The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition ticking over from 54-46 to 55-45, as it must have come close to doing last time, with the major parties’ primary votes unchanged at 34% for Labor and 48% for the Coalition and the Greens down a point to 9%. The monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard taking a solid hit over the past month, her approval down five points to 36% and disapproval up six to 55%, while Tony Abbott is up three to 36% and down four to 53%. The handy lead she opened up over late last year as preferred prime minister has all but disappeared, down from 42-33 to 39-37. The poll also finds 63% support for fixed terms against 23% for the current system. Also gauged were most important election issues and party best equipped to handle them, showing no great change since the question was last posed in November.
UPDATE (12/2/2013): Now Labor cops a shocker from the normally friendly Morgan face-to-face series, which on last weekend’s result has Labor down five to 33.5%, the Coalition up 2.5% to 45% and the Greens up half a point to 9%. That translates to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
6,171 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”
I make no comment. The poll speaks for itself.
am i first
R18+ fail: Qld bans God of War: Ascension: http://bit.ly/14MzlZ3
[OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time.]
Glasses, earlobes and she refuses to run away from pressers. Its obvious isn’t it?
Luckily this critical time is offset by 60 more polls, a budget, future major legislation, 6 more RBA meetings, 7 months of national data, debates and an election campaign.
Essential – ho hum……..
Eagerly awaiting the arrival of the Guardian Australia and hopefully Lenore and Murpharoo can forensically dissect policy from all sides. 🙂
lefty e@1378 in previous thread
[OK, why is JGs approval going backwards at this critical time. Obeid? The election date announcement?]
Because people hear this question as “Who have you heard favourable coverage in the media about lately?”
The weakness of polls this far out from an election IMHO is that they measure meta-opinion rather than opinion. In other words, people respond as to how they see the “vibe” (or opinion about opinion) and that is heavily conditioned by the media.
I wouldn’t count chickens before they hatch.
I’d say the PM’s approval rating has slipped because people don’t view some of the happenings over the past few weeks with the same enthusiasm as most people here. A lot has happened in a short period of time including the Peris appointment, the early election announcement, the retirements, the arrest of Thomson, ICAC and the MRRT collections confirmation. All these have likely feed into sentiment in one way or another.
I know anecdotes do not a poll make, but this poll is not matching what I am hearing here in my safe lib seat.
When Mob-lib turns up, maybe we can get the names of the liberal shadow ministers and policies better than labor’s and an explanation why. I can make it easy with a tick box response.
“I like the LNP because:
– they make unfunded promises and lie about having had them fully costed and audited.
– they repeatedly show themselves to be scientifically and economically illiterate, and I don’t want elitists smart people running the country.
– they love to fan the flames of racism and xenophobia
– their answer to improving productivity is to cut minimum wages and working conditions, and give tax more breaks to the wealthy
– their answer to welfare is to make it really hard for those who need it most, and really easy for those who need it least
– they are always high tax-and-spend governments, but speak beautiful rhetoric on being the low tax and small government party
– they have no vision for the nation other than we turn into a the US – and the tea party’s vision of the US at that.
– they are always prepared to divide the nation for short term political advantage
– they don’t like public education, because most of their daddies were rich enough to send them to elite private schools
– they don’t like public health because they can afford (government subsidised) private health insurance, even though that increases the cost of health services for all.
– they do the bidding of the miners, fossil-fuel lobby,tobacco industry, private insurers who all donate massively the the LNP (nothing corrupt about that)
– they have no policies, so what’s there not to like?
– the media love them, so why shouldn’t I?”
what have I missed?
Now hang on, people. Her approval has gone backwards this week. Since last Monday. All we’ve had since then is a couple of days of Parliament and a crisis in sport.
I don’t think there are easy explanations that cover it. It looks very odd to me. Especially seeing approval ratings going all over the place while PV remains virtually static.
I repeat my suggestion from an earlier thread, in answer to the question “Why does the ALP have a recent record of deficit budgets?”:
Because Australia has never trusted the Liberals in difficult times.
[what have I missed?]
Its interesting to look at the issues. ALP only leads on industrial realtions, with the nominal lead on education too small to matter. They have actually closed the gap a little on managing the economy over the last 12 months, but still way behind.
GRNs well in front on managing environment and climate change: which suggests to me they have no problem at all with their ‘branding’, anothr reason why unlike DEMS theyre most unlikely to disappear over time.
The sentiment I hear a lot is that while people don’t have a lot of faith in Abbott they have less faith in the current government. It has been that way for a long time. I think many people are still undecided regardless of how they vote in the polls.
I don’t think it is beyond recovery for the government but it will be really tough to reverse that sentiment.
The polls are matching the narrative. It is hardly surprising
Fatima Measham @foomeister
I’m still relentlessly optimistic that Abbott will not become PM – he’s been given a lot of rope. But I hope it’s a minority gov if he does.
2m ابراهي Jon Underwood ابراهي Jon Underwood @Prohairetic
@foomeister given enough time. Detest whole ‘Divine Mandate’ thing he clearly believes he has. I’ll probably even vote ALP (vomit) bec that.
1m Fatima Measham Fatima Measham @foomeister
@Prohairetic Oh gawd I’m so on the same page though I’ve so many reasons not to vote Labor.
The last fortnight of polls basically says – we don’t like Abbott at all, but will put up with him because we like Labor less.
[Its interesting to look at the issues. ALP only leads on industrial realtions, with the nominal lead on education too small to matter. They have actually closed the gap a little on managing the economy over the last 12 months, but still way behind.
GRNs well in front on managing environment and climate change: which suggests to me they have no problem at all with their ‘branding’, anothr reason why unlike DEMS theyre most unlikely to disappear over time.]
A perfect example of the lack of public engagement at this time.
Where’s this Obama strategy they were talking about?
Go after Abbott. Hard. Now. With TV spots and web media buys.
I don’t think the polls are convincing enough for me either way.
People like my parents do not like Abbott in QLD.
YES! RT @lyndalcurtis: The HOR inquiry into IT pricing has summonsed Apple, Microsoft and Adobe to appear before it on the 22nd of March.
Well, it sall shows the sell needed:
– Averted GFC through policies the LNP opposed (and note here austerity and cuts LEAD TO MORE DEBT, looking at you Newman http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2013/02/uk-shows-how-austerity-policies-lead-to-more-borrowing-and-debt.html
– low unemployment
– low interest rates
– Abbott = workchoices
Then add: CO2 price leading to cheaper electricity
NBN to save regional australi’s bacon.
If you like these things, vote for them. Forget personalities.
sustainable future I think the predominant reason/policy folks are preferring the Coalition over Labor is because the Coalition isn’t Labor. It can’t be because of policy comparisons because we know so little about Coalition policies.
The Labor Campaign hasn’t really started yet, I’d wager mid-year.
@bengrubb: The ATO uses Java. Apple blocked Java. Now there are problems with Mac users that need to manually update http://t.co/y3tjhcHG
ATO needs to move to HTLM5. Apple does not use Java because of security reasons
“@markjs1: Has Abbott got a problem with women? …Well, he’s sure got a problem with Leigh Sales & Lisa Wilkinson …he’s terrified of them!! #auspol”
[Where’s this Obama strategy they were talking about?
Go after Abbott. Hard. Now. With TV spots and web media buys.
Keep ya powder dry my friend… its a long game… nothing much will change until the Budget and Gonski legislation on the 1st of July… that’s the kick-off date as far as I can tell.
zoidlord – I was more referring to the strategy Obama used. Go hard after opponent, early, to set the narrative
[The Labor Campaign hasn’t really started yet, I’d wager mid-year.]
Yes, but cows and market day.
Economic messaging a priority. You cant beat low unemploment and low interest rates for good news.
Say it ” we have low unemployment, and low interest rates”. It will help.
I await the state breakdowns with interest. I suspect the ALP vote has collapsed in NSW.
Toorak Toff – There is 3 certainties in life death, taxes and Gillard’s execution on September the 14th. This Labor/Greens/Windsor/Dopeshott opps sorry Oakeshott freak show must come to an end it’s killing this great nation.
zoidlord I know and work with a lot of people who are Coalition supporters, most much more so that I am, and very few of them like Abbott. In fact I find it impossible to identify a single person who thinks Abbott is our best choice for PM. I am pretty sure most will still vote for the Coalition regardless.
Someone else holds the record
No that’s not the saying, and stop posting complete nonsense and ripping off the original saying.
[I don’t think it is beyond recovery for the government but it will be really tough to reverse that sentiment.]
I agree with you!
G’day Matty D.
[I suspect the ALP vote has collapsed in NSW.]
I bet you are right no pun intended.
Essential don’t do state break-ups do they? We really need that Nielsen.
[Toorak Toff – There is 3 certainties in life death, taxes and Gillard’s execution on September the 14th. This Labor/Greens/Windsor/Dopeshott opps sorry Oakeshott freak show must come to an end it’s killing this great nation.]
“Er….it’s the vibe, your honour”
This is Joe Hockey style. Whats your actual point? You have identified no issues.
Is it the low unemployment, or the low interest rates that are really shitting you? Or perhaps the NBN, which every regional coaltion backbhencher cant wait to get in their electorate?
Or is it the CO2 price, which led to absolutely NONE of the consequences foreshadowed by Abbott, and reduced emission 8.6% over the last six months? Or is the paid maternity leave?
Be hilarious if Abbott lost after all this hype.
zoidlord, make no apologies in stating the bleedin’ obvious.
Romney was in the game for about three weeks of a 12 month campaign.
Abbott has led for more than 12 months.
to be expected. i would rather the bad polls now, and pick up as we go than the reverse.
‘Sentiment’ for polls. ‘Votes’ for elections. There is a difference and I’ll wager they are polls apart. 😉
@zackster: A highly digestible account of the circumstances in which the PM’s accuser Nick Styant-Browne left Slater & Gordon: http://t.co/G7fDF6VD
I think it is very sad that we congratulate journos for writing objective, fact based, fair & balanced articles
‘Sentiment’ for polls. ‘Votes’ for elections. There is a difference and I’ll wager they are polls apart]
Certainly but how much sentiment goes into our voting decisions gecko?