The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, down from 56-44 at the previous poll three weeks ago, with both Labor and the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 31% and 47% respectively and the Greens up two to 11%. Tony Abbott has apparently hit the lead as preferred prime minister; more to follow.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Julia Gillard’s ratings have plunged yet further, her approval down six points to 30% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is effectively unchanged at 33% (steady) and 55% (down one), but his 41-39 deficit on preferred prime minister is now a lead of 40-36.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face result combines the last two weekends of polling, and it shows the Coalition sustaining a commanding primary vote lead of 44% (down one) to 33.5% (steady), with the Greens up a point to 10%. On respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition lead has narrowed from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5, while on previous election preferences it’s down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.
Other news:
• The Australian Electoral Commission has accepted Julian Assange’s enrolment in the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, which clears him to proceed with his Senate bid unless someone cares to mount a legal challenge. I had expected that Assange might fall foul of the requirement that a person enrolling overseas must intend to resume residing in Australia within six years of having left. To the best of my admittedly limited knowledge, Assange was last here furtively in 2007. Another legal grey area is his political asylum status, and what it might mean for the constitutional injunction that parliamentarians not be “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or … a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”.
• Gary Humphries, who has held the Liberals’ ACT Senate seat since 2003 and was the territory’s Chief Minister from October 2000 to November 2001, has lost preselection to Zed Seselja, leader of the ACT opposition through five years and two election defeats. Seselja prevailed in the contentious party ballot on Saturday by margin of 114 to 84. Humphries says he will abide by the result, but even before the vote his supporters had petitioned for it to be referred to a divisional council meeting on the grounds that the process had been rushed to Seselja’s advantage. That would throw the vote open to around 400 extra party members who were denied a vote because they hadn’t attended a branch meeting in six months.
• With Seselja standing aside from the leadership to contest the Senate preselection, the ACT Liberals have chosen Molonglo MP Jeremy Hanson as their new leader ahead of former leader Brendan Smyth. This was despite Gary Humphries’ claim that a deal had been reached between Seselja and another MP, Alistair Coe, in which Seselja would decisively throw his weight behind Coe in exchange for Coe’s support for his Senate preselection bid (which was nonetheless forthcoming, along with that of the remainder of the Liberal party room). Humphries claimed his decision to reveal the deal to the public caused it to come undone, although Coe denied it had ever been made. Coe won the party room ballot for the deputy leadership, unseating Smyth.
• Natasha Griggs, the Country Liberal Party member for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon since she unseated Labor’s Damian Hale in 2010, has seen off a preselection challenge from Peter Bourke, a clinical immunologist at Royal Darwin Hospital. In January the Northern Territory News reported a party source saying Bourke was likely to prevail, as Griggs was “not cut out to be a politician”.
• A rank-and-file Labor preselection vote for the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa will be held on March 5, pitting Labor veteran Laurie Ferguson against union and party activist Damien Ogden, who had been an aspirant for the seat when Ferguson moved there after his existing seat of Reid was merged with neighbouring Lowe at the 2010 election. Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Ogden has some support from both the “hard” and “soft” left, respectively associated with Anthony Albanese and the United Voice union, although it appears to be generally expected that Ferguson will see off the threat. A report by Samantha Maiden in the Sunday Telegraph suggests that might not avail him in the long run, with union polling conducted late last year said to point to a decisive swing against Labor of 13%.
• Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advertiser reports the Liberal preselection for Greenway has been set for March 9, with 12 shortlisted candidates including 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson, Hills councillor Yvonne Keane and “anti-bullying campaigner and motivational speaker” Brett Murray. Also in the field are business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, accountant Mark Jackson, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jayme. The choice will be made from a panel of delegates from the electorate’s five branches and head office.
Happy days
Leroy:
I saw that tweet but just thought it was a fluke.
OM has caught up
“@BBCBreaking: Pope Benedict changes rules for election of his successor, making it possible for conclave to be held earlier than planned”
[Tony Abbott in lead as Julia Gillard’s approval plunges
BY:DENNIS SHANAHAN, POLITICAL EDITOR From: The Australian February 25, 2013 11:00PM
TONY Abbott has a clear lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister for the first time since July last year, as Ms Gillard’s personal support collapses and Labor’s primary vote languishes at a seven-month low.
Voter satisfaction with the Prime Minister has plunged to its lowest since August last year.]
45-55 ok after the avalanche of Rudd and Gillard Gawn this last week. This sense of chaos can only be sustained for so long, which shows why all the “resign now” crap from the OldMedia.
40-60 even I’d be worried…
Hard to argue against an obvious trend now.
55:45 blah blah blah. All that huff and puff, doom and gloom for the ALP from the MSM and barely a move. Chins up genuine ALP supporters. The only people unhappy with this poll are the Tories and Ruddites. If this is as good as it as it gets for the LNP then the ALP, with a good campaign, remain competitive. Night all.
[A rank-and-file Labor preselection vote for the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa will be held on March 5, pitting Labor veteran Laurie Ferguson against union and party activist Damien Ogden]
I hope Fergie comes out swinging if he gets dumped! Would be worth the price of admission, that one :devil:
davidwh
Yes the Greens are polling well. Cate Faehrman may well be right that the Greens will win Melbourne in their own right.
Copied from last thread
[I actually saw someone on twitter who got it right, a right winger who then deleted the tweet earlier tonight. Will keep an eye on that next time and see if its a fluke.
Possum also said earlier trend would indicate 55-45 +/-3%. He was spot on.]
You know you are travelling well when a poll comes out that is equivalent to you having a >1.2 million vote lead is accepted by the other side with a sense of relief!!!!!
I used to know Goldbloom’s daughter. He wasn’t a party member, but he was a lifelong close fellow traveller. He never got over the fall of the Soviet Union, simply couldn’t understand it, and died soon after.
From previous thread:
3294
confessions
[Hard to predict what this cyclone might do]
Hard to predict what any cyclone will do. Notoriously fickle beasts.
Trust me. Lived through about half a century of cyclone seasons, including several direct hits.
WHAT! The poll 3 weeks ago wasnt a rogue?
[You know you are travelling well when a poll comes out that is equivalent to you having a >1.2 million vote lead is accepted by the other side with a sense of relief!!!!!]
And then you realise the election isn’t for another 7 months, hence the other side’s ‘sense of relief’.
D’oh!!!
[guytaur
Posted Monday, February 25, 2013 at 11:11 pm | PERMALINK
OM has caught up
“@BBCBreaking: Pope Benedict changes rules for election of his successor, making it possible for conclave to be held earlier than planned”]
The Anti Gillard…..
ML
Yeah keep on gloating. Howeever look at that 11% for the Greens. Imagine if Labor goes same sex marriage.
Their primary would go up as that would grap Green and Liberal voters.
There are some Liberals who would vote Labor for SSM who would never vote Green.
How the pro-JG forces can see a poll confirming a trend thaqt spells near-certain electoral annihilation as a positive development is beyond reason.
Rossmore@7
Genuine ALP people will make a careful appraisal of that and look for the reasons behind it. What will you do?
rummel
😆 good one
Guytaur yes the Greens seem to be the partner with the momentum at present
just as there are some labor voters who would never vote for ssm.
Mod Lib 11 four exclamation marks reveals your disappointment. Didnt the ALPs TPP improve? If thats the best the LNP can do after a bad two weeks for the ALP then that suggests 45 is a base the ALP can build on. Lets see how the LNP performs when the scrutiny blowtorch is applied to their policies.
You may as well weight this poll towards the lower end of the MoE. Everyone knows the Greens vote is always lower than their polling
23: I don’t think many Libs would be too unhappy with an ALP primary of 31.
Bemused 19 see my post at 23. Genuine ALP supporters will stay behind their leader and fight the good fight. What they wont do is bleat and pine for a former leader. Get over it, the Rudd parrot is dead.
I’m actually shocked. I thought the ALP would be getting a shellacking. I was tipping 58:42 or worse.
45:55 is pretty good given the horror press that the ALP had over the last few weeks.
7 Months out from the 2001 election, the ALP were set to give the LNP a serious flogging. There was the similar horse race journalism (although not to the mind numbing extent there is now).
Government gains ground but ALP would still easily win – Bulletin (June 2001)
Psephos@12
That is more plausible.
I used to see a bit of Frank Hardy around that time and he proudly proclaimed himself to be the “last true communist in Australia”. He used to carry on a treat about Monica Attard’s reports from Russia and how she didn’t understand what was happening.
He died not all that long after those events too.
The trend is my friend
[James J
Posted Monday, February 25, 2013 at 11:23 pm | PERMALINK
23: I don’t think many Libs would be too unhappy with an ALP primary of 31.]
I agree. Getting close to the Green Zone!
Rossmore:
The ALP’s problem is 31 is the base they “can build on”. That is the current vote.
The LNP primary vote is in the high 40s consistently across polls, in state polls, in marginal seat polling apparently as well. Consistency, consistency, consistency. But don’t fret. If you are happy with a 31% primary vote, I am very happy as well, so everyone is a winner!!!!
Jinx James J :devil:
alias@18
As is their entire world view. 👿
Wow, :monkey: ahead on PPM? Makes me wonder at the stupidity of some of my fellow Australians.
Bobalot
Yeah MediaWatch highlighted how wrong some of it has been too.
This is why I still have Labor in with a chance to win. Incumbency and the way media reports does change during a campaign.
As does the focus of the people who have to make a decision on that Saturday 14 September.
Not much to look at really. The media will focus on PPM and satisfaction ratings to keep up their desire for leadership change.
25 They will be unhappy, coz in their dreams it was going to be sub 30, judging by the behaviour of the tory hacks this last few days.
Rossmore@23
Except the ALP base is not 45, it is 31 IIRC.
Rossmore@26
I do not think the majority of Caucus is suicidal and will continue on a Kamikaze mission with Julia.
@senthorun: Now, whatever happens, we MUST get the anti-discrimination laws passed before the next election. Sign. Share. http://t.co/nFdDMrTmGL #auspol
I think Labor should do this. It will gain more support in lead up to the campaign once legislation passed.
If however for some reason Labor lost it would really steam up Abbott if these and media laws had been passed.
Really make sure if he gets in he really is only a one term PM.
[a party source saying Bourke was likely to prevail, as Griggs was “not cut out to be a politician”.]
I had the pleasure of meeting Ms Griggs in my former life. She is a very dim blub indeed, even for a CLP politician.
Mod Lib if you’re happy and complacent, then that’s exactly where we want the Tories. Pride invariably comes before a fall. And boy there is nothing worse than a proud Tory. Generally a sign that they will start losing their enforced self-discipline and start gloating. By the way have u given up on Turnbull?
So come on sages and pundits.
When PMJG had quite a lead over Abbott all the talk was about the TPP.
Now, all the talk is “Abbott taking over the lead”.
How was it that these same sages told us that such leadership leads do not win elections? There were a few here and they were not all conservative hacks either.
While 45 for Labor is not that flash, the fact that there has been a cacophony of “She’s gone” stuff for two weeks from the Murdoch and Fairfax press yet the TTP has not changed in their hoped for direction one jot.
I suspect that it will be business as usual for many months to come.
Polls at 55-45 for Labor are not that brilliant but it is not end-game stuff with a whole football season, budget and election campaign to go.
Despite the high hopes of some, politics is a not consuming the thoughts and actions of the general public.
While our host disagrees with my opinion, I am yet to detect any real passion here in the West. A week ago, I said, ‘What election campaign?’ and my question is still the same.
While it is likely the Liberals will win comfortably, one would never know we are in the throes of an election campaign here.
The federal one, still months away, is even more remote.
If Labor is still at 45 two weeks out the portents are not so bright but we have seen the Coalition come back from this on two occasions to my memory.
The real problem is the “Bring Back Rudd” chorus will be heartened by this.
This means more countless hours of circular points of view here for the next few weeks. I think I will leave it to braver souls than myself for the next little while.
My comments re Rudd still stand:
*Get on board or shut up or challenge – and make the damn challenge soon so we can all get some peace and quiet.
Labor, Greens, left generally need to realize that the Murdochracy does not intend giving Labor or Greens any clear air. Expect it to get worse rather than better
So what to do. First get the warnings and facts out there about distortion and conspiracy.
Second try and put pressure on ABC, Fairfax and other mainstream media to provide some fair reporting.
Third get out among the populace and via alternate media with solid analysis of what is going on.
Labor and Greens talk about policy differences rather than providing media headlines with silly attacks.
bemused
You are right Caucus is not suicidal. Thus they will do no leadership change. Mr Rudd knows this.
Its only some like you and the MSM that do not.
Even Turnbull knows this which is why he was talking it up again on QandA.
That puts you on the same side as the Earl of Wentworth against Labor members.
[By the way have u given up on Turnbull?]
Nup
Bemused 39 time will tell, but this poll is unlikely to add to the appetite for a change.
[A rank-and-file Labor preselection vote for the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa will be held on March 5, pitting Labor veteran Laurie Ferguson against union and party activist Damien Ogden]
If the NSW ALP was half serious about reform, it would tell Ferguson, Chris Hayes, John Murphy and Jill Hall to retire. All are a waste of (once) safe seats.
[You know you are travelling well when a poll comes out that is equivalent to you having a >1.2 million vote lead is accepted by the other side with a sense of relief!!!!!]
What it means is that “The Depths” are no longer as deep as they used to be: three steps forward, but only two back.
If this is a bad as it gets then the inevitable upswing will take Labor to parity or better in a few months, just in time for the election.
All the Leadershit and Ruddstoration ends up as not too bad a result, considering.
The days of Rummel’s 61-39 are long gone.
Anyway, Rudd Challenge Aniversary on Wednesday, then I expect some cooling off.
The media aren’t as powerful as they used to be.
[When PMJG had quite a lead over Abbott all the talk was about the TPP.
Now, all the talk is “Abbott taking over the lead”.]
That, and TPP.