Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

The Australian reports the Coalition’s lead in the latest fortnightly Newspoll has blown out to 58-42 from a below-trend 52-48 last time.

The Australian reports the Coalition’s lead in Newspoll has blown out to 58-42, from primary votes of 30% for Labor (down four on the previous fortnight’s result) and 50% for the Coalition (up six) and 10% for the Greens (down one). There has also been a big move to Tony Abbott on preferred prime minister, going from 42-38 behind to 43-35 ahead – remembering that the result of the previous poll was well above the trend for Labor. More to follow.

UPDATE: Julia Gillard has recorded her worst personal ratings since September 2011, while Tony Abbott’s ratings are the best they have been since the middle of that year. Gillard is down six on approval to 26% and up eight on disapproval to 65%, while Tony Abbott is up three to 39% and down five to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,831 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. โ€œ@kevinbonham: So two polls did nothing, one moved slightly, one moved bigtime. #Galaxy #Essential #Newspoll #Morganโ€

  2. Evening All

    I guess it was hardly going to be anything else as they were polling while the s h i t was hitting the fan. Jump forward 2 weeks please ๐Ÿ™‚

  3. It could/could have been worse. But it will take a few polls to tell if anything systemic has happened I think. However those previous attitudinal results in galaxy were foreboding.

  4. Mark textor querying the 12 pt swing

    [@markatextor: #Newspoll raising eyebrows in my profession again. Too often you see big movements now. Ain’t like that out there. #lateline]

  5. Yes, a bit worse than I expected.

    The media will have a field day with it, then eventually realize they have nothing left to report on, so they might start looking at Abbott and policy.

  6. โ€œ@raymondpisani: @wrb330 @TonyAbbottMHR So the alternative PM is an L PLATE PM seeing he has never been PM his only contributionis being irrelivent LOTOโ€

  7. This Newspoll is #Kevenge

    I mean what do,you expect after a botched challenge to a PM after a year of white anting building to a cr

  8. Newspoll has usually had a lower Coalition vote than other pollsters. Now it’s jumped way over to the other side.

    William’s last thread says it was 34% last time, so I don’t know how it’s “down 5”.

  9. 24 weeks is a long time in politics. Some strong performances today from Minister’s. I don’t get the feeling they are going to lay down and die. The nightmare scenario for the Tories is that last week’s events do indeed prove to be the much needed circuit breaker.

  10. [This is Ruddโ€™s last poll Bemused ]

    Well….this sort of thing if it continues will only have the Opposite effect.

    This is why the right factional thugs were apparently thinking trying to monster him out at the next election….before being told to pull their head in (lest 40/60 be the election result). Maybe the prospect of Rudd was the only thing keeping Labor’s polls up.. hehe

  11. This Newspoll gives quite interesting results in Antony Green’s calculator:

    The ALP would be left with:
    1 seat in Qld (Rudd, by 0.4%)
    0 seats in WA
    0 seats in NT
    2 seats in Tas

    Yikes!

  12. [Thank you, Leakers and insurrectionists.

    Rubbing your hands?]

    That would be Crean and the right bringing on a spill… yes you are correct.

  13. Albo is the last Mohican that can make a final stand for chicken hawk Rudd. I bet Rudd is tickled pink he is still on the front bench.

  14. โ€œ@Piping_Shrike: You see a lousy poll, I see these numbers as a rock solid base from which to move forward as a unified team. #Newspollโ€

    A summation I agree with given the circumstances this this cycle of polls was done in.

  15. [then eventually realize they have nothing left to report on, so they might start looking at Abbott and policy.]

    You’d think so, and at the moment its way too soon after the juicy-ness of last weeks theatre for the journo’s to let go. Fibs are hoping to keep up the sceer and feed the current theme with their no confidence motion at budget time but i think they have problems with that.

    Wonder if they have considered how the ALP will throw the “confidence” theme back at them if Abbott does one of his “economics free” budget reply speeches?? Or if JoHo trots out some vague, confused, and commitment free Hockeynomics style speech??

  16. The Labor apparatchiks may not actually be unhappy with this result – the Labor PV could have had a 2 in front – which after last weeks fiasco would not have been a surprise.

  17. [Albo is the last Mohican that can make a final stand for chicken hawk Rudd.]

    Not quite. Crean sprung a trap, Rudd smart enough to avoid being dragged into a spill where the right faction had control of enough numbers. You would have to be stupid to do that…instead what happened?? 55 think he was honorable.

  18. Hey, remember guys, you said you preferred to go to the election with Gillard and take whatever the voters gave you.

    It was a matter of doing the “honourable thing”, remember?

    So if Abbott becomes PM, gains Senate Control and has three terms to do as he wishes, don’t forget your principles. That outcome is still better than the outside chance of PM Rudd.

  19. BBP,

    [The Labor apparatchiks may not actually be unhappy with this result โ€“ the Labor PV could have had a 2 in front โ€“ which after last weeks fiasco would not have been a surprise.]

    That only means that if the state of play maintains itself until the election, Labor isn’t the only party that should be worried…

  20. Was having a chat with an apolitical friend earlier tonight. He usually only shows up to vote because he wants to avoid the fine. This is as “passionate” as I’ve ever heard him.

    “They (Labor) are a disgrace and it’s so far till the election. Not that I care about the other lot either, I just want to see Gillard lose.”

    I think we might be seeing a lot of people who just want to see Gillard get her comeuppance. I think we’re at the point where at the point where it just doesn’t matter who the opposition leader is – he/she just has to be someone other than Gillard and the ALP.

  21. Entirely predictable: I thought it so obvious I didn’t even bother predicting it. You can’t have a week like last week and not take a hit. I wouldn’t have been surprised if it was 60/40. So that’s where all this shit has left us. I will keep to my pledge and not discuss how we got here. But we are here, and it’s obvious what the path back up the hill must be: policy work, discipline and a united message. Labor now has an undisputed leader and a new ministerial team to support her. Anyone who calls themselves Labor must now work to support that team. If they don’t, they will be exposed as rats, or dogs, or whatever unflattering zoonym you like. It starts tomorrow. That is all. Good night.

  22. [You see a lousy poll, I see these numbers as a rock solid base from which to move forward as a unified team.]

    I assumed that was satire.

  23. Shut it down! ๐Ÿ˜›

    While I am in no delusion that things were going good for Labor prior, Crean’s stupidity last week has killed off any remaining chances this government has left.

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