Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. kezza and BB

    The whole text conversation thing is very unclear. We know Mr Ashby is gay. We do not know that Mr Slipper is. Straight friends have asked gay people what they are into before.

  2. Keep your chin up MM

    Actually, I think you are looking through the glass darkly.

    It is true the polls are not good for the progressives at the moment, and a current election would see a wipe out based on the so-called voting intentions.

    Whiney Piney was a wishin’ and a hopin’ and a prayin’ for an “election now” right this morning. Of course!

    Into its 7th year in office in 2013, Labor would have to fight for a next term regardless.

    Political conditions in Oz have not been this way for nearly 70 years and most of the electorate find it hard to cope with a finely balanced situation. They like to get a “winner” at an election, let them get on with it, for good or bad, then either reaffirm or chuck out next time around.

    After 2010 a set of circumstances arose which has run counter to this comfortable view of the political world by Joe Voting Public.

    On the other hand, most people most of the time, pay little or no heed to politics.

    This whole Slipper thing, for instance, has washed over the public in 3-4 days I would guess, 75% of the electorate have only taken a passing interest in it. The sex thing they like, the ramifications they really don’t get.

    What is said about a continuing “sense of crisis” is partly correct.

    There is no real crisis of course, but plenty of distractions – which, when a government is living from day to day, is something an opposition – and an unprincipled media – can play with.

    At the outset in 2010, many wise commentators said we would be in for a rough ride, while others said the polls would be poor for months.

    These predictions are true and will continue to be until the next election.

    Labor will have to battle to stay on its feet for the remainder of its term. The fact that it has, and is likely to do so – with an ounce of luck – will be looked on in years to come as a great achievement.

    The old cliche is that a week is a long time in politics, but it is a truism.

    Was it not so long ago the conservative press were gloating about the demise of the Left in Europe – especially in the UK, France and Germany?

    Right now it would seem the the current President of France could be replaced by somebody from the Left, I don’t think the next leader in Germany will be from the Right and I gather the bottom has fallen out for the Conservatives in opinion polls in the UK.

    And to top the list off, I would be surprised to see a Republican in the White House after November.

    As I said, a week is a long time in politics. Most of politics is a circus.

  3. tricot

    One reason why Tasmania may not have so dire polls for the government is they have had over a decade of experience with minority government.

  4. Why do the french do second round elections?

    Surely having preferences would be a much, much better idea. Even optional preferences.

  5. DannyL – I thought Abbott said that he would approve $1 limit machines and that was what Wilkie asked for in the first place, I think.

  6. drowner

    The French voting system is adapting to modern times from a very old one. As such it is more difficult to do voting reform.

    Just look at the Federal Voting System in Australia. Any reform of that is always greeted with suspicion. What are politicians trying to cheat us with now?

  7. Goodness more drive by shootings in Sydney. What is going on?

    Must be PM Gillard’s fault. 🙁 Note that Fatty O’Barrell isn’t being put to question about Law and Order issues as would a Labor Govt.

    I seem to remember a lot of criticism re state governments coming down hard on bikie gangs awhile back.

  8. [Paul Bongiorno ‏ @PaulBongiorno
    The worst case scenario for Labor fronting today’s SMH is intriguing. Just who is the nameless senior Labor strategist and his agenda?]

    What is this about? Has anybody read the article?

  9. J2

    BOF is getting a hard time about Bikie Gangs. He has put legislation in place. Everyone is waiting to see what legal action is taken and decision by the High Court as a consequence.

  10. Thanks tricot. I’ll try. The Reds losing on Friday night meant the weekend didnt start well… and then to wake up to this saturday morning… grrrrrrr….. 🙁

  11. BH

    It is front page of SMH. Apparently has been discussed here on PB. My take is that it is a strategic leak to make voters wake up.
    Those of the view that bemused has espoused would see this as a good thing. It says to voters all or nothing. Get Abbott and you lose the NBN and the rest.

  12. [rosemour
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 10:37 am | Permalink
    I’m looking beyond all this now.
    Once Abbott assumes the Priministership later this year – probably around september/October) he will finally come out as the total nutjob he is. Power will make him even crazier. The electorate will be absolutely stunned at the transformation and scared sh+tless. The ALP will assume their usual hippie-love-bead-supine-gutless-not-a-bloddy-clue mode of political strategics and the Abbott ‘government’ will limp on for a term only to lose in a landslide to an ALP Green coalition government in late 2015.
    Well, that’s what I saw in my coffee grounds this morning]

    With NewsLtd backing him ha ha.

  13. Runoff French Presidential Election Polling, 22 April

    Ifop: 54.5-45.5 to Hollande vs. Sarkozy
    Ipsos: 54-46 to Hollande vs. Sarkozy
    CSA: 56-44 to Hollande vs. Sarkozy

    So if polls remain the way they are, Hollande will be elected in the May 6 election.

    It should be an interesting year in France. If the Socialist party (alone or with allies) win the 103 seats it needs in the Assembly to win a majority in the June elections, then the Left will hold the Senate, Assembly and the Elysée.

  14. Guytaur,

    At the risk of appearing elitist would doubt the public is politically sophisticated enough to pick up on that. Most people care and know next to nothing about politics / policy.

    If that were different the political dynamics right now would be reversed.

  15. [Once Abbott assumes the Priministership later this year – probably around september/October) he will finally come out as the total nutjob he is.]
    Don’t go betting your house on it. It sounds like you think Slipper is guilty on all counts. He doesn’t.

  16. [It is in fact why the whole Slipper thing is tainting all politicians. It questions the integrity of all. It is just the Coalition is too stupid to see that.]

    The price is high when you deal with Murdoch but the fools only have their eyes on the trophy.

  17. I caught Emmo on Breakfast this morning. He did really well. I wish we saw performances like that from the Government more often.

  18. Guytaur,

    Speaking generally and not specifically I’m dubious about “unnamed sources” for a number of reasons. It’s just another of the problems I have with so-called news media.

  19. [Twitter reporting that Ashby has got himself an agent.

    3275

    victoria

    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    GG

    Someone mentioned something about that earlier.]

    See the great Shellbell at 3236

  20. GG

    Ashby should have done that before publication. A lawyer and an agent to protect his interests. He is dealing with the Murdoch Empire after all.

  21. Cuppa

    It is not like the polling information was kept secret. Someone from SMH could have been part of debate here on PB for example.

  22. Shellbell,

    There are costs ramifications if you don’t send a letter of demand off before suing someone. To the best of my knowledge they apply in the Federal jurisdiction too.

  23. Burgey

    That is certainly the case in some jurisdictions and there is a Cth bill on this as well but I am not sure if it has come into law.

    I will look later.

  24. Burgey

    Obviously this Ashby guy is financially well off, if he is able to engage an agent, and risk costs by not sending an initial letter of demand

  25. [It is in fact why the whole Slipper thing is tainting all politicians. It questions the integrity of all. It is just the Coalition is too stupid to see that.]
    The Slipper affair tarnishes the two major parties and reinforces the perception for many that both parties lack integrity.

    The Slipper affair does not reflect on the Greens Party parliamentarians at all.

    Reported comments from Christine Milne and Adam Bandt:
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Slipper-stands-aside-until-claims-resolved-TLBMT?OpenDocument&src=am&utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=33708&utm_campaign=am&modapt=news
    [Australian Greens Leader Christine Milne said the speaker of the house was a “very senior role which must command respect”.

    “At the same time, the presumption of innocence must be respected,” she said in a statement.

    Adam Bandt, who represents the Greens in the lower house, said he respected Mr Slipper’s decision to stand down.

    But he warned against turning parliament into a court.

    “The separation of powers should be upheld,” he said.]

  26. trawler
    From what’s said in hereEmmo did a great job, but Sky News doesn’t see it that way. They are running on wtte Leading Labor Minister Doesn’t Trust Peter Slippper. Apparently Emmerson would not say he trusted Slipper during his interview this morning. That’s about it as far as Sky is concerned. Oh yes – and Emmo though Slipper had done a great job as speaker addded as an afterthought.

  27. Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on three separate occasions (1923-24, 1924-29 and 1935-37).

    His view of the Press:

    [He attacked the press lords for using “direct falsehood, misrepresentation, half-truths, the alteration of the speaker’s meaning … What the proprietorship of these papers is aiming at is power, but power without responsibility – the prerogative of the harlot through the ages.”]

    Nothing changes.

  28. I haven’t seen any reference to Peter Slipper being “embattled” or “beleaguered” so it can’t be too serious.

  29. [The Slipper affair does not reflect on the Greens Party parliamentarians at all.]

    Oh please, Pegasus, that is really silly spin. What Murdoch is up to is damaging for all.

  30. Ashby has got himself an agent because he’s now a ‘celebrity’. He’ll be appearing on Dancing With the Stars as soon as he can be assured that his costumes won’t make him look fat. He’ll have a special flattering costumes clause in his contract. He’s also looking at some mobile phone promotions with special emphasis on the text-saving ability and a new unbreakable case to ensure your phone survives the odd temper tantrum chucking. I believe he has also been approached to promote a new line in shower screens with modesty panels.

  31. drowner

    French Elections – the first round knocks out the others and leaves on two for the second round. If anyone gets more that 60%, I think, in the first round there is no second round.

  32. I would not be surprised if Senator Conroy is in meetings with Senator Bob Brown looking at ways to strengthen legislation to hold the media to standards of truth, honesty accuracy, fairness to all especially when legal action has commenced.

    I am not saying this is happening. To put it shorter. Way to shoot yourself in the foot Murdoch Empire.

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