Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition

This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.

With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).

Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,724 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. I am trying to nut out Slippers position in the House tomorrow. It seems to be a complex interplay of Practice, Standing Orders and the Constitution. Maybe someone here can decode it for me.
    I am assuming Slipper has told the Clerk he is unavailable to be Speaker due to the allegations against him. Therefore the Deputy is deemed to be the Speaker until Slipper reports he ready to take the seat again. I cannot find a precedent but that appears consistent with the rules.
    Tomorrow, he resumes the chair to make his statement before again stepping aside again, at which time the Deputy is again deemed to be the Speaker.
    After this can a vote of no-confidence be made against Slipper who is not deemed to be the Speaker anymore?
    And, if the Deputy is now deemed to be the Speaker why cannot Slipper return to the Chamber as a normal member and vote?
    I cannot find precedent where the Speaker is unavailable for any reason other than death, illness or physical absence from Parliament. I am looking now at House of Commons precedent.
    This is relatively uncharted waters.

  2. [With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).]

    Slowly but surely, the BISONs’ message are getting thorugh and we still got 18 months to go and keep propagating the BISONs.

  3. I trust ltep in all matter on constitutional and parliamentary practices.

    Why are you so knowledgeable on these thing?

  4. Geoff D

    I think slipper can make a statement from the chair to inform the house officially ,he is stepping aside then the deputy speaker takes over

  5. I don’t think the ALP understand Abbott. You need to watch him. For example, when he talks about unions, he’s not criticising their role (he believes in their role), he’s criticising their factional links to the ALP. It’s subtle stuff, but it achieves it’s purpose.

    What you’ve got to do is draw him out on this and put him offside with the Liberal base philosophy

  6. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/coalition-anger-over-mal-broughs-role-in-the-peter-slipper-claims/story-fndckad0-1226348902072?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAustralianNewsNDM+%28The+Australian+%7C+News+%7C%29

    Saw a couple of comments on the other blog, but I really wonder what The Oz is up to, I have sent in a comment asking about Pyne’s involvement, very short one but doubt if it will get published

  7. [Geoff D

    I think slipper can make a statement from the chair to inform the house officially ,he is stepping aside then the deputy speaker takes over
    ]

    The Speaker can do whatever they want in the Parliament. A majority vote can negate that, but anything short of this allows the Speaker’s action to stand. Of course precedents and conventions are important, but not binding.

  8. Sheesh, nearly 1/5 (19%) of Lib /Nats think Australia’s economy has done “a little” or “a lot” worse than the rest of the world. Talk about “an information poor” electorate.

  9. Geoff, it hasn’t really been made clear exactly what ‘stand aside’ means. I would presume that as Mr Slipper is still the Speaker a motion of no confidence can be moved even in his absence, with an Acting Speaker in the chair. I’m wondering also whether he’s fulfilling any of the administrative roles of the Speaker outside of being in the chair during HoR sittings. For instance, is he still taking a role in managing the operations of the Department of the HoR? I would presume any administrative roles the Speaker has can be delegated to the Deputy in his absence, but has he officially delegated? I’m not sure. It’s not really anything most people would be very interested in.

  10. Others have also pointed out the the Speaker’s casting vote in the case of a tied vote in the HoR (a constitutional right) might not be able to be delegated. I’m not so sure about that, but it’s at least arguable.

  11. Geoff,

    I think the situation is akin to some one taking leave because of illness/family reasons. If Slipper were to resign or be removed by a Confidence Motion, he’d be able to resume as a MHR with all the responsibilities and duties and rights that it entails.

  12. [And, if the Deputy is now deemed to be the Speaker why cannot Slipper return to the Chamber as a normal member and vote?]

    Because Slipper still fills the Constitutional role of Speaker, until his resignation. The standing orders merely provide for the Deputy’s ‘acting’ role in case of the absence of the Speaker. As soon as he became present, he’d be the Speaker and would not be entitled to vote, other than by casting vote.

  13. So there will be no criminal or civil case against anyone for using HSU credit cards. But FWA feels the need to disclose the cases ,that it cannot pursue in any legal sense, to the public?

    Rubbish. No wonder they are doing it under Parliamentary Privilege it is a disgrace.

  14. The Libs appear to be spooked by what Slipper may say tomorrow before he steps aside. In his press release announcing his intentions, Slipper said he would make a statement before vacating the chair. TheLibs are currently sabre rattling about introducing a No Confidence Motion agaisnt the Speaker in order to pressure Slipper to play nice.

    However, I can’t see how they can do it before Slipper makes his comments.

  15. shellbell,

    My understanding is that Vex have held over their report until later this week. Their story was to focus a lot on Ashby’s personal history.

  16. The essential pol is really only confirming the other polls. A PV of 27% and TPP of 42%

    Dolphin. It would be wise to plan for a June 2013 election (14 not 18 months). With a PV of 27% and allowing for a movement of 2-3% to small parties in a Senate vote, a PV of 27% could mean 24% in the Senate. If some state do worse (eg Qld WA on 22%) Labor could lose control of the Senate. I doubt they would risk it.

  17. Clive Palmer to build a replica of the Titanic with Chinese government investors: what a great metaphor for the entire Australian economy :p

  18. Just checked the site, this has been posted, image of an AFR article with comment

    http://www.vexnews.com/2012/05/the-time-bomb-liberal-gift-set-to-be-a-toxic-trojan-horse/

    [THE TIME-BOMB: Liberal gift set to be a toxic Trojan Horse
    By VEXNEWS ⋅ May 7, 2012

    The allegations against Speaker Slipper by James Ashby are serious but raise more questions than they ask. The Fin Review’s Marcus Priest raises some important questions about the conduct of Ashby’s lawyers.]

  19. How odd. For a couple of hours there I was out and about, so I had to get my information from News Radio. All I learnt in that time was that Hockey thinks the budget is mutton dressed up as lamb, and that Brandis said something about Fair Work.

    Hockey’s still working on his comedy routine, by the way. He tried out a line about the Grinch and Santa Claus. This is the sort of stuff News Radio defines as news.

    I learnt more from 15 minutes browsing through here when I got back. At least I’m up to speed with what the FWA report actually means.

  20. Based on those Essential results there is a disconnect between how most on PB perceive the Slipper situation and how the majority of people do. Basically I think it will boil down to the outcome of the criminal and civil actions. If Slipper ends up having to face matters then most people wont care much that the Libs used grubby tactics to bring the matters into the open. In the meantime Labor should be cautious about taking sides, refer Bob Carr, because it will reflect badly if it ends up Ashby has a genuine case.

    It’s a very uncertain time we are going through and the politics being played out is particularly grubby.

  21. Aguiree – why not sent a message to NewsRadio telling them exactly that – you learnt nothing of fact from their bulletins so what are they doing towards earning taxpayers’ money.

  22. davidwh yes it does , if the libs are found out in doing wrongful things which they shouldnt have and questions will be raised how can the coalition go into the next election with abbott ,julie bishop as the leader and deputy

    if they get caught up with any wrong doings
    The liberals can not play the who do you trust theme

  23. Looking at the essential poll it is clear that MOST strongly support fundamentally Labor and left wing economic goals. There IS a labor lifeline here is only they can grasp it.

  24. Timeline; Pyne met Ashby 19/3 then Ashby met Brough 3 times late March/Early April Lewis broke the story on 21April. Nice sequence #auspol

  25. Ashby has a case as barnaby joyce more the nhe has agaisnt bob carr

    joyce was quoted as calling ashby dodgy

  26. Think Big

    Essential is a 2 week average. So since they were 31% last week an outcome of 29% implies THIS week it was 27%.

    However there effectively has been NO change in the TPP, which does not seem to be reflected in the PV, so it is a little confusing.

  27. News radio producers get very very stroppy when uring them beleive me

    So has there been muchabout slipper on newsradio
    If not its time the minister ask questions

  28. Schnappi happy to throw Joyce in as well although he is not a government minister who may have an ulterior reason to attack the credibility of Ashby and besides most people expect Joyce to say dumb things.

  29. Oh dear, this aint pretty, no wonder Barnyard called it” “dodgy”

    [These are worrying claims which say much about Ashby’s character, in our view. And it seems his character will be a central issue in the political resolution of the allegations – mostly uncorroborated or in part proven to be false – against the Speaker. Hopefully it’s not too much of an infringement of his human rights to dare to say so.]

    http://www.vexnews.com/2012/05/life-of-the-party-james-ashby-accused-of-procuring-unwitting-young-men-for-hiv-positive-millionaire-mate-for-pleasure-palace-partying/

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