The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
• Kristina Keneally will quit politics to take up a position as chief executive of Basketball Australia, thereby initiating a by-election for her inner southern Sydney seat of Heffron, where her margin was cut from 23.7% to 7.1% at the March 2011 election. The Sydney Morning Herald reports Keneally’s favoured successor is “Michael Comninos, a former Labor government staffer”, but that party sources have also mentioned Ron Hoenig, a barrister and the mayor of Botany since 1981, and another Botany councillor, Stan Kondilios. The report also quotes Keneally saying she would “never say never” to a return to politics, but she rules out doing so at the next federal election.
• Alex Cauchi of the Wentworth Courier reports the Greens have preselected Sydney councillor Chris Harris as their candidate for the state by-election which is expected to be required in the seat of Sydney as a result of a looming legislative ban on members of parliament serving in local government. The present member for the seat is independent Clover Moore, who will seek another term as Sydney’s lord mayor in September. A looming Liberal preselection will be contested by finance broker Adrian Bartels, who fell 3.1% short of victory as the candidate at the last election, and Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard, who ran in 2003.
• Sixteen candidates have nominated for the July 21 by-election for the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, which is being followed at this dedicated post.
Doyley
You may have missed my post the other day. son is member of ETU. Attended meeting other day with delegates from several unions, including CFMEU. Told members that they have to be prepared to garner support to keep the coalition out of power. Wages and conditions are under threat. Told the membership, as things stand now, the coalition will win next election. Need to prepare and fight.
brian would have to say that after all he’s giving…
thanks vic. have been busy getting the whippersnappers down to bed so i haven’t had a chance to scroll back. the wife is out for first time since breast feeding stopped, i have a ‘sneaky live feed’ of my Reds playing the Rebels, PB on another tab and my best mate and fairfax rugby journo emailing me from london as he watches the game at the same time… perfect quiet night in.
Modlib
[I am very glad that you are not objecting to these data because they show the Coalition leading the ALP on every major economic indicator over the last 40 years.]
What a crap artist ye be. Record interest rates,unemployment,highest taxing government EVA were served up by your lot. Not to mention that despite what all treasurers say we are largely at the mercy of global events. Big bad Keating’s interest rate horror ? A global event, an event where it was worst in the land of Ronnie Raygun and Maggie T. I again suggest you read Mega Georges take down of supposed Liberal party financial superiority. The swine uses facts 😉
Mod Lib
Thank you for your analysis of the data.
It does not prove your statement.
[victoria
Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 7:26 pm | Permalink
Puff
Sometimes I think mod lib makes statements to see how posters respond. I get the sense that we are treated like guinea pigs to gauge reactions to comments made. I have a vision of a Labor operative pretending to be a supposed “mod lib” throwing it out there and seeing what gets thrown back.]
LOL 🙂
Heaven knows, it is absolutely impossible that there could be a single person out there who didn’t agree, lock-stock-and-barrel with every utterance out of ALP HQ eh?
@Mod lib/8999
Stop living in the past dude, this country had to deal with a number of mother nature and man made disasters (GFC)
Pathetic it is.
mm
Sounds perfect! I have PB and other tabs open on my ipad, and waiting for the footy to start on tv. Rest of clan have gone to watch the game live. Too cold for me!
Correct Seasprite.
The Lib NBN Plan is clearly still this “range of architectures” crap they’ve been flogging for years now.
That means fibre to the home for those who manage to scrape in before they get their mits on the scheme then a Dog’s Breakfast of mix and match stuff for everyone else: Copper, coaxial, and fibre to the node.
In other words, no change at all (apart from, perhaps, promising not to Go The Hun and actually rip out fibre to the home already laid).
poroti
The conclusion is not supported by the data.
SF @ 8996,
[Will anyone be ringing Macca On Sunday Morning seeking his views on the great Whyalla Wipeout?]
If they do, and get through, The Great Macca will sound as bored as he always does.
mod lib
It has nothing to do with disagreeing. It is all about your modus operandi
The major networks may not be covering Goodbye Whyalla, but PB is. 🙂
http://www.whyalla.com/page.aspx?u=71
Abbott has been opposed to the NBN since 2010 and is on the record as announcing it to be one of the first items that his government would scrap cancel.
At various times Abbott has also called for the NBN to be cancelled and the money spent on flood recovery for Queensland, the national road system and health.
[zoidlord
Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 7:35 pm | Permalink
@Mod lib/8999
Stop living in the past dude,]
I am very much thinking, with great anticipation, about the many years ahead!
(Hey don’t blame me, you guys decided to stick with the Great Communicator Gillard, so you can’t blame my mob!)
[Nevertheless, it’s quite wrong to invoke “rough justice” here because
a) wildfires don’t discriminate between miscreants and advocates of good policy or innocents
b) Colorado, oddly enough has done realtively well on abatement — some of the best wind resources in the US are in Colorado. Denver is a pretty “green” city.
c) Even miscreants don’t deserve to be killed or injured in wildfires. Such people should be acquainted insistently with observable reality.]
Thank you Fran. I knew something worried me about BW’s post.
He was wishing death and destruction upon Coloradians. That was it.
Now I can get a good night’s sleep.
[the great Whyalla Wipeout?]
Does it get wiped at 12 eastern standard time of central time, can we get clarification from Tone?
Victoria
I am only a student, but if I served up the sort of shyte ML is waving around here again, I would be laughed out of the tute.
Hang on folks, isn’t the Gong supposed to be getting wiped off the map too, come the First?
Doesn’t anyone care about what happens to the home of Norman Gunston?
Where is the Wollongong Death Watch?
BB
I thought BW was just glad the bark beetles were getting toasted.
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Friday, June 29, 2012 at 7:42 pm | Permalink
Victoria
I am only a student, but if I served up the sort of shyte ML is waving around here again, I would be laughed out of the tute.]
I am guessing you don’t need me for that Puff!
LOL :)….just kidding, please don’t take offence!
@smithe/9009
It’s all show, the liberals are.
Mod Lib @ 8999
Well lets go to the data
[ Last 40 years ALP vs. Coalition governments (from Aus Parl Lib)
1. Unemployment rate 6.8% vs. 6.3%
2. Inflation rate: 6.5% vs. 5.5%
3. Interest rates: 4.4% vs. 2.8%
4. Real non-farm wage growth: 0.8% vs. 1.7%
5. Economic growth: 3.0% vs. 3.2%
6. Budget surpluses as % GDP: -1.6% vs. +0.2% ]
Is the post serious? By persisting with such a risible line of argument ML is clearly either Sloppy Joe or Barnaby Joyce
victoria @9001,
Saw your post earlier this week and was very heartened by it.
I am a strong life long labor supporter. I know that the government is not perfect but it is a labor government and is the only option available to protect workers rights and really fight for Australians. Even if some of them do not yet realize it themselves.
Dave Oliver, Greg Combet etc etc are strong advocates and once labor/labour put aside differences and fight together anything is possible. The enemy of my enemy sort of thing.
The differences between the two sides is stark.
[Is the post serious? By persisting with such a risible line of argument ML is clearly either Sloppy Joe or Barnaby Joyce]
That’s all he’s got CO
smithe
The Wollngong Gone Show care of PB.
http://www.goandroam.com/webcams/australia/wollongong/
Did Tone call a fatwah on ‘W’ or something?
Good evening all.
Driving home saw a shooting star falling to the horizon in the distance. Maybe it was a carbon tax asteroid swooping down on Whyalla to “wipe if off the map”.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 1m
Clive Palmer – The LNP has passed this resolution and it should be followed. #libfed
View details]
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
Clive Palmer says the resolutions weren’t about trying to get anyone. #libfed
View details]
[ Latika Bourke @latikambourke 4m
Clive Palmer has arrived]
View details ·
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 7m
Eric Abetz – standards of integrity are personal not related to one’s profession at the time. #libfed]
View details ·
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 9m
Next speaker in favour – we lost a minister in QLD because we have standards and a Premier upholding them. #libfed]
View details ·
Whew, thanks Puffy.
I thought for a moment the Gong had been forgotten.
And Tone’s put a fatwa on anywhere that doesn’t have a Tory MP representing them in the Hof R.
http://tools.themercury.com.au/stories/52799421-breaking-news.php
29, 2012 6:32pm
Australia’s second biggest bank says it’s time to get on board the global trend of carbon pricing and tackle the nation’s emissions growth.
THE call came as federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott signed a pledge to abolish the Labor government’s carbon tax laws on the first sitting day of the new parliament after the next election.
A $23 per tonne tax will apply to carbon emissions from 294 companies, councils and other entities from July 1, to drive investment in clean energy and reach Australia’s target of a five per cent cut in greenhouse emissions by 2020.
Geoff Rousel, executive director of Westpac’s commodities, carbon and energy trading group, told AAP carbon pricing was the “single most effective mechanism” to cut emissions.
The first report of the Australian Energy Market Operator,
victoria:
What is Clive Palmer on about?
Whyalla might last a little while longer because the python works slower than the cobra.
[Alan Stockdale says every Coalition Shadow is out performing their Govt counterpart. #libfed]
Using the ‘how many times you’ve been thrown out of Parliament’ as the measure..
victor
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 9m
Next speaker in favour – we lost a minister in QLD because we have standards and a Premier upholding them. #libfed]
Which in his first term rattus rattus found out was a baaaaad thing. So it is just a warning to CanJoh to “Stop it!!”
Q Geoff Rousel, executive director of Westpac’s commodities, carbon and energy trading group, told AAP carbon pricing was the “single most effective mechanism” to cut emissions.
Poor mod lib
[Blue @DollPosse
Family planning services now defunded in Qld. First they came for gays, now they’re after women. #qldpol]
carbon emissions from 294 companies, councils and other
Especially for rummell
Its so few companies
[Poor mod lib]
Why?
confessions
There were three resolutions put forward
[Bruce McIver wants Federal Executive banned from being paid for media commentary. #libfed]
View details ·
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 32m
Bruce McIver’s second res. lobbyists be banned from Liberal Federal Executive – seconded by David Russell. #libfed]
View details ·
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 32m
Bruce McIver’s first resolution – in pursuit of sound governance and to reduce conflicts of interest – lobbyists banned from fundraising.]
View details ·
SK
Oh dear!
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 50s
Brian Loughnane launching a website full of facts about Tony Abbott for Liberal delegates and members to study and distribute. #libfed]]
Liberal powerpoint:
Slide One: This is a fact.
Slide Two: A fact is something that is true.
(Gasps from audience).
Slide Three: You should use facts in your arguments.
Slide Four: Unless, of course, they’re inconvenient.
[Family planning services now defunded in Qld. First they came for gays, now they’re after women. #qldpol]
Disgraceful.
And Qlders want Abbott who has a clear and demonstrable record of activism against women’s rights to control our fertility.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 13s
Clive Palmer – if I was in Parlt. i can vote on my conscience and wouldn’t be following Abbott on asylum like lamb to slaughter.]
View details ·
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 3m
Clive Palmer – I still support onshore processing. #libfed]
View details ·
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 4m
Clive Palmer says lobbyists on the Federal Executive are acting put of self interest by voting down the resolutions. #libfed]
View details ·
victoria,
This is beginning to get very scary.
doyley and victoria – I love the way Greg Combet says so enthusiastically that he was a Union man and has fought all his life for workers.
He said it again today at his presser and he says it with such a great look on his face – should be used a lot in ads with him standing up against Reith and his rottweilers, also against James Hardie
[And Qlders want Abbott]
Yep, in spades.
At some stage we need to move on to acceptance you know…..
[Does it get wiped at 12 eastern standard time of central time, can we get clarification from Tone?]
It’ll take a few hours… “python squeeze” remember?
I personally wouldn’t care if it was a one-eyed trouser snake… Tone is gorn on this one.
victoria:
I’m sorry, but I’m hopelessly out of the news cycle. Is there some kind of Liberal gathering atm?
zoomster
I appreciate Latika tweeting details of the conference. Although i am only reading statements, i sense all is not well with the fibs
@Confessions/9042,
We did say that newman will get what his coming back to him – it’s called Karma, and Karma can be a bitch.