Newspoll: 60-40 to Coalition in NSW

The latest bi-monthly Newspoll result for New South Wales shows essentially no change on voting intention, but an improvement in Barry O’Farrell’s personal ratings.

James J and GhostWhoVotes report that the New South Wales state Newspoll result for January and February has the Coalition leading 60-40 on two-party preferred, up from 59-41, from primary votes of 46% for the Coalition (up one), 27% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Barry O’Farrell reverses a downward trend by picking up five on approval to 43% and dropping two on disapproval to 38%, while John Robertson is respectively up one to 28% and up two to disapproval to 35%. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 44-21 to 48-19.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

29 comments on “Newspoll: 60-40 to Coalition in NSW”

  1. Thanks Eddie and Macca
    Thanks for finally working out the backing coal seam gas explorers in sensitive areas is politically crazy as well as being wrong.

  2. An interesting result which would have senate implications. It seems to be that there is a chance with a result like this that the right wing could still lose the fourth seat in NSW, if for example the minor right wing parties preference Labor ahead of the coalition like they did some places in Western Australia. In Queensland it will all depend on if Katter can draw in preferences from the other right wing parties and some preferences from the LNP. His task would be easier if he is competing with the greens for the final seat especially since I think Labor preferences will be flowing to the greens in a weaker manner then last election.

  3. I still think that the LNP’s opportunity at picking up seats in Queensland is probably confined to the seats of Moreton and Petrie, seats that were held by the LNP before 2007. Also it is important to remember Brisbane has not been held by the right since 1975 and might very well flip back even if the LNP win in a landslide. Overall I think the tracker has the result about right since these results could very well open up seats for the LNP in NSW and South Australia.

  4. At the moment. There is a real chance of the liberals winning 4 seats in nsw, qld, wa and sa giving them a majority in the senate in their own right

  5. At the moment. There is a real chance of the liberals winning 4 seats in nsw, qld, wa and sa giving them a majority in the senate in their own right

  6. Having said that Qld is recovering somewhat for Labor, NSW polling remains aweful. Labor can’t blame the voters either, or the media. Despite Labor sniggeringly referring to the new premier as “Fatty O’Barrell”, the fact is that the new NSW premier has made few mistakes so far. He seems a much more reliable performer than Campbell Newman. If he can achieve some meaingful reforms of the NSW State authorities, like Sydney Rail, and be seen to fix some of the problems, liek a second harbour crossing and NW Sydney rail, he could be premier for a long time.

    It will be interesting to see if the State NSW LIberal vote translates into the federal Senate. The more links that are exposed between NSW State Labor and Federal Labor, the more I think that is likely. Liberals need two plus Xenephon to gain effctive control; thre for outright control. I think picking up four Senate seats is a tough ask. However I think NSW and WA are strong chances, which, with Xenephon, would give the Libs effective control.

    Dovif, what basis do you have for claiming an SA senate seat for Liberals? I live there and have seen no evidence for that. I understand your other claims.

  7. Hi Socrate

    I am using Bludger track 2013 to the right, where he is quote 2PP numbers

    In Qld and WA, where the right 2PP indicate the right to have 4.13 and 4.235 quotas, that should be sufficient for the right to win 4 seats with leakage, and the Left (ALP and greens) parties to get only 2 seats with 2.87 and 2.765 quotas

    In NSW the L/R 2PP is 56.5/43.5 ie a left right split of 3.955/3.045. with the ongoing ICAA investigation, the right has a chance for 4 quotas too

    In SA, the L/R 2PP is currently 55.3-44.7, ie 3.871 (R)Quota to 3.129 (L), which would point to a R/L split of 3/3. But it might be possible for parties like Family first/Democrats/Xenophone to siphone more then .230 from the left (and some from the right) which would leave the left with about 2.9quota. With the correct preference harvesting, the minor party can finish in front of the 4th Liberals (for example, after 3 Liberals and 1 ALP get elected. the quota could be ALP .95 Greens .94, FF/Xenophone/Democrats .6, Liberals .51) at which point the Liberals preference will elect the 4th independant senators leaving the Greens/ALP to fight for the last spot.

    Alternatively the Greens might only be on .6 of a quota, and being starve of preference (apart from the ALP) it is passed by FF/Xenophone/Democrates, which wins the last seats with Liberal preference

    It is all possibilities, but atm a L//R split of 3/3 is most likely

  8. Nick Xenophone is a strange one he is probably slightly to the left of center but not on all issues. I was reading Anthony’s senate projections it and he misses the fact that to get a working senate all the liberals have to do is pick up 4 seats in one of the states be it NSW, Queensland, or WA. Even back in 2007 which was a low point for the liberals, they were only two percentage away from getting a third quota, surly there support has increased since then.

  9. Also Julian Assange might just make the Victoria a state worth watching with the disillusionment in the general community. He is known among my friends as someone new how can shack things up, the nuclear option as you will.

  10. Viktor

    I think the odds of SA returning 3Lib/2ALP/1Xeno would make it possible for a Liberal governments to pass legislation with 4 (newly elected) votes from SA after the next election. ie bypass ALP/Greens.

    If there is a Liberal government, that is

  11. [the fact is that the new NSW premier has made few mistakes so far]

    The fact is that the new NSW premier has done very little so far. Unless you count sucking up to Ray Hadley on a daily basis as a good thing. Or cutting back financing on the Pacific Highway after spending ten years whingeing about how slow progress is. The Obeid thing won’t last forever, although the love affair between the MSM and the LNP will. That said, O’Farrell needs a conviction or two out of these ICAC proceedings. The public, especially these days, demands regular hangings and if they see Obeid walk, they will want someone to pay for it.

  12. dovif 11/12

    Fair enough. When I think back of the genius of Victorian Labor preferencing Fielding ahead of the Greens in a fit of stupidity and spite in a previous election, your comments on minor parties could hold true. I can’t see the LNP picking up four in their own right, but combined with minors, yet it is possible.

  13. Socrates

    I do not believe the Vic ALP preferencing Fielding was a mistake, it helped passed Workchoice.

    The next ALP government might prefer to have the option to negotiate with the Fieldings, Xenophone, (even Katters of the world) rather then having to rely on the greens for everything. (with the option of choosing the Greens)

    For 2013, the ALP has the option of reducing the Greens to one single senate seat (Tasmania) in Parliament. In my opinion, that might be a good outcome for the ALP

  14. If the Coalition gains three Senate seats, they will need both Madigan and Xenophon to pass bills. If they pick up four, they will need only Madigan. If they pick up five, they will have a majority in their own right. Thus, to repeal the carbon price, they need only three gains, but to bring back WorkChoices, they need five.

    In 2007 the Coalition won three seats out of six in NSW, Vic, Qld and WA. To win a fourth seat in these states they will need 57% after preferences, which is possible in NSW, Qld and WA. On current polling NSW seems a fair chance for four, WA some chance, Qld little chance.

    In Vic Labor will lose their third seat to the Greens, not the Coalition, unless the Libs preference Labor, in which case Labor will hold three.

    In SA and Tas the Coalition only won two seats in 2007. On current polling they are certain to win three in Tas, and might be a chance for four. In SA they only won two because of Xenophon. I assume he will again poll a quota, so the Coalition will have to push Labor below two quotas (unlikely) or win the Green seat (more likely).

    All in all, it’s easy to see the Coalition picking up two or three, harder to see four or five.

  15. Psephos I agree with all your assessments except the one on Queensland. During Queensland state election Labor lost so badly because the greens and Katter both drew votes away from them. Bob Katter is strongly pro union and did draw votes from former Labor voters, even through they like to portray him as a radical right winger. His preference vote has higher then the greens last state election and if he gets four percent of Labor voters to put him first or to put him ahead of the greens it would be enough for a senate seat combined with the remaining vote on the right, if we assume the TTP vote for the LNP will be around 55 percent. Also if Labor does not have many votes over there first two quotas and the Green vote drops the LNP’s fourth and Bob Katters first candidate could end up being in the final two places causing the Greens preference to flow to the LNP’s Fourth candidate electing him.

  16. You’re assuming Katter intends running for the Senate. The last press report I saw said that he’d decided not to. I agree he’d walk it in if he did. Whether he can get a proxy elected is another matter.

  17. This is true. Also in WA the fourth seat would got to the nationals who are not technically apart of the coalition. In my opinion however the argument that the Greens will hold the sole balance of power in the Senate next term is by no means as certain as some outlets say it is.

  18. Oops, wrong thread.

    Speaking of errors, looks like Mike Baird has made $3 billion worth of them.
    [The latest report of the NSW auditor-general, Peter Achterstraat, shows state government agencies and departments made errors worth more than $3 billion when they handed over their books to him last July after the 2011-12 budget. The net value of state assets was misvalued by $1.28 billion while net income was out by $2 billion.]

    They say that success has many fathers and failure is an orphan. No doubt many public servants caused these errors. Baird cannot be blamed. All he did was sign the document and table it in parliament.

  19. [I think you’ll find ministers are responsible to parliament for the accuracy of documents they present]

    I think you will find that this minister, like every one of them in this government (and there have been a few) will skate. And it will go one happening for a number of years until the utter stupidity washes through the electorate aka Ray Hadley’s audience. Then again, that may take some time.

    The MSM/LNP coalition are now just a couple of governments away from total domination. They aren’t going to watch a little thing like legal responsibility get in their way. For confirmation, watch the media coverage of Artie Sinodinis’ difficulties with the Obeid/ICAC thing. Oh, I forgot. It’s back there on page 27, a three line paragraph, right next to where the News Ltd summary of the Ashby abortion should be. In other words, whitewashed.

  20. I agree Psephos and was being sarcastic. One mistake in a large document is forgiveable but multiple large errors in a document as important as the budget (and presumably carefully checked), reflects poorly on Baird.

  21. Socrate

    It will take 15 years to sack at the ALP hangers-on that resides in the public service for the last 15 years. I think I will give the benefit of the doubt to Baird for the next 14 years


    the Qld 2PP is 58% to the Liberal, I believe KAP will draw enough votes from the ALP in the senate to make it almost a certain 3 LNP, 2 AL, 1 KAP/ONP/CDP/FF. The NLP will likely have 3+ quota in its own right, its surplus will likely elect the survivor of KAP/ONP/CDP/FF. The Greens will be well short of a quota, and ALP will be short of 2 quotas, they will fight out for last spot

    It is just who will get the last guernsey

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