Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. 3121 DL
    [Abbott actually went to a pokies meeting hosted by Clubs Australia and pronounced loudly that he would oppose the legislation and, in government (if it got up) repeal it. What was Wilkie’s response? Oh, that’s just Abbott telling his audience what he thinks they want to hear. I’ll talk to him first before I make up my own mind.

    Hello?

    What part of “if he’s lying to their faces, what makes you think he won’t lie to your face as well” does this drongo not understand?

    Sheesh. ]

    Perhaps he intends getting Abbott to put it in writing and verified by a notary.

  2. [If I were them, I would be encouraging this guy to drop the suit. Unless this guy is achieving something all together different then we think. Ie ruin the Fibs]

    LOL! Could be, but i’d put it down to just more of the consistent negative reinforcement message from the Fib/Mordor complex. Its already being presented as “another” example of how hopelessly chaotic and fumble prone this Govt is, and once it fades off into nothing the MSM will simply refer to “SlipperGate” as an embarrassing episode for the Govt without explaining that it was all a beat up.

    Best thing that could happen now is a 0.5% rate cut, a slight surplus in the Budget, and the next Unemployment #’s down or steady and there is actually a reasonable chance of that happening.

  3. Davidwh
    [However we are talking about a specific set of circumstances here about a person holding a high office and the overriding principle should be about protecting the integrity of that office. This seems to be getting buried in all the political manouverings.]
    Christine Milne hasn’t lost sight of this principle:

    Christine Milne as reported in the MSM:

    1. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/slipper-crisis-rocks-julia-gillard-as-speaker-peter-slipper-steps-aside/story-fndckad0-1226335755251
    [Greens leader Christine Milne said the Speaker of the house was a “very senior role which must command respect”.

    “At the same time, the presumption of innocence must be respected,” she said in a statement.]
    2. http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/heat-on-pm-as-speaker-stands-aside-20120422-1xfed.html?skin=text-only
    [Greens Leader Christine Milne said the allegations levelled against Mr Slipper were serious but he must be afforded the presumption of innocence. ”These are serious allegations and they need to be treated appropriately,” Senator Milne said. ”At the same time, the presumption of innocence must be respected.”]

  4. TLBD

    There will be some questions about returned service people. Articles supporting troops sell more copies of papers than sleaze does.

  5. BH,

    That was a thought provoker. Lots of policy questions there with huge question marks. But very exciting technologically!

  6. Anyone notice the new PR approach from the govt? Issue, mow over opposition hot air with substantial positive announcements, make another substantial positive announcement.

  7. Hi bemused re 2499

    Yes I guess that might work! I had a look online and there were only the bare bones (Wkipedia mentions that there is/was still a dispute over the will into 2011).

    What I had in mind is whether either the Libs (to whom he “ratted”) or Labor (which then went after him) actually suffered any real fall out, or did just become another “bloody politicians” moment – I’m suspecting the latter.

    F

  8. Slipper has been an excellent Speaker of the House, and I’ve noted from comments on twitter that a number of journos believe this as well.

    What I’d like is for those journos to ask Abbott whether he also believes Slipper has performed well as Speaker, whether Slipper’s performance as Speaker has enhanced the efficient working of the Parliament and whether, if and when any allegations against him are sorted, he would support his return to the Speakership.

  9. [Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    It was Gillard who pushed for Slipper to replace Jenkins as Speaker, once again it’s Gillard’s judgement that is being called into question.
    All the bagging of the media & the Liberals doesn’t alter this fact. ]

    Well, it’s still a better record than your hero’s judgement. He left the Howard stooges in charge of the ABC, tried to do a deal with Murdoch on Sky, and appointed Costello and Downer to sinecures where they have continued to slag off the government.

  10. [What I’d like is for those journos to ask Abbott whether he also believes Slipper has performed well as Speaker, whether Slipper’s performance as Speaker has enhanced the efficient working of the Parliament and whether, if and when any allegations against him are sorted, he would support his return to the Speakership.]

    BH, no chance. Abbott has stated clearly this morning that he was on the way to get rid of Slipper before PM Gillard “rescued” him by making him Speaker.

  11. Those who seek to draw parallels between Slipper and Kafer, like Christopher Pain, miss the point. Kafer was stood down because there was a high level independent inquiry into his handling of a matter that related directly to the performance of his official duties.
    Slipper has stood down because of allegations of serious criminal conduct, and rightly so. But allegations he sexually abused one of his staff does not directly relate to his performance as Speaker. We can have every confidence in him, as Speaker, whether or not those allegations are true.

  12. With sexual harrassment in the workplace I would have thought the following issues are germane:

    (1) the power relationship. This means, I understand, that in the workplace the onus is on the advancer if there is any sign of discomfort or demurral or rejection – even if the advancer does not persist. In this case the boss appears to have suggested that he would like to have a shag with a junion staffmember. The junior staff member seems to have responded not with thanks but no thanks, not with no, but with a somewhat ambivalent set of responses. These may denote discomfort with being asked at all or discomfort with some other aspects. The point is not how we would have responded in the situation, or even how important we thing having a shag with Mr Slipper might be. The point is what the advancee perceives and feels. Mr Slipper is clearly on tricky ground here.

    (2) with flirtation, advances and sexual suggestion, perception is often critical. If it involves a power relationship at work, the perceptions of the advancee tend to be given weight.

    (3) persistent effort makes a difference. If there is a hint and it is ignored and the hinter retires from the fray, this is different from a pattern or persistence.

    (4) it matters whether the ‘workplace’ is the formal office workplace or whether someone has agreed to go with someone for what is clearly a work-related or ambiguous social engagement – drinks, a party and so on and so forth. Even in the latter case there would still be a heightened requirement for getting informed consent because of the extra power relationship and workplace dimensions.

    (5) in terms of damages in a civil case, I imagine it does matter whether the advancee can demonstrate career or financial damage.

    (6) whatever the context, advancees in society take a huge risk that society will judge them adversely and that they will do themselves some serious career damage by pursing redress publicly. I seem to recall the MSM wolfpack turning nasty in relation to the David Jones case recently.

  13. )(y Abbott by 26% of men and 19% of women.)

    WOULD SOME ONE PLEASE TWEET THIS TO abbott,
    )
    L % (+5%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 23% (+1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 14% (-‐3%) Joe Hockey. Among Liberal/Nationalvoters, 39%(and this

    Ess, doesnt get our there a lot but this good to let liberals know about their boy

  14. [The Slipper affair tarnishes the two major parties and reinforces the perception for many that both parties lack integrity.

    The Slipper affair does not reflect on the Greens Party parliamentarians at all.]

    The above is a quote from Pegasus @3287.

    Further back in this thread, Pegasus claimed the Prime Minister was dog-whistling to blue collar voters who had left Labor for the Coalition. The general theme, as always with the Greens, is one of elevated morality.

    There is, however, a major flaw in these arguments.

    Regardless of their assertions, the fact remains that the Greens continue to give support to this minority government. They could, at any time, withdraw it. So, when the Greens try to land the blame for Slipper squarely at the feet of the major parties, they conveniently avoid telling us that they had every chance to question his integrity and to oppose his appointment – but they didn’t. They didn’t, because it suited their political objective as a minority government partner that desperately needed the buffer of another vote. Likewise, the Greens continue to support a minority government that Pegasus accuses of dog-whistling. Why? Because it suits their political objectives.

    Over the course of this parliament, the Greens have shown that they will abandon principle and horse-trade with the best of them to get what they want.

    They really are just another political party.

  15. [In a desperate last ditch attempt to avoid the matter being determined by the courts, Colston died.]

    bemused – you’re forgetting. It took 6 years by which time Howard had passed his sale of telstra bill and something else I’ve forgotten about. The Court case was dropped because Colston had Drs reports saying he wouldn’t survive long enough to attend the hearing. He retired from the Senate with a wad of cash and I think took a holiday o/s. The Dr was wrong.

  16. “In Adelaide, these car chases tend to happen on the same streets most times.”

    As they would in a one horse town. The fact is, the media arm of the Liberal Party cannot bring themselves to admit that their guy, in spite of law and order being the only plank in his “manifesto”, has lost control of the issue. Completely. His idea of a fix is to ban bikie colours in pubs. Seriously.

    Can you imagine what the headlines would like if keneally were still in charge? And then tell me we have an even-handed media.

  17. Fil R @ 3513

    What I had in mind is whether either the Libs (to whom he “ratted”) or Labor (which then went after him) actually suffered any real fall out, or did just become another “bloody politicians” moment – I’m suspecting the latter.

    The Libs benefited from his vote. Labor went after him, taunted him for ratting and exposed all the skeletons in his closet. No-one else gave two hoots.

  18. 3184 middle man
    [The friendly voices are niche and heard by too few.

    **My say now you can berate me for being pessimistic ]

    Don’t despair too much, mm, although I know how you feel. Even that great stalwart Ian rather despaired momentarily at the way the media pretended that a Gillard staffer had caused the Australia Day ‘riots’.

    He’s back on board with his usual visionary posts. I hope you will be too. I must admit I find it both annoying and bewildering to be living out an Orwellian world where black is portrayed as white and so on.

    The good news is that Murdoch’s days are definitely numbered.

  19. [Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    Oakeshott & Windsor are hanging on for dear life to Gillard, because they know that they’ll be the first casulties if there’s an early election.
    Those two are more about their own self interest than ideals. ]

    Oh FFS! You really wouldn’t know political integrity if it hit you over the head!

    Those two have set an example to the rest of the country and have done more for regional Australia in two years than the Nationals have done in the last twenty years.

    What have you got against them anyway? That they allowed Gillard to form a government? Does your quest for vengeance know no bounds?

  20. [http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-offered-backing-says-renegade-speaker-20111203-1ocky.html]

    Just a reminder of the “He said, he said” from last year, when Tony Abbott claimed he was trying to get Slipper out of parliament, whilst Slipper said, in fact, they had a meeting at which Abbott offered support.

    Had a laugh reading that, especially in light of what happened to Peter Reith. One might say Mr Rabbott has form in this area …

  21. Dio@3428:

    Don

    In Adelaide, these car chases tend to happen on the same streets most times. They should set up a gizmo so the police can trigger spikes to pop up from the road surface to puncture the tyres.

    Couldn’t agree more.

    You’d need to be sure the next car along was the one you wanted, though!

    I have what may be a dumb question, but that hasn’t stopped me before:

    If the tyres are shot out or shredded by the gizmo, how far can a car continue to be driven, albeit with a fair bit of noise from the crinkling rims?

  22. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 11:37 am | Permalink

    This is “it”???

    “Sexual harassment”?

    This piece of fluff?

    Courtesy of the SMH’s reporter, Louise Hall. ]

    As Peggy Lee once sang: Is that all there is?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe9kKf7SHco

    Sounds like the civil case won’t have much more substance than the criminal allegation.

  23. Gorgeous Dunny
    3529
    well said! both men – and i know oakeshott personally, are men of principle – i can assure you they care not what happens at the next election. they are both working extremely hard EVERY day for their electorates and the country. pity there aren’t more like them!

  24. [Just a reminder of the “He said, he said” from last year, when Tony Abbott claimed he was trying to get Slipper out of parliament]

    I wonder how long Abbott had been “trying to get Slipper out of Parliament” and what had motivated this desire. The obvious time would have been some time after he became leader. If he thought Slipper was unfit to serve then the question arises — why did he keep quiet? If he didn’t know then — he can’t have been reading his own side’s notes. When did he find out, what did he find out and what did he do about it?

    Us curious folk want to know.

    It seems clear to me that if Slipper can refute the claim that he handed over signed but blank cabcharge documents, then a serious question arises about what else we can believe about Ashby’s claims. In those circumstances, unless there is some other corroboration, it’s hard to see how they could be upheld. If they are not, then this begins to smell very much like GG all over again.

  25. Let me add for the record of course that in my personal opinion, workplace sexual liaisons are usually ill-advised (save perhaps where a couple get a job somewhere, run their own business etc). When the realtionship arises in the workplace and one party is in a supervisory role, or the potential for a professional conflict of interest arises, it’s especially unwise, even if formally consensual — for all sorts of reasons. Save as above, it’s always advisable, in my opinion, to keep work and sexuality at arm’s length. It rarely works out well. Either the liaison sours and worklife gets wrecked, or some issue at work arises and that sours the relationship. And what happens when one party takes a shine to someone else? Then it only takes someone to say that you’ve abandoned your professionalism in the course of a decision and then you can have something extremely messy.

    I find it hard to believe that Slipper could have been this silly. He must have known that his erstwhile colleagues would be looking for any excuse to publicly shame him — ideally something that wasn’t traceable back to them. being unprofessional in his dealings with someone would be fairly obvious and with the same sex attraction angle it was always going to be grist to the media mill — a feeding frenzy.

    Whatever else I think of him, I don’t think an unremittingly personally unwise person can make it into politics and survive. One of your rivals will spear you long before that. So on balance, the most simple first guess is that this has to be a set up. Ashby implies he knew what he was getting himself into when he took the job. He says he stayed with Slipper of his own volition. He says he gave him a massage which is no part of any job description I’ve ever read for staffers. Why would he do that if not to create an impression that he was open to more than just being a staffer?

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