Nielsen: 63-37 to Coalition in NSW

A new Nielsen poll suggests whatever modest gains NSW Labor had made since its shattering 2011 election loss have evaporated.

The Sydney Morning Herald brings us a Nielsen poll of New South Wales state voting intention which suggests the Eddie Obeid matter has stripped away any modest gains the opposition may have made since the election. The Coalition leads 63-37 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 52% for the Coalition, 23% for Labor and 10% for the Greens, all of which is in the ballpark of the 2011 election result. Barry O’Farrell records better approval ratings than in other polling of the past year or so, with 54% approval and 35% disapproval, while John Robertson is on 32% and 43%. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is 62-25.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

20 comments on “Nielsen: 63-37 to Coalition in NSW”

  1. This poll highlights exactly where Labor will lose the next Federal election. We still have he Maitland case to come, so there is no respite in the near future. Terrible numbers for NSW Labor. O’Farrell has been uninspiring but safe and fairly successful so far. Much better than Bailleau.

  2. Are Labor planning on running in the Northern Tablelands by-election? Even if they get belted, they’ll still probably add about 20% to their vote (they got a piddling 3.4% in 2011, which has to be some kind of record). Then again, bearing in mind the circumstances, they’re gonna get belted. Tough gig for the Labor candidate, if there is one.

  3. The O’Farrell govt has been ordinary to say the least.
    Hunting in national parks and flip flopping all over the joint on coal seam gas seem to be the only stand outs in terms of policies that i can recall.
    Infrastructure is still stuffed and they are starting to look like the previous govt – lots of plans but not much action.
    But they are united behind their leader, don’t have the stench of corruption about them and have the shock jocks on side.
    That and the ICAC hearings means labor is stuffed for at least another 2 years. Which means that federal labor will be caught in the wake at the september election.
    I despair. John Robertson is not much chop either for that matter. Not much cut through at all.

  4. Gee I just didn’t see this coming.
    Robbo has done such a fine job, after all Eddie, Joe and Eric picked him especially for the job -the people of NSW are just ungrateful bastards.

    What are tragedy that these slimeballs, having brought themselves down will now bring down Gillard.

  5. O’Farrell’s right to silence ‘reforms’ are disgraceful, as is the continued accelerated rollout of speed cameras. Otherwise slaughtering the corrupt and inept Labor party run by Obeid supporter ‘Robbo’

  6. We may have spoken too soon in not as ascribing any corruption to the new NSW government.
    [ Mr Greiner, the current chair of Infrastructure NSW, and Bradken’s managing director, Brian Hodges, were involved in Bradken’s “misleading or deceptive conduct”, the judge said.
    Mr Greiner, Bradken and Mr Hodges, were last week ordered to pay $21.6 million to Swiss company Pala. The judge found Mr Greiner had used his positions at the two companies to hoodwink Pala into selling its mining-parts manufacturer – Norcast– for less than it was worth.]

    Well if that opinion by a judge does not disqualify Greiner from being a suitable person to chair Infrastructure NSW I can only wonder what would. Seriously, on access to information alone, Greiner has the potential to receive valuable information on several billion dollar projects now being investigated in NSW. Greiner clearly cannot be trusted with that sort of role. H must go.

    Robinson and NSW Labor seem to have here their first opportunity to pin the C word on NSW Liberals. They should take it. Greiner must go, and questions should be asked on what checks were made of his business dealings before he was appointed by whoever chose him.

  7. Isn’t it funny that forces in the right must replace Gillard at 35% but Obeid’s right ball is safe at 23.

  8. I am not a fan of Gillard or Obeid but I do not see how you can blame Robinson for current NSW polls. Whoever took over takes the backlash from the Obeid Tripodi stench was bound to get bad polls.

  9. Except there were and are some good people in caucus who could have been persuaded to be leader. I am thinking Tebbutt, Foley ( difficult to find a seat admittedly) and Andrew MacDonald all of whom could plausibly be said to be cleanskins.
    Instead on the night of the election as Jane Jetson was conceding and apologising for the mess, Sussex St was imposing a leader who had not only brought down 3 premiers but was an inexperienced and poor politician. In Keatings words if ever you become the leader of the party it will be in opposition for ever (or something like that)

  10. lol @ Nick Griener, typical liberal businessman! And he is Barry’s[or backroom boys] boys choice as head of infrastructure NSW. Labor, amateurs at corruption

  11. Mod Lib@12

    Could the Coalition actually GAIN seats at the next election? OMG

    No they will lose seats then, they are by and large a poor, timid govt. I mean FFS with the thumping majority they have you would think they would do something.
    But no, they are dribblers. Gifting Packer a casino license without due process? Inexcusable, thankfully state labor is realizing this is a dodgy deal and will likely appose it.
    That said their honeymoon ensures federal labor will pay for state labor’s sins at the next federal election. As unfair as that seems.

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