Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Anna Bligh’s hubby should just agree to whatever Newman says and then sit on his hands and do nothing. Make life as difficult as possible for the new environmental vandal Premier. :devil:

  2. [BTW Campbell has a point, why does QLD need a climate change department if Gillards great big carbon tax is apparantly going to fix all our climate change problems?]

    It probably is necessary for the Feds to deal with the climate change issue, centrally, because the clutz, fib, state governments obviously do not have the smarts to understand its implications.

  3. Smithe @ 1278;

    Pretty much what I was getting at. Sutchbury *must* have been briefed by the AFR/Fairfax and yet he still took the job as editor of the AFR on.

    Did he tell News before ‘jumping ship’? If he didn’t tell News before he left them does this suggest he may have had enough of the culture there? If so are there more like that aboard the lilting ship ‘News Ltd’?

  4. [In regards to NBN – I might have a chance to get FTTH as I have 3 Points of Interconnect ~30km away from me.]

    Zoidlord – Will you have to pay for the initial connection?

    Finns – great news re the Mandela Archives. Thanks for the link

  5. [zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 9:50 am | Permalink
    @Steve777/1284

    I disagree and raise you UK/Canada is not Australia.

    Also if you look at a number of Elections in AU including 2007 election shows that either party has a chance to come back.

    @BH/@Mari/etc

    In regards to NBN – I might have a chance to get FTTH as I have 3 Points of Interconnect ~30km away from me.]
    Fingers crossed for you, re NBN what area are you in ?

  6. [“In some circles, Newman’s actions would not be described as ‘brilliant’ but as ‘vindictive.’”]

    Actually it’s interesting that we learn of now Anna Blighs husbands involvement within government… a cushy, $220K per year job on a 3 year contract signed in December if you don’t mind(just before Labors anticipated annihilation) with a further option of another 2 years(thats 5 Year contract for the kids playing at home) and some massive payout if his job is terminated early.

    It shows you just the sort of campaign that Campbell Newman and the LNP ran in QLD that at no point during the election campaign did they even mention this… they choose to run a positive campaign while Bligh rolled around in the mud.

    This is the first I have heard about Blighs hubby having such a cushy job in QLD Government and I think Campbell’s pushing for an early retirement of one department head….

  7. @BH/1304,

    I believe if you sign up straight away – it’s free, however if you decide after its rolled out in you’re area – I do believe you have to pay for it.

  8. [BTW Campbell has a point, why does QLD need a climate change department if Gillards great big carbon tax is apparantly going to fix all our climate change problems?]

    Yes, he does have a point, but it would be wise for him not to ruin that point by white-anting carbon pricing.

    Of course, hubby can make a bad fist of dismantling his own schemes, so much so that it comes back to bite Newman badly.

    My impression of Can-Do Newman is that his military outlook on how governance works will bring him big trouble. He is a natural treaderer-onnnerer of toes.

  9. [“Anna Bligh’s hubby should just agree to whatever Newman says and then sit on his hands and do nothing. Make life as difficult as possible for the new environmental vandal Premier”]

    His contract will no doubt be null and void if he fails to perform to his jobs standard.

    I do love the squeeze the lemon approach by Campbell though…. don’t sack Blighs jobs for family scheme and have to payout a big lump sum…. squeeze them till they quit.

  10. whizzer

    howie sacked a third of his permanent heads upon gaining office

    rudd from memory sacked zero

    fatty has got rid of 5? so far

    so newman is just following fib S.O.P.

  11. [gordongraham @Thirdborn314 emails reveal they’ve been promoting high tech piracy in Australia in their bid to take over the pay tv industry
    29 minutes ago in reply to Thirdborn314]
    [Pollytics How much more evidence do we need before we can classify News Corp as an organised criminal outfit?
    29 minutes ago]
    [ abcmarkscott Huge AFR coverage of News Corp/payTV piracy story, including the release of thousands of emails for crowd sourcing bit.ly/Hg5vyf
    about 4 hours ago]

  12. Gee wizz

    [PaulBongiorno The Liberal premiers are busy dismantling expensive green direct action projects. A precedent for Tony?
    7 minutes ago]

  13. Newman on the ABC this morning sent a pretty clear message that electricity prices won’t be going up 50pc regardless of what the interim report recommends.

  14. [“So? If he’s on the point of quitting anyway why should he care?”]

    Financially he will care because his contract has a big payout if he is forced out early.

    After all the huffing and puffing from Bligh about Campbells family members it’s interesting to learn what fingers in the pie we are now seeing from the Bligh family

  15. Bouquets to BB!

    Stunning news in today’s Fin Review exclusive. Exclusive on very, very bad corporate behaviour by News Ltd, including in Australia. Yet to break to the MSM more generally, but the kaka will hit the fan big time.

    BB vindicated. You read it first in Bludger. Just as you read it first on Fukushima by way of Gus.

  16. I think we can say Newman has given Bligh and her spouse more respect than was given by Bligh to Newman and his spouse in recent months. Newman was very impressive on the ABC this morning and his challenge is to live up to the rhetoric.

  17. Mark Scott ‏ @abcmarkscott Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    Huge AFR coverage of News Corp/payTV piracy story, including the release of thousands of emails for crowd sourcing

    Tweet from Mark Scott I tweeted back hope ABC gets onto this, this is what 4 corners “used to do”, also hope ABC doesn’t bury the story

  18. GeeWizz,

    I think you’re being a bit harsh on Withers. He was a Public Servant long before Anna Bligh was even voted into Parliament and has a track record of serving governments from both sides of politics.

    I think people are arcing up at the way Newman has put this on Withers. He was smarmy about it. Had it been done quietly then its just the Government directing a public servant. Newman made this personal by effectively gloating about it.

    STOP THE GLOATS!

  19. I do wish they would stop calling drones ‘drones’ or even ‘spy planes’. They are remotely controlled killing machines. They are used routinely to kill at a distance including in other jurisdictions. There is absolutely no accountability for this activity. Should Australia allow these remotely controlled killing machines to be based on Australia will assume moral responsibility for any consequences. But:
    (1) Australia will not control these machines and what they do
    (2) the status of forces agreement is that Australia will not be able to put to trial any of those involved in remote killings, manslaughters, murders etc.

    What fool would agree to this state of affairs?

  20. Newman’s starting early with jobs for the boys, with key public service posts for a former Lib MP and for a son of former Lib leader Llew Edwards.

  21. [“So Campbell hasn’t learnt anything..

    Gee the public are dumb then.”]

    If Blighs hubby is sacked he will get a big payout. If he resigns early and breaks the contract his payout will be greatly reduced.

    So what they have learned is that they will need to force him out.

    BTW on todays Courier Fail there is an article about Anna Bligh quitting parliament early so she can get the $150K a year pension care of the QLD Taxpayer. This is because parliamentry pensions paid after they leave parliament is based on percentage of past earnings. Clearly she will make a lot less from being a opposition backbencher than as Premier and as a result has decided to cash in early despite her claims before the election she would serve full term “no matter what happens”.

  22. [BB vindicated. You read it first in Bludger. Just as you read it first on Fukushima by way of Gus.]

    It’s nice to be vindicated, but I can assure you all I am still just an ordinary person. I do not intend to quit my job. I do intend to still get up at 6am, and I will still take my dogs for a walk every day.

    I may pay off my credit card with my vindication winnings, may perhaps buy the wife a nice set of pearls (real one), and might set up a little trust fund for the grandkids… but otherwise it’ll be SNAFU for me.

  23. [“I think people are arcing up at the way Newman has put this on Withers. He was smarmy about it.”]

    Most QLD’ers didn’t even know Blighs hubby had a cushy government job at $220K a year.

    After all the whinging about Campbells in-laws do you really think this isn’t fair game now?

  24. [grantplant
    Posted Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 10:08 am | Permalink
    Mari @ 1299,

    Yes, of course. Am back here more permanently now. Was overseas for about 4 months last year.]

    OK keep an eye on PB when I finally stop having visitors in about 2 weeks time, hopefully we can arrange a meeting of PB in early May??? I go O/S towards end of May,
    Live in the beautiful Nambucca area

  25. @GeeWizz/1332

    The Difference being is that Cambells benefit themselves not the public.

    Bligh’s Husband is one person.

    How blind must one person be?

  26. [abcmarkscott Huge AFR coverage of News Corp/payTV piracy story, including the release of thousands of emails for crowd sourcing bit.ly/Hg5vyf
    about 4 hours ago]

    Mark Scott should have been doing his utmost to distance the ABC from the News Corp organisation all along. In the interests of the ABC being seen to be independent (as stipulated by the ABC Act), if nothing else. Remember, a prominent RW polemicist from News Corp, Janet Albrechtsen, sat as a Director of the ABC for five years. But rather than putting distance between the two rival organisations, we see News Limited papers featured every day on Delroy (‘What The Papers Say), and News Limited hacks such as Sava and Akerman guested regularly on their Insiders. As well as Shanahan brought in regularly to give his spin interpretation of Newspoll results as they come to hand. And poor old Fran Kelly – I sometimes think she prepares and presents her ‘Breakfast’ program (as of 2012 extended by a half-hour per day) with the OO open on the desk in front of her.

  27. I don’t know where you get the idea that every job is “cushy”.

    Anyway, comparing the job awarded to Greg Withers to the questions raised around Campbell’s family interests and developer influences is like comparing apples and oranges.

  28. Gusface

    Like Therese Rein did. When spouse becomes PM or Premier.

    It might not be fair, but it is in the interest of good governance.

  29. I see that the colourful Mr Newman has wasted no time surrounding himself with cronies. Wink, wink. Nudge, nudge.

    Did he promise that he would do this to the public, transparently, during the election campaign? Or was it a wink and a nod amongst his mates before the election?

    Running a council operation including semi-colourful extended family business arrangements and developers’s lobbyists doing their stuff out of your office and getting away with it is one thing.

    But will Mr Newman be able to make the jump to making same work at state level?

  30. I find it amazing but not surprising that people here are criticizing Newman for expecting a well paid senior public servant to carry out government policy. It’s actually rather amusing.

  31. Fin Crisp, a St Peter’s College boy who became a prominent political scientist and biographer of Ben Chifley, wrote a book called ‘Australian National Government’. Above the chapter on The Labour Party (Crisp always left the ‘u’ in Labour) he ran the following quote from a US historian which always seems relevant:

    [It has struggled with every handicap to which political parties are heir. It has been burdened with careerists, turncoats, hypocrites, outright scoundrels, stuffy functionaries devoid of sense and imagination, bellowing enemies of critical intelligence, irritatingly self-righteous clowns bent on enforcing suburban points of view, pussy-footers, demagogues, stooges for outside interest groups and interests, aged and decayed hacks and ordinary blatherskites. Every party falls heir to these. But it has outlived them all and still stands for something: it stands for a social democratic Australia. – C. Hartley Grattan, 1944.]

  32. cuppa

    the deefence is already running for Ltd News

    apparently the acts werent illegal under the law as it existeed at the time

    the worst that can happen is a few sacrifical lambs, a token fine and a grovelling apology

    🙁

  33. [I find it amazing but not surprising that people here are criticizing Newman for expecting a well paid senior public servant to carry out government policy. It’s actually rather amusing.]

    Nope, no problems. We have problems with him gloating about it. He’s enjoying too much and that smells like sore winner to me.

  34. DWH

    [I find it amazing but not surprising that people here are criticizing Newman for expecting a well paid senior public servant to carry out government policy.

    Quite right.

    [It’s actually rather amusing.]

    For a premier to go public with naming a public servant is the real bit of bastardry, IMHO. What sort of people management is that? Mr Newman is certainly not wasting any time demonstrating that he is a prick of a boss. But then, having dudded the proles, let the boss bastardry begin, right?

    Not amusing at all for the target and his colleagues.

  35. g

    I imagine that corporate lawyers of companies that were financially affected will be poring over the evidence.

    And this is that mob that a certain Mr Rudd wanted to give ABC o/s to?

  36. GeeWhizz

    [Most QLD’ers didn’t even know Blighs hubby had a cushy government job at $220K a year.]

    Well, I did, and I’m a Victorian with about zero interest in QLD politics.

    He had ‘a cushy government job’ before she was elected to Parliament, when she was made a Minister, at the last election and at this.

    Are you seriously telling me that QLDers were totally unaware of who their Premier was married to?

    I really find it hard to believe they were that ignorant.

    Oh, and the complaint isn’t with him being told to do something: the complaint is the way he was told

    Few public servants get their instructions via a press conference.

  37. What the spivs supporting Mr Newman fail to realise is something I pointed out before the election. Conflicts of interest are not only about substance. They are about perceptions of conflict of interest. Mr Newman has a track record of not understanding this at all. Having got away with this before the election, we can confidently expect that he will not be changing his spots.

    Hence the jobs for the mates start to his regime.

  38. [ Tricot
    Posted Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 9:41 am | Permalink
    And it has happened in the West

    Liberal party mouthpiece in the West and on Red Neck Radio, 6PR in Perth, has jumped ship in Tony Abbott.

    In an astounding piece – given his pedigree – under the heat “Newman triumph shows up Abbott’s inadequacy” he does his usual hatchet job on the PM but the interesting bit comes towards the end.]

    Looks like the howling starting to turn-in on itself. Always happens when they sense an easy kill.

    Wonder who the new Alpha Dog will be?

    Not Robb, surely? Da Poodle, maybe?

    Whoever pisses on Abbott first, I’d say.

  39. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 10:29 am | Permalink
    BB

    Is that why Shamas had a meltdown a few weeks back. He knew what was coming for his beloved boss?]
    Thats interesting isn’t it? Nothing has been said about DS since he disappeared!

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