Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. Oakeshott & Windsor are hanging on for dear life to Gillard, because they know that they’ll be the first casulties if there’s an early election.
    Those two are more about their own self interest than ideals.

  2. [Oakeshott & Windsor are hanging on for dear life to Gillard, because they know that they’ll be the first casulties if there’s an early election.]

    Garbage, absolute garbager. Windsor will win any election, held any time. What tories really hate about him is that he has Abbott’s number, day in, day out.

  3. Vic. I know they will, and that the govt isn’t about to fall. I’m just worried about the lasting impression these events leave on voters. Its the compounding and accumulating effect of them. Whether what the Lib filth say is right or wrong, it all leaves an impression. Budging these impressions is what concerns me the most.

  4. Janice2:

    From day 1, Wilkie was out in the media telling one and all that if the government did not get his pokie reforms debated and passed into law by …(whatever date) then he would pull the plug and withdraw his vote. He did absolutely nothing in the way of elbow grease to sell his pokie reforms to the rest of his minority govt colleagues and when the numbers were not there, he blamed the PM and accused her of breaking their deal. His arrogance and sense of self precludes compromise or logical reasoning.

    Yep, that’s pretty much my reading of him. I recall an interview he gave earlier this year after he pulled the plug on the ALP. His message was that he’d be voting for the pokies reforms, and that they’re a step in the right direction, but that a promise is a promise so he would be withdrawing his support for the ALP. When asked to contrast the attitude toward problem gambling of the ALP and the Lib/Nats, he wouldn’t go near it.

    I’m not going to attempt to guess his thoughts, but I don’t like what he’s saying there. The message seems to be, “I don’t care if they couldn’t give me exactly what I wanted, the fact is they didn’t, so screw them.”

  5. mm

    Of course, the govt is going to be pummelled further in the opinion polls. The msm and Abbott have done a stirling job in that department.
    The govt need to press ahead, the reforms are around the corner, they need all the steely resolve available to them!!

  6. Victoria,

    Wilkie, well who bloody knows!!

    Chances are Wilkies will vote with Abbott. Wilkie wants to hang on to his seat and thinks Abbott will direct preferences to him.

  7. Laming, I seem to remember, had a problem with printing allowance. if so, it would have been criminal rather than civil.

    If certain Noaltion members want to relieve themselves they should check the direction of the wind first.

  8. slipper also said this hours ago

    [PeterSlipperMP @RakMaew mostly to and from the Airport. Much cheaper than Comcar.
    about 12 hours ago in reply to RakMaew]

  9. Thnaks for the Andrew Elder link, confessions @ 2973.
    [Hockey protests that his speech was intended for a European audience, but why would they wish to hear from him? He voted against the measures that gave Australia its world-best economy, and in government backed policies that gave away windfall gains so that they would fuel a bubble rather than build infrastructure and social investments. For Australians, his speech is a nostalgia act for a lucky government rather than an action plan for a responsible one. Given recent bipartisan noises over the inadequacy of unemployment benefits, Liberal policies like the Great Big New Paid Parental Leave Tax, and certain political and economic realities pointed out by Peter Brent, you have to be sure that Hockey’s tough talk is sheer wind, and given his failure at winning over his current set of colleagues it will not translate into policy any time soon. ]

    Elder’s predictions may sometimes miss, as he himself readily concedes (albeit, I hope he’s right about the big one), but he is prepared to discuss the issues at a depth totally missing from the MSM.

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/hockeys-entitlement.html

  10. [Chances are Wilkies will vote with Abbott. Wilkie wants to hang on to his seat and thinks Abbott will direct preferences to him.]

    If the government went with your attitude to Wilkie, janice2, there would be no “Chances” in it. Fortunately cooler heads prevail.

  11. http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/1871-the-politisation-of-the-rba-labor-or-the-coalition

    [22 Apr 2012
    he Politisation of the RBA – Labor or the Coalition?
    Thankfully Paul Howes, National Secretary of the Australian Workers Union and Garry Weaven, Chair of Industry Funds Management, have zero influence on economic policy. Last week, both made some absurd points and claims regarding monetary policy, the inflation target, the Australian dollar and operations of the RBA.

    Both Howes and Weaven revealed the shallowness of their experience by showing little or no understanding of the critical importance of the inflation target. It is imperative that the inflation target remains in place because on-going low inflation is the best thing policy makers can deliver if there is to be a boost to competitiveness, productivity and with those, employment and real wages.

    There is also zero chance that the RBA charter is going to change, at least under this government, nor will the inflation target change, nor will there be any material changes to how the RBA works.

    Howes’ and Weaven’s comments deserve criticism, as do others who say and write misguided, factually flawed or faulty economic analysis. The economy is too important for ill-informed commentary and mis-guided policy prescriptions.

    Which brings us to the point made by an ignorant and sometimes politically biased few that the RBA now is somehow being politicised, losing its independence or being lent upon by the Government.

    That clearly is a fantasy.

    If it were true, the only way it would show up would be in the RBA having inappropriate monetary policy settings and not achieving its inflation target. There is no other way to even vaguely support the claim of political interference or undue influence.

    Is there any other way any such politicisation of the RBA Board would show up?

    …………..

    And just getting back to the key point in this – if the RBA was being politicised, it would show up in monetary policy being too loose for too long and inflation building to a level above the target. The exact opposite is happening right now.

    In the last 20 years, there has only been one example where monetary policy has been too easy for too long and that was in the period from 2005 to 2007 when every member of the RBA Board has been appointed by the incumbent government. Look at these facts and make up your own mind about the issue of politicising the RBA and monetary policy.]
    worth a read

  12. Any 1 July handouts will be pocketed without an ounce of appreciation.

    Agreed on that, but the world won’t cave in either. Most of the Lib/Nat strategy relates to what the ALP are going to do to you. That one’s gone as a scare campaign after July 1.

    I’m not surprised the scare campaigns have been so effective. People always worry about the future, and big-ticket policies always have a level of uncertainty about them that can be exploited. Until they beome reality. Then everyone breathes a sigh of relief and gets on with their lives.

    It won’t translate into an immediate boost. But things will probably drift back a bit. There’ll be less reason to swing the bat at the ALP, because the worst didn’t come to pass.

  13. [Ashby will be warned off by his lawyers from saying anything.]

    Too late for Ashby to claim the high ground, after leaking everything to Lewis.

    This really does stink to high heaven.

  14. Putting a LNP member in the Speaker’s chair if fraught with danger. I can see them appointing one of their more odious members – and they certainly have a plethora of those – then ejecting or naming one or more government members. Abbott then uses this imbalance in numbers to actually get a SSSO motion or worse passed. Keep Burke in the chair until Slipper returns – which may perhaps be even before parliament resumes.

  15. [Vic. I know they will, and that the govt isn’t about to fall. I’m just worried about the lasting impression these events leave on voters. Its the compounding and accumulating effect of them. Whether what the Lib filth say is right or wrong, it all leaves an impression. Budging these impressions is what concerns me the most.]

    The Libs know that any mud they throw will stick. The allegation gets the headlines, the retraction or the correction does not.

    The papers today made me feel sick too. When I read the papers pontificating that this will overshadow the budget.. it’s just too much. They could CHOOSE to give the Budget fair coverage, but they choose not too. THEY have the power to balance the coverage of the two stories, yet they will find any old reason to see the government drowned out. They hold too much power to set the narrative and the agenda.

  16. Thornleigh “Labor” Man,

    [Oakeshott & Windsor are hanging on for dear life to Gillard, because they know that they’ll be the first casulties if there’s an early election.
    Those two are more about their own self interest than ideals.]

    Rubbish. They’re among the most principled and courageous you would find in the whole Parliament (IMO).

    How easy would it have been to side with Abbott after the election. Home free.

    But they resisted being leant on, and went with principles instead.

    And look at the filth that’s come their way after their decision. Death threats, vilification by the Coalition and media, endless harassment by the hate-spitters on Liberal talkback radio.

    Here is an example of Coalition/media vilification http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/29688.html

    With all this it would have been so easy to just say “Stuff It” and switch sides. But they’ve stuck to their principles on broadband, action on climate change, etc.

    So you’ve got it the wrong way around, Thornleigh “Labor” Man. They ARE about ideals rather than self-interest.

    Something some people would never fathom….

  17. Further to my above: don’t forget the ALP have a couple of big “what the Coalition are going to do to you” attacks to call on. WorkChoices (it never goes away) and Hockey’s intention to slash welfare. They could both take on some prominence over the next 18 months.

  18. [janice2, do you have any evidence of a preference deal with Abbott, by Wilkie, or are you supposing?]

    If Wilkie fails to support the government and it loses a crucial vote (esp Confidence or the Budget), what would anyone bet on his winning his HoR seat again in 2013? Not even a brass razoo, because he’d get no Labor preferences, so most likely to go Labor or Green?

    Wilkie tends to behave as a mouth in search of a microphone & reporters. Can his ego stand the possibility of no longer being a voice in the Nation’s most important legislative forum? No longer having the MSM hanging on his every word about his intentions?

    Even if he strikes a deal with Abbott (best it include his swearing on something so sacred Pell won’t absolve him if he breaks his oath, and signed in his own blood) will the Liberals find him a seat so remote few know about him & so safe he wins?

  19. This “continual crisis” is a creature of the msm. The voters are constantly told there is a crisis.
    Lenore Taylor
    [Even worse, it will not be able to deliver the one thing the electorate appears to crave – stable, steady administration – and instead a sense of perpetual crisis will continue.
    That means voters are more likely to stick with their previous assessment – they’re fed up with the chaos and the government is a disappointment.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/budgeting-on-revival-amid-sense-of-perpetual-crisis-20120422-1xf51.html#ixzz1sootbgov

  20. [Further to my above: don’t forget the ALP have a couple of big “what the Coalition are going to do to you” attacks to call on. WorkChoices (it never goes away) and Hockey’s intention to slash welfare. They could both take on some prominence over the next 18 months.]

    The Coalition believes that sex scandals and stunts are more important than policy.

    Speaking to some people in the checkout queue this morning (men and women) I was gratified to hear that several of them are sick to death of this approach. They are disgusted with phoney “scandals” being purveyed as truth, and as substitutes for solid policy. They were fully aware of the tactics used by News in the UK and one said, “This is just News Of The World stuff. They think it worked in England, and they think it’ll work here. I’ve had a gut-full of it.”

  21. JG was able to form minority govt.
    Able to pass difficult legislation which includes
    Carbon price
    Separation of Telstra
    NBN
    Mining tax
    Means testing Private Insurance
    Abolish the Building Commission which the trade unions absolutely detested
    Get Slipper as speaker which negated one vote for the coalition
    Head off challenge by Rudd and Get Bob Carr
    Handled Qantas matter without a hitch

    have I left anything out?

  22. [The allegation gets the headlines, the retraction or the correction does not.]

    Exactly. It’s a clear and simple campaign, with the full support of the MSM.

  23. [Anthony J McClellan‏@antmac9Reply
    Retweet

    Favorite
    · Open

    #slipper James Ashby. In response to media requests . James will not be making any comment today. #auspol]

    Anthony McClellan is ex-ACA and I think has a show called Spin Doctors (or is involved with it) on the ABC.

    I met him in the context of a high profile case. I am not convinced that engaging professional media spokespeople is a winner.

  24. shellbell

    This is an interesting aspect of the law case

    [vexnews @mrsbracknell could be, but there are odd circumstances with this whole thing, like why was there no letter of demand before writ?
    3 minutes ago in reply to mrsbracknell]

  25. TLM @ 3200

    Oakeshott & Windsor are hanging on for dear life to Gillard, because they know that they’ll be the first casulties if there’s an early election.
    Those two are more about their own self interest than ideals.

    That is just a dopey statement Evan.

    If they were only acting in self interest they would have backed Tone to become PM after the 2010 election.

  26. I’m looking beyond all this now.
    Once Abbott assumes the Priministership later this year – probably around september/October) he will finally come out as the total nutjob he is. Power will make him even crazier. The electorate will be absolutely stunned at the transformation and scared sh+tless. The ALP will assume their usual hippie-love-bead-supine-gutless-not-a-bloddy-clue mode of political strategics and the Abbott ‘government’ will limp on for a term only to lose in a landslide to an ALP Green coalition government in late 2015.
    Well, that’s what I saw in my coffee grounds this morning.

  27. TLM

    The thing Windsor and Oakshott know is that integrity wins more votes than any amount of political games.

    It is in fact why the whole Slipper thing is tainting all politicians. It questions the integrity of all. It is just the Coalition is too stupid to see that.

  28. ABC24 replayed a bit of Emmo. He wasn’t holding back.

    Now showing Pyne with his “more in sorrow than in anger” drivel.

  29. Victoria

    Letters of demand are a bit passe although in QLD (state claims) there are a stack of requirements before you kick off proceedings for personal injuries.

    The same situation may not apply for federal claims

  30. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 10:06 am | Permalink
    Where is James Ashby?

    Why has no-one interviewed him?

    He can’t be all that shy, as he gave advance notice of his court filings to Steve Lewis?

    Why so quiet now?

    Where is he?]
    Give him a break, BB

    He’s probably stitching the evidence together – like that item of clothing he ripped up after Slipper “spitefully” taunted him about looking fat in a new purple shirt he had bought in Canberra.

    Especially considering that Tim (third person) thought Ashby was a nice twink!

    “Twink” is a gay slang term describing a young or young-looking gay man (18–21 age category) with a slender, ectomorph build, little or no body hair, and no facial hair. Someone older than 21 with similar looks and build is said to be “twinkish.”

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