Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

Essential Research’s monthly personal ratings show a substantial weakening in Julia Gillard’s position, while the two-party preferred result ticks over a point in the Coalition’s favour.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the Coalition ticking over from 54-46 to 55-45, as it must have come close to doing last time, with the major parties’ primary votes unchanged at 34% for Labor and 48% for the Coalition and the Greens down a point to 9%. The monthly personal ratings find Julia Gillard taking a solid hit over the past month, her approval down five points to 36% and disapproval up six to 55%, while Tony Abbott is up three to 36% and down four to 53%. The handy lead she opened up over late last year as preferred prime minister has all but disappeared, down from 42-33 to 39-37. The poll also finds 63% support for fixed terms against 23% for the current system. Also gauged were most important election issues and party best equipped to handle them, showing no great change since the question was last posed in November.

UPDATE (12/2/2013): Now Labor cops a shocker from the normally friendly Morgan face-to-face series, which on last weekend’s result has Labor down five to 33.5%, the Coalition up 2.5% to 45% and the Greens up half a point to 9%. That translates to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,171 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Tlbd

    [Someone else holds the record]

    If you can add some Danish fairy tales to the Irish checking and may be some northern Russian folklore we’ll get you in the book.

    No worries.

  2. @Stephen T/44

    I doubt that Benjamin Franklin would accept that apology at all, since you know, Coalition seem to hate facts and science.

  3. PMJG is wearing a three piece open weave ecru or dark cream skirt/camisole/jacket suit. Collarless but with a soft curve small lapel and faux pockets tot the side of the bust it is well fitted smart and very chic.

    There is a prize for people not watching the telecast to guess the colour of the LOTO’s tie. The prize is a free download of the Lib’s aspiration doc. The consolation prize is two free downloads.

  4. The member for North Sydney has a definite shaped cut to his suits now. Very Presidential.

    Swanny has mixed light grey dark grey and salon in a tie that says confidence; neat, striking but still conservative.

    Bishop the Younger must be reading PB, she is in black today. With her colouring of hair and sallow face unfortunately it does not carry really well on TV.

  5. Davidwh

    [Certainly but how much sentiment goes into our voting decisions gecko?]

    Not a lot. Party loyalty is stronger, particularly if there’s a grassroot fight. Those that swing consider the hip pocket… the future for their kids… and the economics. On all these issues the ALP have by far the better story. Australians are conservative by nature and LNP controlled states will also assist a federal ALP counter. It will simply come down to that in my opinion. I’m by no means the oracle … but that’s my logic and always has been.

  6. Opposition riffing on the theme of ‘certainty’ today. last week was ‘trust’.

    They’re asking dumb questions, but all they want to do is create the impression that the ALP are altering policy in the lead-up to the election, whilst the Coalition are settled in what they’re presenting.

  7. Shorten has gone for a Liberal-type tie, shiny blue with tiny white spots.

    There is not as much colour on the gov’t benches today. Are they all in ‘shoulders to the wheel’ mode?

  8. “@LatikaQT: Shorten – I love it when Tony Abbott reminds he’s workers best friend – with friends like these you don’t need enemies. #qt”

  9. The lady with the curly hair two rows back on the gov’t benches has a nice white jacket with green/grey camisole and it catches the camera perfectly.

    As does the hot pink number on the Oppo benches. And no, I am not talking about the poodle.

  10. [Back to the poll, why are so many of you living in denial, and won’t admit that Labor is headed for a landslide loss?]

    Because unlike you we have a brain. Ask mum, she’ll help explain it.

  11. Gecko

    Because unlike you we have a brain. Ask mum, she’ll help explain it.

    A brain that ignores 2 years of landslide polling figures?

  12. The member for Dobell.is doing pin-stripe and blue tie. Albo has a grey suit. white short and a striped tie whose predominate colour is dried blood.

  13. [ Back to the poll, why are so many of you living in denial, and won’t admit that Labor is headed for a landslide loss? ]

    Ummm …. how about because only a fool would predict a “landslide” this far out from the actual election?

  14. The Speaker is sporting a fashionable scarfe.

    I can’t comment much on the oppos today because they are getting very little screen time. In fact for a side ahead in the polls they are as quiet as mice.

  15. 1. My point is that many of you are actually ignoring the polls.

    2. The polls have been like this since early 2011. What’s going to suddenly change now?

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