Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. [Mumble thinks that the “distraction” will be advantage to Labor as Swan never breaks through with his budgets anyway.]
    In this instance I think Mumble is right. It could be an advantage to Labor to have a mongrel budget, with cuts everywhere, go through to the keeper.

  2. guytaur @ 3342

    bemused

    Ok. Cool. I was just being careful. I know how easily things can turn nasty through misunderstanding.

    You always play with a straight bat and would always get the benefit of the doubt from me.
    On the other hand, there are some here who deliberately and repeatedly twist others words or attribute to them positions they don’t hold. I treat them accordingly.

  3. [In this instance I think Mumble is right. It could be an advantage to Labor to have a mongrel budget, with cuts everywhere, go through to the keeper.]

    Yep.

  4. It’s useless to expect higher standards from the press gallery. Just look at their peak organisation. Steve Lewis is Senior Vice President of the National Press Club.
    http://www.npc.org.au/club/directors.html
    What sort of qualifications do you need to get that position? The ability to rush into print with unsubstantated gossip must be one of them because Lewis has a real talent for that. Integrity, impartiality and accuracy must be a long way down the list.

  5. Accurate tweeting here –
    [Gordon Graham ‏ @gordongraham
    shorter Abbott: I’ve got 68 days left before I’m royally screwed! GIVE ME THE JOB!]

  6. [In this instance I think Mumble is right. It could be an advantage to Labor to have a mongrel budget, with cuts everywhere, go through to the keeper.]

    Labor volunteers required for mass pants drop.

  7. [Tony Abbott now pleading with Australians not to let their embarrassment of the Govt cloud their view of Australia.]

    Tony Abbott now pleading with Australians not to remember that he supported Peter Slipper for years and years.

  8. [Tony Abbott now pleading with Australians not to let their embarrassment of the Govt cloud their view of Australia.]

    After that appeal I have decided to unpack my bags and not quit Australia.

  9. [Tony Abbott now pleading with Australians not to let their embarrassment of the Govt cloud their view of Australia.]

    Yes, we should try and build up our immunity now for when clowns like Barnaby and Tony are running the show.

  10. BK@3000 – Yes, exactly. (Top work too BH getting it out there)

    There must be some in the ABC that see this. It must be so depressing.

    How to get ABC back to charter, I do not know.

    Only a few years ago, I got very defensive over the idea of privitising the ABC. Now, if Swanny wanted to defund and/or flog it off – I’d be why not – it rebadges News Ltd ledes, publishes IPA rot and the platform for the uncritical transmission of conservatives (such as Pyne and Abbott this morning).

  11. Davidwh

    Yes. However the Coaliton cannot make claims about Labor relying on someone when that same person was a vote difference as to who was leader of the Liberal Party.

  12. Guytaur they can if they decide to as that is just how politics plays out. The court of public opinion ends up deciding which position is less acceptable.

    Personally I believe the real relevant issue is the integrity of the position of Speaker and all the rest is just political noise.

  13. [Tony Abbott now pleading with Australians not to let their embarrassment of the Govt cloud their view of Australia.]

    No wonder the media and shockjocks thrive on this bloke. He’s been talking down the economy for 3 years, telling us we’re in diabolical due to Govt. incompetency, intimating that a single, childless atheist couldn’t possibly be as good and as ethical as an upstanding church going, family man and he wants us to feel good about the joint.

    Give me strength!

    BB – Vexnews said the Libs would be anxious to keep Ashby away from the media for fear he may break and spill some unwanted beans on how the harassment issue became a Court matter.

  14. BH @ 3357

    I have now listened to the AM interview and watched the Breakfast interview.

    It was good for anyone who was prepared to pay attention and listen, but that is a minority of the electorate.

    We need short, sharp, attack points which encapsulate Abbott’s duplicity in a few memorable words, and which can be repeated over and over again until they sink into the electorates psyche.

    Detailed rational argument just does not work, I am sorry to say, except for the tiny minority of political tragics.

  15. When u listen to elmo, it reminds you of the ministers of that time, re howard years
    ”i had forgotten most’of that

    David have a listen

  16. victoria

    Maybe we should get the sleaze factor out of them. Send them to the Gay and Lesbian Sleaze Ball to get it out of their system.

  17. I thought graig emmersons interview was very sharp quick, your sure you listened to the right
    One in fact BEmused i thought it was too short

  18. Guytaur except that higher standards are demanded of people who hold higher positions quite correctly in my opinion. If political leaders ignore that demand and get punished then so be it. We have seen dramatic results of this at state level in the past 12 months.

  19. Ducky

    I especially liked the way Albo said that everyone must be careful about rumours. Basically warning them that this can lead down a slippery slope

  20. I have just watched Abbott’s appearance on Sky News followed by the presser given by Albanese and Wong.

    Tony Abbott should get out of the SEWER and go to Taronga Park Zoo where he can at least make himself useful for entertainment purposes.

    It is an embarrassment on the part of the Liberal Party that they can put forward a :mrgreen: like him to potentially lead the country.

    Albanese said that people can draw their own conclusions as to the coverage reported by the Daily Disease with the information they had given the speed that they went into print.

    Yep, thanks Albo, I certainly have drawn my own conclusions.

  21. Why didn’t the police have the option of shooting the car’s tyres? Just saying “we don’t shoot tyres” isn’t a reason.

    [Police have again appealed for calm over the shooting of two teenagers on a joyride in Kings Cross on the weekend, saying officers did not have the option to shoot the tyres of the allegedly stolen car.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/we-dont-shoot-at-tyres-police-call-for-calm-following-kings-cross-shooting-20120423-1xfoq.html#ixzz1spHLgrty

  22. It’s time that media ownership laws were reviewed and changed as a matter of extreme urgency for the good of our economy.

    It’s Time!

  23. @3193

    Where’s Ashby BB?

    He is waiting while his agent plays off ACA, TT or 60 Minutes against each other for the best deal.

    It was always risky putting for the PM to tie herself in with Slipper, but less risky at the time than Wilkie.

    This only ends well if the hints VexNews are dropping about a Lib set up are based on some substance.

    It is all very well to be outraged by the tactics used here, but who didn’t think this was on the agenda? Labor must have known this was likely to happen.

  24. (Guytaur except that higher standards are demanded of people who hold higher positions quite correctly in my opinion. If political leaders ignore that demand and get punished then so be it. We)

    Yes thats true david well said

    AWB weapons of mass desruction,,,’ still searching, , other things as craig just pointed
    O david come one, they say its a mans world

    No the world belongs to tories, ,,”, they dont stand down only tell other s to

  25. davidWH

    Albo made it clear that there are plenty of rumours swirling around Parliament about different people. If Abbott wants to take our parliament in this direction, I suspect he will be one in the firing line

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