James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
Preselection news:
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.
Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.
Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.
Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.
Bu Abbott defending Brough actions., means he did have knowledge of what brough was doing in the slipper affair
Abbott must stand down and explain in what he knows
[bemused should just change his blog name to ‘smug’. It’s much more appropriate.]
Nyaaaah. Her/his posts are in line with her/his chosen identity:
Bemused
Meaning: perplexed by many conflicting situations or statements; filled with bewilderment;
Synonyms baffled , befuddled , bewildered , confounded , confused , lost , mazed , mixed-up.
Antonyms: enlighten, explain, illuminate, tell.
IMO, fits him/her to a T.
Meguire Bob,
It was a Chasers like stunt!
Greensborough Growler
Maybe so , but Abbott still needs to stand down
Fran
[Browsing your link to Mr Semple, I’m reminded of why I stopped paying attention to him.]
Fair enough. I really wouldn’t want to wish him on my worst enemy.
Had a chat with my father today. He said the Premiers played politics and
Lost. He also reckons there will be long term repercussions, especially for our Ted.
GG – Milne must be feeling quite secure now. Bandt on dodgey ground and the Libs have SH-Y’s ‘note’ tucked away’ for use when they need it.
Nielsen is due soon and could be tomorrow. Last poll was 58/42 so expect some good news relatively speaking when it comes out. There is no chance the position wouldn’t have improved from the last Newspoll.
WOW
Julia Gillard is STILL the Prime Minister.
Jennifer Hewitt has 64 days left to get her (the PM) out of the job or she (Hewett)MUST resign.
I’m loving the anti-Can’tDo comments.
They’re pouring in (up to 235 now)
some of the menzies house are up and about, but being comprehensively drowned out/laughed at.
My personal favourite:
[Can Do is a Can’t]
davidwh
i cant see the pro coaliton media polls changing
they are a farce
kezza2
If Qld are already having buyer’s remorse, perhaps Qld is not lost to Labor just yet
here’s the link again:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/premier-campbell-newman-experiences-the-week-from-hell/comments-e6freoof-1226437109035?pg=3
I note that although Abbott has mouthed a few words of support for Brough’s character (all has already been told!!) he has not gone as far as to endorse him for selection.
davidwh – Tones and Mitt make a matching set on foreign policy.
Injudicious and no idea.
davidwh
I will be very surprised if the polls improve for Labor
[His conduct this week has been nothing short of appalling.]
Entirely befitting little big man.
Lizzie
Selection for the seat of Fisher is due today or tomorrow. I expect McGrath will get the nod
vic
Never was, despite the doomsayers.
But, Can’tDo is sure giving the ALP a helping hand 😆
[ bemused
Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 11:54 am | Permalink
BB @ 5492
Yeah right BB.
What is sentiment in your ALP branch at present or are you just a commentator like your despised Carney?]
Really, bemused, are you so shallow that you cannot accept that Gillard had a win on NDIS and comprehensively outmanoeuvred O’Farrell and Bailieu? And in the process stopped another Abbott-Credlin attempt at Tea Partying over funding for NDIS?
Trying to score a personal point off BB does not negate failing to look at the evidence objectively.
Do pollsters call people on mobile phones?
[lizzie
Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 12:59 pm | Permalink
I note that although Abbott has mouthed a few words of support for Brough’s character (all has already been told!!) he has not gone as far as to endorse him for selection.]
Apparently Howard wrote a letter endorsing Brough, too.
Kiss of Death??
And, another candidate pulled out, can’t remember his name, but he said that it wasn’t his decision but was “ordered to” by head office. Hmmmm.
GG
The photo in your link is a bit how weirdment.
If the Liberals preference Greens last they are missing a golden opportunity to keep the centre left vote stuffed for as long as possible.
Rex Douglas @ 5547
I agree. Newman is obviously not one that the PM should share any confidences with. These meetings are conducted in confidence, to allow participants to speak their minds without worrying about their conversations being ‘leaked’.
Obviously Newman knows no decency or good manners. I have to live with this little runt here in QLD. He is the absolute pits. He was an arrogant little grub when Lord Mayor.
i wont be surprise if the polls ask about the labor leadership and not much more
k2
Mr Newman did not ‘experience’ the week from hell. He created it.
[Adam Bandt officially screwed. Bandt will have the opportunity to live his rhetoric and try and win his seat without conservative preferences.]
Ah, GG! But it’s Grattan’s article, so credibility imo not all that reliable.
So much lurve for Can-Do!
Would I be wrong in assuming that the trials for the NDIS could, reasonably, be seen as a cost/benefit analysis?
I don’t have any problems with Mr Newman getting the books in order by cutting down on spending. This requires some hard decisions on his part – ones that Labor should have made long ago.
What I mind is that petty-minded zeal and relish he brings to the task, as if he is the sort of person who reads Kafka for inspiration.
A preselection loss for Brough this weekend could be the trigger for the cutting loose of Ashby and the collapse of his harassment case
What is this world coming to?
If South Sydney beat the Tigers they will move into second place on the table 😯
And, I’m even thinking of backing the Gold Coast Titans to win the comp 😯
It’s a worry 😐
If it’s any consolation, the bananaführer’s margin in Ashgrove is only 5.7%.
Keep digging at it, Cando.
BW,
It’s a current article of faith in the Liberal Party that preferencing the Greens last in the Victorian State election is what won them the election. It has something to do with living your principles and values.
By my back of the envelope calculations the federal government could fund the entire NDIS with a 1% levy on taxable income. This would include an exemption for people who earn under $18200 because those people don’t pay income tax so I don’t think should be expected to contribute to the NDIS.
If the federal government proposed such a levy I think it should be supported.
The sort of feedback that kezza2 has pointed out in the CM is a big challenge for CanDo.
He has lots of nasty stuff in progress and more he wants to do as early as possible in his first term.
How he navigates this will be ‘interesting’ as the sacking of many PS employees is still to hit.
kezza2
I am under no illusion that Labor are in trouble. But the cure being advocated by some will only give the party a minute of peace, and thereafter hell.
I think Poliquant or Possum did the numbers and, a/c to the psephs, Mr Bandt may well get up regardless of Liberal preferences.
The real question is, ‘So what?’
The Greens are never going to amount to more than political gnats: they get in your eyes, your hair, and up your nostrils, but they will never make much real difference.
A rare fluke, in which a Mr Bandt happens to matter because of a hung parliament, will be just that: a rare fluke.
And who wants to waste their time hoping for rare flukes?
ShowsOn
Perhaps the Fibs will find the money from general revenue as posited by Mr Abbott
If the Greens refuse to accept the recommendations, which will more than likely include offshore processing, of that comittee Labor MUST put the Greens last in the Senate.
Also, by my calculations Anne Hathaway as Catwoman is really hot.
GG
[BW,
It’s a current article of faith in the Liberal Party that preferencing the Greens last in the Victorian State election is what won them the election. It has something to do with living your principles and values.]
Don’t get me wrong. I am glad they are doing it. I just think it is stupid politics on their part.
[Nielsen is due soon and could be tomorrow.]
Hi Bludgers – a quick drop in cos I’ve still got a houseful of rellies but I’m crying here.
Just had a Nielsen polling call and had to be between ages of 18-49. Thought I’d have a go at getting away with the an age group but they only had one for males 18-39. None that age here at the time so we missed a vote for Labor . Darn grandsons, how dare they go surfing when they’re needed for Nielsen. No dinner for them tonight. Drat!!!
Hope someone else had better luck.
C
[If the Greens refuse to accept the recommendations, which will more than likely include offshore processing, of that comittee Labor MUST put the Greens last in the Senate.]
Labor should that regardless of what the Greens do because the Greens are destroying the centre left vote and handing governments to reactionaries, right, far right, and raving looney right.
[ShowsOn
Perhaps the Fibs will find the money from general revenue as posited by Mr Abbott]
Gillard clearly won’t support the idea before the next election.
But I think it is highly likely that whoever is in government will use a permanent levy of some sort to provide that funding.
And SO THEY SHOULD! This is an insurance scheme that effectively aims to insure EVERYONE against the possibility that they or a family member or a friend may become badly disabled sometime in their life, or that they have a child who is born badly disabled.
We should all contribute! And the only exemption should be people on low incomes. And let’s face it $18,200 is about 1/4 of average yearly earnings for someone working full time.
Hockey’s mission to increase the GST may be premised on the noble cause of funding the NDIS.
Showson
Abbott and his crew get away with implementing levies. Therefore they should be able to get the public on board with this very important reform. Of course, if Labor were to do so, it would be a disaster.
[Hockey’s mission to increase the GST may be premised on the noble cause of funding the NDIS.]
That at least should be something discussed and debated.
If you did increase the GST you’d still need to use some of the money to reduce income taxes for low and middle income earners.
And the feds would then need a legislative mechanism to ensure that the extra funding goes to the NDIS and perhaps an agreement that the states cut some nuisance taxes too like stamp duty.
It should at least be talked about.
BW
[Mr Newman did not ‘experience’ the week from hell. He created it.]
How true.
Roll on the NBN.
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/onepercent/2012/07/google-gigabit-fibre-optic.html