This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.
With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).
Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.
mexicanbeemer @7477
That oaf Latham and Howard made ‘aspirational’ one of the most hated words in the lexicon to me.
Show me any parents that don’t have aspirations for their kids? What individual has no aspirations?
The differentiating factor is the nature of aspirations and what aspirations the ALP should foster. I suggest the following for starters:
* A decent Public Health System with timely, high quality treatment for all citizens.
* A decent, high quality Public Education System open to all.
* Full employment with jobs and training available to all citizens able to work.
* A mix of Superannuation and Social Security payments to allow those unable to work to live in dignity and comfort.
You get my drift.
As opposed to the aspirations of our opponents.
* No MRRT.
* Nannies for the well off.
* Maternity Leave at a level depending on your affluence.
etc.
Do not confuse these very different aspirations with the fuzzy term ‘aspirational’. There are their aspirations and there are our aspirations. They are not the same.
Which takes us right back to bluegreens “class warfare”.
Furthermore
[“Kevin left Queensland a long, long time ago.
“I think he found his milieu when he got to (the Australian National University in Canberra). I think the ANU is probably the first time in Kevin’s life that he really felt at home anywhere.”]
I think this is anti-academic warfare too.
My Say yes the seeds of defeat
Victoria considering how bad this week potentially has been for Tone then she should be feeling good and positive and with a lengthy list of positives
Vic, relax.
Now Windsor & Katter are on record saying the Courts, not Parlt, will judge Thomson. Oakeshott will fall in line. Minchin ditto. No early election.
SAFE
[Phillip Coorey @PhillipCoorey
Windsor backs Katter and says the courts, not parlt, must judge Thomson. Means govt can’t fall unless Thomson votes himself out the door]
A two income family earning $150,000 surely doesn’t need financial assistance but at the same time they shouldn’t be taxed out of existence but as we know this government has being taking as percentage of GDP considerable less than the Howard Abbott government dod
[Only 30% of Australians believe the ABS unemployment figure (4.9% for April)* while a clear majority of Australians (60.5%) believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure (9.3%) is closest to Australia’s true level of unemployment according to a special telephone Morgan Poll on the unemployment numbers conducted over the last two nights, May 9/10, 2012.]
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Am just fucking speechless http://bit.ly/JEg7fo The poll, the pollster, the public response – the whole god damn lot]
Note the timing – who knew when to run the TV ads?
[Mr Bloyce worked with the former Maroochy Shire Council since 1989, going on to become the Sunshine Coast council community events and celebrations manager.
He was also manager of the Nambour Civic Centre for 16 years.
This experience inspired him to run for mayor of Sunshine Coast council. But it turned into a gritty race, with Mr Bloyce copping much of the mud-slinging.
The worst was a television advertisement after the sexual harassment claim against Peter Slipper, linking Mr Bloyce to the Member for Fisher.
“You don’t expect that to happen, particularly when the ads were authorised by someone in your own party,” he said.
“You don’t expect your name and character to be thoroughly trashed by one of your opponents. It was obviously timed to coincide with the day of release about when the stuff about Slipper came out. It was perfectly timed for maximum damage.”
Mr Bloyce has decided to start afresh. Where he will go, he’s not quite sure.]
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2012/05/11/trashed-reputation-bloyce-leaves-town/
From a few pages back re: Turnbull becoming LNP leader:
If Turnbull actually did become leader, it may actually result in a downturn in the polls for the LNP. A cursory listen to any of the shock jocks shows they (and their listeners) hate Turnbull. They view him as a traitor because he supports an ETS. If he does a backflip on the NBN as well, the wingnuts will go ballistic.
Some food for thought for everyone.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Am just fucking speechless http://bit.ly/JEg7fo The poll, the pollster, the public response – the whole god damn lot ]
I’m disappointed Costello has ruled out returning to become Turnbull’s treasurer. The prospect of being stuck with Hockey is not a pleasant one.
@BG
Abbott is playing Welfare crap.
As if the Liberals believed in the Welfare system they rather people work long hours and less pay (WorkChoices/SurfChoices/etc).
ru
It is all very smelly indeed
SK
I am with Possum. What a flippin joke
davidbewart@davidbewart
amenable crap hasn’t had much to say about kroger . bit too close to home?
William
Saw your note on Maastricht and the orderly chocolate-buying germans. They did become a tad more disorderly as the war progressed, but there was a bit of a feeling in Germany initially that the Dutch were actually sort of master-racish but a junior tribe thereof. Until the invasion, many Dutch focussed on Germany for soft power, but WW2 kind of wore that out fairly quickly.
Maastricht is in the dangly bit to the south of Holland. When the Belgians won the Belgian War of Independence against the Dutch (somewhat aided and abetted by the Dutch, one suspects) a Dutch military person thought that it might be handy to hang onto Maastricht because it had (a) some coal mines and (b) a Meuse Crossing (which is what the name of city means).
There is no evidence that he also wanted it added to ensure that the Holland would have a hightest point that was actually above sea level: Vaalsberg @ 223m.
A couple of years ago we stayed in a B&B in Maastricht. Our hostess was both francophone and francophile, as many Maastrichters are, and, after the passing of over a century and a half, was still not reconciled to having to be Netherlandish. She thought that being Belgian was even worse.
As for the future, any invasion by M Hollande to distract the Parisian mob would be welcomed with at least some tricoleur bunting in Maastricht.
Lizzie
I think the real unemployment figures are somewhere between the official ABS and Morgan numbers although closer to the official number for as we know from Morgan’s political polling, they tend to over count.
I think the biggest potential problem and I may be incorrect but, do the official numbers include people on DSP that do go in and out of employment get counted in the official numbers.
Boewwar 7497 Re Netanyahu and his plans for war in the Gulf
__________
Re Netanyahu
…An elderly and well known Israeli writer Uri Avernery…says that the recent events in Israel and the criitque of Netanyahu and his extremist colleagues ,is coming from important sections of the Israeli military andi ntelligence organs who are very worried
at his policies
They fear an attack on Iran will be catastrophic for israeli…given that Obama diesn’t want a Gulf War in election year with a huge rise in oil prices…and he personally dislikes Netanyahu and his policies…and such a war would have global consequences with a boost to inflation…which would rebound in Europe too
Avernery calls these events,,”a coup for peace”…he believes that Netanyahu whatever his statements has been checked in his plans for a new war
I will post Avernery’s article from Countepunch presently
Avernery …an elderly Jewish writer ..calls Netanyahu””a zio-fascist” and a warmonger
and a threat to the Jewish homeland
quite a blast !
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 26m
Meanwhile, I just recorded an interview with Former Liberal Senator Nick Minchin. He has some words for Mr Kroger….]
Morgan’s numbers have been out of whack for ages, they always over shoot.
Finns
In that case, the Government should launch a censure motion against Mr Thomson.
The Cossie for Canberra/Kroger rubbish has had the desired effect. It basically stopped any discussion around the fact that Abbott delivered the worst budget reply speech in Australia’s political history.
It will be forgotten.
Just like their poll numbers
The ABS figure is a statistic, it is used for comparison. Gezzus wept.
SK
Whilst i agree in part. What Kroger said about Costello publicly today was quite extraordinary. If it was all part of a set up, it certainly did not reflect well. Not sure about this
@7505 – Anyone who believes that Joakshot and Whinger would do anything that jeopardises the longevity of this Parliament have got a firm grip of themselves and little on reality. They both know they are history whenever the next election is so may as well hang on despite the stench. They are fortunate that the legal system is so sclerotic that it is unable to prioritise cases of national importance for immediate hearing – and so they hide behind the innocent until proven guilty meme.
There is more likelihood of a potential election as a result of miocardial infarction, stroke or traffic accident than from the Odd Couple committing electoral hari kari by bringing on an election.
In no way should that stop the Coalition continually lowlighting the incompetence, self interest and economic vandalism of the current administration. The ALP wont jsut be a rotting corpse by late 2013, it will have melted into a stinking pool of bodily juices unrecognisable from the remains of the QLD and NSW ALPs.
r P(osted Friday, May 11, 2012 at 2:25 pm | Permalink
My Say yes the seeds of defeat
Victoria considering how bad this week potentially has been for Tone then she should be feeling good and positive and with a lengthy list of positives)
Dont change the meani g of my words – I SAID SOWING SEEDS! RE CARING FOR PEOPLE IN NEE
D wtte, . Sillt sil,y ststement, hoe many ti es have the good things been listed and not heard by
An one one,,
This began by msm having picrures of people who are not poor complaining, it happened here
I was astounded at the comments on line u der the pictures wtte all said sort of get a life in the media here, there was not one petson as i saw any way saying you poor things
So where did it start, in the news papers, well here any way. Dont know tbe motive of the pictures of wealthy people perhaps that was the idea, very confusi g i thought, but there
May be they herethought it was good to ser just hat would be said,.
Was no greif shown in tne letters i read
But it made good reading, i woukd say hereany way that wasthereason feedback
[Space Kidette
Posted Friday, May 11, 2012 at 2:41 pm | Permalink
The Cossie for Canberra/Kroger rubbish has had the desired effect. It basically stopped any discussion around the fact that Abbott delivered the worst budget reply speech in Australia’s political history.
It will be forgotten.]
No its like an internal bikie war that spills out onto the streets.
Happen to believe pete
[Since I voluntarily retired from Parliament I have not sought to return to Parliament. I have not
sought Mr Kroger’s assistance to do so. I think the events of this morning indicate why I would not
repose a confidence in him. And most importantly of all Mr Kroger holds no position in the Kooyong
Electorate. What possible influence would he have? The Liberal Party is run by a membership not
by factional bosses. I was the longest Deputy Leader in its history. I know how it works. I do not
need to go to Mr Kroger for assistance in relation to its affairs.]
[What is your take on the machinations at play with the Liberals today?]
20 years ago, I’d have said Vic Masons have had a gutful of NSW RC/ DLP leadership and influence.
Today 1. somewhat similar, though for Masons I’d say Business, esp Big Business.
Imagine trying the do forward planning with the current instability. The only policies Abbott seems to have are:
(a) A PPS which will raise business taxation + refusal to pass the government’s 1% fall in business tax-rate
(b) A Carbon tax without a CP/ ETS, which means that, in addition, exports (& airfares) will face having to pay CP/ ETS in every country which has implemented a CP/ ETS scheme – including China – whilst having Country-of-origin CP/ EST added to all imports (inc from China). In addition, having to pay CP/ETS at exports’ destinations adds to export costs, and affects the Balance of Trade
(c) Refusing to pass the Government’s 1% business tax reduction
(d) Scrapping raised (x 3 times) tax thresholds, CP compensation, and the school/ family benefits in the current budget, when Business (esp small business) is looking forward to their flow on effects, especially since the bulk of the cash goes to lower & lower-MC families who typically spend almost all of it in local retail shops, supermarkets and on entertainment – boosting the economy.
(e) Scrapping the MRRT, which involves scrapping the Superannuation component, impacting the Oz economy (inc its crucial wealth funds), the financial sector, and companies in which superannuation funds invest. When you think of it, scrapping the raising of planned superannuation investments has huge and long term (if Abbott does effect his Regime Change) effects on the economy and the wealth funds which buttress ability to borrow on the best possible conditions.
(f) Victoria and New South Wales, both with Liberal/Nat governments, are mendicant states advantaged by the spread of WA’s & Qld’s mining wealth. Scrapping the MRRT also means scrapping its equalisation effect; moreover, if there are any major changes in GST redistribution to the States, Qld & WA could get very nasty indeed.
(g) The Opposition Black Hole is massive, and unlikely to shrink as Abbott demolishes such money raisers as the MRRT
2. Liberal solidarity is fracturing. Unless my memory is faulty, didn’t the Kroger-Costello alliance start fracturing over which candidate would replace Costello, and get Narkier over state preselections (not a Victorian, so this may not be right)
Abbott’s election to LOTO reinforced the dominance of the NSW Liberal (& religious) (far) Right – the neoDLP. Victoria has traditionally been the Libs’ Jewel in the Crown and a ‘l’iberal one at that. Except for Andrew Peacock’s brief return (89-90) however, NSW Neocon ‘dry’ Liberals have dominated the party since 1985, and the Party’s traditionally base was swamped Howard’s perceived need to appeal to the racist, religious (but anti any nonChristian religion) and bogan right.
When you think of the current Liberal situation in those terms little wonder the cracks are appearing in the Liberal Party!
And as Possum would say it is about the trend and the trend from both is towards lower unemployment whilst everyone is predicting increasing unemployment.
I think putting a side Europe for a moment we can be more confidence about the economy than we could have been at the start of the year.
If I was Jokeshot and Whinger I’d be more interested inthe diet and exercise programs of the ALP members than anything else.
[Marcus Priest @MeddlesomPriest 6m
@BernardKeane “sections of the mainstream media that have not joined News Ltd…need to consider what role they want to play”. Really? Why?]
[Bernard Keane @BernardKeane 27m
Tony Abbott’s Budget Reply and why it’s time to start picking sides on assertion versus reality is.gd/9rg3ZY
View details]
My Say thanks for clarifying, sorry for mis-reading your words
OPT
I wonder why it has taken so long for the cracks to appear
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 4m
Kind of thinking Cossie comes out of this looking better than Kroger, no?]
m
Ah. Europe. There is raised concern at this very moment also about the most recent job figures in the US and the slowdown in the rate of China’s growth. China has just relaxed capital adequacy rules for its banks to free up capital to the tune of around $65 billion, presumably by way of stoking the economic fires just a bit more.
I suggest that there are more fingers crossed than uncrossed, globally.
Latika Bourke @latikambourke 4m
Kind of thinking Cossie comes out of this looking better than Kroger, no?
No
Michael Kroger and Kooyong
I recall and I only read it in the media but many years ago Micheal’s then wife Anne Peacock, daughter of Andrew Peacock had her application to join a Liberal branch knocked back partly because the branch didn’t like her hubby.
I just could never image the daughter or son of a former ALP leader ever being knocked back from joining a local branch within the seat
I see that CC is exposing the inner CC. Not a pretty sight.
I did say the Kroger thing seemed to stem back to his ex wife’s loss of her Senate spot.
zoomster
Although Kroger said in his interview that it had nothing to do with his ex wife.
The Kouk provides an excellent dissection of Abbott’s Budget response.
http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/1973-the-abbott-fact-check-other-matters
Boer War re 7497 and 7528
________
Uri Avernery on Netanyahu and war
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/05/04/the-man-with-messianic-tendencies/
mexicanbeemer @ 7517
I think it is actually more likely to be higher than Morgan’s figure than lower if you are using the sort of common sense definition the average person would.
The ABS figures are correct according to the International Standards, but the definition used by those would not be taken seriously by most people. e.g. 1 hours work in a week makes you employed.
Check out what Professor Bill Mitchell has to say for example:
Australian labour market – converting unemployment into hidden unemployment
His interview with Waleed Aly on RN Drive is also available to listen to on the ABC website.
I scroll past the little crank generally, but I have been enlightened today on the identification of thoughtlessness and ignorance by his posts.
(r the future, any invasion by M Hollande to distract the Parisian mob would be welcomed w bunting in Maastricht.)
My mother in laws, grandmother was french, , oh was born in the area of brabant, its also the name ofour property, grand mother came to holland to maasticht
She mentioned often i can still hear the accent, we went to a spot where the underground hid
In the forest and put one foot in the low land 🙂 one in belguimn
How did Peter Reith know the ABC were running the story on Costello. Is he that cosy in their studios.
It’s interesting, isn’t it, that all this Lib angst is coming out now, don’t you think?
For mine, I think it is fairly obvious that they are split into 3 factions:
* the “all the way with AJA” faction;
* the more sensible “in your guts, you know he’s nuts, but while we’re ahead in the polls …” faction, and
* the eminently more sensible again “shit, the punters hate him and our support looks a bit soft, but who else is there?” faction.
The agitation, judging by today’s shenanigans, seems to be between the latter 2 factions. Even Kroger’s support for Abbott seemed to be more about calling Costello a drongo than really singing Abbott’s praises.
I suspect the real reason Abbott has been AWOL for a lot of the past few days is that he has been busy putting out spot fires in his own party. Unfortunately for him, Costellogate blew up quicker than anyone would have been anticipating.
Re Liberal Party Leadership
There is always leadership talk in political parties. It just happens that they only occasionally become public.
Abbot was given the leadership because no one else wanted it. The other possible contenders thought he was another transitional leader who would lose the 2010 election and could be expected to fall before the true leader would emerge to win the election in 2013. He was at that stage labeled ‘unelectable’. Abbott through almost superhuman persistence and the ability to stay on message has done much better than anyone, except himself, imagined.
The potential contenders for the leadership must now be worried he will win.
Turnbull would love to be leader again, and probably has the talent to do a good job, but a large part of the party cannot stomach him and although he may give them a short term boost in the polls many of them would almost prefer to lose than to have him as PM. He knows this and I suspect it burns. (Much like Rudd). I cannot imagine any realistic scenario where Turnbull becomes PM.
Hockey wants to be PM. Over the last years he has attempted to position himself as a more acceptable potential PM than Abbott. He knows that if Abbott wins the election he will be left in the position that Costello found himself in; the man next in line but never getting the job. If the opposition starts to see an erosion of its lead Hockey will destabilize Abbott and challenge. If the Government survives until 2013 you could expect a challenge in Nov/Dec this year. If he does not challenge then he will have to face the fact he will never be PM.
There are many others who fancy themselves as a future PM, with the baton in the knapsack, who will continue to maneuver, position and dream and dream and dream.