Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings show a substantial weakening in Julia Gillard’s position, while the two-party preferred result ticks over a point in the Coalition’s favour.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition ticking over from 54-46 to 55-45, as it must have come close to doing last time, with the major parties’ primary votes unchanged at 34% for Labor and 48% for the Coalition and the Greens down a point to 9%. The monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard taking a solid hit over the past month, her approval down five points to 36% and disapproval up six to 55%, while Tony Abbott is up three to 36% and down four to 53%. The handy lead she opened up over late last year as preferred prime minister has all but disappeared, down from 42-33 to 39-37. The poll also finds 63% support for fixed terms against 23% for the current system. Also gauged were most important election issues and party best equipped to handle them, showing no great change since the question was last posed in November.

UPDATE (12/2/2013): Now Labor cops a shocker from the normally friendly Morgan face-to-face series, which on last weekend’s result has Labor down five to 33.5%, the Coalition up 2.5% to 45% and the Greens up half a point to 9%. That translates to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,171 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  2. I think I’m wrong about the theme. It lasted two questions, and now they’re just running variations on the mining tax revenue.

  4. Matty D,

    All the polls are saying at the moment is that they haven’t changed significantly. And they won’t until people are foced from their political coma.

  6. matty D

    FYI Voters pay attention at election campaign time.

    This is known as the Narrowing. Howard suffered bad polls but still won elections.

  9. [ 1. My point is that many of you are actually ignoring the polls.

    2. The polls have been like this since early 2011. What’s going to suddenly change now? ]

    1. We don’t ignore credible polls, but as others have pointed out, Essential has credibility problems.

    2. At some point, Abbott will have to start enunciating some policies – and the effort will make his head explode.

  10. @TheKouk: I understand govt raised zero revenue last Saturday & Sunday. Unemployment must be 100%, company profits zero, spending zero #stupidity #qt

  18. Howard may have had some bad polls, but he was never below 34, IIRC, and certainly never below 30. In fact, this government has been the only ever government (be it Labor or Coalition) to go below 30, and down to 26 twice.

    The polls have been like this for almost 2 years straight now, expect a brief period last year, when Labor narrowed the gap considerably. It must suck for them and their supporters, all that narrowing has now dissipated completely.

  20. [Does that Macklin have an annoying voice or what??]

    First (and probably last) sensible thing you’ve said here.

    And yet she stands head and shoulders over the options opposite such as the Members for Indi and Mackellar.

  22. [Back to the poll, why are so many of you living in denial, and won’t admit that Labor is headed for a landslide loss?]

    Yes, I would agree if the poll were decided on the opinion polls today. Which they are not. There is a long way to go. I am personally not in denial. For that very reason, I am doing all I can to have the Government re-elected.

  23. “@bengrubb: FOI Friday has become FOI Monday. NSW Police ask for your DOB and residential address. I asked why. They don’t give a valid reason.”

  26. The Coalition did very poorly in SA, Vic and Tas last election. Expect them to win a lot of seats there this election. Despite being right-wing and a CLP supporter to the bootstraps, I have gone through polling very objectively, and there’s just no way that Labor can win, especially when they don’t even have the advantage of incumbency.

  28. Lynchpin

    [I keep coming back to my central thesis]

    Publish it far and wide.

    Although it’ll be hard against the Press who just want a ‘Government Crashes’ story for no reason other to sell papers and big note themselves.

  31. Someone else does baby blue ties, with a small white check. The Member for Cook waves about coloured cards to show he is scared of brown people in boats. He really seems to have a colour problem. Blue and white checks just don’t cut it.

  33. [I have gone through polling very objectively, and there’s just no way that Labor can win,]

    I suggest you go back and have a look at the polls in Feb. 2001 and Feb 2004.

  35. And yet she stands head and shoulders over the options opposite such as the Members for Indi and Mackellar.

    After the dole gaff?

  37. Nice big red beads.

    I love your suit Mr Midnight Oil but the tie is the wrong collar for your look. It is the same colour as your head.

  38. Lynchpin

    [I suggest you go back and have a look at the polls in Feb. 2001 and Feb 2004.]

    I think here, like Latika, the ‘google’ skills and memory might be lacking.

    But keep trying.

  39. Morrison doing props. They really don’t think QT is the main game, obviously. Just another platform for them to grandstand.

    I haven’t seen a lot of evidence that they think Parliament itself is the main game, actually. For a party that close to a majority on the floor, all the time, they don’t attach themselves to legislative questions unless there’s some political point-scoring in it. Which begs the question – where do they think the real action is? It’s not interviews, as Abbott won’t even do those. It’s not debate outside Parliament, as they won’t engage.

    I guess they really do think it’s all in the stage-managed pressers and the release of polls.

  41. Although it’ll be hard against the Press who just want a ‘Government Crashes’ story for no reason other to sell papers

    That hasn’t been working too well. The govt is still there and newspaper sales are still heading south

  42. I suggest you go back and have a look at the polls in Feb. 2001 and Feb 2004.

    Why? The government had the advantage of incumbency then. Labor has to win seats this election. They are certain to lose heaps of seats in NSW, and at least 3/5 (let’s just put Wilkie in the Labor column, as he sides with them more often than not) in Tas, and a couple in Vic and SA. I would also include Lingiari in there as well.

    So where will they make up the difference, or do you dispute these figures?

    I am not trying to be rude or anything, it’s a legit question.

  45. Nah this poll is clearly a troll

    -Because don’t we know that we have the most popular PM in history
    -Voters love all the policies
    -The economy is booming
    -Wages and profits are booming
    -Business has ever been busier

    Anyone who believes this poll is clearly a Bolt or Piers fanboy

  47. Yes even after the dole gaffe. I’m no fan of Macklin and would have been happy to see her follow Beazley out of Parliament when they were rolled in 2006, but she would need to eat a small child or similar before she could be lumped in with dross like Bishop of Mirabella.

  48. Gerry Harvey might have a tinge of regret about talking down the economy so much that customers no longer visit his stores. Instead, they go to the competition:

    [JB Hi-Fi Ltd., Australia’s second- largest electrical retailer, surged the most in four years in Sydney trading after forecasting full-year profit higher than analysts’ estimates.

    The stock surged as much as 15 percent, the biggest gain since February 2009, before trading 13 percent higher at A$12.48 as of 11:35 a.m.]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-11/jb-hi-fi-surges-after-profit-forecast-beats-estimates.html

  49. Matty D

    The Government is going to set Gonski in concrete before the election, so, if you relatives in public schools or poor private schools, there is no need for you to worry about the polls.

    What comes after the election, should people remain asleep to the dangers of Abbott, will be a public sector desert in the health and education sectors, a destroyed NBN, the poor getting a hammering, the rich getting a free run, a farmer’s picnic based on rural porkbarrelling, and a spiv’s picnic based on deregulating as much of the finance sector as they can get away with.

    Given the polls, I know that you are concerned about these matters, but there is not much you or I can do about the polls right now.

  50. I really want to fit in here so:

    This poll is great news!
    Julia’s doing gtreat!
    The Labor Party are on a roll!
    The Tories are toast. Toast I tell you.
    Take that Kevin you d*ck!!!

    Just keep doing whatever it is we’re doing right now and we’re a shoe in September!

    I’m stoked!!!!

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