Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. shootin tyres is a bit ‘tv’…. not sure it’s practical to expect them to hit such a moving target. most cops wouldn’t be that accurate with their Glock.

  2. Diogs there were innocent bystanders nearby.

    I’m sick of people breaking the law in our society.

    And as for criminal gangs and driveby shootings, they should put the bastards behind bars and individually hang every bikie member one by one.

    Gutless fat bastards.

  3. [Why didn’t the police have the option of shooting the car’s tyres? Just saying “we don’t shoot tyres” isn’t a reason.]

    Shooting out the tyres of a car can cause the car to crash KILLING the occupants?!.

    Simple my dear Watson?.

  4. Albo reminded the journos that Mr Slipper was endorsed 9 times by the Libs and was in fact Parliamentary secretary to Mr Howard, when he was PM.

    I am amazed that the Libs are prepared to go with this high risk strategy

  5. Centre
    Should Abbott go to Taronga Park he will meet this charming young gentlemen –
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/animals/allo-allo-meet-the-gentle-giant-from-france-whos-here-for-love-20120404-1wc38.html

    Kibali seems a lot more entertaining and a lot nicer than Abbott, who is definitely not suited to being on display with any of the apes. Apes have morals and values, they know trash when they see it, unlike your average Aussie voter. I see Abbot being more fitting to the poisonous reptiles display.

  6. [I especially liked the way Albo said that everyone must be careful about rumours. ]

    which means that Abbott will continue to say whatever he wants to knowing that Labor won’t open up about any other rumours. He knows they won’t play as dirty as he does because everytime the Govt. goes after him and the Libs the majority of voters associate it only with the Govt. doing wrong.

  7. Victoria I have a very simple philosophy on politicians and behavior, if you do the crime then you do the time. That applies to all politicians of all persuasions.

    However we are talking about a specific set of circumstances here about a person holding a high office and the overriding principle should be about protecting the integrity of that office. This seems to be getting buried in all the political manouverings.

  8. It’s time for the #MSMhacks to stop the double standard and question Abbott over the cover-up by his Govt in 2003 of #SlipperGate

  9. Centre and Diogs

    Normally I am sceptical for reasons of police shooting. In this case the car had already mown down one woman. I support an independent investigation to clear the names of the police in question. To calm community concern and provide information for improving responses in future.

  10. Lets look at this another way,, perhaps this is all leading somewhere, not sure where
    .’
    Perhaps these things have to happen to make other things happen , that get flushed out

    May be the road is narrowing for abbott , no where else to go.

  11. BH

    Again, the main game is If Slipper is cleared of Any wrongdoing with entitlements. With respect to the other stuff, as they are civil matter, he has every right to return to work. If fact, many MPs at any given time are subject to civil proceedings.
    If Slipper is cleared and returns to the speakership, it is up to Abbott to test the confidence of the house. It is a high risk strategy all round

  12. my say

    I believe this too. I believe Abbott wants to restricts questions to now and not have anyone ask well why did you do this and not this when thought you had political advantage?

  13. leone, that gorilla is definitely a better sort than Abbott. You are right, the apes are beautiful creatures, especially in comparison to Abbott.

    My Say feel free to email away 😎

  14. Dio@3405:

    They managed to hit the kids who were a moving target. Since when do we shoot at stolen cars anyway?

    Dio they allegedly had already run over a woman and struck a pedestrian.

    Her partner, Matthew Dalton, 24, was the oldest of six males in a stolen car that allegedly ran over a 29-year-old woman and struck a pedestrian in Kings Cross on Saturday morning.
    The group was allegedly attempting to flee after two officers recognised them on Bayswater Road about 4am.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/they-could-have-at-least-shot-the-tyres-not-shoot-at-little-kids-20120422-1xf52.html#ixzz1spKzrV3d

  15. my say @ 3383

    I thought graig emmersons interview was very sharp quick, your sure you listened to the right
    One in fact BEmused i thought it was too short

    The one that went for over 8 minutes?

    Where were the short, sharp sound bites that would be repeated on the news?

  16. [Standards I have concerns Abbott is capable of maintaining guytaur.]

    So rue DavidWH. Milne’s first couple of paragraphs in his article on Abbott using taxpayer funds to sell his book said that he was obsessed with money (for himself).

    Perhaps at the bottom of all this is the fact that he is envious of those who have made or have more than he has. Rudd, Turnbull, even Gillard who would have amassed more than Abbott because she seems a moderate person in all things and has had less life expenses than he. Abbott would hate that.

  17. 1934pc @ 3402

    Shooting out the tyres of a car can cause the car to crash KILLING the occupants?!.

    Simple my dear Watson?.

    Unlike bullets in the neck and chest?

  18. [..and was in fact Parliamentary secretary to Mr Howard, when he was PM.]

    Oh dear, hope this is not a case of the manifestation of learned behaviour from a political senior….

  19. We should all remember that Kafer was stood down by Smith when there were no charges and he was reinstated after the investigation.

    Don

    Fair enough.

  20. Diogenes @ 3405

    mm

    They managed to hit the kids who were a moving target. Since when do we shoot at stolen cars anyway?

    When they have mounted a footpath and pose a danger to the public including actually knocking one pedestrian down and wedging her under the front of the car. And shooting at tyres may have resulted in that pedestrian being shot.

    There are certainly aspects of porcine behaviour in this incident that deserve criticism, but you have not mentioned them yet.

  21. joe2

    What is making me laugh about all this is that the coalition and msm are now saying that somehow the govt should not have gotten Slipper for speaker because of rumours of his supposed “behaviour” in 2003. Up until he became speaker, no one on the coalition side mentioned anything publicly about Slipper and his supposed “behaviour”. This is all too ludicrous for words quite frankly

  22. [I am amazed that the Libs are prepared to go with this high risk strategy]

    It should be high risk, but no journo will question Abbott about his obvious hypocrisy.

    So for the Libs it’s not high risk at all, just some more mud to throw about. When they’ve finished, they’ll move on and keep throwing that mud, knowing full well that none of it will land on them.

  23. Abbott has wailed many times that Slipper vote is a tainted vote. Yet, he gladly accept Slipper vote for him Vs Turnbull & won by 1. Fuckwit

  24. Don

    In Adelaide, these car chases tend to happen on the same streets most times. They should set up a gizmo so the police can trigger spikes to pop up from the road surface to puncture the tyres.

  25. Dio,
    When a cop pulls a gun, it is to shoot a person, in the chest. It is what they are trained to do. They do not shoot at things like tyres, or aim for legs or arms.

    The question here imo is whether the car was still drivable and could have hit other people. If so, fine. If not, it joins the list of questionable police shootings that already exists.

    I would like to see police disarmed of deadly weapons. There is question being explored about the whether the arming of police actually increases the arming of criminals.

  26. Ashby seems to have some grounds for sexual harrassment. But he is claiming damages on the basis that becuase he refused the advances it affected his career. He does not yet appear to have evidence for this.

  27. i know nothing about the details of the kings cross incident. and have no opinion on the cops actions.

    i was merely pointing out that if you want to stop a car, shooting tyres is a low percentage play.

  28. RTMD @ 3428

    I would like to see police disarmed of deadly weapons. There is question being explored about the whether the arming of police actually increases the arming of criminals.

    I agree.

  29. Wasn’t Kafer stood down because there were many reports of sexual harassment, assault, rape issues within the DFA. It wasn’t just one case. I would have kicked him out long before he was stood down because it had been going on for years without being cleaned up.

  30. dio.

    i bet he says, drawing a weapon is last option, life threatening situation, not much time to act and take aim, therefore go for the biggest target = torso.

  31. [Shooting out the tyres of a car can cause the car to crash KILLING the occupants?!.]

    Yeah like that is so easy to do. Depending on the distance, with a pistol, they are basically aiming for the car, hoping to hit it, and distract the occupants so that they do prang and come to a stop. Coppers are trained in firearms, but they are not experts.

    Deliberately shooting tyres is silliness out of the movies. Even for an expert it would be very chancy and more likely they would miss altogether and have ricochets off the ground to deal with drilling bystanders. Then watch the press go into a feeding frenzy.

    At least in this case the only ones with holes were the people who arguably deserved it.

    Can you imagine Hockey, Robb and :monkey: with guns?

    Dah shoot demselves in dah feets gang??

  32. [the police can trigger spikes to pop up from the road surface to puncture the tyres.]

    Considering this was a footpath, if they had one in place they could use, well, dont sit on the footpath i guess. 🙂

  33. we have to remember our cops aren’t the ultra cool cats from tv. when something like this occurs the adrenline would be pumping big time. for most it would be the first time they’ve drawn their pistol in the line of duty…. thinking time would be nought.

    i’m surprised the banning of semi-auto handguns hasn’t gotten more backing from the public.

  34. [The Slipper affair does not reflect on the Greens Party parliamentarians at all.]

    Oh dear, Horsey is on her usual moral high horse

  35. Diogenes @ 3432

    Puff

    My next door neighbour was a police superintendent. I’ll ask him why they don’t shoot at tyres or legs.

    I have done pistol training and the instructions were to always shoot at the largest target i.e. the centre of the body, and fire more than once. Pistols are not very accurate, particularly when used in a ‘combat’ situation. It is nothing like a target range situation.

    When shooting at car occupants the object would be the same, go for the largest target, the torso.

    Shooting a tyre may not stop a car – it would just slow it down. If you are driving a stolen car you don’t care if the wheel gets stuffed by driving with a flat tyre.

    You seem to watch too many police dramas.

  36. [Where do Ms Mirabella’s civil action travails sit on the scale relative to Slipper’s?]

    And the Fib/Nats have form for this sort of thing. Hajnal Ban in QLD has been in all sorts of bother over older mens money.

  37. Given Mr Abbott’s claims about the seriousness of sexual harassment, when is he going to bring in legislation to make it part of criminal law?

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