Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Hi Victoria re 168

    Is there any public indication that Gillard would now step aside after the past month? Her personal determination and steadiness are quite obvious, and from a strategic angle, could Labor really now afford another leadership debate, even if said to be voluntary?

    F

  2. Advantages & disadvantages of a change to Shorten!
    Advantage: He’s a far better communicator than Gillard
    Disadvantages: Another Victorian ex-union leader(does that help Labor in NSW & QLD), his ties to the Australian Workers Union.

    Federal Labor is screwed, they won’t win the next election – their best hope is to try and minimise the expected losses in late 2013.

  4. Victoria. You enigmatically suggested someone other than Billie the kid. I simply analysed the contenders. How is that reambling.
    .
    Say who you mean – Not Billie and male (Simon, Stevie, Greg, or Mark?). I cannot think of any other contenders. Please, please, please not Tony Burke.

    Now IF he were in the lower house Doogie might stand a chance of saving the furniture

  5. There was a great profile on the attorney presenting the case for the US Government on Obamacare last week on NPR on ABC Newsradio. Never raises his voice, just calmly presents the argument.

    Got the gig as attorney by doing, among other things, pro bono death sentence appeals to the Supreme Court which would be pressured work.

  6. Daretotread: I agree that Rudd is their only option, especially if they want to avoid a complete bloodbath in QLD.

  7. http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/mar/26/news-corp-ondigital-paytv-panorama

    For you Poroti and for Hallelujah getting all that much closer

    Vote 1 Maxine, I agree to change leaders before the election would be disastrous , but can see where Victoria is coming from, I read older white males are the most against Julia Gillard because she is a woman, but still think she has the best chance of winning, as I truly believe when the time come in 18 months time and voters finally engage they will look at TA as a potential PM and draw back in horror

  8. OzPol at 146,

    I don’t disagree with what you say about our viulnerabliity to Global trends, or that the structural financial ‘shock-absorbers’ introcuced by Labor have managed to ward-off a great deal of damage recently.

    I just don’t think we even in sight of the end of the China’s latest Long March.

    Of course we must plan for the future, and Swan and the labor Party seem to be doing just that.

    The MRRT in many ways is a stroke of genius. No wonder business in general quietly supports it. Who wouldn’t? Our current total super find balances out at about $1.4 Trillion (about the same as the US annual federal budget). It would have been over $2 Trillion by now if Howie hadn’t sabotaged the Keating plan to raise compulsory employer contributions to 15% of gross wages in the early 2000’s. Instead, in what must now be seen as on of the greatest acts of financial vandalism this country has ever seen, he stopped the compulsory contributions clock at 9% for a decade, and bought the punters-off with a handful of shiny tax-cut dollars (which they dutifully spent on pokies, smokes and booze or whatever).

    Labor is now raising the level again (over the next few years) to 12%, thence (hopefully) to the 15% Keating proposed.

    And you’re right: This massive find provides a massive economic stability and security package. It’s a form of National Savings or National Sovereign Wealth Fund that in dire times can be used to put a little muscle on the fiscal sinews and make raising by our businesses of necessary capital that much easier. It sets-us up to weather the storm, far better than we would otherwise.

  9. Fil R

    JG will not step aside anytime soon, nor should she. Doing anything now would be a disaster for the govt. i am saying that i believe the govt has a strategy for the later half of the year, and they will assess their chances with JG at the helm thereafter. I believe at present QLD and NSW are not flexible. Time will tell.

  11. One thing I do notice when ALP has a bad poll the usual suspects flock on here predicting doom and gloom, but if it a better poll we don’t see hide or hair of them. Notice the media isn’t talking about JG increasing her PPM again nor the usual suspects here commenting on it

  12. [ Itep
    JG is a smart woman. She will know when the right time to step aside will be. I have some ideas who i believe will be her successor ]

    Victoria – Get off leadership you hicks. Don’t underestimate our great PM.

  13. zoomster
    [Peg must be so proud she voted for the Libs and the Greens at the last state election.]
    Your personal antipathy towards me comes through as u never let pass an opportunity to smear me personally in your own typical smarmy and sarcastic manner.

    Firstly, as I have responded to u on a number of occasions, in my seat of Forest Hill the Greens preferences were not even distributed. Having an intimate knowledge of my electorate and possessing info from my contacts within local alp party branch and local staffers it was obvious that Kirstie Marshall was going to be blown away. Vic ALP knew this as evidenced by the withdrawal of resources from KM’s campaign.

    Secondly, as I have posted on a number of occasions, I supported and then joined the Greens Party because it advocates on the social and economic justice issues that are important to me. I am what is known as a “Tampa Green”.

    I voted #1Greens followed by Sex Party, Libs, Lab…and will do it again in a State election if the circumstances warrant.

    http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/state2010resultForestHillDistrict.html

  14. I have an important and demanding job and unfortunately don’t have time to read every last posting on this forum. So apologies if I have repeated some of what has been said above (including, perhaps, by the esteemed Dr Bonham).

    Firstly, I do not buy any of this nonsense in the media about the Labor “brand”. Australians are generally sufficiently intelligent and informed to vote quite differently for the same party at different levels of goverment: take for instance the anhillation of Gough Whitlam’s Federal ALP in 1975 and 1977 but, at the same time, the emergence of a Neville Wran-led ALP that was so dominant that successive opposition leaders lost their own relatively safe seats in the next two elections.

    What Australian voters have shown themselves to be continually insistent upon is credible leadership. They have consistently shown that they will not vote into power an opposition leader who they do not find credible: who they cannot comfortably imagine performing the role of PM/Premier. We have seen time and again that even the combination of an “It’s Time” factor and a government which has made a lot of extremely unpopular decisions will not necessarily sweep an opposition into office.

    Think Anna Bligh’s remarkable victory over Springborg in 2009, or Morris Iemma’s even more remarkable victory over Peter Debnam in 2007. Or Mark Latham’s loss in 2004. Or the rise and fall of party leaders like John Brogden, Simon Crean, Troy Buswell, Brendan Nelson and etc.

    I personally believe that Australians, egged on by our ridiculous parliamentary press galleries, place more emphasis on the role of political leaders than they should.

    But this is what they do.

    The Queensland LNP have recognised the importance of leadership: so much so that they selected a party leader from outside their parliamentary ranks. Newman is easily the most credible leader that the conservative side of politics have had in any part of the country since John Howard. Already there will be strategists somewhere thinking about the idea of parachuting him into Federal politics. The media gasbagging about the Queensland election results has quite unfairly downplayed the role of Newman in favour of this stupid meme about the “Labor brand” being “on the nose” (among voters who are typically have been said to have been “waiting with baseball bats”: the Press Council should institute a permanent ban on some political cliches. Please.) One of the main reasons Newman won so well is because he is seen as being a quality person and a quality political leader. As to some extent was Bligh, but Queenslanders were so ready for a change and the only thing that was likely to stop them was a concern about the quality of the opposition leadership (which is why the ALP’s Ashgrove focus was not as misguided as some people say).

    Gillard’s leadership has been a bit shaky since she assumed office, but – unlike all the failed opposition leaders discussed above – she is the incumbent and I think she has gained quite a lot of kudos among even those voters angry about what she has done in office simply by dint of her hanging in there and withstanding everything that is thrown at her. They won’t tell pollsters about this, but I reckon that her toughness is making an impact.

    And she’s lucky to be up against Abbott, who remains a political leader who is not even slightly credible. I found it extraordinary that he was unable to do better in the 2010 election, following the leadership coup, the destructive leaks, Labor’s unbelievably appalling campaign and just the sheer lingering presence of Rudd as the “people’s prime minister”. I am extremely sceptical that, given another chance, he will do even as well as he did in 2010.

    I note on here a large body of belief that Turnbull will depose Abbott at some point soon. Don’t count on it: my inside mail is that he remains light years away from getting the numbers. Hockey is more of a chance that Turnbull, and would provide some of the economic credibility that Abbott totally lacks (well, at least, Hockey would seem economically credible to people not paying too much attention). But Hockey is a lightweight, whereas Abbott is a much heavier hitter in the political arena. But he simply isn’t credible.

    Perhaps they really ought to have a good hard look at Campbell Newman. At least they won’t need to bother themselves about finding him a parliamentary seat before the election.

    Otherwise, they are stuck with Abbott. I continue to believe that, on election day, the voters will once again decide that they won’t have him and will vote, albeit reluctantly, for Gillard once more. And I would hope that this will cause some sort of mini-revolution within the Libs that pushes the far right loonies out of the party’s driving seat. But I’m not holding my breath for that bit.

  17. I encourage everyone to look at the recent RBA charts

    Household Sector http://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/household-sector.html
    -look at the savings rates (at levels of the mid-80s)
    -Net worth of households (has been declining since 07 after rising for previous decade)

    And also the massive decline in credit in business and households. http://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/credit-money.html

    We have a totally new economy. And we need a totally new steady and frugal style of government to match it.

  19. mari
    [One thing I do notice when ALP has a bad poll the usual suspects flock on here ]
    Calliphora vicini can detect possible dead meat from several kilometers away.

  21. They will swap to Combet…not sure how much it will help..there’ll be a lot of seats lost in Vic too..I can think of 5 that ALP is no chance just off top of my head

  22. bluegreen

    You mean a style of govt that puts a 1.5 levy on three thousand businesses to fund a PPL scheme and live in nannies.?

  23. Gillard at the weekend said yesterday that she wasn’t listening to the voters of QLD and message they sent at the state election.

    Isn’t this part of her problem? She just refuses to listen to the public?

  24. Hi Victoria re

    i am saying that i believe the govt has a strategy for the later half of the year, and they will assess their chances with JG at the helm thereafter

    Before the recent leadership vote I also thought the same, but I can’t see that happening now. Gillard won the vote very well, and I think for Labor to change after that, would be seen as NSW gone crazy – however, stranger things have happned, and even worked.

    F

  25. Victoria @ 155

    As much as it reviles me, In order for Labor to have success in the short term in these areas, they need to have a male leader.

    I disagree profoundly. The leaders sex has nothing to do with it. It is all about public perception of the leader, be they male or female.

  27. Labor should come out on TV and say from today forward they will be the ones calling the shots and setting the policy agenda, not the Greens and Bob Brown.

    Of course they won’t because they are terrified of Bobby boy pulling the plug on them..

  31. Victoria,

    Clive Palmer has nothing to do with anything with the election result. This was all Anna Bligh, Gillard and the Labor Party as a whole.

  32. peg

    I notice that, typical smarmy manner or not, you don’t deny that I’m right about your voting pattern.

    By voting Greens first and Liberals second, you implicitly supported Ballieu.

    You don’t seem to be backing away from that, which is fine, but I don’t see why you should take someone stating those facts as a personal attack.

    Saying, for example, that someone has blonde hair and blue eyes (when they do) is not a personal attack.

    Saying that someone voted Greens first and Liberals second at the last state election is also not a personal attack. It’s either true or it isn’t. If it’s true, then it’s a statement of fact.

    As you admit that that’s the way you voted, then it’s a statement of fact.

    As you also say that you’d vote that way again, then it’s not something you’re ashamed of.

    Fine. So how is me pointing out a fact you’re not ashamed of offensive?

  34. [victoria
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 10:32 am | Permalink
    bg

    I dont want a Howard style govt]

    I define that as a government that gives a little new handout every budget time, whether it be an increased family payment, tax cut or baby bonus/

  35. The elephant in the room Bluegreen – and I surprised given your thoughtful comments you have not given this point much recognition – is that Labor governs from day to day in survival mode.

    We all tend to have short memories. For the first 6 months of government Labor had a hostile Senate with a paper thin majority in the HoR cobbled together with some good and indifferent support.

    After this, to keep faith with Labor policies partly left in disarray by Rudd, Gillard has had to patch up and make the best of it.

    I would suggest that fighting from this kind of corner does not give the government room for the “Grand Leadership Vision” stuff as if the majority were 20. Rudd had this and essentially threw it away.

    On top of this, of course, is the vicious campaign (and it has been effective) to denigrate all that Gillard has tried to do. It has become very personal – much to the shame of the political elite.

    I am also amused by some who come here and kind of say PBers are sort of hiding in some kind of detached world where they see only the things they want to and this is generally all good for Labor and all bad for the opposition.

    On the contrary, most individuals here, while they have ideals do not wear rose coloured glasses. Many of us come from eras where there have been long periods of conservative government and tend to see things over the longer haul.

    Nothing, but nothing, is certain in politics and for people to be making big predictions 18 month out from a scheduled election totally confounds me.

    How many times – I have lost count – we have seen Labor well in front in the polls (and I don’t mean Queenland numbers) only to see this lead whittled away in just 4 weeks before an election?

    I remember the glee in the OO as a lead held by Labor – was it as much as 5%? – whittled down to produce a conservative win and this was during the election campaign.

    It was not so long ago that Big Kimbo had the election in the bag. Why did he lose? And then there was Keating’s famous win – all within a few weeks of the election – not a year and a half out.

  36. peg

    and also, you seem to be admitting that you don’t care about the environment.

    Which is also fine, but then you should also accept that those of us who do are going to be a bit upset with you for that.

  37. bluegreen
    Thanks for those links. I’ve wondered how much of the pessimism comes from people not having the value of their house going up the way it did during alot of the JWH years. Then as now they could struggle with a mortgage but back then they could still feel “rich” because of how much the value of the house had gone up.

  38. bemused

    [I disagree profoundly. The leaders sex has nothing to do with it. It is all about public perception of the leader, be they male or female.]

    I agree with you. It isn’t gender that is the problem it is exactly what you said perception.

  39. [People are sick of smick polished, besuited (or dollied up) young thirty somethings who have never had a blistered hand form work, never struggled to pay the electricity bill (except as a student when daddy would help out), never had to choose between cat food or bread, never had to put off going to the Dr because you do not have $70 to pay), never had to ring the electricity or phone company and get an extension, never had to tell staff that they must wait for wages – or tell a staff member they must go because there is no more money, never had to live with tooth decay because they do not have $1500 for root canal. Never HAS to visit St Vinnies for clothing (rather than it being a trendy outing).]

    Oh FFS DTT, this sounds like your basic common or garden Tory candidate. Hell, it even describes ost of their leadership.

    How many tmies had CanDo had to touch-up Vinnies for a new set of second hand threads?

    How often has The Indi Puff Adder blistered her hands with anything?

    How many times had Ted Faillyou passed-up a root canal job because the poor darling’s share portfolio had hit rock-botton and he couldn’t afford it.

    I’ve no doubt there’s probably quite a few used to telling their staff to wait for their wages or super contris to be made, but one wonders whether this is due to to a recessed economy or simple poor management of their businesses. They wouldn’t be the first, that’s for sure.

    And what about Wyatt Roy? You speak of insulated labor 30 somethings, well here’s a kid with all the life experiences of a teenaged clearasil addict bringing the wealth that experience to the Federal Parliament. Glory Hallelujah, we are delivered.

    Finally, as for putting-off going to the doctor because you don’t have $70 to pay, ever heard of Medicare and bulk-billing? This isn’t the ’60’s. No Australian has to do this. Bulk billing…bulk billing, remember? There’s a surgery in neraly every suburb in the entire country that does it.

    You really should get a grip on reality from the to time.

  40. [Personally I’ve always thought interviews needed subtitles when he was being interviewed. I have genuine difficulty understanding what he’s saying. I was the same with Pauline Hanson – she was hard to understand.]

    confession s – firstly, congrats on the new job. Hope it goes well and the post last night re your media training was appreciated.

    Barnaby is not stupid and he knows when to be coherent and when to play the idiot to his audience. I did forget to mention that my neighbour has been voting One Nation since the Pauline days. In fact, being a scrutineer on election day, I know full well exactly how many One Nation votes are cast in this village and surrounds and I can pinpoint everyone of them because there are so few left here now.

    The National Party people think Barnaby’s a joke, most of the time, but they are traditional Country Party/Nat voters and they are hard to change.

  41. I agree with bemused, the PM’s problem is not her gender. Its a failure to connect, her grating style and a lack of trust.

  43. It doesn’t matter that Gillard is popular in Victoria and South Australia – the federal election won’t be won & lost in the Southern states.
    QLD & NSW(and to a lesser extent WA) are the real problem areas for Labor, and Gillard is toxic in those areas.
    Queenslanders won’t forgive her for depriving their local boy of his job in June 2010 – even Craig Emerson admitted last night that the 2010 coup is still hurting the ALP in his state.

  45. The Indi Puff Adder lives in an electorate ranked amongst the bottom twenty for income levels and social disadvantage, yet spends most of her time bemoaning the lot of those on incomes of $120k plus.

    She’s an inner city, privately school educated lawyer representing an impoverished country seat.

  46. [Spruiking will help, but not in the sunshine state and parts of NSW, and WA. Support in VIC, SA and TAS will not be enough to get them over the line.]

    Victoria, you can’t please all the people. It would be crazy to not hold your nerve and jettison leader or policy to try and pick up what is essentially a red neck/ head in the sand vote, before the election.

    You would lose the wonderful record to stand on and look like you have no strong principles. Rather like the image that was portrayed for Labor, by the msm, at last the election.

  48. bg

    Labor introduced a PPL scheme and families with teenagers are getting increased family payments now. The baby bonus is still policy. Your point is?

  50. DavidWH

    How did little johnnie Howard connect with voters or his treasurer Costello. They were two of the most unsympathetic sounding and looking people and yet they led the party for eleven years. Sorry, but that does not wash with me

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