James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
Preselection news:
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.
Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.
Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.
Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.
[No, it would not. Uranium is only one of the valuable ores, and if uranium were the only ore of value there it probably wouldn’t be worth mining it. AIUI it’s the copper that makes the mine viable, while the uranium is a very nice bonus.]
Oh FFS, you can’t just mine the copper ore but not the uranium ore!
Blonde lady in the audience puts Pyne on the spot and he is worming his way out of it. Tittering is heard.
He is a disgrace.
I suppose there will now be three solid days of PB ruddstoration and spineless jelly-wobbling.
Couldn’t we just get one of those prayer-wheel things? Instead of saying the lines, we can just spin the wheel with the writing on it.
Oh oh. Jones admonishes Pyne for his rudeness.
Confessions
I meant James J or GhostWhoVotes. I didn’t mean to suggest they are the same person
It sound as though catching q&a later on might not be worth the effort.
Puff,
No, because we are sentient beings and don’t need to spin wheels.
Which rather destroys the pokies argument, now I come to think about it.
Puff
You would explode if you watched it.
Pyne is 20% of the panel yet gets 40% of the talk time.
BK,
Pyne…rudeness
Lost cause.
BK
Not watching Q&A.
Is Roxon on the panel?
If so, has she been able to say anything or is it the Poodle show?
Given that the carbon tax has so far proven to be more of a mozzie bite than a python squeeze and the Liberal State Governments are slashing and burning how on earth can the ALP vote go backwards to 28%?
Only thing I can think of is boats which I discovered are getting a hell of a run with the tabloids and shock jocks when I spent time with some relatives based in regional NSW.
fran
[No, it would not. Uranium is only one of the valuable ores, and if uranium were the only ore of value there it probably wouldn’t be worth mining it. AIUI it’s the copper that makes the mine viable, while the uranium is a very nice bonus.]
We share a view on the desirability of nuclear power and I am quite happy to accept your qualifications on it.
The Greens have a quite specific policy measure that they will ban the exploration, mining and export of uranium. No more, no less. Olympic Dam mines and exports thousands of tonnes of uranium.
There is no mention of uranium by value or by quantity in the Greens policy. These are, therefore, irrelevant to the Greens.
The policy is quite black and white. Incidentally, Roxby has tens of thousands of tonnes of uranium. If a Greens government is consistent with its policies, it will close Olympic Dam.
The PBO will slaughter the Greens on this policy. The revenue foregone and the costs to budget of looking after the mass social and employment dislocation of implementing this policy alone would break the bank.
Dee
Yes Nicola is on fighting the brave fight but Jones is useless as a moderator, letting Pyne take over and ruin the show.
Pyne is a thorough disgrace – rude, arrogant, just your everyday smart arse!! Imagine him as a Minister.
I only watched the first 15 minutes as I became so angry with Pyne. Can’t someone shoot him – politically that is. Why is he allowed to hog the limelight?
Put qanda on. Roxon just asked Pyne to put up his education policies.
I wish Mr Pyne was on Labor’s side. He is very hard working. He is smart. He has been a very able tactician in the House. He is loyal. I could go on and on. They can have Mr Fizgibbon and we could take Mr Pyne as a useful trade.
feeney
Pyne continues to outstrip his own dizzy heights of obnoxiousness.
What the latest Newspoll suggests to me, when it comes to the drop in Primary Vote for the ALP, is that the electorate really do not like the fact that asylum seeker boats keep on coming, and now at an increased rate of 1 or 2 a day.
Just a hunch, but, despite the fact it is the two Opposition parties, Greens and Coalition, who are preventing the government doing something about it legislatively, the government is copping the blame.
[Given that the carbon tax has so far proven to be more of a mozzie bite than a python squeeze and the Liberal State Governments are slashing and burning how on earth can the ALP vote go backwards to 28%?
Only thing I can think of is boats which I discovered are getting a hell of a run with the tabloids and shock jocks when I spent time with some relatives based in regional NSW.]
The waves of GOVERNMENT IS INEVITABLY DOOMED UNLESS RUDD COMES BACK stories probably don’t help, either. If you weren’t closely following things to get the idea of what was going on, you probably would get the impression of dysfunction and chaos, just like Abbott wants to project.
[The Greens have a quite specific policy measure that they will ban the exploration, mining and export of uranium. No more, no less. Olympic Dam mines and exports thousands of tonnes of uranium.]
And in doing so would condemn the globe to uncontrollable climate change and exorbitant energy costs.
Pyne says?
Newspoll: Plus ca change.
(How do we do a cedilla on Bludger?)
[MurdochPoll has ALP primary 28, Morgan at 33, Essential at 32. Who is the nigger in the woodpile? Dodgy brothers #newscorpse]
why you give these regime changers such credence is beyond me William.
C@tmomma:
Did you make it to the courts today?
[14
BK
Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 at 10:25 pm | Permalink
Dee
Yes Nicola is on fighting the brave fight but Jones is useless as a moderator, letting Pyne take over and ruin the show.]
Clearly Q&A needs a cone of silence for plonkers like the poodle. All Jones would have to do is press a button and the fool would be silenced.
I may write to the ABC suggesting just that.
BK @ 18
Yes, I really think he believes he is the greatest. I could use a number of adjectives to describe him, but I like your “dizzy heights of obnoxiousness”.
Has anyone else noticed that when Tony Jones wants to he can interrupt and cut off a government MP in the middle of an answer but appears strangely incapable of the same behaviour when it comes to an Opposition MP?
To put it another way, how many times has the shadow education minister asked a question of the education minister?
… and there was I thinking it might be an okay QandA to watch because there was only going to one fucknut on the panel.
Never mind. I suppose it is Their ABC after all.
“If you can’t beat them with numbers, overwhelm them with verbal diarrhoea”.
[why you give these regime changers such credence is beyond me William.]
Where is your evidence that Newspoll is biased?
You’re just pissed off that Gillard has delivered another absolutely hopeless poll for Labor, so your big argument is to just attack the polling company!
That’s idiotic.
Well it cuts all ways
Morgan has LNP primary 43, Newspoll at 46, Essential at 49.
On this qanda panel Pyne is sitting on the end and it looks like everyone has moved away from him. 😆
Re news poll.
Not 60/40 but good enough for a epic Abbott victory.
c@tmomma
Sorry about the dodgy court level advice.
confessions,
Yes indeedy I did make it to the Ashby Slipper case. 🙂
I wrote my summary of my day in the rarified, or is that Raresfied? 😀 atmosphere of Court 18D back on the last thread about 2.30pm.
Wow sex about to be educated if pyne is excluded
I have a theory about Newspoll …
it’s called Margin of Error.
This fortnight has not favoured Labor.
Expect an out-of-left-field bounce to Labor next fortnight, which will get everyone jizzing in their pants about TEH NARROWING!!!
Probably me included.
Don’t forget to remind me when it happens so I will be hideously embarrassed 😉
You can always call it a Pyne!
Oh! Was not news poll the team labor poll of choice for two months running lol. Back to normal I suppose.
So I take it that:
– Preferred PM; Gillard over Abbott by 46% – 40%
– Approval; Gillard 29% / Abbott 31%
– Disapproval; Gillard 62% / Abbott 61%
Well that will not translate to 56/44 at an election.
Abbott cannot win the election on those popularity figures from opposition.
The Liberals must switch to Turnbull or Hockey or if they are fair dinkum, bring back Cossie to win the election.
[Stephen Spencer @sspencer_63
Sorry @pollbludger, you’ve stuffed up big time. last Newspoll was 56-44, so that would be no change. ALP primary of 28 would be -3 (not 2) ]
suspect Bilbo is on the turps tonight – also some wierd comment on PPM
shellbell,
I am nothing if not resourceful when faced with turning around and going straight back home again! 😀
Next week on QandA all Olympic stuff plus Bill Shorten vs John Alexander – that’ll be a slaughter!
The 2PP is undoubtedly reliable. I’d be less confident on the primaries (Labor 28 against Essential’s 33 is a bit wide for a near convergence on 2PP).
I assume News Ltd don’t tinker with them because Nielsen was going something like that a while back, but I think it must have something to do with the inferences drawn from some of the waverers.
Response I did to spur from the previous thread
[Gorgeous Dunny
Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 at 10:25 pm | Permalink
spur212
Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 at 10:11 pm | Permalink
28% Primary
Whether you think Rudd will return or not, you can’t possibly say the PM can survive this sort of polling.
If it’s not Rudd, Shorten or Smith do have the power to gain the numbers to make things happen]
A panic attack now simply hands the agenda to Abbott-Credlin. The government is getting things done. It’s economic record is outstanding among developed countries in the world.
The polls ain’t going to turn around magically overnight. Might have even got off to a reasonable start with nobody going broke from carbon pricing if Fitzgibbon hadn’t set the Ruddstoration hares running in an otherwise good period.
You can have your panic attack around the end of the year if things haven’t improved
[Space Kidette @SpaceKidette
Caro told me to call a vagina a vagina. So I look at Pyne and say “Hello Vagina.” #qanda ]
Centre
PPM – Abbott is ahead of Gillard
I do not like it when Stephen Koukoulas says things like this:
c@tmomma,
It is my belief that the spanish banks are on a knife edge.
The fact that Abbott is ahead of Gillard as PPM means she is not up to it.
How could anymore be less popular than the likes of one T Abbott?
I predict November/December the long knives will come out…that’s if she’s lucky.