The Australian reports the Coalition’s lead in Newspoll has blown out to 58-42, from primary votes of 30% for Labor (down four on the previous fortnight’s result) and 50% for the Coalition (up six) and 10% for the Greens (down one). There has also been a big move to Tony Abbott on preferred prime minister, going from 42-38 behind to 43-35 ahead – remembering that the result of the previous poll was well above the trend for Labor. More to follow.
UPDATE: Julia Gillard has recorded her worst personal ratings since September 2011, while Tony Abbott’s ratings are the best they have been since the middle of that year. Gillard is down six on approval to 26% and up eight on disapproval to 65%, while Tony Abbott is up three to 39% and down five to 50%.
[So if Abbott becomes PM, gains Senate Control and has three terms to do as he wishes, don’t forget your principles. That outcome is still better than the outside chance of PM Rudd]
Long Abbott winter coming, those principles will keep the cold out 🙂
If you want to look on the bright side, there are 42 Cabinet Ministers, outer ministers and Parliamentary Secretary positions (pre-third makeup today) so if this Newspoll is translated into the election results and you end up with 37 seats, everyone gets a Ministry!
You can hardly blame the voters for reacting this way to the spectacle of ministerial betrayal. These people were supposed to have a shared responsibility for the care and safekeeping of the country. Instead, they are revealed as schemers and cheats. Far from inspiring trust, they have shown they cannot be trusted at all.
The plotters have dishonoured themselves, their party and the offices they held. They are completely disgraceful.
Now for my serious response.
There are two possible ways to look at this poll
1) The voters now know Kevin is finished and are totally preeved off and now the voters will turn off and turn out resulting in a prolonged drop in ALP support.
2) The Government gets unified and focuses on the economy and each moth improves its vote by 1% per month and loses the election 52-48.
Piping Shrike’s real name is Nigel.
Thanks Kevin! 🙂
MOFOS I picked 58/42 in the BludgerTrack thread
The only person who can save Labor is Kevin Rudd with his name changed to Julian Gillard to appease the Gillardistas.
Carey
I keep telling people those SMS messages are bad news!
TP, you really are a complete cretin.
[The Labor apparatchiks may not actually be unhappy with this result – the Labor PV could have had a 2 in front – which after last weeks fiasco would not have been a surprise.]
Well with MOE that is the scary thing..it could easily have a 2 in front of it. But you would think there is a rusted on base that cannot be breached…maybe we will find out just where that is.
Piping Shrike writes a very good analysis, something the PB crowd should study.
Cant wait to see the Bludgertrack update William! Triple figures I reckon….
Good night all.
Why is Newspoll so volatile and out of line with Galaxy & Essential?…
Anyway …no election until September ..so with clear air I expect Julia & the ALP to cream Abbotts motley crew of seat warmers and talentless policy nonentities…
Go Julia… 🙂 🙂
Rossmore @ 23
[The nightmare scenario for the Tories is that last week’s events do indeed prove to be the much needed circuit breaker.]
So you haven’t seen the tweets about Albo then?
[Mod Lib
Posted Monday, March 25, 2013 at 11:23 pm | PERMALINK
If you want to look on the bright side, there are 42 Cabinet Ministers, outer ministers and Parliamentary Secretary positions (pre-third makeup today) so if this Newspoll is translated into the election results and you end up with 37 seats, everyone gets a Ministry!]
Think of the leaking when the post election blood bath starts lol and that before Gillard and Rudd commence publishing wars 🙂
Wow, 50% primary vote for the Coalition?! To be honest, I think this is probably a bit too high, like the last newspoll was a bit too low. 56/44 is probably right on the money.
Actually ShownsOn the only person that can save the ALP is Tone and the mother of all gaffes.
The Government basically now has to govern for its future and by that i mean put in place the steps that it can use to defend itself against a first term Government.
What annoys me about this poll is not the diabolical 2PP. its the fact that Galaxy and Essential did not move, but this poll will be regarded as THE poll that shows the government diving, and THAT will be the OM meme re last week
I agree with the summation even if the author was trying for irony. Hit the nail on the head even if unintentional.
I was expecting way worse given the instability plastered across the evening news and front pages.
So yes I do think the summation is correct. I may be proven wrong but I do seriously think we are looking at basement level polls.
With Labor Unity 2pp will go up. The only qustion is how long will it take and will that be in time to win the election.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Nielsen Poll NSW State 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 63 ALP 37 #nswpol #auspol
WOW…more good news!
I think part of the reason we’ve seen a bigger reaction in Newspoll is that people have had a few days to digest and reflect upon the events of late last week.
Mod Lib@61
Mine “only” went to 55.3 even after I decided to stop docking Galaxy a point.
Reckon there’ll be some really nasty Lib/Nat trolling here this week – trolls tend to be emboldened by such Newspolls.
[But you would think there is a rusted on base that cannot be breached…maybe we will find out just where that is.]
TP, the essential poll this afternoon had figures on those polled changing votes – the Libs have roughly 85% locked in (as locked in as they can be 6 months out) – that in itself is scary. A mild salvation for Labor is that the Greens vote seems to be very soft.
[Andrew
Posted Monday, March 25, 2013 at 11:27 pm | PERMALINK
What annoys me about this poll is not the diabolical 2PP. its the fact that Galaxy and Essential did not move, but this poll will be regarded as THE poll that shows the government diving, and THAT will be the OM meme re last week]
Wipe that tear away…. This was the poll that saved Gillard last week as well.
rummel
Rudd should start writing his memoirs now. He’s got plenty of time on his hands.
It could be One Hundred Years of Solitude, although I think that’s already taken. 😉
Yup, I don’t trust the polling at present, and haven’t been, since labor win power in 2007.
(NSW Polling as well just now).
[Mod Lib
Posted Monday, March 25, 2013 at 11:23 pm | PERMALINK
If you want to look on the bright side, there are 42 Cabinet Ministers, outer ministers and Parliamentary Secretary positions (pre-third makeup today) so if this Newspoll is translated into the election results and you end up with 37 seats, everyone gets a Ministry!]
…actually, it looks like that webpage has been updated for this third Ministerial makeup this year (have there ever been four in one year?). So, everyone gets a position and 5 will have to double up.
Rupert’s newspaper trying to lure readers with it’s big n bouncy newspolls. Cor, get a load of ’em!!
Andrew that is a good question and as i have written before the current set of polls only really matter to us political types, the real polls are post budget.
The only thing this poll does is shows that the voters are unimpressed now i don’t think this Government is bad enough to suffer a 58-42 result but the voters are serious preeved and that will take time to wash out if it does at all.
The stupidity of all this is, if the right were willing to give up their need for total control and allow a proper caucus vote without the Mafia standover tactics..we would have Rudd PM and polls far far better than they are, and not risking a decade in Opposition.
I was in Melbourne for a conference last week during the spill that wasn’t. I was with a few others who were either involved in politics, if not directly with parties… it was a very anxious afternoon, to say the least. As it came to an anti-climactic end, we came to the conclusion that was the stupidest turn of political events ever and, well, no civil words can describe how we felt… (although Lib friends were very much clearly saying “thanks for the final boost, Labor”)
Mind you, even if Rudd was going to challenge, Crean should’ve made his spiel after question time on Thursday…
I do apologise for the lack of intelligibility in this post but I am still recovering from the stupidity of last week…
which is really depressing considering there were some really important government legislation and actions that occurred last week, swept under the rug of Crean’s sideshow.
On the Gary Gray appointment and his alleged links to Lavoisier, Grahame Readfearn who is most unlikely to provide cover fory Gray if he were currently a denier writes:
“@markatextor: (Aside)
Assuming a TPP of 58% is bullshit in any language
#Lateline #newspoll”
“@markatextor: Newspoll B/S. Tony IS doing well but on vote try find an actual nationwide final TPP result >54% in last 30yrs. Fed elections always closer”
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 2m
#Nielsen Poll NSW State Primary Votes: L/NP 52 ALP 23 GRN 10 #nswpol #auspol
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Nielsen Poll NSW State Robertson ALP: Approve 32 Disapprove 43 #nswpol #auspol
BTW: Thanks for keeping Robertson for us as well. You guys are just too kind to us.
Black Knight Concention tonight.
Tomorrow – The Dead Parrot Sketch
Mod Lib not a surprise Barry is clearly the best performing premier out of the eastern states.
[A mild salvation for Labor is that the Greens vote seems to be very soft.]
How the hell does this help Labor when 80% of the Green vote goes to Labor anyway?
[Diogenes
Posted Monday, March 25, 2013 at 11:29 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
Rudd should start writing his memoirs now. He’s got plenty of time on his hands.
It could be One Hundred Years of Solitude, although I think that’s already taken. ]
I think Rudd would be into his second or third volume by now titled… My Support, giving and not receiving.
Explain to me why alot of polling except in QLD?
Kevin or William
Does Labor do better in Newspoll when the survey is taken on a long weekend in one of the major states? The last Newspoll which was good for Labor was taken on the Labour Day weekend in Victoria and I recall the poll taken on the Australia Day weekend gave Labor a bounce. Why do they even poll on holiday weekends in the major states or national holidays?
[zoidlord
Posted Monday, March 25, 2013 at 11:34 pm | PERMALINK
Explain to me why alot of polling except in QLD?]
There is a whopping great big poll going on right now in Qld and will be released in a week or so.
In a couple of years Labor will possibly be not be in government anywhere in Australia.
That is the concern and wonder why Shorten is staying quiet, bet you he wants to be leader after the election.
The unions they support Julia but they only cater for 25 percent of workers, how out of touch are they.
Their members will vote Labor but what about the swinging voters, their heading to the Libs as they do not like Gillard.
And what will the Unions get from a Abbott Government- nothing- instead it could be terminal for them if Abbott and his band get their way and maybe go for a double dissolution election with workplace laws.
No idea why the party is supporting a leader who has never been in front in one poll?
Maybe because many people go away on long weekends.
@Mod Lib
I said &alot* not *1*.
bah *alot*
[rummel
Rudd should start writing his memoirs now. He’s got plenty of time on his hands.
It could be One Hundred Years of Solitude, although I think that’s already taken.]
Or Gillard should start writing..The longest ever suicide note.
You will note that out of all this Rudd is the Only one to come out with respect and dignity in the public eye.
Good Night
take absolutley no notice,, they all got what they wanted for now. when this happend last week on thursday a lot of labor people where in shock,, i even had people say to me this now a …. ,,,who remains namless led gov,, but i was resulote no way,, and i was spot on,
alot of people, out there have no comprehension of what has been going on only us types on the net,
now if i was a non net user i would of been rather confused, i have no idea when this poll was taken as i dont read the mumbo jumbo above never have doesnt interest me.
so we where 52/48 a fortnight ago from memory,
well its not the policies they dont like;
its the shock of it all, what he hell going on thing
what i am saying the electorate is a bit like the labor people i met last thursday not going to renew their membership ect, with in hours they had settled down.
the poor public who know nothing much about what the pm has edured need easter to calm down,,, in one way it is a shame about easter but then easter is a good time reflect on, as is sort of like what happened
not being good at words i would say forget it dont think about this poll its annoyed and bewildered people saying ,well whats going on,
the very next day after thy answered questions , they like a lot of lobor people who have no access to the internet may have also calmed down,
so they did a poll while even labor people where bewilded.
so they not unhappy about the policies,
we now have to rebuild and let the public know that JUlia is pm not the perrson who thought he was,
also phes idea a him free blog but i doubt you will get cooperation for that one,
chin up forget its people that are very confused.]again what electorate where ask interesting that galaxy who is not that good for us it seems over time well considering was not that bad,
so just move on,.]
‘
mr bowe i was wondering why you seemed to need to speak for the 7.30 reporter,
And bam. There it is.
[@markatextor: Newspoll B/S. Tony IS doing well but on vote try find an actual nationwide final TPP result >54% in last 30yrs. Fed elections always closer”]
There had not been many 60+ 2pp’s at state level either – but there have been two in the last three years (NSW and Qld) – so it can’t be said they don’t happen.
A 54+ may be possible this time as there has not been a national swing i.e. all states in one direction since 1975. 2013 could be the year.
Imagine if the Green vote does what it did in WA!