The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, down from 56-44 at the previous poll three weeks ago, with both Labor and the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 31% and 47% respectively and the Greens up two to 11%. Tony Abbott has apparently hit the lead as preferred prime minister; more to follow.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Julia Gillard’s ratings have plunged yet further, her approval down six points to 30% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is effectively unchanged at 33% (steady) and 55% (down one), but his 41-39 deficit on preferred prime minister is now a lead of 40-36.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face result combines the last two weekends of polling, and it shows the Coalition sustaining a commanding primary vote lead of 44% (down one) to 33.5% (steady), with the Greens up a point to 10%. On respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition lead has narrowed from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5, while on previous election preferences it’s down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.
Other news:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has accepted Julian Assange’s enrolment in the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, which clears him to proceed with his Senate bid unless someone cares to mount a legal challenge. I had expected that Assange might fall foul of the requirement that a person enrolling overseas must intend to resume residing in Australia within six years of having left. To the best of my admittedly limited knowledge, Assange was last here furtively in 2007. Another legal grey area is his political asylum status, and what it might mean for the constitutional injunction that parliamentarians not be “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or … a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”.
• Gary Humphries, who has held the Liberals’ ACT Senate seat since 2003 and was the territory’s Chief Minister from October 2000 to November 2001, has lost preselection to Zed Seselja, leader of the ACT opposition through five years and two election defeats. Seselja prevailed in the contentious party ballot on Saturday by margin of 114 to 84. Humphries says he will abide by the result, but even before the vote his supporters had petitioned for it to be referred to a divisional council meeting on the grounds that the process had been rushed to Seselja’s advantage. That would throw the vote open to around 400 extra party members who were denied a vote because they hadn’t attended a branch meeting in six months.
• With Seselja standing aside from the leadership to contest the Senate preselection, the ACT Liberals have chosen Molonglo MP Jeremy Hanson as their new leader ahead of former leader Brendan Smyth. This was despite Gary Humphries’ claim that a deal had been reached between Seselja and another MP, Alistair Coe, in which Seselja would decisively throw his weight behind Coe in exchange for Coe’s support for his Senate preselection bid (which was nonetheless forthcoming, along with that of the remainder of the Liberal party room). Humphries claimed his decision to reveal the deal to the public caused it to come undone, although Coe denied it had ever been made. Coe won the party room ballot for the deputy leadership, unseating Smyth.
• Natasha Griggs, the Country Liberal Party member for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon since she unseated Labor’s Damian Hale in 2010, has seen off a preselection challenge from Peter Bourke, a clinical immunologist at Royal Darwin Hospital. In January the Northern Territory News reported a party source saying Bourke was likely to prevail, as Griggs was “not cut out to be a politician”.
• A rank-and-file Labor preselection vote for the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa will be held on March 5, pitting Labor veteran Laurie Ferguson against union and party activist Damien Ogden, who had been an aspirant for the seat when Ferguson moved there after his existing seat of Reid was merged with neighbouring Lowe at the 2010 election. Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Ogden has some support from both the “hard” and “soft” left, respectively associated with Anthony Albanese and the United Voice union, although it appears to be generally expected that Ferguson will see off the threat. A report by Samantha Maiden in the Sunday Telegraph suggests that might not avail him in the long run, with union polling conducted late last year said to point to a decisive swing against Labor of 13%.
• Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advertiser reports the Liberal preselection for Greenway has been set for March 9, with 12 shortlisted candidates including 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson, Hills councillor Yvonne Keane and “anti-bullying campaigner and motivational speaker” Brett Murray. Also in the field are business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, accountant Mark Jackson, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jayme. The choice will be made from a panel of delegates from the electorate’s five branches and head office.
All governments of all political persuasions are outsourcing services and there is nothing wrong with that where it makes economical sense. The key is in governments maintaining control to ensure minimal standards are maintained or exceeded.
[I always thought any bodily fluid would produce DNA. I guess I was wrong.]
DNA is in cell nuclei. It can also be found in some fluids which include dead and breaking down cells (like sputum or saliva).
ModLin
NSW is reporting a 30% increase in membership – my understanding the 8000 target has been exceeded.
crikey whitey@3849
Oh yeah? 😀
So not just WA but Australia experiences the hottest summer on record.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-01/australia-experiences-hottest-summer-on-record/4547746
[“Rudd’s dismissal is the most unfair , unjust, harsh and publicly humiliating in recent times. Should a reinstatement occur, the scale of Rudd’s revenge on those who wronged him would be in keeping with the power of his intellect, the size of his ego and his capacity for implementation”]
Sounds like a Giant Dummy Spit to me.
Anniversary Wednesday came and went with nary a whimper from Mr. Rudd.
As for the OM journos who confidently predicted his re-ascension… you’re full of shit guys.
[my say
Posted Friday, March 1, 2013 at 9:11 pm | PERMALINK
rummel
your son sounds as clever as my grandson]
Thanks Mysay, your grandson must be a very smart fella 🙂
[ Anniversary Wednesday came and went with nary a whimper from Mr. Rudd.
As for the OM journos who confidently predicted his re-ascension… you’re full of shit guys. ]
The only place you hear about it now appears to be right here on PB. From the usual trilobites.
As BB says.
“All governments of all political persuasions are outsourcing services and there is nothing wrong with that where it makes economical sense. The key is in governments maintaining control to ensure minimal standards are maintained or exceeded.”.
Easier said than done that’s why you have aboriginal men dying in the back of unairconditioned prison vans while being transported through the wa goldfields in summer. And then you have to make those responsible accountable which took years . These international service companies play governments on a break I don’t even think he company involved in this case Lost the contract
Wednesday 27th February 8pm My compliant to the Abc over Mad as Hell
Comments: While comedy is always subjective, facts are not. In week one of Mad as Hell Shaun McCallef refrerred to the Prime minister Julia Gillard, as the ‘caretaker prime minister’. A factual error which I assumed would be picked up and corrected.M/s Gillard is the legitimate and serving prime minister. The caretake convention applies after the Pm visits the govenor general to notify the election date ( usually 5-6 weeks prior to the actual date).
This week ‘the caretaker prime minister’ was referred to again.
This is just factually wrong and I would expect a retraction and apology to be issued.
Got the usual automated response.
Bushfire Bill@3856
And who better to judge than you? 😐
Oh. rossmcg.
Thank you for the reminder.
[The only place you hear about it now appears to be right here on PB. From the usual trilobites.]
Whose numbers have dropped off sharply this week I’ve noticed. 🙂
Rossmcg tragically there have been too many deaths in custody under both government and contract personnel.
davidwh@3865
A very small number compared to those who die due to the failures of the Mental Health System. Hundreds each year.
george has just sent this through.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/georgebludger/8518217512/in/photostream
I have no problems with governments looking at alternative ways of delivering services.
What I do have a problem with is taking an ideological view of service delivery and fudging figures/facts to try to make a case that doesn’t stack up just to “win” the argument that services should be outsourced.
When historical examples clearly show numerous examples where outsourcing has led to greater costs to government and worse service delivery outcomes I think all such attempts need to be examined very closely indeed.
And ideally any such recommendations should be assessed by some sort of “honest broker” – like the Productivity Commission – not good ole’ Pete the smirk making an ambit claim such that they can go ahead and privatize only “a little bit” “nowhere near what was recommended”.
Bemused. Produce some stats. Perhaps along the lines of the following contorted reasoning.
FEW ASYLUM SEEKERS CHARGED WITH CRIME. SMH.
What the FARQ is this supposed to imply. NOT OFFENDING ENOUGH.
Asylum seekers living in the community on bridging visas are about 45 times less likely to be charged with a crime than members of the general public.
Figures released to Fairfax Media by the department of immigration and citizenship show that since November 2011, 12,100 asylum seekers have been released into the community on bridging visas.
A department spokeswoman said that ”a handful” – or five or less – had been charged with a crime. This equates to just 41.32 people per 100,000 people.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics has not compiled national crime figures for the 2011-12 financial year etc
But in 2010-11, the last time it compiled national crime data, the ABS reported that police launched proceedings against 371,040 offenders, or 1896 people per 100,000 people.
This is more than 45 times the number of proceedings lodged against asylum seekers on bridging visas in the community.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/few-asylum-seekers-charged-with-crime-20130228-2f98h.html#ixzz2MHLwlzkm
3
Anyone see Rudd on sunrise this morning? He didnt strike me as someone who believed he was about to re-ascend. For all his reputed political genius and communication skills he seems a terrible strategist, with no sign Caucus is in any mood for change. Even the media seems to realise his race is run and over.
I got an ALP email tonight,from Wayne Swan, asking me to sign up to help with the fight.
Also it asked if I am interested in joining the ALP. There was also a social media Share button.
I filled it in and I will see what happens next.
BK:
I’d laugh except the topic is just too macabre.
Well done george for depicting the repulsive Morrison and Abbott so aptly.
crikey whitey@3869
Why do you want me to produce stats?
[Anniversary Wednesday came and went with nary a whimper from Mr. Rudd.
As for the OM journos who confidently predicted his re-ascension… you’re full of shit guys.]
“The Ides of March have come.”
“Aye, Caesar, but not gone.”
I think the Ides of March are on the 15th, but Caucus meets on the 12th, and that’s near enough. That’s when all bluffs will be called.
@jackol/3868
That’s the whole problem with Turnbull and his Productivity Commission for NBN. It will never be positive for the ones who rollout the policy initially.
It’s exactly the same situation in the UK with their broadband policy:
http://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2013/02/uk-government-study-examines-the-impact-of-its-broadband-investment.html
Jackol I agree in principle however we elect governments to govern and then every three or four years we get to judge the outcome of their decisions.
Puff
if you do join, make sure that at some stage you sign up with your local branch.
I’ve just had a nightmare week, trying to explain to people who are members why it is they can’t vote in preselections.
I don’t know what the rules are in SA, but in Victoria if you join by contacting Head Office, you’re put into what’s called ‘central branch’. You can be in that basically forever and never qualify to vote in party elections.
No one ever thinks it matters, of course, until an actual vote comes up and they’re left out….
Puffy,
Me too. Lets see how this goes…
davidwh – I’m not sure what you’re trying to say there. You seem to be suggesting that it doesn’t matter that politicians may be trying to pull a fast one because whatever they do we can punish them in 2 years’ time… kind of stating the obvious but it’s not adding to the debate about how we should be governed.
And electoral “judgment” is such a crude tool that it tells the players nothing about individual decisions that they have made in the electoral term.
ie it’s a very poor training mechanism to the point of dysfunction.
Davidwh
We all know about the tragedy of deaths in custody but when it happens in a police station somebody can be called to account, whether or not successfully has been another matter sadly But when a corporation providing a privatised service hits strife they invariably just pull down the shutters, refuse to answer and their mates in government can always resort to the scoundrels defence, commercial confidentiality.
zoomster@3877
I think “Central Branch” is basically a dopey idea that should be done away with for the reasons you identify plus others.
[I think the Ides of March are on the 15th, ]
Not the 21st?
[That’s when all bluffs will be called.]
and the wrongs of 2010 will be reversed and paul howes will be a blubbering mess.
bemused
I do have members on Central branch who know what it means, have been offered the opportunity to join a branch, and don’t want to.
When I’ve asked why, it’s usually because they want to support the Labor party but aren’t interested in further involvement.
crikey whitey
“rudd will not be back.”
I know. I was just wondering where that journo pulled Rudd’s supposed ‘skill at implementation’ line from. The upshot being that if history is any guide his ‘wrongers’ have nothing to fear.
Has this small poll of western Sydney seats been remarked upon yet?
FEDERAL Labor faces electoral annihilation, losing seats previously considered ultra-safe, unless the party switches back to Kevin Rudd, a new poll has found.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-facing-wipeout-poll-20130301-2fc6u.html#ixzz2MHk7mQQ0
Not at all Jackol. In the case of QLD Newman was elected to deliver on some specific commitments including getting the economy back on track, fixing up the problems in health and deliver on more accountable government. Despite some well highlighted problems I think they are delivering on those commitments. However it’s still too early to make real judgements on the outcomes.
I think the Costello is a report on how a real economic conservative would deal with QLD’s problems if it was possible to ignore political realities. Costello has that luxury where Newman doesn’t.
the spectator@3883
I am not so sure.
Rudd may not want to accept a “hospital pass”.
He may prefer to let certain people stew in their own juice.
Confesions re record heat_________3855
____________________________________
One has to see this statistic as further evidence of climate change beginning to be an uncomfortable fact of our daily lives
One wonders what awaits us in the years ahead if this has been achieved in a non-El Nino year
Prof Lovelock ,in his books”Gaia’s Revenge” singled out places like inland Australia as places where extremely high temps in the future would make life almost imposssible for humans
Even this year places in far inland S.A and W.A were near the margin of survival….
Until this week ,when we had a great break with several inches of rain.,Melbourne has had one of the driest summers on record…and the evidence of my own large garden was that trees never before stressed were near the edge of survival after 5 almost rainless months
but still I think the Denialists will continue to deny even in the face of such evidence..it’s the “my old father smoked 50 cigs a day and he never got lung cancer ” routine!
I fear the argument will be lost till it’s too late…this is also Prof Lovelock’s view too.
[Has this small poll of western Sydney seats been remarked upon yet?]
Yes.
@davidwh/3887
In the voters eye’s he hasn’t done that yet.
Nearly a year since he’s been elected, and remember the Coalition’s BB Policy is based on “Faster, Quicker, Cheaper” argument.
Trying to throw a bone to a dog would be too kind for him.
[Not the 21st?]
No, I’ve checked now, it’s the 15th. “Ides” means middle, so the ides of any month is the middle day of the month.
zoomster@3884
Not a good enough reason really.
How do they ‘support the Labor party’ without doing anything?
bemused
mystifies me. I suppose they think their membership fees are sufficient (they’re not, of course).
confessions@3882
Ides of March is Definitely the 15th.
the spectator
“and the wrongs of 2010 will be reversed and paul howes will be a blubbering mess.”
Hahaha. Keep dreaming, it’s kinda cute.
alias@3886
And here’s the nub of it:
[The exclusive Fairfax Media/ReachTel automated poll, taken in four safe Labor electorates in Sydney’s west, has found much of Labor’s collapse can be attributed to negative perceptions of Ms Gillard’s leadership.]
I would love to see a Reachtel poll on “How would you feel about Mr Abbott being PM of Australia?”
Ides of March – the 15th: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ides_of_March
Psephos:
Sorry am getting mixed up with equinoxes.