Seat of the week: Braddon

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).

To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.

The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.

In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).

It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.

The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.

Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.

Braddon/Darwin was held by Labor legend King O’Malley from its creation in 1903 until 1917, and then by conservatives of various stripes until Ron Davies gained it for Labor in 1958. Davies held the seat until 1975, when future Premier Ray Groom’s victory contributed to the first of the Liberals’ clean sweeps. Groom was in turn succeeded upon his move to state politics in 1984 by Chris Miles. The Liberals’ electoral position meanwhile continued to strengthen due to the decline of the area’s key industries and the political upheaval caused by the Franklin Dam controversy.

Braddon’s fortunes changed very suddenly in 1998, when a 10.0% swing made Peter “Sid” Sidebottom the seat’s first Labor member in 23 years. Labor has since been defeated only in 2004, when John Howard’s late-campaign trumping of Mark Latham over forestry jobs fuelled a 7.0% swing that delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Mark Baker. Sidebottom had declined to distance himself from Latham’s policy, unlike Dick Adams in neighbouring Lyons. Endorsed again in 2007, Sidebottom was able to recover the seat with a modest 2.6% swing, before adding a further 5.1% to his margin in 2010. On the former occasion the swing was most strongly concentrated around Smithton, reversing a heavy swing to the Liberals from 2004, while the swing in 2010 was greatest in Devonport and Latrobe.

Sid Sidebottom had been a Central Coast councillor and electorate officer to Senator Nick Sherry before entering parliament, and he returned to the employ of Sherry during the interruption of his parliamentary career from 2004 to 2007. Sidebottom is presently factionally unaligned, but like Sherry was formerly a member of the Centre/Independents faction, known in its Hawke government heyday as the Centre Left. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary after the 2001 election, serving in various permutations of agriculture, resources and fisheries over the ensuing term. It took until November 2011 for him to recover his old status, that month’s reshuffle slotting him into the familiar agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio.

The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Michael Burr, described by the Burnie Advocate as a “high-profile Devonport real estate business owner”. Burr won preselection from a field that also included Glynn Williams, a North Motton farmer and lawyer described in the local press as an “ultra conservative”, and lower-profile local Jacqui Lambie. Burr’s backers reportedly included Senators Richard Colbeck and Stephen Parry, and local state MP Adam Brooks. It was thought that another contender might be Brett Whiteley, who lost his state seat in Braddon at the 2010 election, but he announced in the week before the preselection that he would instead focus on returning to state politics.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,520 comments on “Seat of the week: Braddon”

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  1. poroti

    Actually had a beer with John O’Grady author of they are a weird mob in the Criterion hotel in kalgoorlie, told him a few tales as well.

  2. Despite the global arbiters of all things chemical ,IUPAC, defining it as Aluminium the yanks continue to battle on with aluminum. I guess they think it is some sort of socialist conspiracy . I still smile about their Mars probe crashing into Mars because they insisted on using miles rather than kilometers and stuffed up the difference

    LOL. Looked that up. It was Mar Climate Orbiter in 1999. The software on the ground issues instructions in imperial (pounds) while the spacecraft software used metric (newtons). So, the instructions for maneuvering burns were to put it mildly, wRONg .
    Instead of entering the atmosphere high up and slowing, apparently it went in deeper, faster and thats all she wrote. Sad.

  3. poroti,

    [Maaaaate who could forget the classic book by Afferbeck Lauder “Let Stalk Strine”]

    Then there was an English author who toured Australia, many years ago, to promote her latest book. One day she was at a bookshop, busy signing away, and the next person in the queue presented her with a copy of her book, which the author duly inscribed with wtte

    [With best wishes to Emma Chisit]

  4. shellbell

    [No wonder Kazakhstan is doing so much better than New Zealand.]
    Everyone knows Kiwis are a bunch of lazy dole bludgers. Hence they only win medals in sit down sports. Equestrian,rowing,yachting,kayaking etc 🙂

  5. [rummel

    At last we understand what your saying]

    There are a number of ironies in relation to what Rummel says and understanding it.

  6. [BK
    Posted Sunday, August 5, 2012 at 2:25 pm | Permalink

    Creationism to be taught in Queensland classrooms.

    ….

    Associated Christian Schools executive officer Lynne Doneley welcomed the draft curriculum, saying it cemented the position of a faith-based approach to teaching

    Surely this is child abuse!]

    Surely it is a joke?

  7. Schnappi

    [poroti

    Actually had a beer with John O’Grady]
    Take a bow. I remember many years ago watching the movie on NZBC and as a young bloke thought it very funny. It was why when I first came to Straya I was devastated to be met with blank stares when I asked for a schooner………..in Brisbane.

  8. Carey – all of them. We could have simpler spelling if we didn’t have a mongrel linguistic bloodstock. But then we’d have many fewer words to have fun with.

  9. Good evening all.

    Paul Bongiorno was on RN driving home and he mentioned the Essential results in terms of the spending on elite sport. He and Waleed Aly concluded that the results can’t be accurate because surely when we’re winning lots of gold AUstralians feel better about themselves.

    It was hard to know whether he was speaking tongue in cheek or in seriousness.

  10. poroti

    Ah for long ago, on army exercises stayed overnight in rockhampton ,beer called Macs beer,worst piss in the world,and have drank a few

  11. Yes, the answer is French. While the Norman influence on English is obvious, the real French influence happened several centuries later, when people started using French grammatical rules and introducing French words into the lexicon (French was the dominant language at the time). Of course, many in the intellectual classes were absolutely appalled by the corruption of the English language at the time and there were even fears that English was becoming French by stealth. Interestingly, several centuries later, the opposite fear exists in France. To the point where there are laws against introducing English neologisms into the language.

  12. Carey – my favourite on “healthy living” There is aclip from about 1968 of John Lennon and George Harrison laughing at people who don’t eat macrobiotic food (remember that one). Both are smoking at the time. What did Harrison die from? Lung cancer.

  13. Anyone had problems logging in to PB from an Ipad? I can log in from a desktop but PB refuses to do same from my Ipad??

  14. Boerwar

    [ Let’s face it, Mr Newman is not a good argument for evolution.]
    Feck all of an argument for Inteligent Design 😉

  15. While we’re talking about ‘Curiosity’ did anyone notice that the standard Russian launch with three astronauts to the ISS is on.

    Last Wednesday the Russians sent an unmanned resupply rocket to the ISS that docked in 6 hours rather than the usual 48 hours – a great increase in safety for people on the ISS.

  16. [Carey – my favourite on “healthy living” There is aclip from about 1968 of John Lennon and George Harrison laughing at people who don’t eat macrobiotic food (remember that one). Both are smoking at the time. What did Harrison die from? Lung cancer.]

    Haha yep.

    Hard to believe as it may be but the secret to good health is actually the most obvious: Eat a healthy and balanced diet, engage in regular exercise and have your indulgences in moderation.

  17. CTar1

    [While we’re talking about ‘Curiosity’ did anyone notice that the standard Russian launch with three astronauts to the ISS is on.]
    I’m waiting for a combined effort from the Russkies and the Chinese. One has the experience/knowledge and the other has the moola and both would lurve to stick it up the Americans.

  18. Rossmore – me too, both iDevices. I used to blame It on WordPress, which resolutely insists on remembering my old password, and so i have to mnually login pn each visit. But I’ve noticed the same problem with a rabbitohs blog. If it’s an Apple issue and there’s a ample fix I’d love to know.

  19. rummel
    Actually, lamb and mutton are from sheep of different ages. Lamb is supposed to have a pink stripe printed on it so you know you are getting the genuine article. There is also hogget which is older than lamb but not yet mutton. I do not think butchers or colworths bother much with selling meat in all these different grades now.

  20. [Not Rupert Murdoch @RupertMurdochPR 53m
    Louise Mensch resigned as an MP to make way for Boris Johnson’s rise to prime minister? That’s one hell of a rumour.]

  21. rummel,

    [why do we call cows, beef. Sheep, lamb. Pigs, pork and chicken, chicken.]

    It’s not a stupid question, though the living animal to butcher’s meat transition is somewhat more complex.

    For example, you will find that a butcher who really knows his/her stuff would differentiate spring lamb, hogget, two-tooth, and mutton – all from sheep, but the meat designations relate to different ages of the sheep. They all have a distinct flavour, as well, and also – especially mutton – are best cooked in different ways.

    There’s also the obvious distinction between veal and beef.

    I’ve never really considered this before, but it may have something to do with the (human) need to distinguish between a fellow living creature and something that we eat. Just a thought.

  22. victoria:

    Is that the genuine Rupe’s twitter account?

    I’d find it strange if he’s been openly tweeting about having DAvid Cameron replaced.

  23. Rummel, whilst Carey is blaming French for our spelling, we have porc’d pig and boeuf’ cattle thanks to the Normans enriching our language. Poultry is the equivalent for chook.

    The mystery is why mouton becam the word for tougher sheep and lamb the desirable commodity.

    Pa – try getting ‘chook’ via a Yankee spellchecker. ‘Cook’, ‘chock’…

  24. Aoccdrnig to rseerach at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a total mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Amzanig huh?

    PS: Hwo’d yuo lkie to run tihs by yuor sepll ckehcer?

    What the hell is that?

  25. Graeme

    [The mystery is why mouton becam the word for tougher sheep and lamb the desirable commodity]
    Nowt wrong with a drop of Mouton Rothschild 🙂

  26. Dee@2129,

    C@tmomma
    What year were you competing at the state level?

    Sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner, but Dinner & the Athletics at the Olympics intervened. 🙂

    I competed at the State level in Walking in 1974. I think the championships were held in Heffron Park. I saw the writing on the wall when a girl with longer legs than me beat me. 🙂

  27. [cows, beef. ]

    Well we call cattle “beef” (cow is just a female of the animal) because people probably didn’t like the thought of eating cattle.

    [Pigs, pork]

    See above. Also, ham and bacon 😉 “They’re from the same animal!” “Haha yeah right! A wonderful magic animal!”

    [Sheep, lamb.]

    Because lamb is the meat of lambs. Older sheep meat is either hogget or mutton – depending on age

    [and chicken, chicken.]

    Nobody likes chickens 🙁

  28. Diogenes @ 2209

    bemused

    Health of kids and self esteem are the two key reasons to get kids playing sport of some sort.

    It doesn’t help the self-esteem of some poor uncoordinated kid forcing them to get humiliated at sport.

    Ridiculous statement!

    The object of the exercise should be to help such kids to obtain a reasonable degree of competence.

    And don’t give me some crap about that not being always possible. Except in cases of genuine disability it is quite achievable.

  29. Carey Moore,

    [Yes, the answer is French.]

    There was also the “Frenchification” of English during the Victorian era, when using French words was regarded by the emerging middle class as a sign of having “made it”. Hence programme instead of the good old-fashioned latinate/Norman French program.

    It continued well into the 20th century too – I can remember seeing employment ads for typistes.

  30. [Actually had a beer with John O’Grady author of they are a weird mob in the Criterion hotel in kalgoorlie, told him a few tales as well.]

    Whaaaaaaat, schnappi? Kal-bloody-goorlie???

    Maaaaaate! Maaaaaaate! It’s gotta be Tumba-bloody-rumba

    on one o’ these occasions, when the bar was pretty full
    an’ the local blokes were arguin’ assorted kinds o’ bull,
    I heard a conversation, most peculiar in its way,
    Because only in Australia would you hear a joker say,
    “Where yer bloody been, yer drongo? ‘Aven’t seen yer fer a week;
    “An’ yer mate was lookin’ for yer when ‘e come in from the Creek;
    “‘E was lookin’ up at Ryan’s, an’ around at bloody Joe’s,
    “An’ even at the Royal where ‘e bloody never goes.”
    An’ the other bloke said “Seen ‘im. Owed ‘im ‘alf a bloody quid,
    “Forgot ter give ut back to ‘im; but now I bloody did.
    “Coulda used the thing me-bloody-self; been orf the bloody booze,

    But NOT

    “Up at Tumba-bloody-rumba shootin’ kanga-bloody-roos.” ?

    John O’Grady: Integrated Adjective”

  31. [The mystery is why mouton becam the word for tougher sheep and lamb the desirable commodity.]

    As I’ve gotten better at cooking I’ve actually moved away from the ‘prime’ cuts of meat towards the cheaper, more flavoursome alternatives. I rarely use chicken breast these days, preferring drumsticks and thigh cutlets for curries.

    Same for beef. I can’t remember the last time I had a scotch fillet, preferring instead to use gravy beef in stews and curries and the like.

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