Seat of the week: Robertson

Roy Morgan’s effort to pull the rug from under Newspoll on Tuesday, as noted in the update to the previous post, has deprived me of my usual Friday poll thread. It us thus left to Seat of the Week to fly the flag on its lonesome. The latest instalment looks at the NSW Central Coast seat of Robertson, held for Labor by what on present indications looks to be an undefendable margin of 1.0%.

One of the happier aspects of the 2010 election for Labor was an apparent tactical win in New South Wales, where a statewide swing of 4.8% yielded the Coalition a notional gain of only four seats – half of what would have been achieved on a uniform swing. Remarkably, the four marginals Labor retained against the trend – all of which were outside Sydney – were the only four in the state which swung in Labor’s favour: Eden-Monaro (2.0% swing), Page (1.8%), Dobell (1.1%) and, most fortuitiously, Robertson, where a winning margin of just 0.1% from 2007 became 1.0% in 2010. This was despite the unceremonious departure of Labor’s accident-prone sitting member, Belinda Neal.

Robertson covers the coast about 60 kilometres north of Sydney, with the Hawkesbury River marking its southern boundary with Berowra. All but a small share of its voters live at its coastal end, which includes Labor-leaning Woy Woy, Liberal-leaning Terrigal and marginal Gosford. The remainder of the electorate covers Popran National Park, McPherson State Forest and the Mangrove Creek dam. Although technically a federation seat, it was a different beast when it was created, covering the inland rural areas of Mudgee, Singleton and Scone.

As Robertson was drawn over time into the increasingly urbanised coast, the conservatives’ hold weakened to the point where Barry Cohen was able to gain it for Labor in 1969, and to withstand the party’s disasters of 1975 and 1977. The seat drifted back slightly in the Liberals’ favour thereafter, and was held by them throughout the Howard years by Jim Lloyd, who unseated Labor’s Frank Walker with a 9.2% swing in 1996.

Robertson returned to the Labor fold in 2007 when a 7.0% swing delivered a 184-vote winning margin to their candidate Belinda Neal, wife of Right faction powerbroker and then senior state minister John Della Bosca. Neal had earlier served in the Senate from 1994 until 1998, when she quit to make a first unsuccessful run in Robertson. Once elected Neal soon made a name for herself with a peculiar parliamentary attack on a pregnant Sophie Mirabella, and an episode in which she allegedly abused staff at Gosford restaurant-nightclub Iguana Joe’s. In 2009 her husband, who had been present during the Iguana Joe’s fracas, resigned as state Health Minister after it was revealed he was having an affair with a 26-year-old woman.

Suggestions that Neal’s preselection might be in danger emerged soon after the Iguana Joe’s incident. A challenger emerged in the shape of Deborah O’Neill, an education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. O’Neill won the favour of local branches and, so Peter van Onselen of The Australian reported, “NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”. The national executive allowed the decision to be determined by a normal rank-and-file ballot, in which O’Neill defeated Neal 98 votes to 67. O’Neill went on to prevail at the election against Liberal candidate Darren Jameson, a local police sergeant.

The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Lucy Wicks, who has contentiously been imposed on the local branches by the fiat of the party’s state executive. Barclay Crawford of the Daily Telegraph reports this occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott, who lacked confidence in the local party organisation owing to its poor performance at the 2010 election and the recent preselection of a problematic candidate in Dobell.

The solution was to impose candidates on both electorates; to choose women for reasons of broader electoral strategy; and to share the spoils between the warring Alex Hawke “centre Right” and David Clarke “hard Right” factions (local potentate Chris Hartcher being aligned with the latter). Robertson went to soft Right in the person of Lucy Wicks, who according to the Telegraph was a particularly galling choice for members due to her tenuous local credentials and membership of the very state executive which imposed her as candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,210 comments on “Seat of the week: Robertson”

Comments Page 41 of 45
1 … 40 41 42 … 45

  1. showson. thanks for that. or perhaps a vote without consequence might garner the truth. but th ereason for splitting is that the monarchists used the differences between models to split the repub vote last time.

    you’re pretty smart… ever been in Hansard?

  5. I doubt Ashby will drop his case before he sees the defences of Slipper and the Cth.

    I cant see the case against the Cth going to trial.

  6. swamprat. you are right. the USA, Syria and China a very similar…

    come on. it would be uniquely Australian, just as those countries you named have developed their own systems.

  7. A rainy day with the grandkids playing trains and computer games. Quite literally worn out. Does anyone know if a Nielsen is due tonight? Either this week or next but they do usually try to avoid Newspoll.

  8. swamprat. but my reasoning has alot more to do with the illegitimacy of a monarchy than what comes next. yes its unclear what would come next, but is that any reason to continue propping up the silly charade that has been built on a fortune derived from centuries of violence and subjugation? I refuse to endorse that!

  9. Schnappi

    [Got mixed up with lots wife]
    Mind you Job did have fourteen thousand sheep, six thousand camels, a thousand yoke of oxen and a thousand donkeys.That adds up to a shed load of crap 😉

  10. Monarchs and god… all part of the same mythological claptrap…. are they still declaring they’re annointed by god to be rulers?

  13. poroti
    [Mind you Job did have fourteen thousand sheep, six thousand camels, a thousand yoke of oxen and a thousand donkeys.That adds up to a shed load of crap 😉 ]
    So that’s where the term “jobbie” comes from.

  14. @2008 Can you point out any inappropriate actions by the Monarchy or her representatives In the Governance of Australia since 11/11/1975?

  15. middleman

    [built on a fortune derived from centuries of violence and subjugation?]

    I was arguing for a constitutional monarchy in a local form.

    I was not arguing for a particular monarchical family.

    Lots of nations have histories replete with violence and subjugation. As an example, some of the worst excesses of British rule in Ireland were done under the republican “commonwealth”. A further example is the ‘imperial’ republic of the USA has invaded more countries than any other in the world in the past 60 years.

  16. [Can you point out any inappropriate actions by the Monarchy or her representatives In the Governance of Australia since 11/11/1975?]

    yes, for staying on for too long

  17. middle man

    [Monarchs and god… all part of the same mythological claptrap…. are they still declaring they’re annointed by god to be rulers]
    But but but if we have a president we’ll end up like Zimbabwe within the week.Talk about a lack of faith in Australian’s. Modern Ireland and Germany have a president without becoming nazi communists.

  21. middle man 2010
    Yes. The Queen believes it is her God mandated destiny to be Queen. She does not think it is right for her to abdicate for this very reason. Only ill health or incapacity (ie God’s will) is going to convince her to leave the job.

    This delusion percolates down to some of her colonial subjects who have similar delusions pumped into them as they are growing up. TA gets it from ER.

  23. [I doubt Ashby will drop his case before he sees the defences of Slipper and the Cth.

    I cant see the case against the Cth going to trial.]

    Ashby (or more to the point Ashby’s backers) will be conflicted between the benefit to them of “sleaze around Gillard appointment” and additional LNP players being drawn in. Maybe they will judge that the affair will damage all, maintain the air of crisis, and the loss of a couple of hapless types like Pyne and Brough is the price you pay. Might be desperate enough to do this.

    Even so, I expect Slipper to be back in the chair come 18th June.

  24. Have Modern Ireland and Germany got an Howard and an Abbott? Actually, I suppose they do. :sigh:

  26. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/03/us-france-election-parliament-idUSBRE85205E20120603

    [Analysis: Hollande to tighten grip in French parliament election
    By Brian Love
    PARIS | Sun Jun 3, 2012 7:28am EDT

    (Reuters) – President Francois Hollande’s Socialists are not surfing towards a landslide victory in parliamentary elections this month, yet a lesser triumph should still permit France’s first left-wing leader in 17 years to rule effectively.]

  27. all true swamprat. but still no reason for continuing to support the bunch who like to think they reign over us.

  28. Having fun with Emmo

    @Australian_Blue @CraigEmersonMP The Beatles dedicated a whole Album to Tony Abbott, it’s called RUBBER SOUL

  33. swamprat
    [A native monarch would be more casual than the current one.]
    Not, I assure you, if it were Emperor Laocoon
    👿

  34. @2008 To be opposed to Constitutional Monarchy and specifically Australia’s then it seems to me one needs to argue why it is so bad. One potential reason for it being bad is because it doesn’t achieve good outcomes or there is evidence of the system being corrupted OT interefed with by the Monarchy. So far I have seen no evidence of that.

  38. Middle man,

    I think we should move to a local independent monarchy!!

    I am sure i represent a very small minority.

    I don’t even agree with the silly Australians for a Constitutional Monarchy (Windsor branch)

  40. Compact Crank

    [@2017 Germany is still occupied by the US! Still can’t trust the buggers.]
    The Seppos must think we are on the way to becoming a republic. That would explain their occupation force establishing a beach head in Darwin. 🙂

  41. i think for it to be truly Australian our local monarch should be voted via gold lotto. you win 5 years at Yarralumla – all expenses paid and a team of constitutional lawyers who will give you all the advice you need.

  42. Just on the Monarchy, and getting rid of it, could be an election commitment next time round? Might engage the younger set more than they are at present.

  43. @CraigEmersonMP @australian_blue Emmo, no, thanks to you, PM, DPM etc, The BISONs are awesome – that’s Australia – http://www.thefinnigans.blogspot.com.au/

    [@Australian_Blue @thefinnigans I was gonna use that in Parlt one time, but then we agreed on a kinder, gentler Parlt. Ha!]

    @CraigEmersonMP @Australian_Blue Emmo, that’s our secret WMD, in time, just in time

  44. What will FoxNews make of this?

    [Karen Barlow ‏@KJBar

    Sky News is reporting that #vuvuzelas have been found at the #diamondjubilee]

  46. Compact Crank at 2034

    We do not have to show that a monarchy is bad. That is the wrong argument because then we start arguing if ER is good or bad and it is not about her. It is about us. As a sovereign nation we need a sovereign leader. That is the argument. It can be a titular Gov Gen or elected Pres. but it needs to be ours.

  47. CC. then you are completely ignorant of history and how this family came to hold such wealth and power, OR it simply doesn’t bother you.

    But it bothers me.

  48. More Fox News goodies…. make slipper issue seem rather cheep.

    6 New York cops claim they were demoted for being Republicans
    Published June 03, 2012
    New York Post
    LONG BEACH, N.Y. – Six Long Island cops claim they were targeted by their commissioner for supporting Republican Party candidates in local elections last year.
    Long Beach Police Commissioner Michael Tangney, a longtime Democrat, demoted the cops, cut their overtime, switched them to midnight shifts and even filed false internal charges against them for “political payback,” the veteran officers claim in a $39 million lawsuit.

    Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/06/03/6-new-york-cops-claim-were-demoted-for-being-republicans/#ixzz1wjSJIWs2

Comments Page 41 of 45
1 … 40 41 42 … 45

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *