Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. The consequences of not returning the sexual advances are listed as follows:
    1. Adviser was called fat
    2. Adviser was asked to communicate not directly to Slipper, but through another adviser.
    3. Adviser was no longer invited on Sydney Harbour cruise.

    Seriously, those are the career consequences according to the court document.

  2. Seems the lady in question has since beeen told to un-forget about it as she has kept her mouth shut all this time.

    [The documents allege that Tony Nutt, a senior adviser to then-prime minister Mr Howard, was told of the allegations “in or around mid-2003”.

    It says a former Slipper staffer, Megan Hobson, had seen a video in which Mr Slipper “was observed to”:

    “…enter the bedroom of a junior staff member through the window”;
    “… lie on a bed with the junior male staff member in shorts and T-shirt and hug the junior male staff member in an intimate fashion”;
    “… urinate out of the window of the room.”

    The documents allege that Mr Nutt then told Ms Hobson to “forget all about it”.]

  3. Centre

    [Diogs there were innocent bystanders nearby.

    I’m sick of people breaking the law in our society.

    And as for criminal gangs and driveby shootings, they should put the bastards behind bars and individually hang every bikie member one by one.

    Gutless fat bastards.]

    Sounds very Chuck Norris

  4. Another change in ABC coverage. Now the headline is Claim and counterclaim.

    An honest balanced headline on Slippergate in my opinion.

  5. Hi all

    The PM, Emmerson etc seem to be getting a good run on ABC Radio (FM Classical anyway); short and sharp to the point back onto the opposition, while Abbott is being presented as having to explain past Liberal support for Slipper.

    This is how Labor should be all the time.

    Tho’ just now hearing Oakshott is asking for Slipper to stand aside re the civil matter – while acknowledging the allegations may be from a rogue employee.

    F

  6. bg

    I have no idea as to the guilt or innocence of Slipper on anything. I know He was an excellent speaker. Too good for the coalition it seems.

    Based on what I have read of the conplaint by the staffer, it stinks too much for my liking

  7. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/labor-would-back-peter-slippers-return-as-speaker-if-cleared-of-criminal-allegations/story-fndckad0-1226336041681

    [Labor would back Peter Slipper’s return as Speaker if cleared of criminal allegations
    BY: LANAI VASEK From: The Australian April 23, 2012 11:40AM

    THE Gillard government says it will accept Peter Slipper back as Speaker if he’s cleared of criminal allegations even if civil, sexual harassment claims remain unresolved.]

    http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_120423.pdf
    Full Essential Poll today

  8. [Here is some more on Ashby’s claims.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-23/new-claims-lodged-against-slipper/3966498%5D

    that article claims:

    [Mr Slipper’s staffer James Ashby has lodged a claim under the Fair Work Act against the Commonwealth and against Mr Slipper.]

    So do FWA have to investigate now??

    I have just had a read of the document attached to that ABC report. WTF are the Coalition doing going anywhere near this!! Most of the case against the Commonwealth seems to relate to Howard and Co knowing about Slippers alleged harassment, ect and covering it up??

  9. [But he is claiming damages on the basis that becuase he refused the advances it affected his career. He does not yet appear to have evidence for this.]

    bg – that’s a point we’ve missed over the weekend. If he’s appointing an agent then he has earnings lined up somewhere. If all he’s got over Slipper is that he had to go through another person, then that doesn’t seem to be much either.

    As BB wrote “Is that all there is??” – it read like the jilted lover affidavits I used to slave over.

    Brandis still very quiet.

  10. Caught a bit of Andew Probyn in ABC morning program.

    He is usually fair and balance and for a West journalist, tends not to say stupid things.

    More or less confirmed the orthodox view of Slipper but pondered on the division on the two court issues – which he said was decidedly “weird”.

    He pointed out the the Cabcharge thing almost seemed like and after-thought and did not seem at all to do with the harassment issues. He wondered what all this was about – as we should.

    This whole issue by the Murdoch press smells of dead, rotting fish.

  11. [Mia Freedman ‏ @MiaFreedman

    Are journo students really being taught that News Ltd are the evil empire?? Ridiculous if true (& yes I work for New Ltd but still ridic.)
    Retweeted by Caitlin Fitzsimmons

    Space Kidette Space Kidette ‏ @SpaceKidette

    @MiaFreedman News reaps what it sows.
    ]

  12. imacca

    That was my question earlier. It seems like a high risk strategy for the coalition. For me it has the potential to blowback on current sitting Lib MPs. If I were them, I would be encouraging this guy to drop the suit. Unless this guy is achieving something all together different then we think. Ie ruin the Fibs

  13. (Tho’ just now hearing Oakshott is asking for Slipper to stand aside re the civil matter – while acknowledging the allegations may be from a rogue employee.)

    Mr oakeshott and windsor glad they are speaking out

    F

  14. Tho’ just now hearing Oakshott is asking for Slipper to stand aside re the civil matter

    He isn’t. You are hearing wrong.

  15. http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/04/23/keane-on-cabinet-trashed-by-rudd-misunderstood-by-the-press/

    [The most spectacular example of cabinet breaking down was under Rudd. After the GFC, in which a series of emergency financial and economic decision were taken by a small group of senior ministers on advice from the most senior bureaucrats, Rudd came increasingly to rely on the Strategic Priorities and Budget Committee — aka the Gang of Four: himself, Wayne Swan, Julia Gillard and Lindsay Tanner — to make key decisions, many of which never went before cabinet. The government’s decision to “delay” its carbon pollution reduction scheme in 2010 didn’t go to cabinet. And neither, most notoriously, did the government’s response to the Henry tax review, centred on the mining tax. Ministers weren’t given the opportunity to even understand the complex policy, let alone scrutinise it, consider its political implications or, in the case of Resources Minister Martin Ferguson, discuss the likely reaction of the industry.]

  16. Windsor sounds like he won’t support cutting the fuel rebate for miners.

    Minority government must be a real pain in the arse.

  17. Hi This little black duck re 3466

    Oh ok – just caught it as I was typing, so must have clattered over it.

    But as mysay said, neither Oakshott or Windsor are falling for the Liberal spin.

    F

  18. It was bound to happen – not of course, from the Murdoch end – but now it is being put about that there were issues about Slipper dating back to 2003 which it is thought “Prime Minister John Howard knew about.”

    When will the journos get to ask John about this?

  19. [Q and A is doing an hour with Bob Brown.]

    I’d be interested to see how questions re. homosexual harassment are handled by both questioner and answerer.

    What I mean is: poufter bashing won’t go down well with Brown.

  20. This is only a high risk strategy by Abbott if there is any chance he will be held to account. He won’t be.

    Whoever is behind this, individual or group, has worked with the biggest media company in the country to have it on the front page of newspapers in every state.

    They do so in the full knowledge that this theme will be picked up by the ABC, which nowadays merely reruns stories from other outlets and does no journalism of its own.

    (Note the ABC has done nothing whatsoever to test the veracity of the stories. All it has done is ask people to react to stories carried by other outlets.)

    If Slipper is vindicated it gains nought for the government. The stories will merely be spun that it was bad judgment to make Slipper speaker because he could be even accused of something. Guilt or otherwise is completely irrelevant.

  21. joe2
    [I never act as though I speak for a party.]

    Neither do I. It was my own opinion, nothing to do with “speaking for a party”.

    I provide information about the Greens Party stance on issues, etc, to counter any verballing and misrepresentations.

    I often do so without my personal comment as I am happy for others to judge the content for themselves.

    [It could prove just as embarrassing as your amateurish attempt at Green p.r.]

    So, do i take it, whenever a Laborite makes a comment favouravble to Labor or links to an ALP media release, that it is an “amateurish attempt at Labor p.r.”?]

  22. Essential’s report has a preferred Lib leader poll.

    [30% (+5%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 23% (+1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 14% (-­‐3%) Joe Hockey. Among Liberal/Nationalvoters, 39%(-­‐1%) prefer Tony Abbott, 26% (+7%) Malcolm Turnbull and 17% -(5%) Joe Hockey. MalcolmTurnbull is preferred by 33% of men and 28 of women,Tony Abbott by 26% of men and 19% of women.]

  23. [It was bound to happen – not of course, from the Murdoch end – but now it is being put about that there were issues about Slipper dating back to 2003 which it is thought “Prime Minister John Howard knew about.”]

    Worse still, Tricot, some are even wondering whether Howard was his role model.

  24. Oakeshott said that if the civil matter was proved then Peter Slipper should step aside. Didn’t sound too happy about saying that.

  25. TLBD

    Slipper has proven Oakshott right an Independent Speaker is the way to go. Oakshott wants the public to see more so pressure on major parties to deliver way of getting Independent Speaker.
    IMO

  26. [The Slipper affair does not reflect on the Greens Party parliamentarians at all.]

    Didn’t Adam Bandt vote “yes” in the Slipper For Speaker vote?

  27. shellbell,

    It will be interesting to see if the press gallery actually make mention of the Lib leaader polls in any way.

  28. DL

    As did Oakshott and Windsor. The only part of this that sticks to Labor is in choosing Slipper for Speaker.
    The Green and Independent vote says that Labor had grounds for doing so.

  29. [This is only a high risk strategy by Abbott if there is any chance he will be held to account. He won’t be.]

    Exactly. He never is. He just throws mud safe around with complete impunity, simply moving on to the next round of garbage whenever he needs to. It’s a campaign of headlines, supported by the MSM, and it is highly effective.

    Labor and its supporters can’t hope to win on logic and facts, that’s not how this war is being waged.

  30. As to why the Coalition are risking fall out over Slipper, my guess would be it is like Abbott being prepared to carry poor personal polling over his negativity etc, so long as he feels he can keep damaging Gillard and Labor into worse polling.

    So Abbott would be hoping that the “sleaze” factor is going to be worse for Labor, even if the Coalition loses some skin over it as well.

    Several have mentioned the Mal Colston affair from the 1990’s as a possible parallel – does anyone know what the final impact of that was?

    F

  31. New post at The Daily Derp
    [Last week, WA Premier Colin Barnett (pictured left), had to make an embarassing back down over his attempt to take away pensioner’s compensation payments from the Commonwealth for the Carbon Price.

    Less than a week later, he’s once again shown exactly where the Liberal Party’s heart lies. He has refused to accept grants for public schools in WA at the same time as private schools are busy signing up to receive them.

    Fellow Tories Campbell “Cannot Do” Newman in Queensland, Ted “Fail You” Baillieu in Victoria and Barry “Even Lazier Than Peter Costello” O’Farrell in New South Wales have signed up without any quibbles, making the Barnett led WA LNP government the only state government of any political stripe to refuse the grants. ]

    Colin Barnett Shows LNP’s True Colours – Again

  32. [Where do Ms Mirabella’s civil action travails sit on the scale relative to Slipper’s?]

    Good question. Which allegation do you think is worse, sexual harassment or elder abuse?

  33. Shellbell

    It will this time. A tweet showing result saying Turnbull preferred leader by that amount will have to get coverage.

  34. Fil R @ 3491

    Several have mentioned the Mal Colston affair from the 1990′s as a possible parallel – does anyone know what the final impact of that was?

    In a desperate last ditch attempt to avoid the matter being determined by the courts, Colston died.

    Hi ploy worked!

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