Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.

With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).

Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,724 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
    Lib Senator Mitch Fifield ‘Nothing Michael Kroger says will detract from Peter Costello’s outstanding record.’]

    [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2m
    Mitch Fifield ‘It is very disappointing that Michael Kroger has chosen to attack Peter Costello. We should honour the heroes of our Party’]

  2. I always thought Abbott & Costello were joined at the hip. After all, aren’t “Cossies” just another name for “Budgie Smugglers”?

    😆

  3. my say, this budget has been very well received by the business. the CEO of NAB was praising it this morning.

    One concern that business had was the $45B “cuts” could take the economy into recession.

    But hey presto, via Swannie’s magic tricks, they discover this budget, via #SchoolKidBonus etc, is actually expansionary rather contraction. Almost like the GFC Stimulus Mark 3.

    Clever man Swannie.

  4. I think Kroger is right about one thing. Costello strikes me as a complete bore. Fancy having to sit through lunch with him. Pompous git.

  5. Rumour is Kroger asked Costello to help with his ex-wife’s senate pre-selection and Costello refused. Kroger has form after he basically knifed Howard in 2007 which didn’t help Howard’s diminishing re-election chances.

  6. Been thinking about Thomson who is going to speak with Oakes tomorrow. I suspect he is going to dump on Kathy Jackson et al. Cant see any other reason for him to speak with Oakes tomorrow, considering he is making a statement to Parliament week after next.

  7. (One concern that business had was the $45B “cuts” could take the economy into recession.

    But hey presto, via Swannie’s magic tricks, they discover this budget, via #SchoolKidBonus etc, is actually expansionary rather contraction. Almost like the GFC Stimulus Mark 3.)

    Gosh i had not thought of that,
    You are just as clever

  8. (One concern that business had was the $45B “cuts” could take the economy into recession.

    But hey presto, via Swannie’s magic tricks, they discover this budget, via #SchoolKidBonus etc, is actually expansionary rather contraction. Almost like the GFC Stimulus Mark 3.)

    Gosh i had not thought of that,
    You are just as clever…

  9. Lynchpin: that is the odd part. Also, to do it so publicly.

    BUT, look closely at what Kroger said. He actually PRAISED Costello to the hilt as well; reminding him what a great Treasurer he was. He also contradicted the much-accepted meme that Costello actually DID have the numbers to take on Howard at one point but just didn’t have the ticker to do it.

    In terms of all the “Costello is bitter” stuff, people have been saying these things about Costello for years. Kroger hasn’t disclosed anything that isn’t already out there. The journos know all this, so if they say they’re surprised to hear this about Costello they’re lying their arses off.

    Also, look at the response from Costello. Brimming with praise for Kroger about his years of service to the party. Expressing “disappointment” at his statements.

    Now, if it was a real, visceral hatred, you’d get the sort of thing that came out of Swannie’s mouth a couple of months ago. THAT is a relationship damaged beyond repair.

    To me, this seems more like … play acting almost.

    Look at the players coming out of the woodwork and listen to what they are saying. This isn’t just about Costello and Kroger; increasingly Abbott’s name is being evoked in arguments about whether or not he is economically illiterate. It is playing right into Labor’s hands and making Abbott look weak and ineffectual.

    I just think there is much more to this than meets the eye … time will tell, I suppose.

  10. Oz Pol Tragic@7306,
    Sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner about the Katter matter.
    As your detailed history and submitted birthdate for Bleijie suggests, it probably wasn’t the current AG of Queensland who was behind the attempt to take down BobKat. 🙂

  11. [Can the Parliament vote Abbott out for 14 days for willfully misleading?]

    14 sitting days? Brilliant. Chuck him on May 24th and he won’t be back till mid-August. Government could stop worrying about the numbers!

  12. Kevin Rudd ‏ @KRuddMP
    Tony Abbott’s view of the world, as he says in his own book: “Overwhelmingly, the modern world is one that’s been made in English” KRudd

    Nice one Kevin!

  13. [it probably wasn’t the current AG of Queensland who was behind the attempt to take down BobKat.]

    I’d go for the one before him; though he was elected to Parliament in 1986, before which he was Deputy Mayor of Brisbane.

    Not that that mattered much after Joh & his Nats gazumped the Libs in 1983; slaughtered them in the election, leaving them with 8 seats – then the 2 sleaziest, Lane & Austen (both later jailed for raiding their expense accounts for private use) defected to Joh, leaving 6 seats. The Joh Liberal wipeout took with it cleanskins like Lew Edwards (retired in 83) & Bill Knox (ret 88 – after Joh was rolled).

  14. HI GUYS AND GIRLS! HOW IS SPEED DATING FRIDAY GOING?

    HAVE KROGER, M AND COSTELLO, P TURNED UP YET TO SETTLE THEIR DIFFERENCES?

  15. I could not find much wrong with what mr thompson said in the news.
    It was more what abbott said, and his disrespect,
    Calling the wtte whstdoes s h e know,

    Tory tony tbe most disrespecable pm in our history.

    Notice the new image off with the floro jackets, i would say this is the plan,

    Last year fluro jacket and slim bathers,
    This year its suits, chating to children in stores schools,
    whats next years

    Any ideas

  16. 43% SAY IT IS AVERAGE & ONLY 19% GOOD

    62 percent i have filledi or been ask about different things and i often put aversge, even if i think its good

    So thats actualy good result

  17. Tory tony would be if he was
    be most disrespecable pm in our history.

    So we have to work our buts off

    Dam ipad, commented before i finished

  18. [Australians okay with budget: 25% say it is bad while 62% say it is average to good

    Yes and whats the bet, this is closer to the vote to

  19. Look at the players coming out of the woodwork and listen to what they are saying. This isn’t just about Costello and Kroger; increasingly Abbott’s name is being evoked in arguments about whether or not he is economically illiterate. It is playing right into Labor’s hands and making Abbott look weak and ineffectual.

    I just think there is much more to this than meets the eye … time will tell, I suppose. DANNY POSTED

    That was my thought when the abc here 7.30 stte edition, i nterupted our programe that never has federal stuff

    It was like a had to, i would be interested to know did other states on their state based show
    Had thrust down their throats as well

  20. Things are cooking in the old dart…closer and closer to Rupert.

    [Mr Maley is expected to claim in his evidence that while working for News International between 2005 and 2009 most of his time was spent driving Clive Milner, the Chief Operating Officer – but that he also chauffeured other senior figures, including Rupert Murdoch, in Mr Milner’s BMW 740IL.

    Between 2006 and 2007 Mr Maley alleges that he delivered a total of 17 packages containing cash to ten police officers stationed around London.
    Mr Maley says he only realised that he was delivering money during the third journey. This was when he opened a package and counted up to £3,000 before re-sealing it. He estimates that it probably contained around £5,000 in total.]

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2143502/Murdoch-driver-I-told-Jeremy-Hunt-cash-drops-Met-police-Hyde-Park-tennis-courts.html

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