Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. Lets see a brave journo ask Mr Abbott about Mr Windsors comments of bring it on the floor of Parliament.

    Will not hold my breath.

  2. Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke
    Oppn Leader Tony Abbott – the PM doesn’t get it – she doesn’t understand how serious the allegations [against Peter Slipper] are.’

    1m Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke
    Oppn Leader Tony Abbott ‘it is vital, it is essential that all the various allegations be fully dealt with before he returns to the chair.’

    Subtext – the PM is an incompetent fool.

  3. BH, he didn’t say that, but there was apparently some sort of gotcha question asked that he didn’t answer in the way they wanted. Just Sky yet again twisting words and making false implications.

  4. It makes me cry, ever since abbott been lotto
    Everyday one is on edge wondering which rabbitt is going to be pulled out of ahat.

    Sometimes i feel as though he has ruined my life and most caring people

    Howard did not have that effect on me. I was still jst getting on with life.

    With abbott i our life style is threatened. Would ever be able to vote hi m out.

    Sorry must be having a bad day.

  5. guytaur @ 3262

    BH

    It is front page of SMH. Apparently has been discussed here on PB. My take is that it is a strategic leak to make voters wake up.
    Those of the view that bemused has espoused would see this as a good thing. It says to voters all or nothing. Get Abbott and you lose the NBN and the rest.

    I don’t think I have quite expressed that view, but I do see the merit in it. I think others have been more explicit in expressing such views.

    I am all for ‘muscling up’ and getting stuck into the opposition in a very robust fashion.

  6. [Kevin Sheedy ‏ @Kevin_Sheedy
    Thank you to PM Julia Gillard for supporting the Prime Minister’s Cup between the GIANTS and Western Bulldogs at Manuka Oval this Saturday.
    Retweeted by Dafid]

    Onya Sheeds! I know he’s promoting GWS but he has stood up for the PM in the past.

  7. Abbott’s favourite words seem to be ‘get it’. He now ‘gets it’ about child care. The PM doesn’t get it’ on just about everything. I think we all ‘get it’ that Tone is incapable of using words of more than one syllable.

  8. my say

    Agree with your comparison, although I felt unhappy the whole time Howard was PM. With Abbott, we are continually on the edge of a descent into some sort of Liberal hell. Not because of the PM, but because of the way the Lib caucus is behaving.

  9. my say

    Chin up. The PM and DPM are currently overseas. Of course, the ratbags timed it perfectly to suit them.

    Slipper has so far done the right thing. See what happens next

  10. Guytaur me to

    For all our sake

    I trust your judgement whats your take on this please

    Also would rather be in melbourne so i know whats happening instead of waiting for phone call
    Re baby

  11. bemused

    I am sorry if I have misrepresented your views. MY memory was of your muscle up strategy and that included pointing out to voters what they would lose with Abbott as Prime Minister.
    If that memory is incorrect I do sincerely apologise.

  12. Oh, that’s the bloody end.
    [Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke
    Tony Abbott now pleading with Australians not to let their embarrassment of the Govt cloud their view of Australia.]

  13. His other words are is listen

    All words as leonie says, also are of course used by this type of personality

    Better feed the toddler bye

  14. my say

    I think short term major damage to government. Long term I think major damage to News Limited. Outcome for Slipper and Ashby cloudy.

  15. lizzie

    I have not bothered following Latika’s tweets since last week. She has been giving me the shits. She always telegraphs Abbott’s brainfarts, but nothing on govt announcing policies.

  16. This is “it”???

    “Sexual harassment”?

    This piece of fluff?

    Courtesy of the SMH’s reporter, Louise Hall.

    [Alleged text messages

    Mr Ashby claims that, on or about February 1, 2012, about 7pm, the following text message exchange took place after Mr Slipper did an interview with the Sunshine Coast Daily, against Mr Ashby’s advice.

    Mr Ashby: “You’re not funny! I can’t believe you called her! We’ll have to clean this mess up now!! F— f— f—“.

    Mr Slipper: “Relax my friend! x”.

    Mr Ashby: “It’s so very hard to when you care about the bloke they keeping f—– over. I hope like hell they don’t f— u over with this report.”

    Mr Slipper: “Xxx”.

    Mr Slipper: “Would be good if you here but perhaps we are not close enough?”

    {a few more messages are sent}

    At 10pm, the following text exchange allegedly took place:

    S: “Haha where’s Tim tonight?”

    A: “Missing”.

    S: “Gone to pick up lol”.

    S: “Do you think timbo is closer to me than you?”

    A: “Yeah but that’s to be expected. He’s known u longer. That sort of stuff doesn’t worry me.”

    S “Gone to prick {sic} up whom? And closer to you than pete?”

    A: “No he’s closer to u. I hardly know him”.

    A: “A random root lol”.

    A: “I gotta stop being rude to my friends. Text u when I leave”.

    S: “U getting roks off. Pity”.

    S: “If you interested we could be closer?”

    S:”?”

    A: “I think we’re good already. I’m happy seeing Tim being closest. I hate stepping on toes”.

    S: “:)”

    S: “Your call if u want to keep degrees of separation. No toes”.

    S: “I told him positrion {sic} open”.

    S: “But your call and no hard feelings in that you only want businesslike contact. In that event of the difficulty in our personla”.

    A: “I don’t know what type of contact you expect Peter. Perhaps u should define that u would like and I can then be clearer on my position.”

    S: “U want something more? U brillianmt {sic} at massages”.

    A: “No I’m happy the way things are. I care for u Pete but the massage is as far as it goes. Life’s a lot more simpler when it’s business and a few drinks after work”.

    S: “Oh”.

    S: “No problems and thanks for I”.

    A: “All good”.

    S: “Sorry things not working out but appreciate your frankness. In future in circumstances please arrange all communcoations”.

    S: “Thu tim as cannot guarantee availability. Sorry u missing syd harbour creises {sic: cruises}”.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/slipper-used-position-to-harass-staffers-court-documents-20120423-1xfty.html#ixzz1sp5X87B2

    Unbelieveable that this kind of ambiguous exchange was ever trumped up as “harassment”.

    And then this:

    [At the end of that week, Mr Ashby claims Mr Slipper made a “vindictive and deliberately spiteful” jibe about his weight, knowing that Mr Ashby previously had issues with his weight, saying “you look fat in that”.]

    LOL.

  17. Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke
    Tony Abbott now pleading with Australians not to let their embarrassment of the Govt cloud their view of Australia.

    FMD!!! how dare he say that!! AAAAAARRRGGGHHHHH!!!!

  18. [I am all for ‘muscling up’ and getting stuck into the opposition in a very robust fashion.]

    bemused – listen to the Emmo interview. He took exactly the right tack and if the media is not going to report the hypocrisy of the Oppn then Labor has to do it.

    I think it’s time, when the PM gets back, for her to keep on getting through her agenda but also to fire up a bit when policy is distorted by Abbott.

  19. [Mr Slipper: “Would be good if you here but perhaps we are not close enough?”]

    This, in the context of Slipper’s PR flack, Ashby, not being close enough to attend a press interview slipper was doing, is perfectly proper.

    F—, F—-, F—-: the media is dumb.

  20. [Lets see a brave journo ask Mr Abbott about Mr Windsors comments of bring it on the floor of Parliament.]

    Guytaur – Pyne’s line this morning was that the Opposition know that the Govt. is corrupt and incompetent, the public know what the Oppn thinks and it is now up to the Indies to bring on a vote of no confidence in the Govt. to show that they have integrity or wtte

  21. guytaur @ 3319

    bemused

    I am sorry if I have misrepresented your views. MY memory was of your muscle up strategy and that included pointing out to voters what they would lose with Abbott as Prime Minister.
    If that memory is incorrect I do sincerely apologise.

    No apology sought or required.

    Just didn’t want to take credit for what others had said.

    But I am in agreement.

  22. [That’s your opinion]

    It is, Pegasus.

    I never act as though I speak for a party. It could prove just as embarrassing as your amateurish attempt at Green p.r.

  23. Latika Bourke ‏ @latikambourke
    Tony Abbott now pleading with Australians not to let their embarrassment of the Govt cloud their view of Australia.

    My pre-loved bum fodder has more class than Tony Abbott.

  24. So the Canberra press gallery has officially given up and admitted that they are imcapable of understanding and writing about the budget. In its place they’ll dedicate acres of print space to the thrilling issue of ‘homosexual sex’, as the HUN calls it.

    We really are very poorly served by these jerks.

  25. [Shane Wright ‏ @swrightwestoz
    PPI result way down on the market forecast for 0.5% increase in the quarter

    9m Shane Wright ‏ @swrightwestoz
    Fourth consecutive quarterly fall in PPI. Domestic prices down 0.1%, import prices down 1.5%

    10m Shane Wright ‏ @swrightwestoz
    Producer prices down 0.3% in March quarter … sign of deflation pressures ahead
    ]

    RBA will now be looking at 0.5% May cut. If they were worried about inflation, how about deflation.

  26. [Chin up. The PM and DPM are currently overseas. Of course, the ratbags timed it perfectly to suit them.

    Slipper has so far done the right thing. See what happens next]
    Sound advice Vic. Slipper may yet win out.

  27. BH @ 3331

    bemused – listen to the Emmo interview. He took exactly the right tack and if the media is not going to report the hypocrisy of the Oppn then Labor has to do it.

    Where can I listen to it?

  28. Mumble thinks that the “distraction” will be advantage to Labor as Swan never breaks through with his budgets anyway.
    Sorry, lost the link.

  29. Latika Bourke was given a little swipe by the P.M., today from o/s, over her continual need to question ‘the premise’ behind the question which obviously irritates Latika and her colleagues who expect her to accept their dumb shit as fact.

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