The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition ticking over from 54-46 to 55-45, as it must have come close to doing last time, with the major parties’ primary votes unchanged at 34% for Labor and 48% for the Coalition and the Greens down a point to 9%. The monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard taking a solid hit over the past month, her approval down five points to 36% and disapproval up six to 55%, while Tony Abbott is up three to 36% and down four to 53%. The handy lead she opened up over late last year as preferred prime minister has all but disappeared, down from 42-33 to 39-37. The poll also finds 63% support for fixed terms against 23% for the current system. Also gauged were most important election issues and party best equipped to handle them, showing no great change since the question was last posed in November.
UPDATE (12/2/2013): Now Labor cops a shocker from the normally friendly Morgan face-to-face series, which on last weekend’s result has Labor down five to 33.5%, the Coalition up 2.5% to 45% and the Greens up half a point to 9%. That translates to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
6,171 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”
Some people I know might be offended when PvO is described as a journalist. To the best of my knowledge he is an academic who got a gig as a commentator I doubt he is a member of the journalists’ union or has signed up to their code of ethics, which for all its faults is at least a starting point.
[Your point about newspaper freebies is well made. One analysis i saw suggested that up to 25 percent of The Oz figure might be giveaways.]
That newspaper seems to be distributed all across Australia. It appears in supermarkets, service stations, airports, coffee shops and public libraries, as well as newsagents. The cost of distributing a few copies to all these locations on a daily basis must be phenomenal. Not to mention that at the end of the day considerable numbers of copies remain unsold.
The main aim seems to be to have the front page headlines on display and noticed by people queuing at the checkout or read in coffee shops and libraries. For Murdoch, the dollars and cents are unimportant if it allows him to influence public opinion.
The thing that amuses me about PvO is that he often makes little throw away remarks that show he knows nothing about the way the Labor party works, but thinks he’s an expert in the area.
I assume that he thinks what happens in WA applies to all the states – but surely anyone who studies politics with any kind of seriousness is aware that each state branch has its own rules.
It makes it very hard for me to take him seriously.
I am always suspicious when a company says they will compensate for environmental damage. There are so many ways of getting around this promise.
[The government said the mine could damage eight ”upland swamps”, which contain rare plant and animal species, in the catchment area next to the Lake Avon reservoir. It approved the mine on condition the company could provide a compensation package, including protection of nearby swamp habitat and investment in more research.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/mine-approved-despite-water-catchment-fears-20130215-2eifw.html#ixzz2L2DnnzWy
I must be a delicate salad. I cannot stand the radio news follies or the t-v/cable smart-assery or, most times, the newspapers, which are usually misprints or plain defamation. I want peace and solace and have been driven into the concert halls and music studios – into orchestral protection – back to the eighteenth century and the transcendent. 🙂
mexicanbeemer, I understand the point you are making but i disagree…..
It was correct to seek to bring the Budget into surplus as soon as responsibly possible and when future developments such as taxation payments not reaching the best available projections, it was then correct not to push for a surplus at any costs.
Both your position and my contrary position are opinions, however Polling also supports Swans decisions.
In fact the decision not to push for an immediate balanced budget is more popular than tony abbott –
Essential poll of 29 October showed that 37% of the population supported the return to budget surplus while 43% were opposed to a budget surplus or in other words, supported a deficit.
Essential poll of 10 December, approval for Mr Abbott as Leader of the Opposition was 33%, while disapproval was 56%.
A budget deficit was 10 percentage points more popular than Mr Abbott .
Lastest Essential Poll last week – Mr Abbott remains more unpopular than a Budget surplus with an approval of 36%, while disapproval was 53%.
Re Xenephon in Malaysia
The Fairfax media today reports the Malaysian regime anxienty about the coming election
Last time the opposition led by Anwar made big gains and this timne the regime is under real threat at the polls..and will be on the lookout for all their opponents
Xenephon will be an embarrasement to them
Good work Bick !
‘ But a soldier dies in a traffic accident and it is news.
Gimme a break.
Kinda different BW. The soldier was on transfer and therefore representing his country overseas. A news report is the least we can do and I suspect all serving ‘representatives’ of our nation, no matter how trivial the circumstance may appear, would be accorded the same courtesy and respect. RIP.’
I am sick of soldiers hogging the limelight. I am sick of the militarism that pervades our society. I am sick of the stupid bloody wars we have been in for far too long. I don’t care if a private ‘represents’ his country. They are just not that important.
Anything in a uniform – a copper, a firey…
Let’s start considering newsworthy the death of the person up the road who has spent every monday for the past upteen years getting up before sunrise, loading her vehicle, scrounging the food, getting the cooking stuff together, and then feeding breakfast to the homeless. All weathers. No whinging. No uniform, of course. No official ‘representing’ the country. But, IMHO, representing all that is truly good and great in the country.
IMHO, that sort of person, and thousands just like her, are far far, far more important than a uniform on a job swap in New Zealand.
Very well said boerwar @ 6160.
In Washington the Republicans have used a procedural motion to block the nomination of Hagel as Sec of Def..
In a 58-40 vote they engaged in a kind of filibuster…and for the first time in the history of the US Senate …used
this proceedure to reguire a 60 vote margin for s closure
So the debate goes on
The Senate has adjourned and despite the fact that the Senate Commitee voted for Hagel’s nomination to go through…for the first time in over 200 years this closure procedure had been used to block the Presidential nominee from Senate endorsement till now
There seems no limit to the power of the Zionists in the Repub Party …notably when one thinks that Hagel was a Rep Senator and twice decorated war hero in Vietnam
None of this matters to the Jewish Lobby..who never forgive or forget…least of all Hagel whose recent stetement that the Jewish Lobby” threaten and indimidate people in Congress”
One can imagine Obama’s feeling too re his candidate’s ordeal.
Not a good way for Netanyuhu and his bully boys to dominate US policies as they have done in the past
The Senate will meet again in two weeks to reconsider his nomination…but the Lobby will still be on the offensive and will try to stop Hagel
No wonder Israel and it’s friends are under fire everywhere, and I suspect they have few friends in the White House these days
[Let’s start considering newsworthy the death of the person up the road who has spent every monday for the past upteen years getting up before sunrise, loading her vehicle, scrounging the food, getting the cooking stuff together, and then feeding breakfast to the homeless. All weathers. No whinging. No uniform, of course. No official ‘representing’ the country. But, IMHO, representing all that is truly good and great in the country.]
I couldn’t agree more… and well put.
[IMHO, that sort of person, and thousands just like her, are far far, far more important than a uniform on a job swap in New Zealand.]
I couldn’t DISagree more with this.
Guess we’ll have to agree AND disagree at the same time. 😉
Rumour has it that Swan’s days as Treasurer are numbered, and I don’t mean 209.
hmmm will sen x be accused of buggery and kept on ice for a decade?
largish rumour to get to Darwin…more like a broadcast…who could do that?
kevin on the pedal radio?
so….troll starvation time?
Where do these trolls come from ?(don’t say from under a bridge)
The worst by far ios “Iqarslow “who comes out late at night (chucked out of the Bar at Menzies House perhaps…and silly and venomous and smart-arsed)
Re Vatican Bank
A Us writer suggests that the Pope’s resignation may spring from .. among other things ….his weariness with the corrupt Vatican Bank,who have thwarted all his efforts to reform it’s workings…and even to allow a clear view of what goes on inside it
Infallibility doesn’t extend to finance it seems ( a matter the Pope might have in common with Wayne Swan)
Wow if that is true about Buswell wanting more bums on seats I really hope he keeps his NOSE out of it