Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition

James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.

Also out today:

• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.

• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.

Preselection news:

Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.

Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.

Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.

Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.

Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,685 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Bushfire Bill@5490,
    Hear! Hear!

    What I find particularly offensive about the Shaun Carneys and Mike Carltons of the supposedly Left-leaning end of the journalistic spectrum, is the expectation that the Prime Minister, not only has to achieve resounding policy success, such as the implementation of the NDIS, but also has to be the equivalent of a political lap dancer in order to successfully ‘sell’ it to the electorate.

    Such barely-disguised sexism really gets up my nose.

  2. BB @ 5497

    I’m not a member, and wouldn’t want to be if they’re anything like you.

    So just a barracker with no skin in the game.

  3. c@tmomma: as far as I know Laura Tingle’s dad John is still alive and kicking. But I doubt he would be hanging his head in shame about gun massacres.

    When you think about it, Laura’s dad probably isn’t all that much older than her hubby Ah, I remember meeting Laura when she was young and fragrant around the Press Gallery. Stunning and intelligent girl who seemingly had a taste for rather unusual boyfriends, culminating in marriage to Alan Ramsay, who has always rather reminded me of Mr Punch the puppet. (Big hit with ladies, though. He has that kind of earnest pomposity – or is it pompous earnestness – that intelligent girls are often drawn to in a bloke.)

  4. Someone asked me about my newspaper experience the other day.

    I can tell you one thing for sure:

    If the print media decided to run 24/7 positive stories about JG and the government’s successes and positive stories about policy, the polls would turn in a flash.

  6. So just a barracker with no skin in the game.

    That’s a bit pathetic bemused. The “game” is Govt. We all have “skin” in that.

  7. I must say it is fun watching the capers those who have been pouring shit on our institutions, and the current occupants thereof, when they suddenly realize that reality is when the rubber hits the road, not when their foul words soar.

  8. I appreciate Ms Tingle as a journo. Some stories from friends helped by her in times of trouble lead me to admire her as a person as well.

  9. bemused,

    So just a barracker with no skin in the game.

    The sort of skin you appear to have in the ALP ‘game’ bemused, could best be characterised as Melanoma.

  10. kezza2 @ 5504

    If the print media decided to run 24/7 positive stories about JG and the government’s successes and positive stories about policy, the polls would turn in a flash.

    That would make it just a propaganda sheet.

  11. BSA Bob
    [$850 a year for the NDIS sounds like a lot more money than the cost of a coffee or a beer a week ]

    It works out to $1.634615385 a week, which is a lot less than a beer/coffee a week.

  12. Bemused:

    You’ve linked to Google with that Carney post above.

    To the substance of his article:

    Carney’s favourite subject – I’m starting to think it’s his only subject – is how horrible everything is for the ALP, all the time. I look forward to the day he deigns to drag himself away from polls and leadership speculation, to discuss policy. But he evidently finds that sort of talk distasteful.

    If the media ignores it, it will not go away.

    Well, we’ll never know will we? Because the media can’t stop talking about it. Some sections – Carney prime among them – talk of nothing else. He specialises in doomsaying. It’s lazy reportage, and I do note that when he touches on policy at all – glancing mentions – he talks about legislative achievements. Perhaps if we heard a little more about them and a little less about leadershit there might be a more positive view of the current government out there.

    But no. It’s blah blah they-can’t-see-the-light, blah blah they’re-risking-losing-government, blah blah blah blah blah.

    Put simply: if Carney’s right, if Rudd is driven by the desire to right a personal wrong, then he has no place in the current ALP, or in politics at all really. He’s doing his own party no good. If the party is doing the right things, getting good policy enacted, in control of the economic indicators, and still driving a legislative program through – which they are – nothing Rudd can do can make any of that side of things better.

    Nobody’s even arguing that, I notice. It’s all trembling knees and poll figures. I’d consider Rudd myself if his crusade was linked to some kind of “this is how we’d do things” rhetoric. But it just looks like a bruised ego to me.

  13. I looked at the Alan Moir cartoon of Newman (thanks, BK) and was struck immediately at the little man’s likeness to Abbott. Perhaps Moir is trying to tell us something. But my view is that Newman is more dangerous to Qld. Having ‘ruled’ Brisbane, I doubt that he takes much advice from anyone.

  14. C@tmomma @ 5505

    kezza2,
    bemused should just change his blog name to ‘smug’. It’s much more appropriate.

    I could think up a few suggestions for you too. But I will refrain.

  15. [BB @ 5497

    I’m not a member, and wouldn’t want to be if they’re anything like you.

    So just a barracker with no skin in the game.]

    What a pathetically pissweak thing to say, bemused.

    We only have your word for it that you’re a member of the party yourself.

    Given the bullshit you so regularly espouse around here, I’d take your protestations of “member” status with a large pinch of salt, plus smother it with vindaloo paste to kill the odour.

    Classic Concern Troll 101 is to claim to be a fallen angel.

    In any case, being a citizen is enough for me, especially when crackpots like yourself are on the loose.

  18. Boerwar: too right, Laura is a nice person. Unusually so for a Press Gallery journo. Ramsay is ok too, but a bit more pompous.

    And, although I haven’t met him, I am told John Tingje is a terrific bloke: if you can somehow look past the fact that he is a gun lobbyist and to the right of Genghis Khan!!

  21. Sinodinis on ABC 24 is “very concerned about long term NDIS funding”, and urges PM to take up Abbott’s offer of a bipartisan meeting …”we need a multi party committee”.

    Looking like Kojak incidentally, he is spewing crap in an effort to gather some credit from the NDIS for his so cooperative leader.

  23. How unsubtle are these Abbotteer creeps. “JG must introduce a levy for the NDIS”.

    Bollocks ….. They’re desperate to create the next BIG NEW TAX mantra. Slimes!

  24. bemused,

    I could think up a few suggestions for you too. But I will refrain.

    Typical passive aggressive nonsense we’ve come to expect from bemused. About the level of a 5th Grader.

  25. Bemused
    [Pardon?
    Where did I say that? I did not express an opinion on that issue, I merely reported what Mike Carlton said and he most certainly does not thing Gillard is winning anything.]

    You’ve got a real mental problem with your hatred of Julia Gillard, the PM!.

  26. [It works out to $1.634615385 a week, which is a lot less than a beer/coffee a week.]

    $16.35 a week Dan. More than I spend on Coffee but less tham I spend on beer

  27. meher baba,
    You’re correct about John Tingle. Still going strong at 81:

    In 2007 he was appointed to the NSW Administrative Decisions Tribunal. He has three children.[2] His daughter Laura Tingle is a political journalist, in Canberra, for the Australian Financial Review.

    He currently presents programs on Hastings Community FM Radio’s 2WAY FM on the NSW Mid North Coast, on a casual basis, specialising in classical music and swing.

  28. [So just a barracker with no skin in the game.]

    This will encourage heaps of people to join.

    ‘No skin’ – last time I looked everyone over 18 gets to actually vote.

    FFS

  31. [This will encourage heaps of people to join.]

    And if the arrogant attitude doesn’t scare them off, then the endless tales of branch meetings where members just sit around and despair at everything certainly will.

  33. [My grandfather worked as a signalman for Great Western Railways and always swore it was the best of them all.]

    OH would have been emerald green! On the 1982 LSL trip, he brought home (cabin baggage) brass cabside plate 4178 off a Prairie Tank-engine; in 2003, added a brass plaque of the GWR badge. I recently bought Offspring an enameled steel GWR 1938/9 ad plate with a mounted Guardsman outside Buck palace. He ‘owned’ most of ‘downstairs’ inc garage, aka Blokes’ Heaven.

  34. Then again that Ashby bloke has heaps of skin in the game. His view on the world must be far more illuminating than Bushy’s.

  36. [How unsubtle are these Abbotteer creeps. “JG must introduce a levy for the NDIS”.

    Bollocks ….. They’re desperate to create the next BIG NEW TAX mantra. Slimes!]

    Pretty transparent isn’t it?Loved that bit in the PvO article where he said the Premiers”assured Gillard”that they’d back her.

    Sufferin’ suckertash! Talk about scorpions and frogs crossing rivers together!

  38. [gough1
    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 12:30 pm | Permalink
    Tony Windsor doesn’t belong to a political party. Another bloke with no skin in the game.]

    Perfect put-down to bemused’s illogical thought processes.

  39. OzPolT

    Funny, isn’t it. As far as I know, the only souvenir my grandfather had from all his years (from teens to retirement) in GWR was a photo of himself “working the signals”.
    They were pulled by hand and my grandmother always swore it strained his heart and led to his early death. A very isolated life in a signal box, I think.

  40. BB,

    The fact that Newman leaked the private in confidence discussions would not make you overly confident of the Premiers honour or trustworthiness.

  41. You may well beright, BB, and I hope you are. But if the Labor vote says down at about 28%, reason and fine argument will stand for nothing.

  42. PvO’s rant is just plain weird. He’s completely lost sight of the reality of delivering this enormous reform.

    The NDIS trials being step 1 are now a reality and will be implemented.

    Options for full implementation and funding will now be formed on the basis of the trial outcomes.

    That’s basic procedure.

    PvO has completely lost the plot on this.

  43. 5537 interruptus

    something spooky is happening with my PC but I’ll continue.

    Bemused is all “look at the polls. No real nod to principle policy courage and due to his short sightedness any common sense.

    Appears to be a noddy like Cheeseman, Bishop and snoozers like waffle Mclleland.

    Harden the frig up.

  45. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    Peter van Onselen’s basic story is that Gillard f**ked up the negotiations but still managed to extract a victory from the jaws of defeat.

    She does a lot of that, doesn’t she?

    Clumsy, “chaotic”, devious, full of spin, confused, impotent,dysfunctional… youse get the drift… yet these negotiations where she gets just what she set out to get seem to happen an awful lot of the time.

    So, success is the first rule.]

    Who can forget how she seriously stuffed up by not appointing Carr to Foreign Affairs and than astoundingly emerged with Carr to announce the appointment?

  46. [You may well beright, BB, and I hope you are. But if the Labor vote says down at about 28%, reason and fine argument will stand for nothing.]

    It hasn’t been in the twenties for long, and none of the other polls have it there. So I’m not too worried.

    There are several pots on the stove at the moment, heating up. I’m looking for a couple of them to come to the boil soon.

    I am also encouraged by Abbott’s propensity to unhinge. It must have been a terrible strain on him to stay sane-looking for all this time. He’ll crack eventually.

  47. Newman really owes the PM and the other Premiers an apology for breaching protocol/confidentiality by briefing the media.

    His conduct this week has been nothing short of appalling.

  48. gough1

    [I usually stay silent and ingnore soem of the more pedantic posters]

    Don’t let them put you off.

    Late last night I made a comment quite ‘tonge in cheek’ on one and forgot to stick the 👿 on it. (not ‘dave’ who I was also quiping with around then).

    I was thanked for my support.

    😆

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