James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
Preselection news:
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.
Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.
Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.
Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.
BH
Don’t worry, they’re all a stupid waste of time.
There should be no polling outside an election year. They should just let the government govern and talk about policies.
If it’s not the polls it’s leadership. If it’s not leadership it’s Slipper and Thomsen. If it’s not not Slipper and Thomsen it’s how the PM dresses.
It’s a joke!
[Showson
Abbott and his crew get away with implementing levies. Therefore they should be able to get the public on board with this very important reform. Of course, if Labor were to do so, it would be a disaster.]
Yeah, Idiot Newman didn’t seem to understand that all the states and territories could support the plan, but Tony Abbott would just outright oppose it!
One of the funniest parts of the last election campaign was when Joe Hockeynomics tried to convince us that the coalition’s paid parental leave levy would be “temporary because it is a levy”. He seemed to be assuming that we had all forgotten about the Medicare levy which we have now had for 28 years, or about 25% of the time Australia has existed as a nation.
[ He said the Premiers played politics and Lost. ]
There would be a few premiers scratching their heads trying to work out how the fk Abbott has gotten away with it for years.
[There should be no polling outside an election year. They should just let the government govern and talk about policies.]
You wouldn’t be saying this if the polls were consistently 55/45 in Labor’s favour.
BH
I’ve been rung many times by Newpoll and other pollsters and they ALWAYS want a male between 18 and 39. I find it hard to believe that they have always reached their quota for females before they get to me.
Cmon Broughy!
I received email from Simon Sheikh. This is the first sentence. Curious if entering politics is what comes next.
[I wanted to let you know that I have decided the time is right to step down as National Director. Of course, GetUp will continue its work, and I can’t wait to see what comes next]
Boerwar at 5594
Agreed 😉
Glen,
In some ways it would be good for Brough to win pre selection.
Imagine the fun and games Labor will have as more allegations and information emerges from the Ashby/Slipper matter. Would be a huge distraction for Abbott and his campaign to be constantly answering questions on this issue.
GS
If Brough gets selected, I will be laughing for a week
BB @ 5472,
Fine by me. So, The game’s afoot!
Newman has acted like a Little Ceasar,and a damn crass one at that,Qld is one state,and barnyard gets no credit ae all , no matter what either of them now do.
I’m sure that CanDo’s intention is to get all of the nasties out of the way early in the term so people have forgotten about them by the time of the next election.
That’s what Anna Bilgh did with the fuel subsidy and selling state assets. Worked out pretty well for her didn’t it?
I have always held the view that polls are next to meaningless outside an election year.
Why have them?
Surely the performance of the government and the opposition should be judged on their ACTUAL record.
centre
they probably have these media agenda bias polls to see how many gullible people there are, who falls for the media crap each week
Brough could get pre selected, as they do thinks different in Qld, the little ceasar flaunts that
Never followed polls, but thought polls were every three months, until media decided on regime change.
When will Ghosty post who won the pre-selection??
Meguire Bob
Of course.
Polls are a scoresheet of the mainstream media propaganda.
So I just did the “I side with” US Presidential candidate quiz. Jill Stein (Green) just narrowly beat out Barack Obama, with Stewart Alexander (Socialist) coming a close third.
I always skew much further left on those things than I am. Mind you, it is an American quiz and some of our norms (eg healthcare) are socialist ideas to them.
http://www.isidewith.com/
[I’m sure that CanDo’s intention is to get all of the nasties out of the way early in the term so people have forgotten about them by the time of the next election.]
Sure, but on the other hand his inability to find some funding for the NDIS shows a completely warped sense of priorities.
A disability insurance scheme is a core thing that governments should do, because there’s no way in hell it would ever be done by the private sector. And disability support organisations simply can’t provide enough services based on private and public donations.
So for Newman to say that QLD can’t afford to chip in and do a bit more shows that he has no understanding if what governments should and shouldn’t do.
Go Brough! Bring the dull and overrated back to Canberra!
[That’s what Anna Bilgh did with the fuel subsidy and selling state assets. Worked out pretty well for her didn’t it?]
Talking to a couple of guys who are Labor voters in Queensland the above reasons and time for a change were the reasons they voted out Labor.
[ Leo Posted at 7:24 AM Today
And currently in Spain, people are counting there blessings they don’t live in Qld. ]
Queensland :green:
[So I just did the “I side with” US Presidential candidate quiz. Jill Stein (Green) just narrowly beat out Barack Obama, with Stewart Alexander (Socialist) coming a close third.
I was 94% matched with Obama.
Can anyone advise do pollsters only ring landlines? If so aren’t the polls skewered in favor of older/more conservative voters? Most younger people use only mobiles. Also which polls( if any) use the internet?
catalyst
(a) yes
(b) they use statistical techniques to compensate for the mobile mob
(c) in the long run this will become increasingly difficult.
scorps,
“green” doesn’t work. Check “Show Help” below the comments box.
[If Brough gets selected, I will be laughing for a week]
I bet Mal Brough wishes he’d never heard the name “James Ashby” now.
Once Brough is gone what is there really to stop Ashby’s patrons from withdrawing their financial support.
A $million or $two for a High Court Constitutional challenge over the stealing of confidential government documents? To help a lowlife muck raker like Steve Lewis? Yeah, pull the other one.
The Libs would be as terrified of the prospect of their innermost communications becoming public as Labor, or indeed any politician would.
Even the 1st Amendment in the US doesn’t grant those sorts of privileges to whistle blowers.
Brough has “loser” written all over his face. As does Ashby, and anybody else who got involved in this disgraceful episode.
CM @5620
[So I just did the “I side with” US Presidential candidate quiz. Jill Stein (Green) just narrowly beat out Barack Obama, with Stewart Alexander (Socialist) coming a close third.]
Snap!
BB
Hear hear
TBH, if I were American, I’d vote for Obama if I was living in a swing state but would probably look at one of those other candidates if living in a deep red or blue state.
[But I think it is highly likely that whoever is in government will use a permanent levy of some sort to provide that funding.]
The trick is to extract from the states the actual amount they already spend on the same services and only impose any needed Federal tax to provide the additional service.
Just saying it’s going to cost $15b and imposing a Federal tax to support that gives the states back the money they’ve been providing up to now to spend on ‘restoring trams’ and buy votes.
Any increase in Fed tax should be less than the entire scheme.
That’s the negotiation that’s going on – a one off amount like Big Ted is offering to establish an office in Geelong means not much.
I just did that test, I think I failed it 😯
Democrat 85% (Obama)
Green 73% 😐
Republican 21% (Romney)
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
@CraigEmersonMP Yay, Emmo on the BISONs – When PJK boasted in the late 1980s of a beautiful set of numbers ,,, http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCUQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnational-affairs%2Fopinion%2Fwe-stand-high-on-the-podium-of-economic-success%2Fstory-e6frgd0x-1226436968828&ei=bmcTUNaiKqOhmQW5kIGgCQ&usg=AFQjCNHP4aKkui1x5O273TIzE7kTMIpVFA
[Just saying it’s going to cost $15b and imposing a Federal tax to support that gives the states back the money they’ve been providing up to now to spend on ‘restoring trams’ and buy votes.
Any increase in Fed tax should be less than the entire scheme.
That’s the negotiation that’s going on – a one off amount like Big Ted is offering to establish an office in Geelong means not much.]
But you could tie it in with some tax reform.
The feds could fund it, ON THE CONDITION, that, for example, the states cut their stamp duty rates and promise to never reintroduce it.
If the ‘efficiency dividend’ the feds get out of the states is of similar value to the extra money the feds hand over, then it may be worth it.
centre
LOL!! 73% Greens!!!
Jolyon Wagg
[CM @5620
So I just did the “I side with” US Presidential candidate quiz. Jill Stein (Green) just narrowly beat out Barack Obama, with Stewart Alexander (Socialist) coming a close third.
Snap!]
Snap Snap. With a whole 9 % match with Mitt the Romney
finns
What a fab set pf BISONS. Gold Gold Gold!!!
Adding one per cent to the GST, from 10% to 11%, would just about cover the NDIS. I suggest we have a question added to the next poll. 1%+ to the GST to cover the NDIS: yes/no.
[If Brough gets selected, I will be laughing for a week]
I’ll be laughing a lot longer than that. Esp as the Ashby case continues along.
Victoria
I’m not thinking straight this morning. Thinking the Titans can win the comp and now much more alarmingly 73% for the Greens. 😥
Can’ be 😈
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
@CraigEmersonMP @JuliaGillard @bobjcarr Emmo, the magnificent BISONs on the behalf of OZ say Thank You – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/ – keep it up
OPT @ 5473,
[…fell irrevocably on love with that most lyrical of Sweet William’s plays]
The Tempest was one of my set plays for HSC in 1972, along with Antony and Cleopatra (which also has many moments of utter lyricism – think Enobarbus), Antigone, and The Crucible.
Our novels were Mansfield Park, A Passage to India, The Return of the Native, and The Tree of Man.
And the poets: Chaucer, Marvell, Keats, and Eliot.
(Amazing what one can find on the internet.)
Wondrous writing, every bit, with a wonderful teacher.
confessions @ 5531
Oh?
Where do such meetings occur? Never seen one yet in over 40 years, no matter how tough things have been.
[Boerwar
Posted Saturday, July 28, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Permalink
Adding one per cent to the GST, from 10% to 11%, would just about cover the NDIS. I suggest we have a question added to the next poll. 1%+ to the GST to cover the NDIS: yes/no.]
So, asking the poorest in society to contribute the biggest percentage of their income to funding the NDIS?
Good plan. Not.
ShowsOn @ 5636
‘On the condition’ – That sort of deal does not work – the states have reneged on it time after time – ‘stamp duty’ on GST?
This deal looks promising but the basic is the C’wlth will find $10,000 if the state commits to bringing their contribution for each person who meets the criteria up to $20,000 – how the C’wlth finds their $10,000 is up to them – levy or other expenditure cuts.
confessions
Good point
two ideas that could work well in Canberra.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-28/act-labor-conference/4161056?section=act
Well there you go. For me:
Obama: 81%
Alexander: 79%
Stein: 78%
Paul: 54%
Romney: 1%
I’m not sure how Obama edged out Alexander or Stein …