A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).
Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.
In fact he was the only Senator to become PM.
[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk Close
Newspoll after NSW election saw a 6pt jump in Coalition 2PP; then it fell a net 3 points in next 3 polls: Today, after QLD, a 4 pt jump…
10:41 AM – 27 Mar 12]
joe2
agree.
Although I’d rather we won (obviously) I’d also rather that, if we lose, we leave a Labor legacy behind us.
TLM
[Queenslanders won’t forgive her for depriving their local boy of his job in June 2010 – even Craig Emerson admitted last night that the 2010 coup is still hurting the ALP in his state.]
Yes he did!
Phil Vee (from previous thread)
[Labor should not be allowing the Right to paint Greens as extreme.]
😆 Labor, including Gillard and many in her leadership team and caucus are attacking the Greens in exactly the same way.
Labor’s focus polling is obviously telling it that it is a vote loser to be seen to be in an alliance with the Greens.
Labor believes it is in their political self-interest to differentiate its brand 😉 by dissing the very party that enabled it to form minority government.
At the same time Labor expects left progressives to support its party rather than the Greens – the only remaining left progressive party.
Left progressives are leaving the ALP and joining the Greens because they know their voice will not be heard within the ALP.
Labor can not have it both ways.
Labor can not keep attacking the very people it needs to enable it to gain government.
Those who are calling for a coalition, as I once hoped for, are p$ssing in the wind.
Between late 2005 and until the 2007 federal election I worked on the Deakin Your Rights at Work campaign, essentially on behalf of the ALP.
I did this even though I was a Greens supporter knowing that the Greens Party had IR policies that were more in the interests of the workers than were Labor’s policies.
For 2 years I devoted my time to union / ALP campaign rather than the local Greens campaign, doorknocking, letterboxing, member of strategic planning and general committees, organising public forums, writing articles, manning stalls…….
Did the ALP abolish the ABCC in its first term? No, instead Rudd and Gillard continued with the anti-union rhetoric…”tough cop on the beat”.
Now, I direct my energy, passion and commitment to working exclusively on Greens campaigns.
The fact that Labor has alienated me to this degree ought to be considered but it wont be.
Smithe you will find that nioce wealthy suburbs have a choice of doctors charging $75 per visit, but in the battler areas doctors are scarce and you wait 3 weeks for an appointment. If its really urgent you go to hospital where the [same] doctor will see you.
When we are talking about provision of doctors I think the battler areas start just off the tram tracks.
Well folks, straight from the whippings will continue until morale improves book of management we have RMIT’s effort.
[RMIT academics really not happy about having to be happy at work
staff must ”promote the positive rather than the negative”
The union has advised staff who sign the framework to write an accompanying note saying they were forced to sign under duress ]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/rmit-academics-really-not-happy-about-having-to-be-happy-at-work-20120326-1vuob.html#ixzz1qGmXanEB
Victoria I disagree about Howard connecting with the people. He was able to communicate with ordinary people in a way the PM seems unable to do. Costello didn’t have that ability.
[poroti
Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 10:36 am | Permalink
bluegreen
Thanks for those links. I’ve wondered how much of the pessimism comes from people not having the value of their house going up the way it did during alot of the JWH years. Then as now they could struggle with a mortgage but back then they could still feel “rich” because of how much the value of the house had gone up.]
The changes since 07 and then moreso since 09 are massive:
-no certainty about rising house prices (falling in some areas)
-no certainty of annual pay rise/promotion
-no longer readily willing to buy that next appliance/new car (and the feel good factor associated with this)
-no longer get something each budget time
-and there have been genuine rises in utility bills (although falling grocery bills)
Match with this political uncertainty:
-hung parliament
-strange new taxes etc etc
People’s world view has moved right down the Maslow Hierarchy of needs.
I think the government first needs to get the diagnosis right. The mining boom/high dollar is only a tiny part of the picture. They need be honest with the rest of the picture and find meaningful ways to talk about the reality. And find ways to calm the populace and help them move through into an new era.
Baillieu cuts emmission targets.
I like order and consistency. If Baillieu oops Peter Ryan wants to export brown coal from Gippsland and burn all the litter on the forest floor then of course Victoria will blow its emmission reduction targets, its better to reduce the targets so that they are not exceeded.
OK they have some regard for the inner city soy latte swillers with solar PV on the rooves – but not much
I agree with DavidWH
The problem with Abbot is his failure to connect, his grating style and his ability to lie at will.
While Gillard is not loved, Abbott is despised by the majority of Australians.
His performance in (a) not winning over the country conservatives back when, and (b) his total inability to convince the public he would make a better PM, shows just how poor he is. The fact that he has no policies or contradictory ones is discussion for another day.
If he ever did get to be PM he would be a total dud and he would be in for as rough time as JG and then some. I am happy to stick the boots in should the time arise.
I for one, will not accept any “I will govern for all” shite from him should the worst come to the worst as he has proven to be, in opposition and government, as being unworthy of the job.
That he arouses so much antipathy from mild manner me surprises me sometimes. I cannot abide this destructive individual who will make Australia poorer in every which way.
DavidWH
Howard reminded me of Mr Magoo and he talked like him too. Did not work for me at all
peg
so you’re saying it’s OK for the Greens to scrutinise Labor but not for Labor to scrutinise the Greens?
Any political party should expect criticism, and to some extent, should embrace it. You only improve if you understand what you’re doing wrong.
And if a political party pretends to be something they’re not or takes claim for the achievements of others (as the Greens often do when it comes to environmental initiatives) then they should expect these things to be pointed out.
On a slight tangent, whilst we’re talking things Green, Larissa Walters on Q & A went down the ‘wouldn’t it be wonderful if we all drove electric cars’? line.
What hope have we got in tackling climate change when a Green Senator thinks electric cars (in the Australian context) is a solution??
DavidWH
Bribes at election time is what kept Howard in power and workdhoices was what lost it for him. Simple as that really. It had nothing to do with connecting with voters
DavidWH @ 241
I agree comrade, and note that you are accepting ALP policies and legislative program.
Also, the Fibs work assiduously, aided by the MSM and shockjocks to reinforce perceptions of untrustworthiness. This really does need to be addressed.
billie
the issue with Ballieu is that he supported and voted for the emissions targets prior to the election, and pointed to this as a sign of his commitment to climate change action during the election.
His backflip on this is far, far more serious than Gillard’s supposed ‘lie’ on carbon pricing.
If there was any consistency in politics, he would now be branded “Balliar’ and there would be rallies in the streets calling for A New Election Now.
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 10:43 am | Permalink
bg
Labor introduced a PPL scheme and families with teenagers are getting increased family payments now. The baby bonus is still policy. Your point is?]
My point is that people are expecting a new handout each budget. That’s two new handouts over 4-5 years in government (plus the original Rudd tax cuts makes three).
The expectations of what an economy should be like and what a government should do have diverged with reality since 2007. Labor has failed to communicate this and Abbott will fail to deal with it in government.
bluegreen
[Whats a tampa green?]
Changed from voting Labor to voting Greens over the Tampa incident in 2001. The Greens had a spike in support and membership over that…many of us continue to vote Greens and joined the party then or later. The Tampa was the beginning…..
Smithe
You are quite right about the Libs being smicks. The public expects Labor to be different. If they want smicks they will vote Liberal. Actually I should be clearer. Politicians should b e THEMSELVES. If they are naturally middle clasd and smick then be that. Never try to be what you are not. But also a little diversity and characters is good. The public LIKE colourful characters – Doogie, Barnyard, Hatter, even Abbott. Turnbull and Rudd have colour, albeit of a different kind, Albo has colour, Gillard has some colour too. Smith has none, Shorten not much, Combet none at all.
The public also like strength and security (often in direct conflict with colour). Rudd has strength, Hawke and Keating had strength as well as colour in high measure), Howard had no colour whatever but lots of strength, Latham had lots of colour but no strength. Combet has LOTS of strenght.
Bulk billing?? – where will I find that? Especially on a weekend. Sorry but successive governments have whittled the so called Medicare system to an extent that it no longer does the job it started with.
If you have no money you will not get medical treatment on a weekend any where near me. AND YES I have looked.
poroti
I once worked at a school where ‘low staff morale’ was identified as a major problem…so we had a compulsory inservice on how to be happy!
bluegreen
I’d add to your list the drying up of easy credit.
Many people I know borrowed against their equity for things like an annual holiday abroad.
Now they can’t do this (or similar).
What registers is “Once I could afford to go overseas every year, now I can’t” rather than “I never really could afford that overseas holiday to start with.”
Bemused I don’t have a problem with some of Labor’s policies just not all and I disagree with many of the current Coalition policies. I do however think both leaders are a liability for their parties.
A letter in the SMH today
“The massive swings against Labor are due to betrayal of trust. In NSW Kristina Keneally sold off power assets and immediately shut down Parliament. In Queensland, Anna Bligh did an about-turn over asset sales. Meanwhile, Julia Gillard disposed of Kevin Rudd in a callous way and did an about-turn on carbon tax. Gillard also wanted to horse-trade with Malaysia over desperate people, including children, requesting asylum.
Many ex-Labor voters once chose Labor because it was the party with a moral compass. Because people expected greater moral integrity from Labor, their sense of betrayal, mistrust and anger is palpable.
This, combined with Labor’s consistent shifting to the right, makes it irrelevant; it no longer stands for anything and completely lacks credibility.
John Bernacki South Penrith”
bluegreen
Yes the changes are massive. One thing that has amused me has been reading some economists complaining about us now saving too much and paying down debt. This after so many years of hearing economists telling us that for the good of the nation we needed be more like the Japanese when it came personal savings.
Leroy
TheKouk is working off a Newspoll (51-49 ALP) which was described as an aberration here in reaching his conclusion.
Full details as to second of the two polls and the fact that the first was an aberration set out here
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/04/05/newspoll-55-45-to-coalition/
daretotread
[Combet has LOTS of strength]
On that we are in complete agreement. Vote 1 Greg Combat (sic) 🙂
Poroti
I don’t understand why I haven’t heard the discussion of the benefits of frugality and saving from the government.
In many ways they should be trying to build up personal and family resilience.
[The elephant in the room Bluegreen – and I surprised given your thoughtful comments you have not given this point much recognition – is that Labor governs from day to day in survival mode.
We all tend to have short memories. For the first 6 months of government Labor had a hostile Senate with a paper thin majority in the HoR cobbled together with some good and indifferent support.
After this, to keep faith with Labor policies partly left in disarray by Rudd, Gillard has had to patch up and make the best of it.
I would suggest that fighting from this kind of corner does not give the government room for the “Grand Leadership Vision” stuff as if the majority were 20. Rudd had this and essentially threw it away.]
Its still pretty interesting how the coverage of minority government works. Anything bad is Gillard’s fault as if she had the mythical 20-seat majority, and anything good is only because of the indies/Greens. I like having the minority government system, but the skewed coverage irks me.
Morning All – Wondering if anyone can help or who has been through a similar issue…
Last month my Wife was made redundant as the company she worked for went into liquidation…This was on the cards for a while, major retail outlet with about 600 employees Australia wide, was in the news. Company was poorly managed and really failed to adapt to the new retail envirnoment. Anyway I thought bugger, there goes 2nd income for a while, time to tighten the belts etc. Given the debt owed by the company and that employees are unsecured creditors – I though she would be lucky to get any of her entitlements. Anyway we got a note from the liquidators itemising her entitlements owed, and indicating that we need to put in a claim with GEERS. GEERS stands for the General Rmployee Entitlements & Redundancy Scheme, and according to my brief research this was set up by Rudd/Gillard in 2009, to ensure that workers were paid their correct entitlements if companies go ino liquidation and cannot service their debts – this I think was on the back of a number of high profile business collapses that left workers without their entitlments. Anyway has anyone had a similar experience with the scheme, and is it likely she will get her full entitlemenst and how long does the claim process take.
As an aside read some articles in the MSM about the recievership then liquidation and comments in the comments section were all about labour bashing, accusing the Govt of causing the poor retail environment that caused the closure. I do not blame the Govt at all for this, as although the retail sector is very soft at present, I knew the company was not run well – and now I am just chuffed that she may be able to access her entitlemnts from a scheme set up by this Government in 2009.
DavidWH @ 271
Your retreat from the ‘dark side’ is under-way.
I will continue to counsel you, and do visit your good mum often and take her wise advice.
One poll and off we go again with all the ” sky falling in ” rants from the cheap seats.
Of course labor is in a bad spot at the moment but one poll is no reason to start jumping off cliffs.
Didn’t hear the same suspects contribute anything positive after Essential moved to the government yesterday.
Lets just see how it goes over the next few weeks and months before crying a river. Lets see how the government presents itself from here on and how it prosecutes its case before the “I told you so ” crowd can claim victory over the dying body of the party.
Be interested to see the comments from some here if polls are positive in the coming months. I am sure a few will take holidays. They will have nothing to automatically cut and paste.
Talk about groundhog day.
[ Just to be clear I am not from QLD or NSW. ]
Victoria, of that in both name and Jon Faine listener I am aware.
bluegreen @ 276
At an individual level, personal saving is good.
But if everyone does it, including business, then we get insufficient demand in the economy, and, unless the govt steps in and spends, a recession or worse.
Actually, I think the whole “labor is better than that” meme is very destructive for Labor.
Within the party, I’ve known people who’ve said “We shouldn’t be in government because we don’t deserve to be.”
I once read someone (?Donald Horne) talk about being in hospital during the 1975 crisis. Labor appartchiks were visiting him, saying that Fraser was throwing all sorts of dirt at Labor and how unfair it was, when they had just as much dirt on Fraser.
Horne (?) said he asked (in exasperation) at the time why Labor wasn’t using this information and was told, “Oh, we don’t do that.”
All very fine and pure, but the election was lost, and along with it Medibank.
Mind you, Sophie Mirabella causes me great amusement every election, when any misbehaviour of hers is countered with, “Well (insert Labor MP) has done exactly the same.”
I always say that I’m glad to see she turns to Labor when in need of moral guidance, whilst gently pointing out that some of us are able to work out right from wrong without looking to see how other people behave….
Dr John
Hey my name is Victoria and I stopped listening to Faine last year
Doyley
from memory, we had a similar dip in the polls around the time of the NSW election.
Zoomster
You continue to verbal me and attribute motives to me that are not true, but what’s new.
[so Ballieu cutting carbon emissions target doesn’t bother you?]
As the argument has been put to me so many times….”Just because I do not comment on something………”
I do not have the time to be on PB 24/7. My priority is to post on social and economic justice issues which would be obvious to just about anyone who reads PB regularly. I have said in the past here that AGW is the issue that matters.
[By voting Greens first and Liberals second, you implicitly supported Ballieu.]
No, I didn’t support B. How was I able to send a protest vote “a pox on both houses” if my vote was to be valid? I wanted the Greens to get my support while at the same time send a message to Labor that I did not support the direction in which it was going and not to take my vote for granted.
[and also, you seem to be admitting that you don’t care about the environment.]
See above.
And yet I have made numerous posts providing info and links to authoritative sources and facts about environmental issues.
[so you’re saying it’s OK for the Greens to scrutinise Labor but not for Labor to scrutinise the Greens?]
And yet I have posted on many occasions that I welcome impartial and reasoned debate and analysis about Greens policies.
I have lost count of the number of times I have posted links to Greens policies. What has been the response….no debate …ignored… ad hominems…because, well, “the Greens are irrelevant”.
It is in the interests of both political parties and the MSM that Greens policies do not get discussed in a rational and informed way.
[And if a political party pretends to be something they’re not or takes claim for the achievements of others (as the Greens often do when it comes to environmental initiatives) then they should expect these things to be pointed out.]
No time to address this fully..have to go….Only in your mind do the Greens pretend to be something they are not…they have a whole suite of policies….It is Labor that pretends to be something it is not 😉
Bemused
Yes. But… If the government talked about it. Introduced small schemes to encourage children and teenagers to save etc…
It would gain credit for increasing personal savings to a pre-Howard record
It would play to values of frugality and self-dependence
It would change the debate
[How did little johnnie Howard connect with voters or his treasurer Costello]
Except for 1996, Howard didn’t, really.
Re Costello, I think Howard bitterly resented a Lib Treasurer who made his horror performance as Fraser’s Treasurer look truly dreadful in comparison (btw, Howard’s made every treasurer from 1939 & many before look like legendary financial wizards.
Re “Connect with voters”; post 1996 … he lost the 2PP in 1998. He was losing 2001 until 9/11 and Tampa crisis (the latter based on Reith’s lie about Children Overboard & consequent witness information black-out). Even when we went to the polls in 2004, opPolls still had a 50/50 hung-parliament result (check out reporting of the immediate pre-polling day Newspoll); yet Latham’s rout was both personal and a punishment of Labor for appointing him leader.
It’s interesting to read post Election04 reports, esp from NewsLtd papers. Labor would be in the wilderness for at least 2 terms – exactly what was said of Libs after Keating’s surprise 1993 win – NOT ONE of which predictions proved true!
I’ve a sneaking suspicion that making fools of pollsters esp NewsPoll is an Australian National Game.
If you can handle the slight air of self-congratulation, Peter Beattie actually offers some very good advice to Federal labour here. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-26/peter-beattie-reflects-on-the-labor-brand/3913826?WT.svl=news4
Peg
We live in a democracy and you can vote however you like and others have no right to second guess your motives.
BTW You always articulate your point of view very thoughtfully.
Joe Hockey doesn’t seem to agree with Turnbull on a Sovereign Wealth Fund
[The Australian Greens have consistently called for Australia to set up a new sovereign wealth fund, to help pay for infrastructure projects. But Hockey rejected the idea.
“A new sovereign wealth fund for Australia is a ridiculously stupid idea for so long as we have taxes that are higher than many of our competitors, when we have net debt of A$140 billion, and for so long as we have a free and open economy,” he said.]
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/26/us-australia-economy-hockey-idUSBRE82P09T20120326
Bemused I look forward to my ongoing education despite my slide back to the dark side last Saturday 🙂
bluegreen
I think zoomster nailed a major factor. The era of easy credit. It all became so easy to get what you wanted “now”. In the late 1990’s I took out a $5,000 bank loan but as planned paid it back in 4 months. Then, unsolicited, from the bank (one of the big four) I received a letter offering an immediate pre approved $15,000 loan to spend on whatever I liked. They suggested a holiday amongst other things !! All I had to do was fill out the form. How’s that for a responsible lending policy ……….Not ?
By the way Peg I happen to agree with you.
I was stunned at the last election when I was kind of crying in my beer, talking to life-long friends, while mulling over things political, that they sheepishly admitted they had shifted their vote to the Greens. These, mind you, who had supported Labor as long as I can remember.
On top of this at the election gig I worked at, the Greens P vote doubled between 2007 and 2010. Such was the case, that S Smith would not be Defence Minister now without said preferences.
I just don’t agree with those in Labor who still think we can get and stay in power with 30% of the primary vote.
At some point a more formal association will need to be forged. This probably won’t happen if and until or when, Labor gets defeated at the polls. Too many in Labor still living not recognising the post industrial era we now live in.
There is, of course, the missing 8% or so of so-called Labor voters who have, for reasons I can’t fathom, parked their vote with the conservatives. Talk about sleeping with the game keeper!
It is interesting in the West’s LtothE page, apart from the usual in-house right wing hacks the West trundles out, to see so-called Labor voters bemoaning the fact that Labor somehow has moved away from its core values.
This is not a good scenario. Bleeding to the right and bleeding to the left.
The bleeders to the right keep harping upon the “cost of electricity, health and education” as an issue and they seem incapable to sorting out who is responsible for what. But they are sullen.
And, despite all, and regardless of what you call it, many just cannot see what the Carbon Tax is all about whether delivered by a “lie” or convoluted words.
The punters see it as a tax that they are not convinced will change the environment for the better and will add to their already increased power costs. The downside for them is all they see.
I know, I know, governments have to make tough decision for the good of all and sometimes the benefits are not immediate. But, as far as the Carbon Tax is concerned, politically, it seems all negative for Labor at the moment.
Likely 5 years down the track, everyone will be preening themselves for Australia being part of such a far ranging decision, but at the moment, there is little of no kudos for Labor in it.
I guess that is why, sometimes, the party has to take a hit for the nation’s good.
I might add the same sort to thinking used to be rife for NBN, but this is much more muted now.
bluegreen @ 287
Well it is pushing personal super hard.
But you, as usual, make some good points.
Your posts are among the most analytical and interesting on PB. I always read them.
Zoomster I was being sarcastic in my comments re Baillieu, I remember the destruction wrought by Kennett especially as I fight over my electricity bill which soared (rose 10X) once smart meter was installed. Didn’t think Baillieu stood for anything, actually
Dubbs – I was shocked when FJs closed but raced in to stock up on belts to keep my jeans up and still wear their woollen jumpers which have [accidentally] survived a normal wash very well. They had suffered a fashion bypass toward the end. I hope your wife is doing OK
[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk Close
Newspoll after NSW election saw a 6pt jump in Coalition 2PP; then it fell a net 3 points in next 3 polls: Today, after QLD, a 4 pt jump…
10:41 AM – 27 Mar 12]
Koukoulas, along with Aristotle, help keep me sane with snippets like that.
At the last Victorian election many of the Green campaign workers were former Labor supporters disgusted at Labors lurch to the right and failure to work toward mitigating effects of global warming, even though we were in a 13 year drought at the time, with severe water restrictions in Melbourne
The following has to be one of the more funny headlines following last Saturday’s result
“Palaszezuk has the numbers”
At the moment I think everyone needs a break from politics. Learn something new about history by watching a BBC video about The Geeks That Defeated Hitler on The Daily Derp
(NOTE: This is NOT a Downfall parody).
[There has been much written about the cracking of the Enigma code, but not much about what the Germans replaced Enigma with. The device, the Lorenz SZ40/42 machine produced a far more complex method of encoding messages.
This is the story of how a mathematician, Bill Tutte, and an engineer, Tommy Flowers, finally cracked the code and how that contributed enormously to the defeat of the Nazi war machine.
It is also the story of the building of the world’s first computer, Colossus, which was used to decipher the codes created by the SZ40/42. Of course the development of a programmbale machine to process information had enormous implications on the final years of the 20th Century.
For the most part this story remained untold until recently. ]