Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings show a substantial weakening in Julia Gillard’s position, while the two-party preferred result ticks over a point in the Coalition’s favour.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition ticking over from 54-46 to 55-45, as it must have come close to doing last time, with the major parties’ primary votes unchanged at 34% for Labor and 48% for the Coalition and the Greens down a point to 9%. The monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard taking a solid hit over the past month, her approval down five points to 36% and disapproval up six to 55%, while Tony Abbott is up three to 36% and down four to 53%. The handy lead she opened up over late last year as preferred prime minister has all but disappeared, down from 42-33 to 39-37. The poll also finds 63% support for fixed terms against 23% for the current system. Also gauged were most important election issues and party best equipped to handle them, showing no great change since the question was last posed in November.

UPDATE (12/2/2013): Now Labor cops a shocker from the normally friendly Morgan face-to-face series, which on last weekend’s result has Labor down five to 33.5%, the Coalition up 2.5% to 45% and the Greens up half a point to 9%. That translates to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,171 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  2. Matty D
    The other reason for you to be truly concerned about the polls is the Coalition habit of taking us to wars all the time. They never promise us a war during an election period but they bloody do it all the time.

  3. Macca makes a strategic error even before he takes the oath or affirmation:

    [KevinWilde‏@KevinWilde

    Ian Macdonald has arrived, “don’t worry I have a lot to say”. #icac]

    Prevents sudden adoption of stonewall approach.

  4. Matty I think it would be more correct to say you have analysed the polls and it is unlikely Labor can win but this far out you can’t really say Labor wont win. There are just too many things, the unknown unknowns, that could change the position between now and September.

    I don’t think we have had a parliament like the current one in my lifetime which means historical analysis of polling, if it can ever be a certain guide, is not likely to hold given current circumstances.

  5. [Gecko
    Pyne needs a new suit, that one looks wrinkled when he stands up.

    Is he nude?]

    Thanks, Gecko. I wonder how many therapy sessions it will take to get that out of my head? I think I sill spend the money on a single malt.

  7. rossmcg

    [That hasn’t been working too well.]

    They’re still winging it by a bit.

    But eight months is a long time.

    Gratton, Mega, Taylor all bailed is telling me that the Press are waking up to the fact that their jobs are mostly gone anyway and a graceful exit may be a good idea.

    I’m expecting some serious ‘stick’ aimed at the Coalition in 2-3 months time.

  8. Yes even after the dole gaffe. I’m no fan of Macklin and would have been happy to see her follow Beazley out of Parliament when they were rolled in 2006, but she would need to eat a small child or similar before she could be lumped in with dross like Bishop of Mirabella.

    Why?

  12. Matty I think it would be more correct to say you have analysed the polls and it is unlikely Labor can win but this far out you can’t really say Labor wont win. There are just too many things, the unknown unknowns, that could change the position between now and September.

    I don’t think we have had a parliament like the current one in my lifetime which means historical analysis of polling, if it can ever be a certain guide, is not likely to hold given current circumstances.

    David, you clearly want Labor to win, but you’re not being objective.

    No one has cared to take up my actual question, citing the state breakdown, specifically Labor getting thumped in NSW and Tas.

  14. Emmo you beauty, laughing at Bish the Yunger.

    Oh, that is not a scarf on the Speaker but the collar of a fabulous jacket. well done Speaker.

    What is that on Bish the Yunger’s chest?

  25. [They are certain to lose heaps of seats in NSW, and at least 3/5 (let’s just put Wilkie in the Labor column, as he sides with them more often than not) in Tas, and a couple in Vic and SA. I would also include Lingiari in there as well.]

    On current polling, yes, you are possibly right. NSW will be very difficult.

    But as I said, a long way to go. I don’t write the ALP off just yet. If the situation is the same on the Wednesday before polling day, you will be probably be correct.

    Until then, I will keep doing what I am doing to assist the Government’s re-election.

  26. from lefty on the old thread
    OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement?

    I’d read it as a superficial reaction to the media hysteria of the last ten days. There has been an overdrive of allegedly bad news or calls from the PM – Peris, the long date for the election (and coinciding with Yom Kippur) the ministerial resignations) and the stage-managed arrest of Thomson. All are essentially fluff and will fade.

    The PM has never been more on top of her game and that will show up in time.

  27. Matty D

    When it comes to worrying about the state of the polls you should really factor in a risk margin for the Coalition. They have taken us into 7 or 8 wars for a total of 56 years worth of warfightin whereas Labor has taken us into only 1 war for one year’s worth of war.

    Mind you, Abbott will definitely not promise to take us to war or put a war contingency into his budget costings so can you trust him?

  31. When you look at the who is better stuff in essential it should tell people that the election is wide open.

    A low of 20% to a high of 39% of people don’t know. Many more will have made up their mind by polling day.

  33. matty d

    If it comes to it and there is no poll changes expect Labor to return to stunts. This will mean Craig Emerson MP singing Whyalla Wipeout again.

  36. [@latikambourke: Great shot! RT @ellinghausen: Manager of Oppn Business Christopher Pyne in discussion with Peta Credlin during #qt.]

    The photo shows Ms Credlin sitting in an MP’s seat. I thought there was some rule about non-MP’s in the chamber, such as they could pass on messages or provide official advice, but not sit where she is. She is not an elected MP, rather a “faceless (wo)man” who seems to tell all Opposition MP’s what to do.

    Does the ALP have an equivalent person who is this intrusive?

  37. Clark Kent is not going to bother changing into his outerwear undies to demolish the Opposition.

    Minister For Climate Change and Energy Efficiency gets the Tie of The Day award. That one is sensational. It says confidence and smeg you if you don’t like it.

  38. Matty I have no doubts about how Labor will go in NSW unless something radical changes. Not sure what that radical thing could be but just don’t rule it out this far from an election.

  39. citizen

    [Gerry Harvey might have a tinge of regret]

    Gerry’s the instrument of his own demise.

    His wife, who actually runs the business, must be in despair.

    Gerry should stay permanently at the races with Singo.

  45. RoL

    You’re stoked?

    Then, I’m pleased for you.

    You should go to the races with Gerry to celebrate – here’s $50 for you to lose.

  47. So now we know QT not going to affect polls.
    BTW I suspect some low figures in polls are due to hiatus between announcement and results of ACC doping and cheating investigation.

    People want Results NOW!

  48. Lynchpin – if you agree that Labor will lose a slew of seats in NSW (and you didn’t address Tas, btw) then where do you think they can win any? Don’t forget Lyne and New England, too, they’re effectively Labor seats.

    And how will YOU help Labor?

    david – the Thomson and Obeid affairs will continue all year, so nothing will change.

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