning out that it could have been even better if not for the ALP and Greens.]
Yeah just like copper would be faster than optic fiber if it wasn’t for reality.
[Head of Nestle: #water is not a human right, but “a foodstuff like any other”.
This is a shocking attitude. And it’s wrong.]
Nestle had the name ‘babykillers’ decades ago Lizzie – I still won’t buy their chocolate
Gonski is going the way of the:
Rudd Reformation of the Health System
East Timorese Illegal Entrant Processing Centre
Cash for Clunkers
Peoples Climate Change Love In
Malaysian Illegal Entrant Solution
Medicare Gold
Mining Tax
Is she good or what?
poroti @1590 – who ever said Cu allowed faster transmission of signals than optical fibre?
Tee Hee
The Libs are throwing out all the unicorn crap they have today. I wonder why? 😉
1590
poroti
[>HN @1587 …and the Coalition will keep poitning out that it could have been even better if not for the ALP and Greens.
Yeah just like copper would be faster than optic fiber if it wasn’t for reality.]
And interest rates will always be lower under a Liberal government.
For promoting their baby formula as preferable to breast milk to mothers in the third world – they didn’t care that unsafe water was often used and the formula was often made too weak for sustenance.
hairy nose
Yes, and also that we are AAA credit rated by the three credit agencies for the first time under “Labor” and how about… Swan giving himself a wrap?
C’mon Swan, the world’s best treasurer – Labor 2 (Keating + Swan) – Coalition and Cozzie ZIP!
How about Abbott in 2004, there will be no change to IR laws, we have no plans to change anything.
Picture of Boston Bombing Sudpect in a Che Guevera T-Shirt released.
You can kiss good bye to your leftist fantasy of a Right Wing Nut Job being responsible.
Ernie Bridge’s state funeral was today.
[Those who loved and respected him noted more than once at his State funeral this morning that Ernest Francis Bridge had an extraordinary ability to make friends and keep them.
Few observing the eclectic group of up to 1000 mourners packing Arena Joondalup – including three former premiers, a supermodel, a former AFL footballer and elders from the far north Warmun community – would disagree.
Governor Malcolm McCusker led the official tributes to the former Kimberley MP and cabinet minister known as Ernie, who died on Easter Sunday aged 76 from mesothelioma.]
As I posted this morning, in a recent speech McCusker whitewashed indigenous massacres and deaths from the history of the establishment of our nation and was rightly chipped for it by Labor deputy leader in parliament.
I’m sure the Governor would’ve been more sensitive today however. Hopefully his recent transgression was a oncer.