Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.

With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).

Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,724 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. [I thought Education and Health were State responsibilities]

    And, CC, which Liberal PM do you think initiated the changes? (Hint aka Pig Iron Bob, Ming the Merciless etc). And good on him for doing it! A revolution in intellectual & educational pursuits to match the Infrastructure Revolution inherited from Chifley!

    Lo how far the mighty Liberal Party has fallen! Now it’s all about insulting the intelligent as elites whilst dog whistling bogans, racists, bigots, truckwits, DT readers, Big Mining, Big Tobacco etc these days. Liberals no longer seem to care about installing leaders who are noted international scholars, jurists and diplomats.

    Talk about dumbing down Bob’s dream party & true aspirational vision of a nation as famed intellectually as it was in sport.

  4. Latest Morgan Poll on Budget: 19% good, 43% average and 25% bad – Considering the noises of FWA/HSU, that’s a decent result, will get better

  5. [One is a phone poll, the other is a face to face poll]

    Which Morgan has to treat as equally valid, hence the comparison between the two. It is a weird way to report polls with different methods.

  6. On 2010 election preferences, the face to face poll is ALP 44.5 L/NP 55.5. The phone poll is the same as the respondent allocated preferences

  7. gemused

    [deblonay if you are there.

    I think you should do the right thing and apologise to Schnappi over the snarky remark you made last night.

    Up to you
    ]

    Did not bother me ,have handled children for years,especially modern grandchildren

  9. [Media Release

    Senator the Hon Stephen Conroy
    Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy
    Deputy Leader of the Government in the Senate
    Minister Assisting the Prime Minister on Digital Productivity

    ——————————————————————————–

    Tony Abbott wilfully misleads the Australian people on NBN
    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has misled the Australian public with his remarks on the National Broadband Network in his Budget reply, said Minister for Broadband, Communications, and the Digital Economy, Senator Stephen Conroy.

    Mr Abbott told Parliament that the cost to consumers of NBN services could be three times higher than what they currently pay.

    “That is just wrong. Prices for NBN plans released to date are cheaper than, or equivalent to, existing ADSL plans, but with much improved quality of service,” Senator Conroy said.

    “For example, Skymesh is offering NBN services from $29.95 per month. Extel’s entry-level plan costs $35.00 per month. A number of other retail providers, including Optus, offer NBN services starting from $39.95 and $49.95 per month. Thanks to the NBN, competition between retail providers is increasing.

    “Tony Abbott should check his facts before delivering a national address in the Australian Parliament.

    “In his budget reply, Mr Abbott also pretends that investing in fast affordable broadband should be replaced by additional spending on roads.

    “Mr Abbott clearly doesn’t understand that the NBN is classified by international accounting standards as an equity investment rather than a budget expense. This is consistent with long-standing budget treatment applied by this and previous Australian Governments.”

    “The equity investment in the NBN cannot simply be shifted to pay for more roads, unless those roads are being run by a government business making a return.”

    “In delivering its Budget surplus, Labor is investing in the NBN and Australia’s infrastructure. The Government has a $36 billion infrastructure and investment program, including $3.6 billion announced in this Budget to complete the duplication of the Pacific Highway by 2016.”

    Date: 11 May 2012
    Contact: Senator Conroy’s Office – Adam Sims 0408 258 457]

    Can the Parliament vote Abbott out for 14 days for willfully misleading?

  10. OzPol Tragic as I often ask bludger Liberals, where are the modern Swinburne’s

    Sadly most Liberals don’t seem to know who that is and what drove men like Swinburne

  11. My point is also, if u dont live in sydney how u cannot be in cluded

    If there was a question about our ferry service, how would u answe r that, u could not
    So why have a state question in a federal poll

  12. From now on whenever Abbott cannot or will not explain or understand, he will just say “Just Are”. Like Motherhood, the #MSMhacks embrace.

  15. my say

    Sydney media have the same problem as New York Media. Both think that their population is the average population. No need to venture out except to get country hayseed opinion.

    I think I put it roughly right.

  16. 586

    Boer War re The Gulf
    _______
    I think the comments on the White Hiuse views of Netayahu are perhaps relevant because the President has no liking or wish to support Netanyahu…this feeds into the anxiety in the Israelii military who are not as belligerant as Netanyahu and his F<Miniswter Liebermann
    There is a report in a US site of war games the Pentagon's "gamers"played and they became very alrmed at the likely efffects on the US naval forcces in the Gulf of a conflict with Iran
    It seems the Russians and the Chinese have been selling lots (5000)of new hi-tech mines and a new type of torpedo which can be launched by hand from a small boat…plus a fleet of suicide -manned motor-boats with explosive charges…all of which would be effective in the Gulf's waters…and these are dispersed along the long Iranian coastline
    The closure of the Gulf would stop the export of about 40% of the world's oil in a stroke
    hence Obama's worries in election year

    I'll post the article

  17. My Say

    Also alot of respondents complained about the carbon tax, since there isnt a carbon tax coming in
    Gives the hint of who the majority of being polled were

  18. My Say the thing is that all of Tasmania’s seats are marginals or have a history of swinging therefore they shouldn’t be ignored

  19. Schnappi @ 7656

    Did not bother me ,have handled children for years,especially modern grandchildren

    Righto…you are about a decade ahead of me on that so I may return to you for some tips and advice. 😉

    No problems with them so far.

  20. Lyne Lady

    [just finished great pb meeting – great to meet Mari, BH and Leone + a few others. We had a great day…. now back to the trenches… PJK has really nailed Uhlmann and about time]

    I am jealous. I’ve got to get to one of these meetings. I get to the Minnie Water Area every 8 weeks or so.

  21. get: 19% good,

    So finns if this lot where not goi g to vote labor, even half of them now would
    Lets add them i to the percentage.
    Just as an exercise,

  22. ruawake @ 7658

    Can the Parliament vote Abbott out for 14 days for willfully misleading?

    Seems much more appropriate than tossing out Thomson over things alleged to have happened before he was even a member.

  23. Posted Friday, May 11, 2012 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    My Say the thing is that all of Tasmania’s seats are marginals or have a history of swinging therefore they shouldn’t be ignored

    I am talking pollsters,

    With state based questions. Odd

  25. [Can the Parliament vote Abbott out for 14 days for willfully misleading?]

    I think he should stand down until these serious complaints are fully investigated.

  28. Murdoch Press…The Sun-Herald Melb Budget Coverage
    ______________________

    It’s hard to imagine one adverse thing that Murdoch’s editors have ommited from their endless articles
    Endless Interviews with people who are overwhelmingly hostile to the Budget…even those who profit !!
    One dumb woman was angry at the loss of the First Home Buyers Grant…but she did not know that was Bailleau’s doing
    Reader’s were told it costs every taxpayer $5000 per head for welfare. wrong
    endless distortions andlies
    Mudoch is the real Monster in all this

  30. Mequire i am still meeting people that think they pay they tax personally

    How they even reason that out is beyond me

    Nice surprise comig for them , if they are peensio ers, my aunt thought sbe was loosi g that amou t of pension, to pay for the cost of polllutio n

  31. The AEC and HSU have both mentioned the statute of limitations over the Thomson stuff, does anyone have a clear opinion on this. I assume 6 years ago is when the clock started ticking, but with the AEC saying 2007 stuff cannot be actioned it could be less?

  33. Deblonay

    Thanks. Interesting.

    My original point was that Mr Netanyahu’s capacity to initiate a hot war was enhanced by the recent changes in party composition of the Israeli Coalition Government.

    Your article does not change my view at all. I imagine that Israel would want the US to become involved and that, for Israel, some US naval losses would cement the US participation in a war with Iran.

    Perfect.

    The impact on Mr Swan’s budget surplus would not be good, which was my original point.

  36. Do you know what would be REALLY funny?

    If all this Kroger/Costello stuff was actually a double bluff, the aim of which actually IS to get Costello back in the Parliament and to install him as Liberal leader.

    First aim: once the denials it is happened are out of the way – is to get everyone talking about the *possibility* of a Costello comeback. People in the party, who have doubts about Abbott’s ability to win anything when it really counts, start actually thinking about it. After all, they wanted him in 2007 and in many ways they NEED him now, because the economic illiterate meme is starting to bite. Many in the Liberal Party – including Abbott himself, don’t forget – have been talking up Costello’s credentials and pining for a return to the Howard years.

    Second aim: to make sure people in the party are increasingly interested enough to start to talk more openly about who could be talked into stepping aside. Let it be known that one of your “rising stars” might need to make way, thereby ensuring that attention turns to ageing seat warmers like Kevin Andrews and Phil Ruddock.

    Third aim: actually CONVINCE an ageing seat warmer to vacate. One the vacancy has been announced, wait for Team Costello to send out the call to arms to Peter. Oh, and while you’re at it, ensure you “encourage” polling companies to start including you in the “best to lead the Liberal Party” questions and especially in hypothetical head-to-heads with Gillard for PPM.

    Fourth aim: Once elected, use favourable polling to call a leadership spill. The parliamentary party breathe a sigh of relief they they finally have an electable leader AND an election-winning lead.

    Fifth aim: win the election. Once Costello is installed as PM, suddenly and miraculously make up with Michael Kroger and appoint him Chief of Staff.

    Revolution complete.

    You know it makes sense 😉

  39. So 62 percent are happy, good and averaage, that good
    The bad are out on a limb

    Off subject i am looking out at the besutiful derwent river the wi nd is up the white waves very high
    The seagulls comming in the whit cockatoos doing their best to cling to the gums

    What a site in sydney thus woukd be a 4 million view her e average at 500 th

  40. DL

    Interesting theory. Still does not explain Kroger dumping on Costello and reminding the public that Costello cant stand Howard, Abbott, Turnbull, Downer and others. It was a pretty nasty attack

  41. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 5s
    Victorian State Minister Michael O’Brien says his former boss Peter Costello has never expressed any desire to return to Fed. Parl.]

  42. [Latika Bourke @latikambourke 3m
    Kroger has exposed one thing, Peter Costello’s former staffers’ loyalty to Cossie.]

  44. I really don’t understand why the Libs are fretting so much over Kroger. Is he a glove puppet for someone else?

  46. ru

    If Kroger is making this up. Question is why? He really talked up Turnbull today, and said how lucky the party were to have him.

  47. @Danny

    Costello does not even have to make it into Parliament, the Federal Liberals could do a Qld LNP trick as with Campbell Newman

  48. Finnigans

    Exactly that is what the media do not get. This budget was as much an election budget as the next one. This one sets it up so next years budget take take some big advances on areas that people like. Eg. A big High Speed Train announcement.

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