This week’s Essential Research poll gives Labor its worst result since the company opened for business in 2008: a primary vote of 29%, down two points on last week, and a two-party preferred deficit of 58-42. The former is particularly alarming for Labor, as Essential typically has Labor’s primary vote a few points higher than the phone pollsters. The Coalition and the Greens are steady on 50% and 11%.
With respect to the economy, 66% allowed that it had performed better than other countries’ over the past few years (although this was down from 70% in August last year), with 15% believing it to be worse (up from 10%). In the event of another global financial crisis, 42% would better trust the Liberal Party to deal with it than Labor, on 25%. Forty-six per cent anticipate the economy will get worse over the next 12 months against 23% who think it will get better (the figures when the question was asked a year ago were 37% worse and 27% better).
Sixty-two per cent believe a politician accused of an offence should stand down from their positions, against 27% who believe they should be allowed to continue. Questions on banking suggest the public to be well to the left of the elites on these matters: 55% would support the establishment of a government-owned bank, 74% forcing banks to charge rates in line with the Reserve Bank, 81% capping chief executive’s salaries, 92% limiting bank fees to the costs of the service and 59% a super profits tax on banks (the numbers opposed were respectively 23%, 16%, 12%, 5% and 21%). Fifty-nine per cent would support a levy on large transactions of currencies, bonds and shares, with 16% opposed.
How do you define “employed” if a person is working the hours they desire, even if it is only 1 hour a week?
Many parents of small children, for example, might only want to work a few hours a week; enough to help with the bills but not enough to detract from what they consider to be their most important job and that is raising their children.
Who is any statistician to tell them their 3 hours isn’t actual employment?
Just had a squizz at the front page of the DT while down at the local checkout.
Something about how the North Shore is not “so shore” about Julia’s “class warfare”. Get it? Not “so shore”… “shore” = “sure”… well, I didn’t think it was all that funny either.
Anyway, it occurred to me that Julia can let this run for another couple of days – Mums whingeing they’re doing it tough, their little moppets with flyblown sores on their mouths because their parents can’t afford to go to the doctor, their bare feet turned leather-like due to lack of proper footware etc. etc. – and then Julia should agree with them.
That’s all.
Just agree with them.
And then she should ask just why Tony Abbott was trying to deny them their bonus, especially when the source of the funds for the muns, the MRRT, is popular with just these Mums & Moppets.
It may be the time for all good Ladies Who Lunch to come to the aid of the Liberal Party, but if they’re doing it hard on the North Shore, then don’t they deserve a bit of a helper from the government? Does it all have to be policy purity?
So did they all get together and decide to argue, for the sake of tone, unexplainable budget reply
The key difference between Morgans and the ABS is they count anyone who identifies as unemployed. Thus morgans counts those persons who the ABS would eitherwise exlude i.e. those who worked more than 2hours in the reference period and those who wanted to work but were unable to in the next 2 weeks. So yes Morgans does overcount but their definition is probably closer to the colloquial meaning of unemployement.
Fot the record the ABS also counts discouraged jobseekers and calculates the labour force underutilisation rate – i.e. part timers who want more hours.
Yes they are ABS does not worry about things like pensions or benefit status just weather you are looking for work or able to start work.
God, the HATE in the Liberal Party. Let’s see:
Reith hates Abbott, Abbott hates Turnbull, Turnbull hates Robb, Robb hates Bishop, Bishop hates Hockey, Hockey hates Kroger, Kroger hates Costello and Costello hates everybody!
It’s a fair dinkum love in 😆
ABS also measure ‘aggregate work hours’ and ‘underemployment’. I don’t think we need some sort of quasi figure.
Morgan takes into account people who want to work more hours but are unable
You always have to consider the ABS statistic along with related stats like the participation rate and total hours worked. They also suffer individual month noise so the overall trend is important. The other factor with April was the Easter and ANZAC Day public holidays which means people may have taken a break from seeking work for a period to take advantage of the holidays so watch what the participation rate does in May.
[Abbot was given the leadership because no one else wanted it.]
Hahahahaha.
What about the ballot he won by 1 vote? If Minchin and Co hadn’t been disgusting, dishonest game-players and had waited until Fran Bailey had returned from hospital and O’Dywer and the other guy whose name eludes me had been sworn in and therefore able to vote in the ballot then he would not currently be leader of the Liberal Party.
[O’Dywer and the other guy]
I’ll give you a clue about the other guy. He is from the North Shore. 🙂
Jokeshott and Whinger. Oh man someone send me some bandages, my sides are splitting. With hilarious, nuanced comedic skills like that such a fabulous wordsmith should be headline writing for the Telegraph – you’ve got your headline portfolio right there. Top marks. Comedy gold.
ru
I think nowadays Peter Rieth lives at the ABC studios.
ru
It seems to me that Mr Peter Reith has the position of Propaganda Minister for their ABC
SkyNews just showed a shot of Kroger and Sloppy in very animated conversation.
Took kroger 35 years to show his disloyalty ,or is it the other way around,either way seems a falling out of so called friends.
ABC is expanding the Costello Kroger story. :Grin:
Dr Herman Reith?
@davidwh
Actually there should not be any seasonal variation re: easter/ANZAC day as Trend and seasonally adjusted data is, well seasonally adjusted to avoid predictable changes.
The ABS does produce a load of other labour stats that helps in assessing the true nature of the labour force – the underutilisation figures are a good example as they take into accound preferecnes for more work.
Labour force (6202.0) as it stands is pretty much just to employment trends a guide rather than meaningful number because of the limitations and definitions.
They wont change it because – they have always done it this way and it is the international standard for comparison.
I’m just back from the flatlands. Have Lyne Lady or Mari surfaced after their CC Poll Bludgers Chapter luncheon?
Dr F S
Thanks for your insights
Danny, the old Kroger gave far too much away methinks.
Picture: Cossie and Kroger and co, in the Melbourne Club, for the regular 3 hour lunch meeting, where Tip let’s loose on Rattie Howard, one more time.
So Borement!
Change the subject, please.
Where the ‘f’ is the bloody drinks waiter? Let’s talk about the productivity increase, needed, from this scumbag workforce in Stralya.
BK
No word from them as yet
[I think nowadays Peter Rieth lives at the ABC studios.]
The Mark Scott butler?
7555 – Yep, there’s a bit of personal animosity in the Libs, but they are rank amateurs compared to the factional and intra/inter-union internicen levels of hatred.
@victoria
I am just happy we are talking labour stats – oh boy what a sad case i can be sometimes….
The breakdowns by party support in that Morgan poll suggest their voting intention result, which I’m guessing they will publish later today, is rather a poor show for Labor – maybe 58-42 or 59-41. Bearing in mind that’s from a sample of 571 with a MoE of 4.1%.
William I am not for one moment suggesting any Australian polling company would ever carry one out, but what is the definition of push polling and is it legal in Australia?
Would it be along the lines of “do you believe police advice that murder is a very rare crime? or do you believe Roaldan Ltd’s finding that every second person on the street is an axe wielding murderer just waiting to break into your house and cut your head off?”
(I’m disappointed Costello has ruled out returning to become Turnbull’s treasurer. The prospect of being stuck with Hockey is not a pleasant one.)
Gosh thats a big bow, and whst poor bugger dou want to give up seat for cossie
He had his turn
One would think that, after 35 years, Mr Kroger would have a LOT of dirt on Mr Costello, and vice versa.
Both would, you think, also have the goods on all their factional enemies, up to and including Tony Abbott.
This could get very ugly indeed for the Liberal Party. I can’t wait for the next instalment 😆
Funny, there’s a bit of biffo and angst in the Libs because everyone wants to be the boss.
In the ALP on the other hand, if you offered the PMship up to the young turks they would sacrifice their first born in order to avoid being leader into the next election.
William is that your figures with preferences
[Joakshot and Whinger]
Wow! Trying to impress us, are you?
[AUSTRALIANS NOT HAPPY WITH FEDERAL BUDGET
25% SAY IT IS BAD; 43% SAY IT IS AVERAGE & ONLY 19% GOOD]
Ooops. Shows you what Craig Thomson can do.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4773/
Shorter Compost Crank:
“Look over there, a unicorn”.
Danny Lewis
Yes some hyperbole on my part.
But Abbot’s win by one vote was against Turnbull who was deeply unpopular with sections of his party.
Hockey however, was the clear favorite by many to win the election for LOTO and probably would have done so if he had promised to vote against the ETS. He chose to go for the conscious vote and lost in the first round
And this as well William
Link not up
[Latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, conducted over the last two nights of May 9/10, 2012 shows the L-NP (58%, down 2.5% from the pre-Budget face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on May 5/6, 2012) now leading the ALP (42%, up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.]
Deblonay
Israel and Greece at both small countries that border on the Mediterranean. Both, though small, have a disproportionate capacity to destabilize the global economy.
Both have elements which would like to take actions which would have that sort of impact. Without being specific, I was thinking of events which might impinge on the Government’s budget surplus. This is why I raised the issue of the state of governments in the two and not, say, the state of government in Burkino Faso.
Whether Mr Netanyahu is liked or despised, is likeable or despisable, is neither here nor there in that context, IMHO.
Dr Fumbles true the ABS does build in variables to take account of seasonal factors. However they are not precise as there could be other factors at play on a year to uear basis that dont get picked up. For example the participation rate may be more likely to be impacted in a soft employment market.
Bottom line is that the Morgan poll today is somewhat meaningless because they are comparing different statistical results or results based on clearly different meanings.
Why are the Liberal Party so worried about Kroger. They all seem to be rushing to the media to say nothing is happening.
Bizarre.
When was the budget, supplose this poll was the week before, so.
That poll would be a slight worsening from previous Morgan phone poll of 43/57.
Link for the Morgan Poll will be here http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4774
but not active yet.
All this unmitigated joy about Kroger v Costello. . . can’t seem to find what seats they hold in the Federal Parliament??
And b/g
Willliam always changes te figures to preferences i think , suppose this is the case also
William
The result is hidden on the Morgan site
May 9/10, 2012 (Phone)
42.0
58.0
A slight swing to ALP from last Phone.
ALP (42%, up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.
How could it be worse when its up
Is Howard Sattler retiring?
ompact Crank
[All this unmitigated joy about Kroger v Costello. . . can’t seem to find what seats they hold in the Federal Parliament??]
Well newman led the party outside office.
Ru plus what william changes re preferences
You can define push polling however you like, but it’s generally understood to refer to an exercise which falsely purports to be opinion polling when its real objective is to disseminate misinformation about a political opponent. There’s no law against it as such, except that (as I’ve just defined it) the entire purpose of the exercise is defamation.
[How could it be worse when its up]
By comparing the same survey methods. Not comparing a face-to-face poll to a phone poll.
In terms of preferences allocated as at the 2010 election I suspect it would be marginally better for the ALP. But still diabolical.