Roy Morgan’s effort to pull the rug from under Newspoll on Tuesday, as noted in the update to the previous post, has deprived me of my usual Friday poll thread. It us thus left to Seat of the Week to fly the flag on its lonesome. The latest instalment looks at the NSW Central Coast seat of Robertson, held for Labor by what on present indications looks to be an undefendable margin of 1.0%.
One of the happier aspects of the 2010 election for Labor was an apparent tactical win in New South Wales, where a statewide swing of 4.8% yielded the Coalition a notional gain of only four seats – half of what would have been achieved on a uniform swing. Remarkably, the four marginals Labor retained against the trend – all of which were outside Sydney – were the only four in the state which swung in Labor’s favour: Eden-Monaro (2.0% swing), Page (1.8%), Dobell (1.1%) and, most fortuitiously, Robertson, where a winning margin of just 0.1% from 2007 became 1.0% in 2010. This was despite the unceremonious departure of Labor’s accident-prone sitting member, Belinda Neal.
Robertson covers the coast about 60 kilometres north of Sydney, with the Hawkesbury River marking its southern boundary with Berowra. All but a small share of its voters live at its coastal end, which includes Labor-leaning Woy Woy, Liberal-leaning Terrigal and marginal Gosford. The remainder of the electorate covers Popran National Park, McPherson State Forest and the Mangrove Creek dam. Although technically a federation seat, it was a different beast when it was created, covering the inland rural areas of Mudgee, Singleton and Scone.
As Robertson was drawn over time into the increasingly urbanised coast, the conservatives’ hold weakened to the point where Barry Cohen was able to gain it for Labor in 1969, and to withstand the party’s disasters of 1975 and 1977. The seat drifted back slightly in the Liberals’ favour thereafter, and was held by them throughout the Howard years by Jim Lloyd, who unseated Labor’s Frank Walker with a 9.2% swing in 1996.
Robertson returned to the Labor fold in 2007 when a 7.0% swing delivered a 184-vote winning margin to their candidate Belinda Neal, wife of Right faction powerbroker and then senior state minister John Della Bosca. Neal had earlier served in the Senate from 1994 until 1998, when she quit to make a first unsuccessful run in Robertson. Once elected Neal soon made a name for herself with a peculiar parliamentary attack on a pregnant Sophie Mirabella, and an episode in which she allegedly abused staff at Gosford restaurant-nightclub Iguana Joe’s. In 2009 her husband, who had been present during the Iguana Joe’s fracas, resigned as state Health Minister after it was revealed he was having an affair with a 26-year-old woman.
Suggestions that Neal’s preselection might be in danger emerged soon after the Iguana Joe’s incident. A challenger emerged in the shape of Deborah O’Neill, an education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. O’Neill won the favour of local branches and, so Peter van Onselen of The Australian reported, “NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”. The national executive allowed the decision to be determined by a normal rank-and-file ballot, in which O’Neill defeated Neal 98 votes to 67. O’Neill went on to prevail at the election against Liberal candidate Darren Jameson, a local police sergeant.
The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Lucy Wicks, who has contentiously been imposed on the local branches by the fiat of the party’s state executive. Barclay Crawford of the Daily Telegraph reports this occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott, who lacked confidence in the local party organisation owing to its poor performance at the 2010 election and the recent preselection of a problematic candidate in Dobell.
The solution was to impose candidates on both electorates; to choose women for reasons of broader electoral strategy; and to share the spoils between the warring Alex Hawke “centre Right” and David Clarke “hard Right” factions (local potentate Chris Hartcher being aligned with the latter). Robertson went to soft Right in the person of Lucy Wicks, who according to the Telegraph was a particularly galling choice for members due to her tenuous local credentials and membership of the very state executive which imposed her as candidate.
victoria:
I can’t find anything about it. Must be thinking of someone else.
lizzie
Here it is. Interesting stuff. Apparently Lawler’s Two sons who allegedly were school students at the time, were on the payroll at the HSU. May have been working during holidays. Dont know
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/thomson-8-the-hsu-family/
confessions
I dont know who else it could have been either
Lizzie
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/thomson-8-the-hsu-family/
Boerwar
First, I admit that I’m a pacifist by nature and never support war.
Howveer, I don’t think China would bother to “go to war” on Oz. They’ll just buy all our produce, our land and our technology. Simple.
DWH
There is no evidence at all that Mr Sinodinos:
(1) would make a competent shadow minister
(2) would make a competent minister
(3) would make a competent parliamentary performer
(4) would make a competent LOTO
(5) would make a competent PM.
He has demonstrated a bit of policy nous and the capacity to work competently in someone else’s office. That’s it.
I can understand why Coalition supporters would be desperately casting around for an alternative to your mud runner.
But Mr Sinodinos, while showing some good qualities on the training track, has yet to demonstrate that he would be a competitive prospect in a quality field.
[my say
Posted Saturday, June 2, 2012 at 9:18 am | Permalink
Scout dog are you
I am in franklin
And have family in denison
I have found from talking to people, when you mention wilkie,
Lose cannon, only does his own thing, like health pokies,
Pictures in paper,
And i wss told by his staff that i lived i franklin,
So i said wilkie is an independantsnt
Lots of emails about cost of air flights
Other issues
Ne ver received replies.
To some up my feed back has been , issues that get attention
But on tne other hand i think many tasmanians
Dwell on health. Issues
Not the big ticket items, but waiting in casuslty, small things
Ect. Any way thats been my experience]
Yep grew up in Franklin now in Denison – not good practice if Wilkie did not get back to you may be falling in the trap of a politician who takes things for granted
Spent yesterday at the RHH with 81 year old father – our health system is perpetually a mess. The receptionist in the orthopedic unit was copping an ear full on the phone from someone who could not get in. After breaking his leg late year he received minimal support when he went home and now none – this to me is why i pay taxes for these sort of issues. Realise these issues cut across State and Fed boundaries.
One thing I do realise is that Denison is now a seat that is being talked about has not in the past. The rain this morning is a tad annoying as i want to get out in the garden!
Good morning, Bludgers.
Big Sis & BiL’s 59th Wedding anniversary. My little Nit-Picker trivia of the day is that, though EiiR has been Queen for 60 years, she has, correctly (& technically) been “On the throne” for only 59 come 2nd June GMT. One is not “On the throne” until one actually sits in the Coronation chair and is actually crowned by England’s premier Archbishop (usually of Canterbury).
Re BB’s post. Oh gawd, how reluctantly – and only after doing over the PM again for the first half (or more) of the article – are MSM hacks admitting that poor widdle RAbbott has pwobabee done a norty embarrassing thing fleeing the HoR: one Fairfax fool actually referring to ALP/PM’s bad polling in THEIR OpPoll, not NewsPoll.
So the week was a bad Fairfax/OO/ABC/other premonition of a need to stock up on bikies’ full-face helmets for rotten egg protection, unless RAbbott can get out of the bottom of the mine-pit into which he’s dug himself by 28 June, the last sitting day before Parliament’s Winter Recess begins and 1 July is inevitable.
Thereafter, there are 6 CP compo, MRRT etc goodies weeks in which mining bosses do not flee Oz; CP does not turn into a thin edge of the wedge; flood-gates do not open; the ground does not open under our feet and swallow every single city/ town/ venue in which RAbbott, media crews in tow, has prophesied bankruptcy, mass sackings, annihilation; fire and brimstone do not rain from the sky; the sky does not fall; no bridge to any sort of heaven crumbles; neither Armageddon nor Radnarok/ Götterdämmering is upon us, and, on 14 August, Parliament House is still there, with the usual media pandemonium outside the doors as Senators & MPs arrive to begin the Winter Session – and there are still 12 or so months until the next federal election.
By that time, of course, MSM members still employed may wonder if alienating half Oz’s literate voters is A Bad-for-Jobs Thing; then assumed readers/ viewers suffered from an Alzheimer pandemic to dwarf the Black Death, and don’t recall what occurred before that day … though those bikie helmets had better be ready just in case nasty bloggers & their running dogs archived the evidence.
Lizzie there is a link on the previous thread. Unusually it starts off by saying “I am not accusing Jackson of anything but she is as guilty as hell”.
Thank you, Dan & victoria.
I keep getting chap. 6, so I’ve missed something.
lizzie
[Boerwar
First, I admit that I’m a pacifist by nature and never support war.
Howveer, I don’t think China would bother to “go to war” on Oz. They’ll just buy all our produce, our land and our technology. Simple.]
What really worries me is that we are increasingly locking ourselves into any future war with China. We have already made part of the choice by having US marines stationed in Australia. The neocons are hot for our participation. Stationing drones would magnify the extent to which we are locked in.
Australians have become so used to our toy participation in wars that they have lost sight of what participation in a real general war is like.
davidwh
My computer has developed an annoying habit of refusing to page backwards so I’m stuck forever in the present. But I get your point!
48 davidwh
Great idea that’d be!
Mike Kelly rang rings around Sinodinos last night on Lateline.
The Sinodinos facade was well and truly burst. Kelly’s repartee to all of S’s points was so quick and impressive that S was left floundering with a “We’ll leave it at that” and a self-conscious smile to off-camera.
So S is an improvement on Hockey and Joyce! So what!
Carney is worried.
For a supposedly patrician commentator, looking, with distaste, down upon the grubby political alleyway below, while holding the rose water to his nose to offset the stench, Shaun is showing signs of panic.
[The times have suited Abbott and his approach to politics. Abbott’s prosecution of the Liberal cause is relentless and unyielding. He eschews nuance, concedes very little, if anything, to his opponents, and he is in the fortunate position of believing what he says. Abbott rarely bothers to hide his contempt for Gillard. His lack of regard for her and for the government is genuine.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/positives-in-a-power-play-thats-negatively-charged-20120601-1znb1.html#ixzz1waR87fEk ]
See? Abbott is the Genuine Article. That’s why he is so unpopular.
And then there are “the polls”. On the Big Polling Tote Board, the odds are there for all to see. Abbott by the length of the straight.
[… most of the polls this year have shown Gillard with a higher disapproval rating than Abbott, and the history of political polling, which pretty much by default awards opposition leaders lower personal ratings than their incumbent opponents.
…
Let’s face it, if you’re looking to the next election who would you rather be: Abbott or Gillard?]
You better believe it, baby. The Coalition is ahead in the polls, polls, polls!
So why does Carney need to keep repeating this mantra? Why article #4,782 on how…. “Abbott is winning the polls”, if he’s such a shoo-in?
And why does Honest Tony (who is “in the fortunate position of believing what he says”, while Gillard, presumably, doesn’t believe what she says) need such spruiking if he’s London-to-a-brick to win the election?
It’s the spruiking that gives the game away. Every week (in truth probably every day) these urgers for the Coalition, trying to pretend that all they care about is good governance and decency, wake up to the nightmare of a government that “just won’t lay down and die.”
A person confident of his side’s win in 12 months would be discussing their policy, nutting out who’s going to be a minister, what direction the economy might take under the new management, how this might affect the people and “business”.
No, Shaun is too worried to do that. In his calm way, Carney is shouting the same crap that we hear on the shock jock shows: “We’re leading in the polls. Lie down, you bitch! Just accept it! Where’s my chaff bag! YOU’RE GONNA LOSE!!!”
Until Carney receives a grovelling apology from the government that it was crazy to doubt his word, he still worries (despite dismissing the possibility, for form’s sake, out of hand) about whether or not the government just might pull it off.
If he doesn’t get his mea culpa, don’t be surprised to see the same article next week, and the week after, and the week after that.
If the commentators were so sure their side was going to win, they wouldn’t feel the need to crow about it at virtually every opportunity. It’s bravado, it’s geeing themselves up, but in truth, they know the government can win, too.
I’m pulling a little rank here, but I’ve seen him like this before, in private correspondence. When all else fails, he likes to fall back on the polls. He said exactly the same thing to me about Labor in 2006 as he’s saying about Labor in 2012: “No hope, look at the polls, moron!”.
He was wrong then and he could well be wrong now. Carney’s no better at the Nostradamus game than anyone else, despite his apparent confidence in the result.
Boerwar
Do you have a suggestion as to why conservatives seem to support wars? I know those (such as Rumsfeld) make fortunes from it, but do they have any less self-serving reasons?
[Abbott’s prosecution of the Liberal cause is relentless and unyielding]
Carney is so far removed from reality that he’s forgotten that what Abbott is prosecuting is nothing like the Liberal cause.
And Sinodinos is just another Howard Restorationer. He will probably see out a term and then retire.
Scoutdog
Perception is everything.
We have had big life threatening dealings this year with rhh
With our grsndson , could not fault them
Saved his life by staf picking up a heart complai t, arranging medi vac ,
He was in melbourne with in two hours.
So its who u deal with , staff and attitudes make so much difference
Young bacon has been magnificant in helping with sir problems, overall
And in the knowledge of what their entitlements are re travelli g with a sick baby
Evan rang me for my daughters worries
E
Well it’s all over folks. The Great Laurie Oakes has told us so.
And as always his analysis and logic is impeccable. Abbott’s brilliance at negativity (“roonism”) and the government’s hopelessness at politics will see the government defeated, whatever else happens. You can’t argue with that can you?
But wait. What if Abbott’s negativity has a shelf life and people are starting to get sick of it and see through it. And what if the government is starting to get the politics right – which I believe they are? What then oh great one?
Many years ago the doyen of race callers, Bill Collins (known for good reason as the accurate one) declared around the home turn that the great Kingston Town could not win. But Kingston Town came from a seemingly impossible position to get up and Bill wore the egg on his face for many years after.
If Oakes is going to persist with the silly kind of reasoning he dished up this morning he could end up wearing something akin to an omellete.
Good Morning
Here is Paul Krugman attacking Austerity so admired by Hockey.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/01/paul-krugman-newsnight-uk-austerity_n_1562685.html
As it is a relatively quite time, I thought I would make a post on polls in general.
Often when a poll is published there are posts screaming about margin of error and level of confidence etc.
For those of us who are simple folk, the points can sometimes seem a little esoteric. I suggest a simple experiment anyone can do to get an idea on the accuracy of polls.
Lets assume that those polled are asked to make one of two choices (TPP) and that the true figure is 50/50. We can simulate this using excel to generate 1,000 random numbers of either 0 or 1.
(1) In excel, in cell A2 put the formula =ROUND(RAND(),0) this will generate a random number between 0 and 1 and then round it to the nearest whole number.
(2)Copy this formula to all cells from A2 to CV1001
(3)In cell A1 paste this formula =SUM(A2:A1001) and copy across the top to CV1
What you now have at the top of each column is the equivalent of a survey, the average of all of the totals will almost certainly be 500 but any one column will vary from that. You can recalculate again and again by pressing F9
Now you have a way of generating a sample of 100 polls, take a look at how accurate they are. You can do this by copying the top of the columns and pasting the values (not the formula) into a new sheet.
Being random, I can’t predict what you will get but it will probably be something like, of the 100 polls:-
-50 will fall within the range of 490-510 (50% within 1% of true)
-33 will be between 511 and 520 or 480-489 (33% in the range of 1%-2% of true)
-17 will fall below 480 or above 520 (17% are innacurate by 2% or more)
Finally, you can repeat for larger sample sizes by increasing the original to cover spreadsheet size.
If the ample size is 1200 you will probably get 15% of polls that are innacurate by 2% or more.
If the sample size is 1500 you will probably get 12% of polls are innacurate by 2%
And just for those whose eyes have not yet glazed over, the chances of a poll of 1500 being out by 2% in either direction and either the preceeding or following poll being out by 2% in the same direction is approximatley
(12% x 6%) + (12% x6%) or 1.5%
Who said Q & A don’t push a certain line of questioning.
A list of suggested topics was emailed.
All topics in print I cannot read without my glasses.
But this was in large print with red highlights. Jumped off the page.
[Foreign workers- The Government’s new deal to bring in foreign workers to work in WA mines has caused a headache for Labor. Unions want priority for Australian workers but that’s been labelled xenophobic by business . Workers from the east coast are being encouraged to relocate west – but can Simon Crean promise adequate infrastructure to meet family needs? Now hospitality industry leaders say they are also struggling to fill jobs and need foreign workers to ease unprecedented staff shortages . Where are the Aussies? Outsourcing gone mad or are Australians “too bloody tired or too bloody lazy”, as Bill Heffernan says, to do the work themselves.]
Darn
Reading Oakes, I thought he ws leading to a logical conclusion, then he suddenly swerved away to say “But the govt will lose.” I thought Oakes was supposed to be a top journo, but he disappointed me.
ratsak @41:
Well, he’s wrong about this:
That would have been a ridiculous response. It would have seen a Coalition member voting that another Coalition MP not be heard. You can’t dress that up as anything other than base political manoeuvring. And which Coalition member would want to be the one to explain that decision – and have his name recorded for having done so? He’d be pulled apart for trashing parliament.
All it would do is highlight how cynically the Coalition take parliamentary process. Having Abbott and Pyne make a mad dash is bad enough, but at least it doesn’t leave anyone in the position of voting against his own party’s interests.
If you ask me, Hartcher’s lost in the chicanery. He thinks that’s more important than governance. The only conclusion you can draw is that Abbott should never have gone on about Thomson’s “tainted” vote in the first place, as it is an unsustainable claim and leads inevitably to the idiocy we saw on the floor this week. If Hartcher was honest he’d follow that line of thinking too.
That’s where Abbott failed. A false claim about a “tainted vote” for short-term political gain. Abbott’s chronic short-term focus, at the expese of everything else, is the reason why he’s not PM material.
If anyone doubted my character assessment of Carney as:
[…a supposedly patrician commentator, looking, with distaste, down upon the grubby political alleyway below, while holding the rose water to his nose to offset the stench…]
Then this should put your minds to rest:
[First, {Abbott} was underestimated by the government and the political media, typecast as bumptious, crude and ineffective.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/positives-in-a-power-play-thats-negatively-charged-20120601-1znb1.html#ixzz1waXHNVzy ]
See? He doesn’t regard himself as part of the “political media”. They do typecasting. They are the ones who didn’t see Tony’s true worth.
But, in this article, literally the only “worth” Carney can find in the man is that Abbott’s ahead in the polls, stunning originality, eh? Just like every other political hack in the fast contracting ranks of the MSM.
Not one aspect of policy is discussed in Carney’s long article. It’s all “She won’t lay down and die.” The frustration is palpable.
He gives himself a free pass as a studious observer, a philosopher really, when he writes crap like this:
[The Coalition right now is so far in front of the government that Abbott could afford not just to lose more paint, he could go back to the bare metal and then suffer a breakdown in the bodywork before he is in trouble. Bear in mind, a 38 per cent primary vote in 2010 left Labor four seats short of a lower house majority. To be re-elected, it would have to get at least 40 per cent – a long way off Nielsen’s 28 per cent or Newspoll’s 32.
…
The role of opposition leader seems to be one Abbott was born to play. As a minister, he was determined and dutiful but rarely inspired or creative. As opposition leader, his determination has defined him. In the two years after its 2007 election defeat, the Coalition got through the trauma of its defeat quickly, burning through two leaders in Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull.
…
Whether this has been good training for Abbott as a prime minister can’t be known, but he has been, for the most part, a devastatingly effective – if not particularly well-liked – opposition leader.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/positives-in-a-power-play-thats-negatively-charged-20120601-1znb1.html#ixzz1waY1scfM ]
Shaun Carney just an ordinary poll junkie like anyone here, only on the other side.
All he needed, on Meet The Press two weeks ago, was a stern look from Brandis Of The Bailey, and he curled himself up into a tight little ball, asked one pissweak question with no follow up, and behaved himself thereafter, like a good little Coalition fanboy.
Carney is a fraud.
Dee
Surely you don’t mean that the questions in QandA are suggested by the producers 😮
Never would have thought it :sarcasm:
Lizzie – you might be getting a cached version of the IA story, try refreshing
The EMA is actually a good story for Labor, they just stuffed up the delivery – once again 🙁
I mustn’t have been paying as much as attention as I should’ve been during the week but Oakeshott’s bill to try and “help” with the asylum seekers didn’t seem to get a lot of coverage. Getting it through the reps will be a good thing – the vote in the Senate will see Abbott lining up with the Greens to block it and can be held up by the government as Abbott being a hypocrite once more
[victoria
Posted Saturday, June 2, 2012 at 9:32 am | Permalink
lizzie
Here it is. Interesting stuff. Apparently Lawler’s Two sons who allegedly were school students at the time, were on the payroll at the HSU. May have been working during holidays. Dont know]
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/thomson-8-the-hsu-family/
They were school students in a different city, too.
So maybe that vacation job comment isn’t far off the mark.
Still vacation job or not, it still strinks.
ifonly
I am actually curious to see if there is a correlation between lower interest rates and voter intention.
When interest rates went down earlier on in the year, the govt had a bounce in the polls, but when the banks put up rates against the RBA cash rate, the govt polling went down. Now interest rates have gone down again, and the govt gets another boost.
Dee:
Seems pretty blatant to me.
Why am I not surprised!
smithe
It does stink from the pov that Lawler (2incharge of FWA) is the partner of KJackson, on whose evidence the FWA have been investigating Thomson. And two of his sons have been on the HSU payroll. It more than just stinks
BW
On international, stuff I generally agree with you pretty much.
I do however think you badly misinterpreted the Rudd, wiki, China stuff.
Rather than war mongering I saw his role as a conscious intermediary trying to SOOTH the US war machine.
I guess it is the Public Servant in me, but my reading of the wikki stuff was that Rudd was encouraging the US to live with China rather than threaten them
I know you hate Rudd but on this re-read and think about what was said.
Rudd’s daughter is married to a Chinese guy and she lives in Beijing. I really do not think that adds up to a person warmongering against China in particular.
However I do think that a US China war is a real threat to Australia and one which we should be taking every step to avoid.
I regard the US bases thing as very, very dangerous.
@BreakingNews: Louisiana House approves bill banning abortions after 20 weeks – @Reuters http://t.co/jofYDOE3
@whitehouse: Watch the latest “West Wing Week”: http://t.co/kRkpPgx6 & let us know what you think: http://t.co/79Qq3ML0
the only reason interest rates are going lower is that economy isn’t as strong throughout as it looks in parts – I understand why people cheer when they go down but I’d much rather an economy that didn’t need lower rates to support it
in saying that, Victoria is asking a very interesting question re interest rates and voting patterns
Victoria
I think it is fairly clear that there IS a correlation between interest rates and support for the government. It is offset of course a little by unemployment rises ans any unexpected price rises (petrol electricity etc) but in general you are right
my say
[Posted Saturday, June 2, 2012 at 9:45 am | Permalink
Scoutdog
Perception is everything.
We have had big life threatening dealings this year with rhh
With our grsndson , could not fault them
Saved his life by staf picking up a heart complai t, arranging medi vac ,
He was in melbourne with in two hours.
So its who u deal with , staff and attitudes make so much difference
Young bacon has been magnificant in helping with sir problems, overall
And in the knowledge of what their entitlements are re travelli g with a sick baby
Evan rang me for my daughters worries
E]
Yep i agree staff were excellant just the whole system is under a lot of stress. I have also heard good things about Scott Bacon after people wrote him off as just riding in on his name. As usual our health system here gets stuck in petty regional discussions – don’t get me started on the amount of hospitals here – we do not need one on every block just well resourced ones
The Aged Care package that was recently announced needs to kick in for people like my parents. These are the sort of topics i have not heard a peep from the coalition
Dtt
Of course mortgage holders like lower interest rates, but small business does too. I would say that nearly all small businesses run an overdraft, and the smallest changes in interest rates, makes a huge difference to their bottom line
Arthur Sinsidos lets cat out of bag on News 24. Unfair Dismissal will be under attack by Coalition in their secret until election time industrial policy.
Put it this way, any impact of the carbon price pales into insignificance for small business, wrt interest rate rises
guytaur
Was 24 replaying Sinodinos from LL last night?
victoria
I thought so initially but Latika said this morning so he may have been on Breakfast.
[72
lizzie
Posted Saturday, June 2, 2012 at 9:53 am | Permalink
Darn
Reading Oakes, I thought he ws leading to a logical conclusion, then he suddenly swerved away to say “But the govt will lose.” I thought Oakes was supposed to be a top journo, but he disappointed me.]
Reckon Oakes like Grattan have become wrapped up in their own importance thinking they are part of the process instead of the 4th Estate. Impartial analysis seems to have stopped instead replaced by sound grabs or lazy reporting as this is what I believe Oakes has become just repeating sound grabs with the occasional analysis – thanks to a fellow Bludger poster!
guytaur
Oh i see. Why would Sinodonis be undermining his leader in this way?
BB
What planet are you on
What was incorrect about Carney’s analysis.
Abbott is a crazy, ideologue, populist but obviously he HAS been very effective as LOTO.
His strategy of simple messages and opposition works very well.
Labor and the media did BADLY underestimate him in the election campaign. Labor expected him to self destruct, but surprisingly he did not.
Abbott is not a PM’s bootlace – a dangerous PM if ever I saw one and I think the Australian public realise this. This is Labor’s best hope. Mind you if the public believes that Abbott is just the front man and there are actully sane people really running the show, they will probably not worry so much.
Sinodinos is very, very, very, dangerous to Labor because he seems sane and competent – a rare commodity in the Coalition, where Robb looks sad, Hockey floppy, Bishop bonkers, Abbott insane and the rest either weak or mean dogs.
My daughter worked at St Pauls in Vancouver for awhile.
Pretty grim!
She called Aussies ungrateful whingers.
victoria
He answered a question and was trying to evade as much as possible. He said however that unfair dismissal would be part of the mix. To me that means the Coalition will be attacking unfair dismissal provisions. The history speaks for itself on this issue.
@mashable: It’s Facebook Election Week: Here’s How You Can Vote on Your Privacy http://t.co/2EE2gPoX
guytaur
Of course the coalition will. That is the purpose of their whole existence
[Sinodinos is very, very, very, dangerous to Labor because he seems sane and competent]
Sinodinos is only in the Senate because the Liberal party refuses to let go of the Howard era. When the coalition lose the next election and the Howard Restoration project is no longer viable, I expect MPs like Sinodinos to retire, or just be content to sit on the backbenches with no front bench expectations.
victoria
I do not think Sinodonis will be running for Leader. The same reason why Bob Carr will not. The Senate being perceived as not the place to become Prime Minister.