In recognition of the quickening tempo as the federal election draws nearer (let’s continue to presume it will indeed be on September 14), my mid-week update to the BludgerTrack 2013 poll aggregate will henceforth get its own thread. This means that in the normal course of things there will be three more-or-less evenly spaced federal politics post a week: one hanging off the main poll release on Sunday or Monday, the regular “Seat of the Week” on Friday or Saturday, and the BludgerTrack update in between.
The latest update throws the latest results from Nielsen and Essential Research into the mix, producing little change after the slight recovery for Labor last week. However, the state relativities have changed slightly with the addition of data from Nielsen, one of only two pollsters which provides state breakdowns with any consistency. The swing recorded for New South Wales is now higher than for Victoria, as most commentary suggests it should be. As noted in the previous post, the weekly Morgan result is being excluded from the calculation for the time being until there is enough data from its new “multi-mode” methodology to allow for a credible bias measure to be determined with reference to the overall polling trend.
Other news:
• Four nominees have emerged for the Labor preselection in the Sydney seat of Barton, to be vacated upon the retirement of former Attorney-General Robert McClelland. They do not include former NSW Premier Morris Iemma, who may have had his factional association with Eddie Obeid to consider, together with the extreme difficulty any Labor candidate will face defending the seat. Paul Osborne of The Australian reports the contest is effectively between Shane O’Brien, Rockdale mayor and NSW Public Service Association assisant secretary; Kirsten Andrews, “former state and federal ministerial adviser”; and Steve McMahon, former Hurstville mayor who “made a name for himself when he sold the mayoral car to build a children’s playground”. O’Brien is “widely seen as the frontrunner”; Another nominee, state upper house MP and former Rockdale mayor Shaoquett Moselmane, withdrew his nomination after two days, choosing instead to make headlines with a parliamentary attack on Israel. Murray Trembath of the St George & Sutherland Shire Leader earlier reported that Moselmane’s run was thought to be “a lever to seek a more secure position on Labor’s upper house ticket for the next election”. The Liberals have endorsed Nick Varvaris, accountant and mayor of Kogarah.
• A day after the Financial Review reported he had received assistance from Eddie Obeid as he sought to enter parliament in 1999, independent state MP Richard Torbay has dropped a bombshell by announcing his withdrawal as Nationals candidate for Tony Windsor’s seat of New England. The Nationals’ state chairman, Niall Blair, confirmed Torbay was asked to stand aside after the party received unspecified information “of which we were not previously aware”. Barnaby Joyce has expressed interest in the past in using the seat for a long-desired move to the lower house, and there were immediate suggestions he might take Torbay’s place.
• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports Tim Watts, Telstra executive and former adviser to Communications Minister Stephen Conroy and former Victorian Premier John Brumby, is the front-runner to succeed Nicola Roxon as Labor candidate for the safe western Melbourne seat of Gellibrand.
• With John Forrest bowing out at as member at the next election, the Nationals preselection for Mallee has attracted 10 candidates. Those named in an ABC report are Horsham farmer Russell McKenzie, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, Buloke Shire mayor Reid Mather and Swan Hill deputy mayor Greg Cruickshank. Liberal party sources quoted by Terry Sim of the Weekly Times said the Liberals were “unlikely to field a candidate”. Labor has endorsed Lydia Senior, chief executive of the Lower Murray Medicare Local.
• Megan Gorrey of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Laurie Ferguson effortlessly saw off a preselection challenge from Damian Ogden, by a margin of 132 to 11.
• Legislation which completed its passage through federal parliament earlier in the month has raised the bar for prospective election candidates by increasing nomination deposits (from $500 to $1000 for the House of Representatives and $1000 to $2000 for the Senate) and requiring of independent candidates more supporting signatures on nomination forms.
Top End corner:
• The Northern Territory had a change of Chief Minister last week, with Adam Giles emerging as the first indigenous leader of an Australian government. Terry Mills, whom Giles ousted as leader just seven months after he led the Country Liberal Party to victory at the polls, was informed of his ill fortune by text message while on government business in Japan.
The present leadership crisis began a fortnight ago when deputy leader Robyn Lambley stood aside for Giles with a view to healing a long-standing rift, only for Giles to up the ante by indicating he would move to replace Mills as leader unless further conditions were met. In this he had hoped for support from Alison Anderson, the most senior of the CLP’s complement of indigenous MPs, but she instead publicly blasted Giles for refusal to accept the deputy leadership and threatened to take her “bush coalition” of four MPs (the cohesiveness of which is disputed) to the cross-benches or even into coalition with Labor. The turmoil coincided with the period of a Newspoll survey for the Northern Territory News targeting 437 respondents in the CLP-held seats of Sanderson, Blain and Brennan, which showed a 22% against the CLP on the primary vote and 14% on two-party preferred. Mills’s personal ratings were at 26% approval and 67% disapproval, compared with 39% and 38% for Opposition Leader Delia Lawrie (whom Mills nonetheless led 38-37 as preferred Chief Minister).
The situation was transformed the following week when Anderson and the bush MPs were persuaded to put the previous week’s acrimony behind them and throw their support behind Giles, with Anderson telling Amos Aikman of The Australian the decision was made to forestall a rival challenger she declined to identify. The victory for the Giles camp was confirmed when his key supporter, Fong Lim MP and former federal Solomon MP David Tollner, was installed as deputy leader and Treasurer. Mills meanwhile is widely expected to head for the exit in fairly short order, promising to initiate a challenging by-election in his seat of Blain.
• All of which nicely leads into my belated results summary for last month’s Wanguri by-election, which delivered a bloody nose for the CLP and a morale-boosting result for Labor, which had suffered a 7.7% swing in the seat when Paul Henderson contested it as Chief Minister at the election on August 25.
WANGURI BY-ELECTION, NORTHERN TERRITORY February 16, 2013 Votes % Swing 2PP % Swing Nicole Manison (ALP) 2,428 65.2% +8.2% 2,585 69.4% +12.4% Rhianna Harker (CLP) 1,059 28.4% -14.6% 1,139 30.6% -12.4% Peter Rudge (Independent) 237 6.4% Formal 3,724 96.4% -1.6% Informal 86 3.6% +1.6% Enrolment/Turnout 4,984 77.5% -11.6%
@ABCNews24: Fed Govt delays planned overhaul of Australia’s anti-discrimination laws. News conference live now: http://t.co/3YXdj8bPNi #auspol
Huh! Quite a few of us were predicting last week that Conroy (and Gillard)’s strategy was to introduce fairly mild legislation, which would then be ramped up by the indies….
Of course, though, those who consistently make correct predictions on PB are also those accused most often of being out of touch with the real world, delusional, yadda yadda.
zoomster
Yes. Congratulations to those who predicted that as at the moment it looks like it is correct. 🙂
Has Crean confirmed or denied yesterdays reports?
Go Mr Dreyfuss. Strong performance indeed.
I’m not saying the polls are rigged, but …
there’s definitely a bias of at least 2% against the ALP based on desperate Rudd supporters trying to engineer a leadership change. These characters are maliciously misreporting their voting intentions; it’s as clear as mud and as obvious as all those Liberal respondents telling the pollsters that Rudd would be a better PM than Gillard. Both sides are trying to engineer regime change within the ALP – for different reasons obviously.
Use your common sense to question the motives of this certain type of person. When you do so, a strong polling bias based on the Rudd factor suddenly becomes very understandable.
Will this bias still persist when this type of person goes into the polling boot on Sept 14? To answer this, ask yourself another question: will Bemused vote for the liberals on Sept 14 if Julia gillard is the encumbant PM?
If your answer is NO, then all is okey doke, and you can rest assured that this mischevious 2% will come back to their rightful fold.
“@senthorun: We seem to have no problem with speech restrictions on defamation or sedition, but do with vilification. Why? #auspol”
zoomster:
Yes I was ridiculed too for suggesting that’s how it would likely play out.
@JacquelineMaley: Happy International Happiness Day, Labor caucus! RT @lenoretaylor: it is the first united nation international ‘day of happiness’ #auspol
Gecko – I don’t think Crean has, or had, any intention to challenge.
The grin on his dial the last week or so is simply amusement at the Press suggestions that he will.
If they can just set it up so Thomson says no but it will pass by one with the coalition’s pair for Thomson, that would be delicious.
As I said last week and several times since, Conroy n the PM are playin good cop/bad cop.
The reason is to send clear message to the cross benchers that they won’t be stuffed around by silly suggestions.
And it’s working.
As I said last week and several times since, Conroy n the PM are playin good cop/bad cop.
The reason is to send clear message to the cross benchers that they won’t be stuffed around by silly suggestions.
And it’s working.
dedalus – where did you get the 2% figure from? Plucked from thin air?
@hughriminton: “@JournalismDaily: European-style Press Councils Could Help Resuscitate American Journalism http://t.co/OOOKxNdEsd” retweeted w/o comment.
[Labor closer to media deal as crossbenchers ponder panel for press oversight
BY:BEN PACKHAM AND DAVID CROWE From: The Australian March 20, 2013 10:01AM
INDEPENDENT Tony Windsor is upbeat about the prospect of a compromise on Labor’s media reform package, but the government still needs to secure the support of at least one more crossbencher to impose new controls on the press.
Mr Windsor said he was attracted to a proposal by fellow independent Bob Katter for Labor’s controversial public interest media advocate to be appointed by a panel of Australians, rather than the government directly.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/labor-closer-to-media-deal-as-crossbenchers-ponder-panel-for-press-oversight/story-e6frg996-1226601270103
CTar1
My thoughts too… but yesterday I think Psephos(?) alluded to an unrequited and hidden desire to lead again. Perfectly understandable. Just wondered if he’d publicly shut the door on the speculation is all.
z,
I thought the fire levy would be in your Rates from this year.
[Jack Sumner @preciouspress 5m Few days ago SMH’s McClymont went through Obeid’s diary but only mentioned dates with Labor MPs. No mention of Torbay. Funny that?]
Gecko – If things go wrong he’d probably hold up his hand in Opposition.
Why not.
Should the bills get up – Gillard’s reputation for getting things done will hit legendary status. Has there ever been a tougher PM?
GG
I was after the figure, because some cocky was on local radio saying he was going to be rooned by it, and the local Nats MP basically agreed with him!
But I rang their hotline, and apparently no one knows yet what the figure will be (apart from the fixed charge).
[Gecko – If things go wrong…]
😆
[ If they can just set it up so Thomson says no but it will pass by one with the coalition’s pair for Thomson, that would be delicious. ]
Too risky. If it came down to that, Abbott would of course “reluctantly” accept Thomson’s vote, having been persuaded that Thomson was correct and the voters in his electorate should have a voice.
Agree, Gecko. This thing looked “dead, buried and cremated”, if I can borrow an expression, before today. It would amazing if she pulled it off. Then watch the media tantrum.
I can’t help thinking Gillard’s fate as PM hinges on getting this Bill over the line…or am I being a drama queen.
If she gets through this week, I think she has a good chance of kicking Abbott to death (to quote a Tory).
Given the push Fairfax is giving to leadership change, if I were Crean and contemplating just that, having read their news articles I would give it a miss just for the fun of watching Fairfax implode :P.
Gecko
What I like about it would be that the Noalition policy of “just say no” opened the door to even tougher regs from the Indies.Indies who would have quite a list of bad experiences at the hands of the press.
Can someone tell me WTF Labor is doing dumping the discrimination law reform?
Is this because the committee recommended including sexist, homophobic churches who deliver public services, and Labor doesn’t want to pick yet another fight at the moment?
I’m referring to this (I’m assuming this has been discussed already):
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/discrimination-reforms-dumped/story-fn59niix-1226601065130
Dedalus
There are NOT enough desperate Rudd supporters in a poll to make a two percent difference. On PB yes or in political parties yes but NOT in the general public. I would give you a 0.02% but this would be offset by the o.o1% of Liberals who want a return to Turnbull
Player One, that would be acutely embarrassing for Abbott, and show him to be a man who throws out his principles when it suits him. Abbott is the one who’s been banging on about trust and integrity. The government would make hay all the way to the election.
‘Should the bills get up – Gillard’s reputation for getting things done will hit legendary status. Has there ever been a tougher PM?’
Has there ever been a PM who has achieved so much for so many and received so little credit?
Lynchpin
That is the way it looks to me as well.
BK If you are still around, all the best for the big day may the sun shine and the wedding be truly wonderful, and the father of the bride well prepared with his speech!
Lynchpin
No the passage of the bills will make no difference electorally. It is not a “sexy” public issue – it affects activists.
Murdoch has already done the damage with the Telegraph picture.
Everyone already knows Gillard is a brilliant negotiator. Not sure it will help
z,
Perhaps chck with your local Councillor to see how they are grappling with the issue!
Let each of us put Gillard Rudd preferences aside and consider just what electoral impact Crean would have?
Victorians – what do you think
Qld – he may go over OK here – we are ready for someone quiet
[Bevan Shields @bevanshields85 59s Source tells me Richard Torbay has resigned from NSW Parliament #nswpol]
[Murdoch has already done the damage with the Telegraph picture.]
While people aren’t smart enough to vote on the basis of subtle legislative maneuvering, they are also not dumb enough to vote based on something like that picture.
“@jeloscek: Richard Torbay has reigned from his state seat. Effective immediately. #nswpol”
“@latikambourke: We knew what you meant. Fast tweeting, typos and all, appreciated. RT @jeloscek: actually… resigned!”
Anti-discrimination laws: another distraction surely. But it just deepens the sense of chaos, the flailing around for anything to change the subject.
That said, Mark Dreyfus is one of the most impressive minds in federal Labor. Head and shoulders above boofheads like Conroy.
BK
To help with your preparation… good luck.
http://www.godvine.com/Father-of-the-Bride-Gives-the-Most-Touching-Speech-Ever-2831.html#.URvc4Y5LwNV.email
“@preciouspress: Kate McClymont confirms Torbay gets mention in Obeid’s diary. Why didn’t she mention that last week? http://t.co/OY8GC4A9Yo via @smh”
[Let each of us put Gillard Rudd preferences aside and consider just what electoral impact Crean would have?
Victorians – what do you think]
Nope.
Gecko
Crean thing is Media BS. Labor done Crean already. Not a back to the future party like the Libs.
guytaur – I wonder if we’re going to see Mr Torbay at ICAC?
[ Player One, that would be acutely embarrassing for Abbott, and show him to be a man who throws out his principles when it suits him. Abbott is the one who’s been banging on about trust and integrity. The government would make hay all the way to the election. ]
Nothing embarrasses Abbott, and he has no principles to throw out. That’s his biggest advantage.
However, he knows that his survival as LOTO depends on him defeating this legislation. If he does, he gets the chance to go on to fight the election. If he doesn’t, his future is grim – Abbott without OM backing is a dead horse. The LNP would switch to someone else faster than you could say “programmatic specificity”
DTT, I was thinking more of Gillard surviving the Rudd push.
Once she clears that hurdle she can focus on Abbott and do him over.
[ Anti-discrimination laws: another distraction surely. But it just deepens the sense of chaos, the flailing around for anything to change the subject.
That said, Mark Dreyfus is one of the most impressive minds in federal Labor. Head and shoulders above boofheads like Conroy. ]
Look! A unicorn!