Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest Newspoll is no worse for Labor than the last on voting intention, but Julia Gillard has lost her lead as preferred prime minister.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, down from 56-44 at the previous poll three weeks ago, with both Labor and the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 31% and 47% respectively and the Greens up two to 11%. Tony Abbott has apparently hit the lead as preferred prime minister; more to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that Julia Gillard’s ratings have plunged yet further, her approval down six points to 30% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is effectively unchanged at 33% (steady) and 55% (down one), but his 41-39 deficit on preferred prime minister is now a lead of 40-36.

UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face result combines the last two weekends of polling, and it shows the Coalition sustaining a commanding primary vote lead of 44% (down one) to 33.5% (steady), with the Greens up a point to 10%. On respondent-allocated preferences the Coalition lead has narrowed from 56-44 to 54.5-45.5, while on previous election preferences it’s down from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Other news:

• The Australian Electoral Commission has accepted Julian Assange’s enrolment in the Melbourne seat of Isaacs, which clears him to proceed with his Senate bid unless someone cares to mount a legal challenge. I had expected that Assange might fall foul of the requirement that a person enrolling overseas must intend to resume residing in Australia within six years of having left. To the best of my admittedly limited knowledge, Assange was last here furtively in 2007. Another legal grey area is his political asylum status, and what it might mean for the constitutional injunction that parliamentarians not be “under any acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience, or adherence to a foreign power, or … a subject or a citizen or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign power”.

• Gary Humphries, who has held the Liberals’ ACT Senate seat since 2003 and was the territory’s Chief Minister from October 2000 to November 2001, has lost preselection to Zed Seselja, leader of the ACT opposition through five years and two election defeats. Seselja prevailed in the contentious party ballot on Saturday by margin of 114 to 84. Humphries says he will abide by the result, but even before the vote his supporters had petitioned for it to be referred to a divisional council meeting on the grounds that the process had been rushed to Seselja’s advantage. That would throw the vote open to around 400 extra party members who were denied a vote because they hadn’t attended a branch meeting in six months.

• With Seselja standing aside from the leadership to contest the Senate preselection, the ACT Liberals have chosen Molonglo MP Jeremy Hanson as their new leader ahead of former leader Brendan Smyth. This was despite Gary Humphries’ claim that a deal had been reached between Seselja and another MP, Alistair Coe, in which Seselja would decisively throw his weight behind Coe in exchange for Coe’s support for his Senate preselection bid (which was nonetheless forthcoming, along with that of the remainder of the Liberal party room). Humphries claimed his decision to reveal the deal to the public caused it to come undone, although Coe denied it had ever been made. Coe won the party room ballot for the deputy leadership, unseating Smyth.

• Natasha Griggs, the Country Liberal Party member for the Darwin-based seat of Solomon since she unseated Labor’s Damian Hale in 2010, has seen off a preselection challenge from Peter Bourke, a clinical immunologist at Royal Darwin Hospital. In January the Northern Territory News reported a party source saying Bourke was likely to prevail, as Griggs was “not cut out to be a politician”.

• A rank-and-file Labor preselection vote for the south-western Sydney seat of Werriwa will be held on March 5, pitting Labor veteran Laurie Ferguson against union and party activist Damien Ogden, who had been an aspirant for the seat when Ferguson moved there after his existing seat of Reid was merged with neighbouring Lowe at the 2010 election. Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Ogden has some support from both the “hard” and “soft” left, respectively associated with Anthony Albanese and the United Voice union, although it appears to be generally expected that Ferguson will see off the threat. A report by Samantha Maiden in the Sunday Telegraph suggests that might not avail him in the long run, with union polling conducted late last year said to point to a decisive swing against Labor of 13%.

Ben McClellan of the Blacktown Advertiser reports the Liberal preselection for Greenway has been set for March 9, with 12 shortlisted candidates including 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson, Hills councillor Yvonne Keane and “anti-bullying campaigner and motivational speaker” Brett Murray. Also in the field are business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, accountant Mark Jackson, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jayme. The choice will be made from a panel of delegates from the electorate’s five branches and head office.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,100 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition”

  1. Anne Summers, at least, sticks up for the PM. She doesn’t like the mockers.

    … it is … increasingly absurd the way the media no longer waits for leadership failure; it now anticipates it and, with no attempt to disguise its bloodlust, makes the presumption of a change in leadership the prism for day-to-day coverage of politics.

    Such is the fate of Julia Gillard, whose demise is confidently predicted on a daily basis by the politician commentariat. If her party doesn’t get her, the voters will. Either way she is dead, politically speaking.

    Such is the confidence of the journalists and shock-jocks and others who peddle these opinions, that they see no need to wait for history to happen.

    Why bother waiting for the actual voters to actually vote when these pundits have persuaded themselves that already it’s all over?

    As a result, they feel no obligation to respect the person, let along the office of prime minister, since in their minds she is already gone.

    So they feel free to mock her in ways that would have been inconceivable with other leaders and, as recently as a year ago, even with her.

    Gillard has always had to put up with intense, often unfair and sometimes cruel commentary about her clothes, her voice, even her body shape.

    But now there is a new element. The pundits are scoffing and mocking her every action, from her new glasses to every policy or political step she takes, as if to say: why bother, lady, it’s all over anyway.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pms-critics-make-a-mockery-of-political-debate-20130301-2fbi7.html#ixzz2MIKGFMQ1

    Rude, crude and unattractive, and wanker Kenny is one of the principal offenders along with Fairfax “first class brand” Peter Hartcher (the editor of the SMH was on ABC radio this afternoon saying how wonderful Hartcher is and how much space he’ll be given in the new format paper).

    I never thought I’d say this but the SMH and The Age are now even worse than The Australian.

    News has some residual respect for the woman, but Fairfax has clearly made a decision to be a thuggish as possible.

    Anyways, it won’t be long now. I confidently predict that, after an initial curiosity spurt, the laughingly terms “compact” version of the paper will die a thousand deaths.

    The editor bloke sounded FAR too shrill about its chances. It’s a career terminator for him if he believes punters buy their crappy rag for Peter Hartcher’s rubbish.

  2. rummel

    You know as well as I do you don’t require permission to seek asylum. And you also know as well as I do you wouldn’t give a fuck about asking for permission or waiting in queues if you were an Hazari running from the Taliban.

    To me it’s all rather simple. A rigorous investigation of the bona fides of an applicant’s claim while confined/supervised on Australian soil. If found to be legitimate, immediate release to the community and if not, detention until they can be safely sent back home.

    Turning the boats back at sea using our bloody Navy is thoroughly ridiculous and inhumane on so many levels I won’t go into them but my impression of you is that you would agree anyway. You just plan on voting for Abbott because Julia Gillard took the jelly out of your donut somewhere along the way.

  3. From “I’m here to DESTROY the NBN” to…

    [Mr Abbott and Mr Turnbull will soon come together to launch the Coalition’s broadband policy. As communications spokesman, Mr Turnbull said the message on the NBN was that “we will complete it sooner, cheaper, and as a consequence, it will be more affordable“.]

    Whatever “it” is, it’s not Fibre To The Home as envisaged by Labor.

    They first misused the term “Broadband”, now they’re corrupting and redefining the term “NBN”.

    The Coalition is playing a semantic game.

    More proof (as if any was needed) that they intend to lie their way into government.

  4. The Daily Telegraph sounds sort-of desperate…

    [THEY struggle with power bills and cost of living pressures and overwhelmingly they rank Julia Gillard’s week-long Rooty Hill sleepout an election “stunt”.

    More than 4500 Daily Telegraph readers responded to an online survey about Ms Gillard’s western Sydney campaign, which starts with a rally of ALP faithful tomorrow night.

    – See more at: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydneys-west-rates-julia-gillards-efforts-terrible-rooty-hill-visit-is-just-a-stunt/story-e6freuy9-1226588785559#sthash.Lxvn7xkc.dpuf ]

    It’s just straight-out lying. “On-line survey”… what twaddle.

  5. absolutetwaddle

    I support taking refugees from camps who cant afford plane tickets halfway across the world then pay thousands to a people smuggler and then dump their mobile phones as there getting on the boat.

    Boat people are economic refugees with money the African camp sitters could only wish for.

  6. [zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:46 am | PERMALINK
    @Rummel/4047

    If it’s about Choice, then why is Abbott Taking everything away?]

    like what?

  7. [like what?]

    NBN, tax-free threshold, school kids bonus, carbon pricing, tobacco legislation, rights at work, 20,000 public service jobs, Gonski reforms, NDIS for starters.

  8. Bushfire Bill

    Didn’t I see something in Media Watch that said News Ltd wouldn’t use online polls for headlines any more? Or was that just Fairfax?

  9. People smuggling is a difficult problem, but nothing that a grown up country can’t deal with. We live in a country that people are busting a gut to get into – not a bad problem to have. But many otherwise good people have a blind spot on immigration and multiculturalism and think that ‘stopping the boats’ will address their concerns. But it won’t stop corporations from exporting jobs to low wage countries, it won’t stop the progress of globalisation, it won’t bring us back to some ‘Golden Age’ as some imagined we had under Howard (or Menzies).

    Questions for the voters of Western Sydney:
    – would you be better off without Medicare (Fraser abolished Medibank in his third term).
    – Would you be better off under a rebadged Workchoices?
    – Would you be better off if eductation – school and tertiary – were further privatised? I never heard John Howard promising to double the cost of Tertiary education.
    – Would you be better off if health care was further privatised? Do you trust insurers to always do the right thing by you?
    – If you are an employee or small business person, do your interests align with multinational corporations? The big banks? News Corporation?

    There are lots of other questions, for example, why does the Opposition plan to spend 10 billion dollars on a ‘Direct Inaction Plan’ to address a problem most of them don’t believe exists? We could point out how much of their annual tax dollars go to middle class welfare such as the Health Find rebate or (if they believe Abbott) his paid parental leave scheme and ask them if they’re OK with that. Also, do they realise that Abbott apparently thinks it’s a good idea to use ‘457’ visas to undercut wages and conditions?

    Judging by the tripe we see in election campaigns from both sides, the major parties seem to believe that a large tranche of voters vote after tallying up promises and voting for whoever offers the best deal in terms of their financial interest. Maybe the ALP should remind voters to think that way to think a bit more deeply about where their interests might lie.

  10. [Didn’t I see something in Media Watch that said News Ltd wouldn’t use online polls for headlines any more? Or was that just Fairfax?]

    They use anything they can.

    Later in the article was this:

    [Galaxy Research’s David Briggs said while the survey was not scientific, it was a glimpse of the mood of voters.

    “You have got to be cautious in interpreting these results.]

    Fair enough so far: on-line polls aren’t worth shit.

    Then…

    [ Quite clearly it doesn’t appear at this stage as if the week-long campaign in western Sydney will do Julia Gillard much good because it is widely considered by your readers as merely a political stunt,” he said.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydneys-west-rates-julia-gillards-efforts-terrible-rooty-hill-visit-is-just-a-stunt/story-e6freuy9-1226588785559#sthash.gdqu87rL.dpuf ]

    Complete wankers.

  11. @Rummel/4057

    Let’s see,

    – Electricity prices will go up – again (same as Newman in QLD).
    – NBN gone – replaced with crappy Telstra 2.0.
    – Gonski will never happen.
    -Carbon Pricing (which added nearly $300 billion to the ASX Market).
    – People on Centerlink will be hurt as Workchoices 2.0 comes in.
    – Interest rates will go up within 12 months.
    – Further “smaller” governments mean less people to help the millions of people.
    – Further getting rid of the current staffing at Centerlink and other departments.

  12. NBN, tax-free threshold, school kids bonus, carbon pricing, tobacco legislation, rights at work, 20,000 public service jobs, Gonski reforms, NDIS for starters.

    NBN – agree, but were getting a cheaper one faster. Gold plating is bad.
    Tax-free threshold – good get rid of it
    Kids bonus – good get rid of it
    Carbon tax – good get rid of it as it does nothing and you pay nothing anyway
    Tobacco – dont really mind either way
    Rights at work – We do need IR reform.
    Gonski – there is nothing to take away
    NDIS – there is nothing to take away

  13. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 12:55 am | PERMALINK
    Right. That was a hundred years ago.

    I suppose it’s Gillard’s fault, eh?]

    Im happy he is not getting it.

  14. Yep, the Daily Tele blames Gillard for Simpson:

    [Simpson and his donkey carried wounded soldiers to the beach at Gallipoli and are immortalised with a statue at the Australian War Memorial, but the tribunal found no new evidence that he was any braver than other stretcher bearers who served and died at Gallipoli.

    The Gillard Government spent hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars conducting an inquiry that was, according to the report of the tribunal’s own conclusions, essentially over before it began.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/fog-of-war-blamed-for-vc-denials/story-fncvk70o-1226588709974#index ]

    Don’t worry about Lyons, Scullin, Curtin, Chifley, Menzies, Holt, McMahon, Gorton, Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Keating or (perish the thought), old Blood and Guts himself, Howard… no it’s all Julia Gillard’s doing that Simpson didn’t get a gong for what he did almost a hundred years ago.

  15. rummel

    You seem to be under the impression that selling all yours and your family’s possessions and coming up with $10-20,000AUD makes you a member of the bourgeoisie and thus unable to legitimately claim asylum. I disagree.

    I would say that selling everything you own and paying whatever the result is to get on a death trap you know is quite likely to kill you in a horrific way in order to get to Australia is pretty solid evidence you’re desperate and likely extremely poor in anyone’s language.

    The fact there are poorer people in African camps I am aware of, but we still have our fair share of work to do in our region as well. This involves processing boat people.

  16. [Carbon tax – good get rid of it as it does nothing and you pay nothing anyway]
    ???

    If you repeal the carbon tax that means you need to find about $7 billion worth of revenue from other sources, OR increase other taxes to make up that $7 billion deficit.

    What are you proposing the government should do?

    Basically for ever $1 raised by the sale of carbon permits, $0.40 is being used to ‘fund’ the increase to the tax free threshold.

    If you don’t have the carbon permit revenue, then you’ll most likely have to increase income taxes for about 80% of the labour force.

  17. [zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 1:06 am | PERMALINK
    @Rummel/4066

    The one Coalition selling you is not not even the equavalant to UK model of rollout.

    You’ve been lied too.]

    I do not doubt that. I would much prefer the Labor NBN but that is not going to happen in 196 days.

  18. @Rummel/4073

    Coalition BB plan isn’t going to happen at all within their first term.

    2 years will be spent renegotiation, legislation, regulation, ACCC, and so forth.

  19. rummel

    “I do not doubt that. I would much prefer the Labor NBN but that is not going to happen in 196 days.”

    So vote Labor and let them finish the job?

  20. It is a perennial problem of Labor governments. In the five years of this Labor government, federal spending has gone up 35 per cent to $365 billion. In the same period, population went up 8 per cent and the consumer price index went up 14 per cent.
    Labor could have and should have got back into surplus. All it had to do was stop increasing spending – no cuts necessary.

    Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/public-service-insulates-against-slash-and-burn-20130301-2fc71.html#ixzz2MIVHwkxj

  21. Not to mention the $10b the Abbott govt will have to pay back to Telstra for the copper.

    Does anybody really take their broadband plan seriously? Other than the deluded?

  22. Rummel has never heard of the GFC I take it.
    Somebody break it down for him, in simple steps..

    And ay, the new Bowie album is very good.

    As the diceman would say William, “Your face your ass, what’s the difference?”

    Barry Gibb rocks by the way. Great concert, dentures notwithstanding.

  23. [Henry
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 1:20 am | PERMALINK
    Rummel has never heard of the GFC I take it.]

    No, we have not heard much of how Kev saved us since Kev left.

  24. [Henry
    Posted Saturday, March 2, 2013 at 1:36 am | PERMALINK
    And Turnbull is the preferred leader of the coalition Rumell.
    See how this works?]

    I do!

    The current rank for PM are as follows;

    Turnbull
    Kevin
    Abbott
    Gillard

    Stick with Gillard and Libs win.

  25. Rummel
    Vote Liberal and you will be sorry. You will either lose, because they ALP will win. Or Abbott will win, and then you will lose big-time.

    Not that I care how it ends up with you. I wouldn’t waste my time and energy trying to change your vote. I never stand between a fool and his destiny.

  26. I am cheered by the general improvement in mood here.

    Pell is in to $23 on Sportsbet:

    http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/current-affairs/pope-betting?LeftNav

    The cardinals would make life a lot more fun if they announce who finishes second third and fourth in the pope choosing so we can have quinella, exacta, trifecta and first four bets. Much more interesting and better dividends if you can nail them.

    I’d also like to see a long term ‘double’ on the winner this time with the winner next time, but maybe that is asking too much.

  27. Newspoll 26-28 October 2012 50 50
    Newspoll 9-11 November 2012 51 49
    Newspoll 23-25 November 2012 51 49
    Newspoll 7-9 December 2012 54 46
    Newspoll 11-13 January 2013 51 49

    Just a gentle reminder folks 🙂

  28. Interesting show on Insiders, with some interesting observations that we have all seen before but still a nice reminder. It is actually more common for incumbent parties to be this far behind in both TPP and PPM ratings 6 months out from an election than to be better off.

    Whilst there does seem to be a bedrock trend with polls, not unlike the 1996 Keating polls prior, it is nevertheless interesting to see just how many elections were re-captured by governments this far behind. It is not outside the realms of possibility.

    One can’t help but think that the ALP in more recent times may well be its own worst enemy in re-election. Kevin Rudd’s rise and consequent demise in the polls is the most extreme we have seen since Newspoll’s inception.

    Indeed, the history of the ALP capturing a second term is not brilliant. I preface this by saying that history is no necessary indicator of future success in elections. However, we find this:

    ALP: Second (and/or subsequent) successful re-elections since 1901: 8
    ALP: Unsuccessful re-elections from a position of being in government: 6
    Non ALP (discounting protectionist elections which would boost this figure) Success: 22
    Non ALP failure to be re-elected: 6

    So, when in government, the ALP tends to manage second and/or subsequent elections 57% of the time.

    Non ALP governments have managed second and/or subsequent re-elections 79% of the time.

    I am not speculating about the reasons for this, which are likely to be many and, most likely, inconsistent. Though the historical precedent for an ALP government to survive three times in Australia is not huge.

    On the upside, coming from behind in polls is a more usual route for re-election with an incumbent government and could be this time as well. Who knows?

  29. So apparently Fairfax’s focus group testing showed that SMH/Age readers weren’t fussed about the format as long as the content doesn’t change. I find it hard to believe there was a chorus of “more articles about Rudd please!”

  30. Re Governments being way behind in the polls – I think this election year is more like 1995/96 than other years mentioned.

    In 2001, John Howard was suffering badly from glitches in the implementation of the GST, which he pulled out all stops to address. In a political sense, he was successful and was regaining ground by July 2001. Then along came the Tampa and 9/11.

    John Hewson was sunk by ‘Fightback!’ However, I don’t think Abbott is going to fall into that trap (or indeed produce any credible policy)

    Maybe 2004 has lessons – the more voters saw of Mark Latham, the less they liked him. Abbott may be vulnerable, although the media will forgive or downplay any mistakes he makes this year. Julia Gillard should stay above the fray but we should have a negative campaign against Abbott – what he’s done, what he might do and get people to think – do they really want this man as PM? At the same time heavily push he positives – the NBN, NDIS, Gonski, the performance of the economy. And be ready to challenge Opposition nonsense – e.g. Carbon Pricing – how would reducing power bills by $10 a week (and removing compensation) bring about Nirvana?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *