UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
Braddon/Darwin was held by Labor legend King O’Malley from its creation in 1903 until 1917, and then by conservatives of various stripes until Ron Davies gained it for Labor in 1958. Davies held the seat until 1975, when future Premier Ray Groom’s victory contributed to the first of the Liberals’ clean sweeps. Groom was in turn succeeded upon his move to state politics in 1984 by Chris Miles. The Liberals’ electoral position meanwhile continued to strengthen due to the decline of the area’s key industries and the political upheaval caused by the Franklin Dam controversy.
Braddon’s fortunes changed very suddenly in 1998, when a 10.0% swing made Peter “Sid” Sidebottom the seat’s first Labor member in 23 years. Labor has since been defeated only in 2004, when John Howard’s late-campaign trumping of Mark Latham over forestry jobs fuelled a 7.0% swing that delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Mark Baker. Sidebottom had declined to distance himself from Latham’s policy, unlike Dick Adams in neighbouring Lyons. Endorsed again in 2007, Sidebottom was able to recover the seat with a modest 2.6% swing, before adding a further 5.1% to his margin in 2010. On the former occasion the swing was most strongly concentrated around Smithton, reversing a heavy swing to the Liberals from 2004, while the swing in 2010 was greatest in Devonport and Latrobe.
Sid Sidebottom had been a Central Coast councillor and electorate officer to Senator Nick Sherry before entering parliament, and he returned to the employ of Sherry during the interruption of his parliamentary career from 2004 to 2007. Sidebottom is presently factionally unaligned, but like Sherry was formerly a member of the Centre/Independents faction, known in its Hawke government heyday as the Centre Left. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary after the 2001 election, serving in various permutations of agriculture, resources and fisheries over the ensuing term. It took until November 2011 for him to recover his old status, that month’s reshuffle slotting him into the familiar agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio.
The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Michael Burr, described by the Burnie Advocate as a “high-profile Devonport real estate business owner”. Burr won preselection from a field that also included Glynn Williams, a North Motton farmer and lawyer described in the local press as an “ultra conservative”, and lower-profile local Jacqui Lambie. Burr’s backers reportedly included Senators Richard Colbeck and Stephen Parry, and local state MP Adam Brooks. It was thought that another contender might be Brett Whiteley, who lost his state seat in Braddon at the 2010 election, but he announced in the week before the preselection that he would instead focus on returning to state politics.
More woes for UK PM Cameron.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/aug/06/louise-mensch-resigns-mp
BB
Color is the correct spelling in Australia when referring to television.
Bushfire Bill
I vote for “led them home” .But then I am a science type fighting a losing battle that sulphur is NOT spelt sulfur. Darn US cultural imperialism 🙁
Classic Four Corners Tonight. Complete with the phrase colourful racing identities.
Lead me not into abbotts pastures as surely will be led astray.
Ru
Colour is always colour. It is the yanks that use color
BB,
[That sounds definitive.]
Dunno, BB – that Lizzie lady might be trying to mislead (“misleed”) you. Don’t – please don’t – allow yourself to be
leadled astray ..There is actually no correct spelling as there are no set rules in English about what words to use or how to spell them. As long as the receiver understands them, that’s what matters.
Lots of words have multiple different types of spelling and, no they are not all US English variations, either.
bemused
[ Health of kids and self esteem are the two key reasons to get kids playing sport of some sort.]
It doesn’t help the self-esteem of some poor uncoordinated kid forcing them to get humiliated at sport.
“lead” NEVER refers to the past.
[Does Getup publish its financial accounts and disclose all donations received in both cash and kind?
Seems a bit unlikely for someone to have set up something like Getup as a cover for right wing politics (or subverted an existing organisation) but stranger things have happened.]
lol… I have called Getup the Militant arm of the ALP since 07.
You know Labor is on the wrong ocean when even major supporters are jumping ship, yet Captain Gillard calls for all ahead flank speed.
[citizen
It is really hard to know why the Murdoch media has suddenly decided to run this story
Elementary my dear Watson. He has a long history of claiming one of those stories mingled with the other 99 anti ones as being proof of “balanced” reporting. ]
Exhibit #1: Kevin Rudd was the Australian’s “Australian of the Year” in 2009.
Exhibit #2 (Alastair Campbell again)
[ In papers hostile to the government of the day, such as the Mirror today, or the Mail in most of Labour’s time in power, on The Sun once it had shifted its political position before the last election, it is rare that any story is published which might reflect well on them. Or tactically, they may do the occasional one to pretend they are somehow balanced and objective.]
http://www.maryannmartinek.blogspot.com.au/
bemused
The first encounter of many kids ith homophoia is on the sporting field. Old favourites like you “throw like a girl”. That even qualifies as misogynist as well.
rummel
Suppose derision is always easier than a serious comment.
Schnappi,
[ya can lead a horse to water ,dunno if can led it to drink]
Thank you for the opportunity to tell – yet again – one of my favourite Dorothy Parker stories.
During a word game, Miss Parker was challenged to use the word “horticulture”. She came up with:
[You can lead a horticulture, but you can’t make her think.]
[I vote for “led them home” .But then I am a science type fighting a losing battle that sulphur is NOT spelt sulfur. Darn US cultural imperialism :(]
In my correspondence with US suppliers and customers I have given up spelling the name of the metal aluminium as “aluminium”.
If I don’t spell aluminium as “aluminum” they just don’t get it.
Occasionally I just use the term “alloy”.
Re Get up and media regulation.
Has Get up actually released a statement on this ?
I would be upset if they do oppose some form of regulation but i will withhold any judgement until i see a statement from them and the context of any opposition.
Remember, this is reporting from News ltd.
ajm
[Suppose derision is always easier than a serious comment.]
Really? so your being serious with this comment.
[Seems a bit unlikely for someone to have set up something like Getup as a cover for right wing politics (or subverted an existing organisation) but stranger things have happened.]
Carey
[There is actually no correct spelling as there are no set rules in English about what words to use or how to spell them. ]
I tend to work from the government style manual. If everyone spells however they like, and punctuates how they like, it gets very very hard to understand and can lead to quarrels.
There are some bloggers who make an art of being difficult to understand.
fiona
heavens you used the word “Think” in here gosh some have stopped posting already, (was that because you led them to)
Clever Rommel, but very silly and dishonest, well unless you are just stupid.
Getup is a reaction to the poor incompetent government that was Howard and his cronies. It in fact works, like the greens substantially against labor.
[Has anyone read the whole article in the AFR on Saturday 4th August?]
Here’s most of it:
[Of the many splendid comic moments this year for which we must thank James Ashby and his selfless work to bring down his boss, Peter Slipper, two are standout winners in his text and email records tabled in Federal Court.
The first is on April 11, when he texted that his lawyers had told him he needed 24-hour security “to avoid death”. It’s not clear who was supposed to murder Ashby …
The second moment was on April 12, after Ashby’s $550-an-hour media adviser told him to stop talking to journalist Steve Lewis, who sent a series of unhappy texts, culminating in a plea: “Need to chat or txt mate. I am being hassled abt costs etc.”
After writing 20 major stories in 18 months attacking Slipper’s work expenses (and another seven stories in which Slipper was collateral damage), Lewis was facing some accounting issues.
As News Ltd has been at pains to say, it is completely normal for journalists to talk to sources and lawyers ahead of court actions. And when Lewis texted Ashby “We will get him!!!”, The Australian reports he was referring to “a man called Richard”. Who else would he be talking about?
What’s not so normal is that News paid for Ashby’s two nights at the four-star Sebel Hotel in Surry Hills while he met with his Sydney lawyers to prepare a sexual harassment case that Lewis immediately reported could bring the government down. Call the Prince old-fashioned, but that sounds uncomfortably close to attempted regime change by News.]
Schnappi,
Oh deary me.
I’m sorry, everyone. You can come back – it’s safe – no thinking required.
Bushfire Bill
Despite the global arbiters of all things chemical ,IUPAC, defining it as Aluminium the yanks continue to battle on with aluminum. I guess they think it is some sort of socialist conspiracy 🙂 . I still smile about their Mars probe crashing into Mars because they insisted on using miles rather than kilometers and stuffed up the difference 😆
lizzie:
[Graeme It shouldn’t be “lead” it should be “led”. Drives me bonkers, so many spell it wrong.]
{wrongly 😉 }
English is a funny language. Consider the verb to plead (which contains “lead” and means related but distinctively different things in different context.
Plead goes to pled as the past definite or past participle when describing pleas in court. Yet when it means “begging” the past definite can be pleaded.
eg. I pleaded with him to stop …
rummel
You betcha! Nothing is beyonf people driven by money and power.
Oh, and it’s “you’re” as in a contraction of “you are”, not “your”. Normally don’t complain about misspellings but for you I’ll make an exception.
Sally pearson 9″ 10 – from now
[I tend to work from the government style manual. If everyone spells however they like, and punctuates how they like, it gets very very hard to understand and can lead to quarrels.]
While that maybe true for putting “lead” instead of “led”, it absolutely does not affect the understandability of a message whether you spell colour/color, barbecue/barbeque, gaol/jail etc.
In fact, a lot of the anti-American English rhetoric in Australian culture was forced on us in the 1950s in an attempt to make the country more anglophilic (cold war identity politics) – prior to that, small distinctions like minor spelling weren’t a problem here.
Good lingual communication lies in syntax. Good written communication also depends on correct punctuation. Spelling is the least important factor.
beyonf = beyond
Appropriate in terms of the lead[led discussion.
In today’s SMH Cryptic Crossword clue 4 down was
English city is winning, we hear (5).
William
Thanks. Appreciate it. Appears there are others who also believe it was about regime change
[ajm
Posted Monday, August 6, 2012 at 7:24 pm | Permalink
rummel
Really? so your being serious with this comment.
You betcha! Nothing is beyonf people driven by money and power.
Oh, and it’s “you’re” as in a contraction of “you are”, not “your”. Normally don’t complain about misspellings but for you I’ll make an exception.]
ajm
If im not mistaken its beyond and not beyonf
William Bowe @2222
Thanks for that article
Have a suspicion if ashby were to win on 2 oct the constitution whistle blowing,then all who have signed the crimes act, mostly under liberal guvmints,should be at liberty to blow the whistle on still living PM policies and orders.
fran
That’ll teach me to post quickly!
I’ve been driven crazy by the lazy language of many olympic winners. It’s just the way the young talk, like, obviously, but I goes “hell!” every time I, like, hear them go “He did great”.
And they’ve never heard of adverbs
Fran Barlow
[English is a funny language
Plead goes to pled as the past definite or past participle when describing pleas in court.]
It is indeed I have Geordie friends who do the same thing to treat so it becomes “tret”.
rummel
Difference between a (corrected) typo and an incorrect use of a word, laddie.
And it’s “I’m”, not “im”
And “it’s” not “its”. Get with the program.
poroti
[Fran Barlow
English is a funny language
Plead goes to pled as the past definite or past participle when describing pleas in court.
It is indeed I have Geordie friends who do the same thing to treat so it becomes “tret]
So is orstralian, How Ya goin Maate
7.5 does post mortem on our Nolympics.
Australia’s GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD – Unemployment 5.1%, GDP 4.3% – Inflation 1.2% – Interest 3.5% with $500B investment pipeline
Hurdling at its best clean as a whistle
Go Sally
There seems to be someone from Kazakhstan in ever race.
No wonder Kazakhstan is doing so much better than New Zealand.
Sally Pearson wins heat in 12.61 secs on the bit.
Curouis fact: The human brain wlil recongise mipselled words as lnog as the fsirt and lsat letetrs are corerct.
Aoccdrnig to rseerach at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a total mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Amzanig huh?
PS: Hwo’d yuo lkie to run tihs by yuor sepll ckehcer?
Puff,
The human brain also has an amazing ability to misread correctly-spelled words.
For as long as I can remember, I have read “shopfitters” as “shoplifters”.
And it was only when I reached my early 20s that I realised that I had been misspelling “attach” (and its derivates) all my life. I had written/typed it uncountable times as “attatch”. None – not a single one – of my teachers ever corrected it.
Schnappi
[So is orstralian, How Ya goin Maate]
Maaaaate who could forget the classic book by Afferbeck Lauder “Let Stalk Strine” 🙂
http://www.textfiles.com/humor/strine.txt
rummel,
[Hwo’d yuo lkie to run tihs by yuor sepll ckehcer?]
If it is guaranteed to make that “helper” explode with apoplexy, I’d be delighted.
rummel
At last we understand what your saying
Yep, you mishit a key on iPhone and it gives you led weight in your spelling.
Since pedantry skirted my point, here’s another sentence where every verb is clearly verboten for folks who hate verbs that were originallynouns:
‘Staging a dramatic finish as she challenged for the line, she later phoned home in relief’
What should be verboten is AOC types hogging the front pages of certain newspapers, blaming lack of government largesse for gold medal counts. Whilst the games are still running. Before any post mortem. Insulting every athlete whod like to feel her medal is earnt not bought. Just – to – frame – the -political -debate – first…