BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Coalition

The Poll Bludger’s federal poll aggregate has recorded little change since the previous result a week ago. Also featured: preselection argybargy, changes to electoral legislation, a new Chief Minister for the Northern Territory, and a by-election result.

In recognition of the quickening tempo as the federal election draws nearer (let’s continue to presume it will indeed be on September 14), my mid-week update to the BludgerTrack 2013 poll aggregate will henceforth get its own thread. This means that in the normal course of things there will be three more-or-less evenly spaced federal politics post a week: one hanging off the main poll release on Sunday or Monday, the regular “Seat of the Week” on Friday or Saturday, and the BludgerTrack update in between.

The latest update throws the latest results from Nielsen and Essential Research into the mix, producing little change after the slight recovery for Labor last week. However, the state relativities have changed slightly with the addition of data from Nielsen, one of only two pollsters which provides state breakdowns with any consistency. The swing recorded for New South Wales is now higher than for Victoria, as most commentary suggests it should be. As noted in the previous post, the weekly Morgan result is being excluded from the calculation for the time being until there is enough data from its new “multi-mode” methodology to allow for a credible bias measure to be determined with reference to the overall polling trend.

Other news:

• Four nominees have emerged for the Labor preselection in the Sydney seat of Barton, to be vacated upon the retirement of former Attorney-General Robert McClelland. They do not include former NSW Premier Morris Iemma, who may have had his factional association with Eddie Obeid to consider, together with the extreme difficulty any Labor candidate will face defending the seat. Paul Osborne of The Australian reports the contest is effectively between Shane O’Brien, Rockdale mayor and NSW Public Service Association assisant secretary; Kirsten Andrews, “former state and federal ministerial adviser”; and Steve McMahon, former Hurstville mayor who “made a name for himself when he sold the mayoral car to build a children’s playground”. O’Brien is “widely seen as the frontrunner”; Another nominee, state upper house MP and former Rockdale mayor Shaoquett Moselmane, withdrew his nomination after two days, choosing instead to make headlines with a parliamentary attack on Israel. Murray Trembath of the St George & Sutherland Shire Leader earlier reported that Moselmane’s run was thought to be “a lever to seek a more secure position on Labor’s upper house ticket for the next election”. The Liberals have endorsed Nick Varvaris, accountant and mayor of Kogarah.

• A day after the Financial Review reported he had received assistance from Eddie Obeid as he sought to enter parliament in 1999, independent state MP Richard Torbay has dropped a bombshell by announcing his withdrawal as Nationals candidate for Tony Windsor’s seat of New England. The Nationals’ state chairman, Niall Blair, confirmed Torbay was asked to stand aside after the party received unspecified information “of which we were not previously aware”. Barnaby Joyce has expressed interest in the past in using the seat for a long-desired move to the lower house, and there were immediate suggestions he might take Torbay’s place.

• Troy Bramston of The Australian reports Tim Watts, Telstra executive and former adviser to Communications Minister Stephen Conroy and former Victorian Premier John Brumby, is the front-runner to succeed Nicola Roxon as Labor candidate for the safe western Melbourne seat of Gellibrand.

• With John Forrest bowing out at as member at the next election, the Nationals preselection for Mallee has attracted 10 candidates. Those named in an ABC report are Horsham farmer Russell McKenzie, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad, Buloke Shire mayor Reid Mather and Swan Hill deputy mayor Greg Cruickshank. Liberal party sources quoted by Terry Sim of the Weekly Times said the Liberals were “unlikely to field a candidate”. Labor has endorsed Lydia Senior, chief executive of the Lower Murray Medicare Local.

• Megan Gorrey of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Laurie Ferguson effortlessly saw off a preselection challenge from Damian Ogden, by a margin of 132 to 11.

• Legislation which completed its passage through federal parliament earlier in the month has raised the bar for prospective election candidates by increasing nomination deposits (from $500 to $1000 for the House of Representatives and $1000 to $2000 for the Senate) and requiring of independent candidates more supporting signatures on nomination forms.

Top End corner:

• The Northern Territory had a change of Chief Minister last week, with Adam Giles emerging as the first indigenous leader of an Australian government. Terry Mills, whom Giles ousted as leader just seven months after he led the Country Liberal Party to victory at the polls, was informed of his ill fortune by text message while on government business in Japan.

The present leadership crisis began a fortnight ago when deputy leader Robyn Lambley stood aside for Giles with a view to healing a long-standing rift, only for Giles to up the ante by indicating he would move to replace Mills as leader unless further conditions were met. In this he had hoped for support from Alison Anderson, the most senior of the CLP’s complement of indigenous MPs, but she instead publicly blasted Giles for refusal to accept the deputy leadership and threatened to take her “bush coalition” of four MPs (the cohesiveness of which is disputed) to the cross-benches or even into coalition with Labor. The turmoil coincided with the period of a Newspoll survey for the Northern Territory News targeting 437 respondents in the CLP-held seats of Sanderson, Blain and Brennan, which showed a 22% against the CLP on the primary vote and 14% on two-party preferred. Mills’s personal ratings were at 26% approval and 67% disapproval, compared with 39% and 38% for Opposition Leader Delia Lawrie (whom Mills nonetheless led 38-37 as preferred Chief Minister).

The situation was transformed the following week when Anderson and the bush MPs were persuaded to put the previous week’s acrimony behind them and throw their support behind Giles, with Anderson telling Amos Aikman of The Australian the decision was made to forestall a rival challenger she declined to identify. The victory for the Giles camp was confirmed when his key supporter, Fong Lim MP and former federal Solomon MP David Tollner, was installed as deputy leader and Treasurer. Mills meanwhile is widely expected to head for the exit in fairly short order, promising to initiate a challenging by-election in his seat of Blain.

• All of which nicely leads into my belated results summary for last month’s Wanguri by-election, which delivered a bloody nose for the CLP and a morale-boosting result for Labor, which had suffered a 7.7% swing in the seat when Paul Henderson contested it as Chief Minister at the election on August 25.

WANGURI BY-ELECTION, NORTHERN TERRITORY
February 16, 2013

				Votes 	% 	Swing 	2PP 	%	Swing
Nicole Manison (ALP) 		2,428 	65.2% 	+8.2% 	2,585 	69.4%	+12.4%
Rhianna Harker (CLP)		1,059 	28.4% 	-14.6% 	1,139 	30.6%	-12.4%
Peter Rudge (Independent) 	237 	6.4% 			

Formal 				3,724 	96.4% 	-1.6% 		
Informal 			86 	3.6% 	+1.6% 		
Enrolment/Turnout 		4,984 	77.5% 	-11.6%

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,394 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.7-45.3 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 128
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  2. Psephos@46


    fran kelly‏@frankellyabc4m
    Real momentum for leadership vote before the week is out. Keep your ears open for a caucus meeting today or tomorrow.

    “Real momentum” now from fran kelly – so is that an admission its all been crap previously?

    On what basis I wonder does she now say its “real”?

    Not an unreasonable question after OM have told us so many times wtte, that its on!

  4. This won’t make Scott Morrisson happy:

    [Indonesia’s people-smuggling task force has cracked an operation that was preparing to send 80 asylum seekers to Australia.

    The East Java people-smuggling task force says a Palestinian man, known as Hussein, has been arrested.

    It is understood his customers were from Iran and Iraq and were preparing to head to Australia by boat.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-20/people-smuggling-operation-cracked-in-indonesia/4583232

    Is this perhaps related to the appointment of Angus Houston as special envoy to discuss a regional solution on people smugglers?

  7. Citizen

    Wow. Good on the Indonesian authorities. I am all for not smuggling people. Be that for refugees or sex or slave labor reasons.

    Also good less lives being risked at sea of course.

  12. “@watermelon_man: Have I understood – latest News Ltd/Fairfax slogan is “Bring back Bob Hawke”? Was to be Fraser, but Malcolm such a disappointment lately.”

  15. “@sspencer_63: Pyne can’t help himself. Sneers at journos “1st time in history press will want a Liberal Govt elected”.”

  17. [“@ABCNews24: Live: Manager of Oppn Business Christopher Pyne news conf. on “mismanagement of the Parliament” http://t.co/3YXdj8bPNi #auspol”]

    Today’s Liberals just cannot stand women in charge. Whether it’s PMJG or it would seem Speaker Anna Burke.

  18. I’m trying to find out how much the new Victorian fire levy is likely to cost us – and the Vic government site is about the most useless I’ve ever seen…

    Anyone got any ideas?

  21. zoomster

    Check the Mayne report. I seem to remember a tweet about the subject by Mayne. Now he is a Councillor he covers a lot of Victorian government things

  22. [Penchant for picking a winner is poll waffle

    How much faith can we put in polls held six months out from an election?

    Here’s an odd thing: the ”doomed” Gillard government’s standing in the polls is about par for the course six months before voting day. Since 1992, by my count, the polls at this stage of proceedings ”predicted” just two of seven federal election results, in 1996 and 2007.

    The point is not that you should put your money on the Gillard government to win – unless you’re rich and foolish – but that relying on polls to tip a result half a year before voters make up their minds is a pointless exercise. There are known unknowns, as the great philosopher Donald Rumsfeld observed, and history shows these include the results of democratic elections.

    Journalism anywhere suffers from an incestuous relationship with party numbers crunchers, but our media’s compulsive tipping tendencies seem to be peculiarly Australian. It wouldn’t matter if this were just a waste of time, but the political effects are insidious.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/penchant-for-picking-a-winner-is-poll-waffle-20130319-2gd8n.html#ixzz2O1reE8l5

  24. “We published your comment:
    Think Peter is protesting too hard now, his obsession and almost hatred of the Prime Minister is reaching ridiculous proportions now, get over it please”

    My comment re Peter H article,in Fairfax papets, didn’t think it would be published, kept it pretty quiet to what I really thought 😉

  28. [59 McFly Marty
    Posted Wednesday, March 20, 2013 at 9:43 am | Permalink
    Whether it’s Rudd or Abbott who topples her, MAN is it going to be nice to watch Gillard cry on TV.]

    You entitled to your views but what an idiot you are if this gives you pleasure.

  29. Well media will cover this and not Abbott next week.

    “@TheEllenShow: I leave for Australia tomorrow! Sydney first and Melbourne on Monday and Tuesday. I can’t wait to see all of your Australian faces!”

  30. Allegedly, Bob Carr when premier had Torbay introduced by Obeid as a potential ALP candidate for Tamworth. They advised him to run as an Independent, but as a friendly one.

    Which he did, and rose to the august position of Speaker of the NSW Parliament.

    So astonishment all round when he decides to stand for the Nats agains Windsor…

    As the chatter around the traps says, Torbay has stood as an Independent, and as candidate for every party (except the Liberals). “I do have some standards he said”.

  32. [Tony Abbott’s ‘women friendly’ re-invention needs scrutiny
    BY KATE GLEESON, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY / MAR 20, 2013 6:50AM

    Tony Abbott is trying to improve his image with many women. But as I found out when I met him recently, no makeover can erase his track record of public statements and actions, especially on issues of clear gender sensitivity like abortion.
    So will the Abbott re-invention as friend of all women be successful? My experience suggests no, at least not with those familiar with history]

    http://www.womensagenda.com.au/talking-about/opinions/tony-abbotts-women-friendly-re-invention-needs-scrutiny/201303191846

  33. [The former West Australian Labor MP, Ernie Bridge, is suing the State Government and two of Australia’s richest women after being diagnosed with mesothelioma.

    Mr Bridge believes he was exposed to asbestos fibres and dust while the Minister responsible for withdrawing government services from the town of Wittenoom in the late 1980s.

    The 76-year-old is also suing the Shire of Ashburton, CSR Limited, Midalco, Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting and Angela Bennett’s Wright Prospecting.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-20/ernie-bridge-sues-in-asbestos-claim/4583578

    Sad news about Ernie.

  35. [Wow its going to be tough. Peter Slipper, Craig Thomson and Senator Conroy drafting the PIMA legislation]

    This is a bit like the victim impact statements presented at sentencing hearings.

  38. [Business travellers at Perth Airport face a fight for the plush seats in departure lounges, with the Maritime Union of Australia seeking Qantas Club membership for its offshore workers as part of a new wage deal.

    An explosion of fluoro-jacketed miners travelling to remote resources projects accumulating vast frequent-flyer points and gaining access to the lounge has put some business travellers’ noses out of joint.

    It has also forced Qantas to double the size of its corporate departure lounge in Perth this year.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/16401593/qantas-club-bid-by-fifo-workers/

    I let my Qantas Club membership expire because there was no point being a member. Every time I tried to use the Perth lounge in particular, I could never get a seat and could never get any food.

    Plus, if you fly out in the early hours of a Monday the place is awash with hi-vis.

  39. From citizen’s link in #82
    [Abbott was polite and keen to talk and gave every impression of being interested in what I had to say. But when I noted he was the first politician from a major party since the 1970s to break bipartisan consensus and politicise abortion, he denied he had intended to do any such thing.
    From that point in the conversation I witnessed a fascinating, determined retelling of history by Abbott, along with a perfectly executed case of selective political amnesia.]

  40. guytaur:

    Is that true about Slipper, Thommo and Conroy re-drafting the bill?

    If so the outcome of this has run exactly as predicted by Andrew Elder last week. Well done to him.

  41. guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, March 20, 2013 at 9:59 am | PERMALINK
    mari

    Congratulations!!!!!
    Thanks Guytaur I was pretty pleased myself 😀

  44. The crossbench is actually pushing the government to make the media legislation tougher than Conroy’s original proposal. Oakeshott seems opposed to the whole idea, but Katter seems to be on board. It will pass or fail by one vote either way.

  46. [Is that true about Slipper, Thommo and Conroy re-drafting the bill?]
    I thought that’s what Turnbull was saying – to Labor’s detriment, of course.

  48. Psephos

    Yes. As long as it passes I will be happy. It will be a step along the way to getting facts based debate back into politics.

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