Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. zoomster @285,

    That is exactly what happened.

    Too much noise all mixed up together at the moment but that does not stop some pushing and pushing their lines.

  4. BH

    Stick with Aristotle who knows something about the subject matter. The Kouk knows less.

    See my post at 274 – the Federal Newspolls around the NSW election were (ALP first):

    46:54 – 8 March (18 days before election)
    51:49 – 22 March (4 days before election)
    45:55 – 5 April (10 days after NSW election)

    The Kouk is making his point based on the second and third polls, ignoring or ignorant of the first. The second was determined to be an aberration on PB which it looks when compared to the ones which proceed and succeed it.

  7. crystal ball time

    after howie was obliterated at the 2007 election a lot here, including moi, said that the next Fib PM wasnt yet in parliament

    I think that person is now here- Campbell Newman (ironic surname btw)

    My scenario

    Abbott will stay till after he loses the next Fed election

    newman then is parachuted into a seat OR does his qld stunt again

    I suspect abbott is factoring in this possibility

  9. peg

    it’s not ‘just because you didn’t comment’ or ‘you’re not here 24/7″ – you did comment. You responded to the post and reaffirmed that you would vote the same way next time (and didn’t deny voting for Ballieu, as you still don’t, but instead go to pains to point out it made no difference), and made a point of saying that you didn’t vote Green on environmental grounds.

    So you answered the question.

    [And yet I have posted on many occasions that I welcome impartial and reasoned debate and analysis about Greens policies.]

    Yet you never do when people actually question you about these.

    Anyway, stop evading the questions, which are really very simple:

    Do you condemn Ballieu abandoning the carbon emissions reductions target for Victoria?

    Do you agree with Barber (Greens MP)’s statement that this doesn’t matter?

  11. Gusface,

    I don’t think Newman is looking at leaving QLD for Federal Politics.

    But I do think it (the newman manouevre) provides a precedent for Bob Carr to replace Gillard as PM. But I don’t think Carr has got a handle on the domestic Australian policy scene quite yet.

  12. vic

    I think the qld thingy has given newman kudos that abbott never had,also the Fibs arent going to keep on with tones post Fed election

    the dynamics of Abbott/Newman will be interesting

    (aamoi did abbott campaign in qld)

  14. Bear in mind Newspoll does Telephone polling of landlines. There is no mobile phone number directory. Essential includes online polling in its results.
    Does this mean Newspoll factor of error is greater than that of Essential?
    On Insiders they showed their poll of polls with no movement. Advantage Coalition.
    Has this changed by one poll using methods relying on people being at home to answer a phone at mealtimes?
    This applies to all polls. Methodolgy, what and how questions are asked makes a difference to the result.
    ABC Radio local at least at 702 Sydney Morning is getting lisners to suggest a question to be asked by Essential polling per poll when polling.

  15. bg

    not at the mo obviously

    but
    next Fed election 2013

    next qld election 2015

    he can do his first term wonders and riding high off that be the Fed saviour

    (Who else do the fibs have?)

  17. This is from the political sword.

    Abbott’s atrophy
    Supporters of Tony Abbott will not enjoy this piece. They will likely read only part of it, and rejecting its proposition, will go elsewhere where writers say nice thinks about the man who wants to be the next leader of this nation, the man who insists he will be the ‘next elected Prime Minister’, the man who may succeed at the next election unless the electorate wakes up to his shallowness and the darkness of his nature.

    This piece proposes that Tony Abbott is on the decline, and that this will accelerate. ]
    [
    http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2012/03/26/Abbott’s-atrophy.aspx

  18. Yes Gusface 307: it’s certainly possible, assuming Abbott loses and assuming that Newman can ride his wave of personal popularity for a few years a la Beattie.

    Both of Can-Do’s parents were Federal Cabinet ministers and, although of Tasmanian origin, I believe he largely grew up in Canberra. I assume that his ultimate political ambitions have always been at the Federal level, which makes him a different sort of beast to some of the other “saviours” from the State governments touted to shift to Canberra in recent decades: Dunstan, Joh B-P, Cain, Wran, Beattie, etc., but not Carr (who always expressed a preference for Federal politics and only ever went into State politics most reluctantly).

    He’s now landed up as the leader of a Government featuring an unprecedented throng of low grade oncers, including many strongly imbued with the outmoded Queensland National ideology. This underemployed and unruly group is going to be a nightmare to govern. A move to Canberra would already be looking very attractive to old Can-Do.

  24. bluegreen

    [But I do think it (the newman manouevre) provides a precedent for Bob Carr to replace Gillard as PM. But I don’t think Carr has got a handle on the domestic Australian policy scene quite yet.]

    Which is why I posted this earlier @ 242

    [Question for you all:

    Who was the last Senator to become PM?”

    DavidWH replied with Gorton

    and I asked @ 249

    [DavidWH

    Correct! Would it ever happen again do you think?]

    Carr has gravitas and can articulate an argument. People listen!

  25. joe2

    Not a black person in sight at the Conservative Teen.

    Rather blondies with hairdryer blown hair – although the young man looks like he has lipstick on

  27. gus

    you’re assuming Newman will be a success.

    I’m assuming he won’t be.

    1. High expectations – impossible to live up to. After 14 yrs, he’ll be expected to fix absolutely everything that’s wrong in Queensland. (Which is why first term govts usually face big swings against them)

    2. Lack of experience – as I’ve said before, Senators who go to the HoR usually crash and burn. MPs who change parties often crash and burn. The reason? They think they know what it’s about. Thus they also think they have nothing to learn.

    The transition from local govt (however big) to State is even harder.

    From which follows….

    3. Unwillingness to listen to advice. Why should he? He’s better than all the former LNP MPs, or they wouldn’t have made him leader from outside of Parliament. And the public servants advising him are the ones who got the last govt into this mess.

  29. I expect to see different results for Labor and Greens in Queensland in 18 months time.
    Already under State Labor the Great Barrier Reef has been in danger. An international icon as famous as the Grand Canyon. Newman wit Clive Palmer pressure will be no better friend to the reef than Labor has been. Already Minister Burke during an election campaign has been in the media making clear he Feds are responding to international pressure on this. Every tourism upported job will be voting Labor to save the reef from Clive Plmer and his coal and coal seam gas related quest for greed over nature proits.

  30. zoom

    i think newman has enough electoral “fat” to make his first term to be percieved as “good”

    My point is that there is no other “winner” out there, also newman has cred from being the highest elected fib (Brisbane Council) when the fibs electoral stocks were in the doldrums

    newman is the ONLY alterntive the Fibs have

    who else is there?

  32. bluegreen

    [And he would get the NSW voting as a bloc.]

    Not all of course there are many who wouldn’t give him the time of day but he is mature with a lot of life experience and understands the very nature of politics. As you say he also talks like a human being and he has presence.

  36. MTBW

    I am sorry. I meant NSW ‘Right’ faction. They got Rudd into power. They got Gillard into power. They divided over gillardrudd2.

  39. Vic

    I am not sure he has to contest any seat. But one could be found if needs be. Garrett etc…

    Garrett to the Senate for Carr into Maroubra.

  42. guytaur, another interesting issue worth contemplating, apart from the tendency of yoof to be not be available on landline, for polling purposes is what might be the effect of those called in to vote at the next election with new government legislation to target over a million, mostly young, missing voters.

    [The Electoral and Referendum Amendment (Maintaining Address) Bill 2011 will allow the AEC, of its own volition, to update the information of voters who have changed address, while the Electoral and Referendum Amendment (Protecting Elector Participation) Bill 2012 will allow it to initiate a first enrolment.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/direct-enrolment-will-just-make-democracy-easier-20120319-1vfl3.html?skin=text-only

  43. vic

    He like Gorton could be made PM while he is in the Senate go to an election and then a contest a safe ALP seat in the Reps – there are still a few around – to enter the Lower House.

    Pure speculation on my part I know but something has got to be done to save the furniture.

  45. Labor will not change Federal leaders before next election. Doing so once has hurt dramatically. Doing so twice means definite loss at next election.

  46. An interesting little tid bit from Andrew Elder.

    [On the day before he dismissed the Whitlam Government, Sir John Kerr attended St Ignatius’ College Riverview to give out prizes. He gave Tony Abbott some sort of consolation award for coming second in his class (beaten by someone who is unmarried and never had kids, but let’s not go there ( http://tiny.cc/j80sbw ). ]
    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/learning-from-margaret-whitlam.html?spref=tw

  48. So much for the mining tax killing off investment:

    In its annual political risk assessment of the mining industry, global resources consulting firm Behre Dolbear placed Australia at the top of its 25-nation ranking, ahead of Canada, the US and Brazil.

    Mr McCurdy says any investor concerns about the mining tax are mitigated by the quality of Australia’s resources, the ease and transparency of approvals, and the fact that many other countries are considering similar taxes.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-27/australia-tops-mine-investment-list/3914964

  49. [TheKouk Hockey wants govt to issue 30 yr bonds: locking Australia into govt debt for 3 decades! What will Joyce & Robb think? reuters.com/article/2012/0…
    about 1 hour ago]

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