Seat of the week: Braddon

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).

To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.

The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.

In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).

It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.

The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.

Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.

Braddon/Darwin was held by Labor legend King O’Malley from its creation in 1903 until 1917, and then by conservatives of various stripes until Ron Davies gained it for Labor in 1958. Davies held the seat until 1975, when future Premier Ray Groom’s victory contributed to the first of the Liberals’ clean sweeps. Groom was in turn succeeded upon his move to state politics in 1984 by Chris Miles. The Liberals’ electoral position meanwhile continued to strengthen due to the decline of the area’s key industries and the political upheaval caused by the Franklin Dam controversy.

Braddon’s fortunes changed very suddenly in 1998, when a 10.0% swing made Peter “Sid” Sidebottom the seat’s first Labor member in 23 years. Labor has since been defeated only in 2004, when John Howard’s late-campaign trumping of Mark Latham over forestry jobs fuelled a 7.0% swing that delivered the seat to Liberal candidate Mark Baker. Sidebottom had declined to distance himself from Latham’s policy, unlike Dick Adams in neighbouring Lyons. Endorsed again in 2007, Sidebottom was able to recover the seat with a modest 2.6% swing, before adding a further 5.1% to his margin in 2010. On the former occasion the swing was most strongly concentrated around Smithton, reversing a heavy swing to the Liberals from 2004, while the swing in 2010 was greatest in Devonport and Latrobe.

Sid Sidebottom had been a Central Coast councillor and electorate officer to Senator Nick Sherry before entering parliament, and he returned to the employ of Sherry during the interruption of his parliamentary career from 2004 to 2007. Sidebottom is presently factionally unaligned, but like Sherry was formerly a member of the Centre/Independents faction, known in its Hawke government heyday as the Centre Left. He was promoted to parliamentary secretary after the 2001 election, serving in various permutations of agriculture, resources and fisheries over the ensuing term. It took until November 2011 for him to recover his old status, that month’s reshuffle slotting him into the familiar agriculture, fisheries and forestry portfolio.

The Liberal candidate at the next election will be Michael Burr, described by the Burnie Advocate as a “high-profile Devonport real estate business owner”. Burr won preselection from a field that also included Glynn Williams, a North Motton farmer and lawyer described in the local press as an “ultra conservative”, and lower-profile local Jacqui Lambie. Burr’s backers reportedly included Senators Richard Colbeck and Stephen Parry, and local state MP Adam Brooks. It was thought that another contender might be Brett Whiteley, who lost his state seat in Braddon at the 2010 election, but he announced in the week before the preselection that he would instead focus on returning to state politics.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,520 comments on “Seat of the week: Braddon”

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  1. Can someone explain to me how a teacher with no qualifications in sport whatsoever is meant to make one iota of difference to our 2016 medals tally by standing in a field while kids play modified sport?

    Qualified PE teachers might, even teachers from other disciplines with coaching qualifications, but not a general class teacher told to get out there to fill some quota of physical activity in the timetable.

    Nor should they have to, it is not their job.

  3. leone @ 2081

    DRinMelb

    I was an active kid too, but school sport did nothing for me. As a teacher I saw kids – especially girls – being turned off sport completely by being forced to participate in activities they had no aptitude for, and by being mocked by the ‘good at sport’ kids because they didn’t have much ability at, say, netball.

    I would expect a good school to provide additional coaching to such kids to bring their skills up to a reasonable standard. Kids need motor skills and co-ordination.

    See as an extreme example what Frank Dando does with kids who are un-coordinated, not good at sport and failing academically at school. h­ttp://www.frankdando.com.au/

    As for those medallists – school sport has nothing to do with it. They got there because their parents took them to swimming training or gymnastics or Little Athletics or whatever and paid to do it financially and in other ways. For example, behind every Olympic swimmer there’s a mum and/or dad who dragged a child out of bed at four in the morning for training and who took the child back to the pool after school. The motivation, dedication and drive you mention is taught by the parents of future sports stars and by the coaches they employ.

    Hmmmm well I was a kid who went swimming training before and after school and I did it by my own motivation. I had a modest ability which improved considerably from hard training and within my club and school I was competitive.

    But in my area there were other kids who I encountered in inter-club and inter-school competition. Two that spring to mind were Mike Wenden and Bill Devenish, later Olympians. They cut me down to size. But the attitude was so what? Clearly they were at another level.

    So those Olympians do develop from among lots of kids doing the hard grind.

    No-one gets to be an Olympian simply because they played sport at school. To say, as Coates does, that more sport time at school will somehow get us more medals is just ridiculous.

    Certainly not by that alone, but it can be where they get started and first recognise they are good at something.
    Those not so talented (like me) can still have a great time competing at their level in club races etc including handicap events.

  4. ruawake

    [Howard was sacred shitless of admitting Australia did anything wrong – ever. 🙁 ]

    More

    [Howard was sacred shitless of admitting Australia Menzies did anything wrong – ever.

  5. ruawake

    [It seems like the Medallion was given to commemorate 50 years since the end of tests at Maralinga.]

    The medal of course was to have no need to pay compo for service and civilian personnels familys, or living surviors

  6. [ Schnappi

    Is it one awarded by a foreign government

    No , an Australian Medal]

    Would you have to shoot us if you told us Schnappi?

  8. I agree with Coates that more sport should be played at school but that isn’t an excuse, when I listen to people like Susie O’Neill and Geoff Huegal, there appears to be a cultural problem maybe stemming from certain people staying in certain jobs for too long a period.

    I note several officials have said that there is no problem with the current level of sport funding and one official remarked that the Gillard has delivered record funding.

  9. RE Q and A tonight
    _______________
    Katter can be entertaining and he is no fool
    but..ouch ..Brandis is a bore almost as bad as Emerson who is also tedious in the main….
    I think it’s a night to do something else

  11. [ReachTel will be conducting a poll of Ashgrove (Campbell Newman’s seat, in case you needed reminding) this evening, to be published tomorrow.]

    The result will be interesting, especially with Cam nice guy Newman saying he was mobbed by adoring voters at the shopping centre last weekend. 😆

  12. CanDo being mobbed, if he thinks he is so popular then why not have QandA sessions.

    Kennett at least was willing to take questions from the public

  14. Diogenes @ 2132

    bemused

    I’m all for encouraging school sports but they shouldn’t be compulsory.

    WRONG! The kids who need it most are the ones who would not participate if it was up to them.

    And we should encourage them so our kids are healthier, not to make d!ckheads like Coates and Gosper feel better.

    Well I wouldn’t do anything to make those dickheads feel better. Health of kids and self esteem are the two key reasons to get kids playing sport of some sort.

  15. The time factor regarding “more sport” in schools is a real one

    The school year is about 200 days long with maybe a working day of 6-7 hours.

    Most school already allocate timetabled time for physical activity in this framework.

    Interestingly, many schools have now shorten recess and lunch periods with, in some cases, the pm recess being done away with altogether. Bang has gone quite a bit informal sport time.

    Where to fit this extra time in is a the question.

    What to dish from the timetable is another, and in PS with up to 90% of the teaching staff (especially in government schools) being female, who to train, supervise and develop is another.

    It is simplistic to think the clock can be turned back to some golden era when all the boys and girls went out to play and future champions were just waiting their turn.

  16. [CanDo being mobbed, if he thinks he is so popular then why not have QandA sessions.]
    Big in mouth – little in courage!

  17. One thing that always fires up journos is any threat – real or perceived – to “freedom of speech”.

    I quote from Alastair Campbell:

    THE MEDIA CONTROLS THE TERMS OF DEBATE ABOUT THE MEDIA
    As to what Parliament or government can actually do about this culture of negativity – that is a very difficult question, because the media to a large extent controls the terms of debate about the media and will always be able to claim any political attempts at change are political attempts at control.

    I have said many times over recent years that media standards are unlikely to change for the better unless there is a proper debate within the media about the media.

    Even now, as I believe the contribution of most editors and senior journalists to your first seminar showed, they are not approaching that debate in anything other than a self-serving way. Had it not been for the relentless pursuit of phone-hacking by The Guardian, the story would probably have died away, which is what most papers wanted because of the light it was likely to shed on the profession as a whole.

    I recall the Mail, on the day Andy Coulson stepped down as David Cameron’s communications director, suggesting it was now time to move on. I suspect we know why they and other papers were so keen for the subject to die down.

    Any attempt to challenge the status quo, whether in relation to regulation, ownership or any of the other major issues in the industry, is quickly condemned as an attack on the freedom of the press.

    Even now, despite all that has become known, that remains the prevalent attitude within the media about the media.

    Those who challenge from within, like John Lloyd or Roy Greenslade, are often seen as lone voices. Yet if you look at polling figures (YouGov 2009) which show 75% of the public saying that ‘newspapers frequently publish stories they know are inaccurate’, and only 7% saying they trust national newspapers to behave responsibly – a lower trust score even than banks – and 60% calling for greater government intervention to protect privacy, 73% saying they would like the government to do more to correct inaccuracies in the media, surely they have a problem even they would wish to address.

    For it is an interesting paradox that while we have more media space than ever, complaint about the lack of healthy debate has never been louder; fewer stories and issues are being addressed in real depth in a way that engages large audiences; and despite the explosion in outlets, there are very few days in which there is not a single homogenous theme or talking point dominating the vast output. That ought to worry editors and owners.

    Yet even with the backdrop that exists to this inquiry, and the events that led to it, the contribution of most editors to the debate since the inquiry was set up has largely been marked by complacency about standards, arrogance about the value and integrity of modern journalism, and a continuing belief that they are able to regulate themselves.

    http://www.maryannmartinek.blogspot.com.au/

  18. Re Coates and Kid and sport
    ++++++
    What a stupid man..
    ….as if forcing reluctant kids to take up a sport has any value
    Anyway there is often a dearth of equipment and facilities as well as personell in schoolsin the Govt sector…of course the private schools have all the facilities and staff

    I agree that it’s the training that kids take up out of school …at their parents behest…. that makes champions

    Though in the last few days the graceless statements of some Aussie olympians make me thing that many are pampered,over-protected and spoiled by parents and coaches and have no real idea of the real world outside their little bubble..many are pampered darlings

  19. [chris murphy @chrismurphys 21m
    Believe.LAB has large bucket of poo to throw at Abbott.Why not?Cos LIB might throw poo back.Both should but won’t. Us the loser #auspol]

  20. [http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/anti-vaxxers-are-succeeding-in-taking-us-backwards/]

    Time for Government to stop playing nice with Conscientious objectors.

  21. The Oz reports:

    [LEFT-leading activist group GetUp! has condemned proposed Labor curbs on the media as an assault on freedom of speech.

    Incoming GetUp! director Sam Mclean said the group could not support a new super media regulator or a public interest test for media proprietors, currently under consideration by the Gillard government.]

  22. BB

    [Would you have to shoot us if you told us Schnappi?]

    Nah, just as well too, as think the little dictator will bring back the death penalty,as scared someone will shoot him

  23. [I note several officials have said that there is no problem with the current level of sport funding and one official remarked that the Gillard has delivered record funding.]

    I was watching one of the Olympic channels yesterday when an official said exactly that. She said the funding was at record levels and thanked the Govt. Said the kids have many other things to do now and good athletes are taken by AFL and NRL.

    Watching Lewis Jetta of Swannies’ fame you could easily imagine him as an Olympic runner – his speed is amazing. Why has Oz not encouraged more indigenous Australians to compete.

  25. With abbotts deranged speech today, it is a toss up whether to vote for fairfax or news ltd ,sure as hell waste our time voting for a party

  26. [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, August 6, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink
    The Oz reports:

    LEFT-leading activist group GetUp! has condemned proposed Labor curbs on the media as an assault on freedom of speech.

    Incoming GetUp! director Sam Mclean said the group could not support a new super media regulator or a public interest test for media proprietors, currently under consideration by the Gillard government.]

    I just choked on my salad. Go Getup 🙂

  28. [When Gina Rinehart announced she had bought up a large stake in Fairfax Media, publishers of The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, in order to gain seats on the board of Fairfax, GetUp members mobilised to protect the editorial independence of our media. With over 12,000 emails sent to Fairfax, GetUp members sent a message to Fairfax that it wasn’t profitable to give up their independence. ]

    Suck shit Can’t Get it Up 😛

  29. Has anyone read the whole article in the AFR on Saturday 4th August?

    [Murder, he wrote: the usual suspects
    PUBLISHED: 04 AUG 2012 00:07:30 | UPDATED: 04 AUG 2012 00:32:18
    SHARE LINKS:email print-font+font
    Of the many splendid comic moments this year for which we must thank James Ashby and his selfless work to bring down his boss, Peter Slipper, two are standout winners in his text and email records tabled in Federal Court.]

  31. news.com.au has this story:

    [Australian Agricultural Company CEO David Farley is not the first person of public prominence to degrade our prime minister.

    Sydney radio host Alan Jones threatened to send her out to sea, Kevin Rudd allegedly called her “childless, atheist, ex-communist” and many others have just chosen to address her as “Julia”.

    It’s terminology you’d expect to find at a backyard barbecue, on a sports field or in the heat of argument but not from the mouths of public figures, especially when it’s addressed to the head of government.
    ]
    [Their comments raise two important questions. Firstly, when and why did we decide that it was OK to address the heads of state in such a disrespectful way? And how much does the Prime Minister’s status as first ever female leader have anything to do with it?
    ]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/all-they-are-asking-for-is-a-little-respect/story-fncynjr2-1226444146558

    The article by Lucy Kippist concludes:
    [It’s disrespectful, juvenile and completely unproductive and should be left where it belongs – in the playground.]

    It is really hard to know why the Murdoch media has suddenly decided to run this story – are they genuinely concerned about comments by Alan Jones and David Farley and if so, why have they not run such a story a long time ago?

  32. [Neil Chenoweth
    @NeilChenoweth
    Sydney]
    [Australian Financial Review, author Virtual Murdoch (2001), Rupert Murdoch (2002), Packer’s Lunch (2006), Murdoch’s Pirates (late 2012)
    http://afr.com/paytvpiracy%5D

    [Neil Chenoweth @NeilChenoweth 2m
    @Maybeee2011 I’m a boring business reporter. Political coverage is above my payscale. But News has skewed the national agenda. Don’t like it]

    [Neil Chenoweth @NeilChenoweth 17m
    I see Christopher Pyne more in the political assassin line . . . .perhaps with a large bowl of jelly]

    [Neil Chenoweth @NeilChenoweth 20m
    The effect of the 7.30 coverage of the Slipper-Ashby saga in this instance was to airbrush Lewis and News Ltd from the coverage. Hard call]

    [Neil Chenoweth @NeilChenoweth 21m
    ABC cut line of Doane email: ‘I think Steve Lewis would agree another day of waiting to ensure everything is as it should be is worth it.’]
    [Neil Chenoweth @NeilChenoweth 22m
    July 26 7.30 quotes Doane to Brough:Hi, Mal…I believe James understood he needs to follow legal advice…depo taken beforeit goes to press]

    [Neil Chenoweth @NeilChenoweth 27m
    In Slipper saga, how to treat NewsLtd role? Ashby earns $145k. News Ltd paid his hotel bill while he was seeing his lawyers to sue Slipper]

    [Neil Chenoweth @NeilChenoweth 33m
    So if govt was going to knock off Ashby as he claims, who would it be? Kevin? Swanny (death by music?) Always thort Albo looks like a biter]

    [Neil Chenoweth @NeilChenoweth 35m
    Slipper saga: Wonderful claim by Ashby-his lawyers said he needed 24-hour security “to avoid death” afr.com/p/murder_he_wr… (pay, sadly)]

  33. I dare say Campbell Newman is mobbed by people that worship him on the basis that anyone who has not been prescreened is not allowed within cooee of him and no one who hasn’t paid for the privilege is allowed to actually talk to him. This is, after all, the LNP where good government is based around how much you pay.

  36. Somebludgers, way back, objected to the verb ‘medalled’.

    Fair enough it sound ugly. But which of all six verbs here will we toss out because they have noun-pairs?

    “As she protested, her opponents lead the kayak race home, medalling and – imperiously – texting their families back home, whilst the scoreboard registered their achievement”

  37. Schnappi

    [With abbotts deranged speech today, it is a toss up whether to vote for fairfax or news ltd ,sure as hell waste our time voting for a party]
    Yep it is now just a case of selecting which billionaire gets to screw you over.

  38. [“As she protested, her opponents lead the kayak race home, medalling and – imperiously – texting their families back home, whilst the scoreboard registered their achievement”]

    I have always wanted to spell “lead” as “led”.

    Can anyone give me a definitive ruling?

  40. P.S. I spell “colour” as “color”.

    Then again Labor spells “Labour” as “Labor”.

    Reading William’s linked SMH from the war years, it was at that time spelt (spelled?) “Labour”

    I gotta know. Goin’ crazy here wanting to lead on led.

  41. BB,

    “Led” is the past tense of the verb “to lead” (pronounced “leed”).

    The “lead” that is pronounced “led” is the metal.

  42. Lizzie,

    [Graeme

    It shouldn’t be “lead” it should be “led”. Drives me bonkers, so many spell it wrong.]

    Was that in response to my #2188 or do you have led poisoning as well?

  43. Bushfire

    You’re (not your) right.

    Lead is the metal, or the present tense “I am leading the horse”. “She leads me to green pastures.”
    But the past tense of lead is led. Trust me.

  44. [BB,

    “Led” is the past tense of the verb “to lead” (pronounced “leed”).

    The “lead” that is pronounced “led” is the metal.]

    Too obtuse. I need someone to tell me what to do.

  45. citizen

    [It is really hard to know why the Murdoch media has suddenly decided to run this story]
    Elementary my dear Watson. He has a long history of claiming one of those stories mingled with the other 99 anti ones as being proof of “balanced” reporting.

  48. Well, now it’s becoming pretty obvious why that proposal for a Getup campaign to make the ABC conform to its charter just never seemed to get traction. Obviously whiteanted from within.

    Does Getup publish its financial accounts and disclose all donations received in both cash and kind?

    Seems a bit unlikely for someone to have set up something like Getup as a cover for right wing politics (or subverted an existing organisation) but stranger things have happened.

    It’s not a bad idea to split moderate progressive voters off from the Labor party on the pretext that you’re setting up a “new model” of politics.

  49. There was a mention of ant-vaxxers back before. I have the sad honour of knowing one very well.

    I gave up on trying to argue with them on it because all evidence I supplied to demonstrate that vaccines are safe and work were countered with conspiracy theories like “that’s what big pharma wants you to think”

    Should add this person (and his partner) are what I call the “pseudo-healthy” – the type of people to forward everybody an email about the dangers of aspartame, while being oblivious to the fact that fizzy drinks, period are very unhealthy for you (especially when filled with sugar) and guzzling down a shitload of sweet soft drink.

    Or lecturing about the importance of using sea salt, as opposed to normal salt… to sprinkle over their deep fried crap..

    Needless to say, they aren’t physically active people (if he leaves the yard, it’s in his car and she gets driven around everywhere too – and they certainly don’t exercise).

    I am not judgemental of such a lifestyle but it pisses me off when people like that have the nerve to be condescending to others about their health.

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