Seat of the week: Robertson

Roy Morgan’s effort to pull the rug from under Newspoll on Tuesday, as noted in the update to the previous post, has deprived me of my usual Friday poll thread. It us thus left to Seat of the Week to fly the flag on its lonesome. The latest instalment looks at the NSW Central Coast seat of Robertson, held for Labor by what on present indications looks to be an undefendable margin of 1.0%.

One of the happier aspects of the 2010 election for Labor was an apparent tactical win in New South Wales, where a statewide swing of 4.8% yielded the Coalition a notional gain of only four seats – half of what would have been achieved on a uniform swing. Remarkably, the four marginals Labor retained against the trend – all of which were outside Sydney – were the only four in the state which swung in Labor’s favour: Eden-Monaro (2.0% swing), Page (1.8%), Dobell (1.1%) and, most fortuitiously, Robertson, where a winning margin of just 0.1% from 2007 became 1.0% in 2010. This was despite the unceremonious departure of Labor’s accident-prone sitting member, Belinda Neal.

Robertson covers the coast about 60 kilometres north of Sydney, with the Hawkesbury River marking its southern boundary with Berowra. All but a small share of its voters live at its coastal end, which includes Labor-leaning Woy Woy, Liberal-leaning Terrigal and marginal Gosford. The remainder of the electorate covers Popran National Park, McPherson State Forest and the Mangrove Creek dam. Although technically a federation seat, it was a different beast when it was created, covering the inland rural areas of Mudgee, Singleton and Scone.

As Robertson was drawn over time into the increasingly urbanised coast, the conservatives’ hold weakened to the point where Barry Cohen was able to gain it for Labor in 1969, and to withstand the party’s disasters of 1975 and 1977. The seat drifted back slightly in the Liberals’ favour thereafter, and was held by them throughout the Howard years by Jim Lloyd, who unseated Labor’s Frank Walker with a 9.2% swing in 1996.

Robertson returned to the Labor fold in 2007 when a 7.0% swing delivered a 184-vote winning margin to their candidate Belinda Neal, wife of Right faction powerbroker and then senior state minister John Della Bosca. Neal had earlier served in the Senate from 1994 until 1998, when she quit to make a first unsuccessful run in Robertson. Once elected Neal soon made a name for herself with a peculiar parliamentary attack on a pregnant Sophie Mirabella, and an episode in which she allegedly abused staff at Gosford restaurant-nightclub Iguana Joe’s. In 2009 her husband, who had been present during the Iguana Joe’s fracas, resigned as state Health Minister after it was revealed he was having an affair with a 26-year-old woman.

Suggestions that Neal’s preselection might be in danger emerged soon after the Iguana Joe’s incident. A challenger emerged in the shape of Deborah O’Neill, an education teacher at the University of Newcastle and narrowly unsuccessful state candidate for Gosford in 2003. O’Neill won the favour of local branches and, so Peter van Onselen of The Australian reported, “NSW Labor Right powerbrokers”. The national executive allowed the decision to be determined by a normal rank-and-file ballot, in which O’Neill defeated Neal 98 votes to 67. O’Neill went on to prevail at the election against Liberal candidate Darren Jameson, a local police sergeant.

The preselected Liberal candidate for the next election is Lucy Wicks, who has contentiously been imposed on the local branches by the fiat of the party’s state executive. Barclay Crawford of the Daily Telegraph reports this occurred at the insistence of Tony Abbott, who lacked confidence in the local party organisation owing to its poor performance at the 2010 election and the recent preselection of a problematic candidate in Dobell.

The solution was to impose candidates on both electorates; to choose women for reasons of broader electoral strategy; and to share the spoils between the warring Alex Hawke “centre Right” and David Clarke “hard Right” factions (local potentate Chris Hartcher being aligned with the latter). Robertson went to soft Right in the person of Lucy Wicks, who according to the Telegraph was a particularly galling choice for members due to her tenuous local credentials and membership of the very state executive which imposed her as candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,210 comments on “Seat of the week: Robertson”

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  1. d

    I have generally ceased posting on Mr Rudd following his return to the backbench and his subsequent lack of white-anting, leaking and leadership destabilisation. Fair is only fair.

    You may be right about the specifics of the wikileaks text but the reason I raised Mr Rudd in this context is that he was the relevant player in the 2009 White Paper. Mr Rudd has consistent form as a war monger (he kept us in the useless Afghanistan War and was rah rah on the Libyan War). He was also somewhat grandiose in defence, as he was in other domains, IMHO. The collapse in revenue of around $150 billion might have moderated his views on defence strategy and defence spending, but we may never know.

  4. BB:

    Carney is worried.

    For a supposedly patrician commentator, looking, with distaste, down upon the grubby political alleyway below, while holding the rose water to his nose to offset the stench, Shaun is showing signs of panic.

    He’s gone all Shanahan on us, hasn’t he? He’s reduced himself to talking about politics only in terms of poll figures. And then drawing all his conclusions – about Gillard’s character, Abbott’s character, anything of political significance, really – exclusively from those figures. I notice he’s even allowed that Abbott can be worse than he currently is if he wants, and that’s ok.

    The way I’m reading it, that article could have been written months ago. It has no relationship to what’s happening in politics, it takes no interest in current events or what’s happening in Parliament lately. Carney’s not even cautious in his predictions. He’s also managed to avoid any discussion of what might have seen the polls tighten a bit lately. Maybe Thomson, who knows? is his assessment.

    Anyway, at least he’s noticed the Narrowing. That’s something, I guess.

  5. That Paul Krugman vs Austerity I posted above @69 shows why Europe is in such trouble and why Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan, and Lindsay Tanner made the right decisions keeping Australia out of recession.

  7. confessions

    Not heard anything so I would expect the answer is no. I do know the GOP has been having some difficulty in making the choice.

  12. g

    The comparison between European and Australian economies is false. Europe was not being kept afloat by commodities exports to China. European trade competitiveness was being destroyed by bloated public spending, ever-increasing public debt, hideous public and privare sector borrowing, housing bubbles, by lax financial standards, by globalisation, and by exhange rate manipulation by China.

    By way of contrast public debt in Australia was minuscule, forced savings by way of superannuation was relatively high and because we had what China wanted.

    The closest comparison is Norway which is exporting a motsa of oil. It is doing quite well.

  13. confessions

    They have a major problem finding a candidate acceptable to the extreme right but moderate enough to be credible in a general election. So yes the field is very short.

  14. confessions

    There have been suggestions that Obama will pick Hilary as running mate, and biden will take Hilary’s current role as SoS

  16. Dareto tread wrote…

    [BB,

    What planet are you on

    What was incorrect about Carney’s analysis.]

    I didn’t say Carney’s analysis was necessarily wrong (although I did disagree when he said Abbott believes what he says).

    But there was nothing new to it: “the Coalition is ahead in the polls”.

    Yes, we KNOW that. So why continually write about it?

    MY answer is that articles like this evidence a frustration in the “political media” (of which Carney reckons he’s NOT a member… I kid you not) that Gillard has not “Laid down and died”. A lot of the other hateful things they say about her – “kicked to death”, “chaff bags” – stem from the same source of frustration. They can’t stand her because she won’t quit. It terrifies them.

    The artillery barrage has been unbelievably vicious, yet she just gets on with it, governing. Articles like this – which did not even ONCE mention anything like any “policy” of Abbott’s, just that he was “gonna win” – show they’re scared. No-one could survive what they’re throwing at her, yet Gillard has done just that.

    I can’t think of any other explanation for yet ANOTHER listing of Labor’s poor polling position than that the political media secretly believe Labor could win. All that stuff about being 8 points behind is guff and they (and I hope, you) know it.

    There have been far bigger recoveries than this in the past. Labor doesn’t need the old “45%” type votes. The Green preferences go pretty solidly to them anyway.

    Time will tell, of course, but Carney’s basic conceit is that he’s above the fray, not like the “political media” (who wrote Abbott off), when in fact he’s just as much a poll junkie and a numbers obsessor, in the context of commentary free of policy dicsussion, as any other hack.

  17. DTT:

    Sinodinos is very, very, very, dangerous to Labor because he seems sane and competent – a rare commodity in the Coalition

    No he’s not. Sane and comptent Coalition MPs are useless, because the ALP get to fight them on their own terms, on policy, logic and reason. Sinodinos would be dangerous if he had something to work with, but Coalition policy is a dog’s breakfast, completely indefensible.

    That’s the whole point of the Coalition approach under Abbott. Talk everything down, run away from scrutiny and costings and policy analysis, and keep the heat on the ALP at all costs. Even if you have to make something up. That’s what works – listen to the people. It’s all Carbon Tax, She Lied, You’re Killing Mining, BER and Pink Batts, Boo Thomson, Slipper is a Rat. That’s the message, and that’s why people are against the ALP.

  18. g

    I understand that there are two broad schools of economic thinking. Both have lots of reasons and reasoning. One or both have to be wrong.

    I just don’t accept that Mr Krugman is axiomatically right.

  20. What a surprise Arbib is going to work for Packer!!!!!!

    I predicted he would join his mate Bitar on the day he resigned his position in the Senate.

    Labor men my ar**!

    Shame on both of them!

  21. BW

    Professor Krugman is more right than the Austerity argument. The proof is in the pudding.
    Austerity leads to high unemployment and high debt.
    The Krugman approach leads to low unemployment increased revenue and thus reducing debt quicker.

  24. g

    So, Mr Krugman wants Greece, Italy, Spain and Ireland to borrow some more so their economies can expand?

    What is spain going to invest in? Building some more houses? It has 3-4 million empty houses now.

  25. victoria:

    Interesting. I heard commentary some time ago that Biden might retire, but not that he and Hilary would swap.

  26. [lizzie
    Posted Saturday, June 2, 2012 at 9:53 am | Permalink
    Darn

    Reading Oakes, I thought he ws leading to a logical conclusion, then he suddenly swerved away to say “But the govt will lose.” I thought Oakes was supposed to be a top journo, but he disappointed me.]

    That’s pretty much how I read it too lizzie.

  27. And actually, daretotread, I did disagree with another of Carney’s points.

    He reckons Abbott’s approval can be sandlbasted back to bare metal and still win. I very seriously doubt that. If Labor picks up a couple of points in the 2PP, they become a threat of winning. Abbott on minus 60% approval would suddenly look to be a fairly oddsy bet if any narrowing occurs.

    So no, I DON’T think his position is as safe as Carney argues that it is. Nowhere near, actually. He stays where he is simply because of the counter-intuitive position of his party in the polls. To be fair, Carney acknowledges this paradox, but then goes on to say that it doesn’t matter (“Who would you rather be, gillard or Abbott?”). IT was a pretty weak argument, and for someone criticising Labor supporters for burying their heads in the sand on polls, he didn’t do a bad job himself.

  28. bw

    Its depression economics. So yes maybe to keep demand up that is what you have to do. Employ some people in demolishing houses for instance. As long as their are jobs so demand can be restored.

  29. MM

    I give everyone a polite Mr or a Ms. Groups of people who give themselves titles and honorifics may do so. IMHO, it leads to misleading arguments based on authority rather than on the quality of the arguments.

    Mr Krugman’s arguments should rest on their merits, not on his job title.

  34. [ victoria
    Posted Saturday, June 2, 2012 at 10:10 am | Permalink
    Put it this way, any impact of the carbon price pales into insignificance for small business, wrt interest rate rises]

    I think that’s right victoria. It’s the hip pocket that works every time.

    Yonks ago someone posted here that historically any Government that can produce two out of the three out of low interest rates, low unemployment or low inflation will be returned.

    This Governmet has succeeded on all three.

    It will be returned, once the relentless spaz attack of the Opposition loses its bite, as appears to he happening right now.

  35. Boerwar

    [Mr Krugman’s solution to too much debt is more debt. Sure.]

    Krugman’s argument is that more debt is coming either way. You either use it keep people in work and ensure the economy holds up so that it will be able to turn around quicker and pay back the debt easier, or you try and pretend that austerity doesn’t make a bad position worse and then watch your economy tank, unemployment take off, businesses go bust and budget go deep into the red as your receipts collapse at the same time as your payment rise.

    Krugman has the weight of evidence on his side. You will end up with debt either way, but one is pretty obviously preferable to the other, unless you are trying to use the situation to push an ideological barrow.

  36. By the way, the answer to the question:

    Let’s face it, if you’re looking to the next election who would you rather be: Abbott or Gillard?

    – is Gillard. Because when she looks forward to the next election, she sees 15 more months in power with the possibility of more to come. He sees 15 more months of having to come up with scare campaigns when all of the current ones have reached their use-by date.

    And a whole lot of things – which Carney studiously avoids – which might come back to bite Abbott on the bum. The Ashby and Thomson issues particularly.

  37. I am rather hoping that we have reached some sort of post-consumerism age in which everyone is getting sick of spending on ever-more meaningless, every more transient baubles. Most of us have more than we need. Australians have saved $282 billion since the GFC. So most of us must be thinking that we more than we want as well.

    Perhaps it is time to consider, for bloated western consumers, a post-consumerism economy?

  39. Boerwar

    I for one can tell you there is only so much stuff you can buy in any given period. Of course, I am not referring to food etc, but cars, electronics, furniture and the like. Even my own kids who vary from ages 14 to 21, find they dont need anything more than they already have at present. That tells me a fair bit

  40. Very risky from Carnell as CEO of BeyondBlue to get involved in partisan political issues.

    BeyondBlue could be forgiven for wondering why it is that whenever she’s in the media she talks about anything but depression.

  42. Raining, so raincheck on the walk.

    Mr Krugman’s solution is a bit of a hypthetical anyway.

    The rate of return on investments are low at the moment. For Spain to stimulate its economy it has to borrow more. The more it borrows the higher the risk to the lenders. The Spanish bond rate is around 6.8% now. Any higher borrowing to stimulate and the rate would go over 7%. Spain could never hope to cover that sort of borrowing rate.

  46. BW,

    Your argument is definitely on firmer ground with the PIIGS. GB with it’s own currency and without anywhere near the problems of their continental cousins should be avoiding austerity. I think the PIIGS are badly constrained by the common currency. When they had their own currencies they could drop the value of these and produce a comparative advantage (manufacturing, agriculture, tourism) to get their economy moving.

    By being stuck with the Euro they are finding themselves in a similar position to SE Aust is currently in (manufacturing and tourism being uncompetitive due to high dollar), but without the balancing advantage of having a central government redirecting spending their way. German manufacturing loves the Euro keeping their prices low, but the German government keeps (or at least is trying it’s best to keep) the bounty. Tas, SA and to a lesser extent would be in a similar situation if horizontal fiscal equalisation and the Federal Government ‘spreading the benefits of the boom’ weren’t preventing all the mining income staying in WA and SA.

    The PIIGS have structural problems they need to solve and for Greece accessing more debt is virtually impossible. Spain and the others are approaching that point. That doesn’t suggest that austerity is actually an answer, just that perhaps Greece in particular and others potentially are just beyond help in any convention sense. They almost certainly will need to reinstate the Drachma and default on their current debt before they can recover. The massive devaluing of their currency rather than debt will provide the stimulus get their economy moving again.

  47. bw

    Krugman was talking about the UK as he was on a UK show. I do not know what advice he would give Spain. What we do know is Austerity has made the position in Europe worse than it would have been if it had gone the Krugman route two years ago.
    How did the world finance the War that brought it out of Depression in the 20th century.
    Learn from that and get the result without the war.

  50. ratsak
    Agree that the situation with PIIGs is different and that the common currency makes national policy responses very difficult, if not impossible.

    I guess we are reaching somewhere in the middle: that austerity would work in some contexts and would not work in others. Similarly, stimulus works in some contexts but not in others.

    I supported and support the stimulus in the Australian context. But I also support the idea of us going to surplus asap, particularly in these uncertain times.
    What I do believe is that consumption on the never never is only ever a short-run thing. Sooner or later, the ‘fly now pay later’ plan requires pay later. Growth is never infinite, which is the basic assumption of Mr Krugman’s model.

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