Seat of the week: Robertson

Roy Morgan’s effort to pull the rug from under Newspoll on Tuesday, as noted in the update to the previous post, has deprived me of my usual Friday poll thread. It us thus left to Seat of the Week to fly the flag on its lonesome. The latest instalment looks at the NSW Central Coast seat of Robertson, held for Labor by what on present indications looks to be an undefendable margin of 1.0%.

One of the happier aspects of the 2010 election for Labor was an apparent tactical win in New South Wales, where a statewide swing of 4.8% yielded the Coalition a notional gain of only four seats – half of what would have been achieved on a uniform swing. Remarkably, the four marginals Labor retained against the trend – all of which were outside Sydney – were the only four in the state which swung in Labor’s favour: Eden-Monaro (2.0% swing), Page (1.8%), Dobell (1.1%) and, most fortuitiously, Robertson, where a winning margin of just 0.1% from 2007 became 1.0% in 2010. This was despite the unceremonious departure of Labor’s accident-prone sitting member, Belinda Neal.

Robertson covers the coast about 60 kilometres north of Sydney, with the Hawkesbury River marking its southern boundary with Berowra. All but a small share of its voters live at its coastal end, which includes Labor-leaning Woy Woy, Liberal-leaning Terrigal and marginal Gosford. The remainder of the electorate covers Popran National Park, McPherson State Forest and the Mangrove Creek dam. Although technically a federation seat, it was a different beast when it was created, covering the inland rural areas of Mudgee, Singleton and Scone.

As Robertson was drawn over time into the increasingly urbanised coast, the conservatives’ hold weakened to the point where Barry Cohen was able to gain it for Labor in 1969, and to withstand the party’s disasters of 1975 and 1977. The seat drifted back slightly in the Liberals’ favour thereafter, and was held by them throughout the Howard years by Jim Lloyd, who unseated Labor’s Frank Walker with a 9.2% swing in 1996.

Robertson returned to the Labor fold in 2007 when a 7.0% swing delivered a 184-vote winning margin to their candidate Belinda Neal, wife of Right faction powerbroker and then senior state minister John Della Bosca. Neal had earlier served in the Senate from 1994 until 1998, when she quit to make a first unsuccessful run in Robertson. Once elected Neal soon made a name for herself with a peculiar parliamentary attack on a pregnant Sophie Mirabella, and an episode in which she allegedly abused staff at Gosford restaurant-nightclub Iguana Joe’s. In 2009 her husband, who had been present during the Iguana Joe’s fracas, resigned as state Health Minister after it was revealed he was having an affair with a 26-year-old woman.

Suggestions that Neal’s preselection might be in danger emerged soon after the Iguana Joe’s incident. A challenger emerged in the shape of Deborah O’Neill, an education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. O’Neill won the favour of local branches and, so Peter van Onselen of The Australian reported, “NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”. The national executive allowed the decision to be determined by a normal rank-and-file ballot, in which O’Neill defeated Neal 98 votes to 67. O’Neill went on to prevail at the election against Liberal candidate Darren Jameson, a local police sergeant.

The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Lucy Wicks, who has contentiously been imposed on the local branches by the fiat of the party’s state executive. Barclay Crawford of the Daily Telegraph reports this occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott, who lacked confidence in the local party organisation owing to its poor performance at the 2010 election and the recent preselection of a problematic candidate in Dobell.

The solution was to impose candidates on both electorates; to choose women for reasons of broader electoral strategy; and to share the spoils between the warring Alex Hawke “centre Right” and David Clarke “hard Right” factions (local potentate Chris Hartcher being aligned with the latter). Robertson went to soft Right in the person of Lucy Wicks, who according to the Telegraph was a particularly galling choice for members due to her tenuous local credentials and membership of the very state executive which imposed her as candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,210 comments on “Seat of the week: Robertson”

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  1. @1945 gusface – not sure what you are referring to.

    Don’t you think it is a relevant question for the PM to answer?

  3. poroti

    outside left threwa curveball

    (suggested it was thommo + some of the #fibs)

    I like it

    😉

    ps the 2nd machiavelli at the end was a ring in

  4. CC. you seem to have no faith that by having our own head of state things wouldn’t have worked out just the same. since we can’t run parrallel universes to test this we’ll never know…

    i would prefer we are no longer a party to propping up the progeny of warmongers and oppressors. especially those who continue to flash their ill-gotten bling is such an obnoxious manner…

  5. That was the Turbinia on the Thames this afternoon.

    Undoubtedly by far and away the most influential ship of her time.

  8. confessions

    [Why are my comments defending myself being deleted?]

    Are you damning yourself with faint praise and in evil terms?

  10. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Middle Man,
    I am watching some vessels go past. I like watching boats. Why they are going past is of lesser importance to me]
    Keep ones eyes peeled for the Hyacinth bearing barge 😆

  16. @1945 middleman – if someone can put up a better system of government then I and most other Aussies will vote for it. I’m no monarchist and don’t care for the Windsors ( although Kate and her sister do it for me) but no system as been proposed yet that improves on our current one.

  17. [i fail to understand how anyone purporting to believe in democracy can stomach a monarchy. they are diametrically opposed.]

    Those silly anti-democratic Danes, Norwegians, Swedes and Netherlanders.

  20. [@1937 middleman – your comment would suggest that you believe Constitutional monarchy is not an effective form of democracy.]
    This is a contradiction in terms. A country can not be fully democratic if its head of state is appointed by birthright rather than by a direct or indirect vote.

  21. MM
    Sorry, I didn’t take it personally, I just grabbed your post out of the sky for something to gripe about. I think the Sky coverage is annoying me. They should be going more into the history of the vessels etc instead of this fluff stuff.

  24. There were was a Flower Class Corvette called Hyacinth.

    How about HMAS Hyacinth Bouquet?

    BTW, why is it with these conservative has-been Australian prime ministers of conservative stripe like to suck up to a British queen?

    Why do they set such store on the baubles, the nothings, the Order of Merit, the cincque portery? Do they realize how truly pathetic they make themselves look?

  25. [@1945 middleman – if someone can put up a better system of government then I and most other Aussies will vote for it.]
    If the 1999 model was a president that was directly elected it would’ve passed.

  29. [Because you are engaged in a tedious quarrel, from which I asked you to desist.]

    Did you? I don’t remember seeing that.

    But if you want desistment then fine. I’ll desist.

  30. [wont anyone believe dear leader?]
    Gussie,
    I would not believe Dear Leader if he swore on a stack of Bibles that he was an askehole. He would be lying because he is actually a lying askehole.

  34. swamprat. pointing out who has them doesn’t make a lick of difference to the truth. Monarchy’s are not democratic. now if you want to argue that they are a form of social contract that a populace can agree to, well thats different. and i guess in our way Australian chose that social contract via the referendum. its doesn’t change the fact that Monarchy’s are not democratic.

  35. @1978 sorry Gus but I didn’t realize I was at your beck and call to post immediate responses. I’ll try to be more compliant from now on.

  36. bw
    I would never have voted for direct election. I would rather Charlie and Cammie on the throne than an USA style election. If we had those the bloody Rodent would now be President.

  37. June 15 is looming as an important date:

    – 3 days before Parliament sits for its final fortnight before a 7 week break
    – Next hearing of Ashby v the Cth and Slipper
    – about 5 weeks since the AFP started looking into Slipper Cabcharge useage
    – 2 weeks before the start of the Abbott-proofed Carbon Price
    – 2 weeks after 400 NewsLtd sub-editors get “boned” by Kim Williams. (note “boned” is a technical term used in the media industry meaning dumping non performers)

    So what will happen on June 15? My prediction is that the AFP will clear Slipper, Ashby will drop his case, and the NewsLtd tabloids will print synchronised front page apologies.

    Otherwise, the UK payouts to #newscorpse hacking victims will start looking like petty cash.

  38. showson. i believe it should be a two step process. first vote decides whether we ditch current system. if yes, we then move to which model will replace.

  42. Gus,

    [does william have a Job?]

    If we don’t all mind our Ps and Qs he may well produce a Jeremiad to afflict us.

  45. @1970 shows on – nothing is ever perfect. Pure or perfect democracy has not, does not and will not exist. To argue getting rid of Constitutional Monarchy on that basis is fraught – do you think the US model is better than ours?

  46. the two models bring up the argument between possible cronyism (appointment via politicians) v possible challenging of the PM’s authority (appointment via popular vote).

    i am not in favour of extending the head of states powers beyond the GG’s current powers. In fact i’m not really keen on even changing the title. i certainly dont like president. but anyway… its a long way off.

  47. Sprocket,

    [So what will happen on June 15? My prediction is that the AFP will clear Slipper, Ashby will drop his case, and the NewsLtd tabloids will print synchronised front page apologies.

    Otherwise, the UK payouts to #newscorpse hacking victims will start looking like petty cash.]

    Re your final paragraph – we can only live in hope.

  48. [showson. i believe it should be a two step process. first vote decides whether we ditch current system. if yes, we then move to which model will replace.]
    A referendum must be on a specific constitutional change. If there was a vote on whether or not their should be change it would simply be a plebiscite which wouldn’t actually bind a government to offer a referendum.

    The fact it would be a vote without any consequence may result in it failing, which would set the republic cause back another decade or more.

  49. middle man

    Obviously the office of monarch in a constitutional monarchy is not elected but so can many public offices in a ‘democracy’. I am a contrary sort of “socialist” 🙂

    I think that it is good to have a non-politician as head of state. I think it good that the head of state has longevity.

    I do not think having the same head of state as UK is viable in the long run. If we were inventive we could address that issue. A native monarch would be more casual than the current one.

    [australians again prove they lack the courage to go out on their own whether it be on personal level or social level… better the hid behind history and continue to be subjugated…]

    To go out on their own? You mean follow the example of almost every other country in the world from USA, Syria, China etc etc. How is that going out on our own? What you really mean is that we should follow the crowd.

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